1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. Macroeconomically, US President Trump is considering sending another US aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East for possible military action if negotiations with Iran fail. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, and molten iron production remained below 2.3 million tons. Iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, steel mills have less restocking demand. Recently, Australia was affected by a hurricane, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. At the same time, the central bank's report reiterated moderate easing, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 762.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 506,957 hands, down 6,983 hands; the I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,383 hands, down 5,244 hands; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 2,900 hands, unchanged; the Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 99.9 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 812 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 49 yuan, up 2 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 100.20 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.23, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 801 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 2,535.30 million tons, down 559.30 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,455.60 million tons, down 213.60 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,914.68 million tons, up 156.42 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 10,316.64 million tons, up 348.05 million tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 32 days, up 3 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.51 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.27%, down 1.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.07 million tons, down 2.71 million tons; the BDI index is 1,882.00, down 13.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.944 US dollars/ton, down 0.12 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.55%, up 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.71%, up 0.26%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.22%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.80%, down 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.68%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.12%, down 0.47% [2] Industry News - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 2,535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 1,948.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.6 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,361.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123.4 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,264.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24.7 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,279.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 540.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,097.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 521.6 million tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 669.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 million tons [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：市场情绪降温，刚需有所松动 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内窄幅震荡，收于 786.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价上涨 2.5 元/吨，涨幅+0.32%，成交 19.7 万手，持仓量 56.6 万手，沉淀资金 98.02 亿。期货盘面关注下方 780 支撑附近进一步测试， 短期此支撑附近略显抗跌。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 795 涨+1，超特粉 674 涨 +1，掉期主力 103.4(+0.1)美元/吨。现货小幅反弹、掉期价格止跌。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 830.2 元/吨，基差 43.7 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12.5 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，短期下探至支撑附近，略显止跌，继续关注支撑附近进 一步测试。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比减量，澳巴环比减量较为明显，非主流国家环比增加;本 期到港环比下滑，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期;需求端，铁水产量环比下 滑，烧结粉矿日耗环比减量，烧结 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.50 | +2.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 566,469 | -8780↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14751 | -3102↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.55 | +0.36↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | +2↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 841 | 0.00 | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 751 | 0.00 I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.20 | -0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved down on Tuesday. With the current decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, a slight reduction in the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, molten iron production remaining below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reaching a new high, the port continues the inventory accumulation trend, and the spot resources are relatively abundant. Additionally, the first shipment of 200,000 tons of iron ore from Simandou arrived at China Baowu Magang, putting short - term pressure on ore prices. The technical analysis of the I2605 contract shows that the 1 - hour MACD indicator has DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating and bearish, and risk control should be noted. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 789.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 586,412 lots, down 29,929 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,122 lots, up 5,773 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's I warehouse receipts are 1,500 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote as of 15:00 is 104 US dollars/ton, down 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 845 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 837 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 755 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 48 yuan, down 5 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.45 US dollars/ton, down 1.70 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.11, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 841 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. [2] 3.3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 tons, down 251.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,897.70 tons, down 117.30 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 tons, up 244.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 tons, up 0.81 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 tons, down 0.49 tons. The BDI index is 1,650, up 83. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.72 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.63%, up 0.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.03%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.15%, up 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 25.20%, up 0.79%. [2] 3.6. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradual strengthening. The futures contract presents a back structure and positive basis, with the futures price at a discount, resulting in a short - term resonance between the futures and the spot market [1][5]. - The iron ore price is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January, the recovery of molten iron, and pre - holiday restocking, but attention should be paid to the significant fluctuations in the sentiment of the commodity market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and strengthened slightly during the day, closing at 797 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 195,000 lots, the open interest increased by 25,000 lots to 619,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.85 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a slightly strong oscillating state [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot goods, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 808 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 685 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.4 (+0.95) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a strong upward breakthrough, and the spot market oscillated slightly stronger [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.8 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between Iron Ore 1 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between Iron Ore 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradual strengthening [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply side was relatively stable, with the year - end rush for volume completed. Attention should be paid to the weather disturbances in the first quarter [2]. - **Demand**: The sample molten iron production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate improved slightly. There was an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, and steel mills' restocking had gradually started, but the overall pace was still slow. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the holiday and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventories increased slightly month - on - month but were still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game for year - end restocking was intense, and the overall inventory pressure was building up [2]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in December reached 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations and market expectations. The core driver was the simultaneous recovery of both supply and demand. The price side showed that the anti - involution policy was crucial for price stabilization and recovery. The construction industry PMI also rebounded significantly due to weather and construction progress factors. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds and the rhythm of subsequent fiscal policies [4]. - **Overseas**: In the short term, the key focus was on the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman and the announcement time. Currently, Hassett had a high呼声. If the announcement time was advanced, it might be beneficial for non - ferrous metals, but there were still negative factors such as the adjustment of commodity index parameters and the increase of margins. The silver market was intertwined with long and short factors, and an overall low - buying strategy was maintained [4].

