Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View This week, the supply - demand structure of the iron ore market was adjusted, but the price remained in a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the shipment volume of mainstream mines remained at a relatively high level of 21.119 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 57.88%, showing a slight decline, indicating a slight tightening of domestic ore supply, while the supply of imported ore was still relatively abundant. On the demand side, the steel mills significantly increased their production cuts, with the national daily average hot metal output dropping to 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week, but the daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, reflecting that the spot circulation did not slow down significantly [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price During the week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose. On the first trading day of "Golden September", iron ore had a large decline, and then recovered the decline in the next four trading days. The weekly K - line of the main contract closed slightly up by 2 yuan/ton [2]. 1.2 Variety Market During the week, the I2601 contract of iron ore opened at 787 yuan/ton, closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 796.5 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 761.0 yuan/ton. The entire variety contract was in a volatile and slightly stronger state, with a large amplitude between the minimum and maximum prices. The trading volume and open interest increased further week - on - week compared to the previous week [4]. 1.3 Related Market From the observation of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore option market, for the I2510 option contract, the exercise price was between 800 and 880 points. The call option with the largest trading volume and open interest was at 820 points, and the put option's trading volume and open interest were concentrated in the 780 - point put contract. This shows that iron ore market traders are more optimistic about the price of 820 points for calls and 780 points for puts [5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market The total global iron ore shipment volume was 35.5677 million tons, an increase of 2.4093 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia was 18.9459 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 502,400 tons, and the shipment volume from other regions increased by 992,200 tons to 6.5463 million tons. As of September 5, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 144.2572 million tons, an increase of 377,000 tons from the previous week. The total imported inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 673,200 tons week - on - week, and the inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, an increase of 1.43 days week - on - week. The national daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons from the previous week. Affected by the tightening of environmental protection policies in the northern region, the production cut of steel mills was the largest in the past two months. At the same time, the output of some steel mills also decreased due to equipment maintenance and raw material supply problems [6]. 2.2 Basis Data According to Wind data, the spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis between Tianjin fine ore (61.5%) and the futures main contract was 10.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts According to the data of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, there were 1,900 registered warehouse receipts of iron ore this week, the same as the previous week [7]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News The industrial utilization rate of domestic miners decreased by 2.10% week - on - week to 60.55%, and the daily average output of iron concentrate decreased by 13,300 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The daily K - line of the main I2601 contract of iron ore is running above the middle track of the BOLL, indicating a bullish state [8]. 4. Market Outlook This week, the iron ore market showed a volatile upward trend, with both futures and spot prices strengthening simultaneously. The tight balance of supply and demand in the fundamentals supports the price, but there is an increasing supply - side pressure and demand - side resilience. Technically, it shows a short - term strength, but the risk of over - bought correction should be vigilant. The macro - economic easing expectation and the steel mills' replenishment demand are the main driving forces, while the high port inventory and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation are potential constraints [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.00 | -16.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 489,437 | -39554↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 29 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25799 | -636↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,400.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 100.85 | -2.44↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 843 | -4↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 826 | -5↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 718 | -4↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 40 | +11↑ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Middle - East situation is tense as on June 14, two refineries in Iran's southern Bushehr province were attacked by Israel, the first direct strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by Israel. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have declined this period, while domestic port inventories have increased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and the daily average hot metal output have continued to decline, weakening the support for iron ore demand. However, the tense Middle - East situation makes the market worry that Iran's iron ore production may be affected, which supports the short - term market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 704.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 685,492 hands, down 10,148 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 37,842 hands, down 7,590 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 2,700 hands, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 94.2 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 782 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 677 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 56 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 94.60 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.56, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 782 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,352.70 million tons, down 157.70 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,517.50 million tons, down 156.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 13,933.14 million tons, up 106.45 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,798.68 million tons, up 108.50 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of iron ore is 9,813.10 million tons, down 500.90 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 38.98 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 61.42%, up 0.23%. The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines is 58.33 million tons, down 4.46 million tons. The BDI index is 1,968.00, up 64.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 26.26 dollars/ton, up 1.45 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.97 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.56%, down 0.07%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.96%, down 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.33%, up 1.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.51% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,352.7 million tons, down 157.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,842.1 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume of 2,059.3 million tons, down 110.6 million tons (1,797.1 million tons to China, down 94.9 million tons) and Brazil's shipment volume of 782.8 million tons, up 33.2 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.5 million tons, down 156.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,384.5 million tons, down 224.8 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,219.0 million tons, down 164.6 million tons [2].

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].