期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 铁矿石市场周报 库存增加&现货坚挺 铁矿期价重心上移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 「周度要点小结1」 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情回顾 1. 价格：截至12月31日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为789.5（+6.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉849（+12）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+212.6万吨。2025年12月22日-12月28日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3677.1万吨，环比增加 212.6万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量3059.6万吨，环比增加244.8万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量-62.4万吨。2025年12月22日-12月28日中国47港到港总量2727.8万吨，环比减少62.4万吨；中国45港到 港总量2601.4万吨，环比减少45.3万吨；北方六港到港总量1330.6万吨，环比增加74.2万吨。 ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View This week, the supply - demand structure of the iron ore market was adjusted, but the price remained in a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the shipment volume of mainstream mines remained at a relatively high level of 21.119 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 57.88%, showing a slight decline, indicating a slight tightening of domestic ore supply, while the supply of imported ore was still relatively abundant. On the demand side, the steel mills significantly increased their production cuts, with the national daily average hot metal output dropping to 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week, but the daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, reflecting that the spot circulation did not slow down significantly [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price During the week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose. On the first trading day of "Golden September", iron ore had a large decline, and then recovered the decline in the next four trading days. The weekly K - line of the main contract closed slightly up by 2 yuan/ton [2]. 1.2 Variety Market During the week, the I2601 contract of iron ore opened at 787 yuan/ton, closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 796.5 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 761.0 yuan/ton. The entire variety contract was in a volatile and slightly stronger state, with a large amplitude between the minimum and maximum prices. The trading volume and open interest increased further week - on - week compared to the previous week [4]. 1.3 Related Market From the observation of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore option market, for the I2510 option contract, the exercise price was between 800 and 880 points. The call option with the largest trading volume and open interest was at 820 points, and the put option's trading volume and open interest were concentrated in the 780 - point put contract. This shows that iron ore market traders are more optimistic about the price of 820 points for calls and 780 points for puts [5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market The total global iron ore shipment volume was 35.5677 million tons, an increase of 2.4093 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia was 18.9459 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 502,400 tons, and the shipment volume from other regions increased by 992,200 tons to 6.5463 million tons. As of September 5, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 144.2572 million tons, an increase of 377,000 tons from the previous week. The total imported inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 673,200 tons week - on - week, and the inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, an increase of 1.43 days week - on - week. The national daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons from the previous week. Affected by the tightening of environmental protection policies in the northern region, the production cut of steel mills was the largest in the past two months. At the same time, the output of some steel mills also decreased due to equipment maintenance and raw material supply problems [6]. 2.2 Basis Data According to Wind data, the spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis between Tianjin fine ore (61.5%) and the futures main contract was 10.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts According to the data of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, there were 1,900 registered warehouse receipts of iron ore this week, the same as the previous week [7]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News The industrial utilization rate of domestic miners decreased by 2.10% week - on - week to 60.55%, and the daily average output of iron concentrate decreased by 13,300 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The daily K - line of the main I2601 contract of iron ore is running above the middle track of the BOLL, indicating a bullish state [8]. 4. Market Outlook This week, the iron ore market showed a volatile upward trend, with both futures and spot prices strengthening simultaneously. The tight balance of supply and demand in the fundamentals supports the price, but there is an increasing supply - side pressure and demand - side resilience. Technically, it shows a short - term strength, but the risk of over - bought correction should be vigilant. The macro - economic easing expectation and the steel mills' replenishment demand are the main driving forces, while the high port inventory and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation are potential constraints [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 786.00 | -16.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 489,437 | -39554↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 29 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25799 | -636↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,400.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 100.85 | -2.44↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 843 | -4↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 826 | -5↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 718 | -4↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 40 | +11↑ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Middle - East situation is tense as on June 14, two refineries in Iran's southern Bushehr province were attacked by Israel, the first direct strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by Israel. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have declined this period, while domestic port inventories have increased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and the daily average hot metal output have continued to decline, weakening the support for iron ore demand. However, the tense Middle - East situation makes the market worry that Iran's iron ore production may be affected, which supports the short - term market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 704.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 685,492 hands, down 10,148 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 37,842 hands, down 7,590 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 2,700 hands, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 94.2 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 782 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 677 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 56 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 94.60 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.56, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 782 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,352.70 million tons, down 157.70 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,517.50 million tons, down 156.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 13,933.14 million tons, up 106.45 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,798.68 million tons, up 108.50 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of iron ore is 9,813.10 million tons, down 500.90 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 38.98 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 61.42%, up 0.23%. The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines is 58.33 million tons, down 4.46 million tons. The BDI index is 1,968.00, up 64.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 26.26 dollars/ton, up 1.45 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.97 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.56%, down 0.07%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.96%, down 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.33%, up 1.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.51% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,352.7 million tons, down 157.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,842.1 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume of 2,059.3 million tons, down 110.6 million tons (1,797.1 million tons to China, down 94.9 million tons) and Brazil's shipment volume of 782.8 million tons, up 33.2 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.5 million tons, down 156.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,384.5 million tons, down 224.8 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,219.0 million tons, down 164.6 million tons [2].