1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillation. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in molten iron production. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downside space [2][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 824 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 220,000 lots, the open interest was 446,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.083 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 810, and the short - term pressure above is around 830 [1] - Spot price: For port spot mainstream varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder was at 798 (unchanged), Super Special powder was at 677 (unchanged), and the main swap was at 108.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot price remained unchanged [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 831.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 7.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 33.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its possible impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The molten iron production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for the recovery of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was released. On the basis of continuing the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries was raised, and new indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy were added. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved up on Monday. Considering the macro - situation and supply - demand, with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and port arrivals, the decline in domestic port inventory, and the increase in blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output, the expected increase in demand still supports the iron ore price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green column turns red. The view is oscillating upward, with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 819.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the position volume is 441,933 lots, down 8,257 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 32.5 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 of the I contract is - 23,347 lots, down 4,711 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I is 3,400 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 108.3 dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.07 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 756 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 16 yuan, up 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 109.55 dollars/ton, up 1.15 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.5% Mac fine ore is 3.18, up 0.02. The estimated import cost is 870 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,144.30 million tons, up 95.50 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) is 2,383.10 million tons, up 66.10 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,814.18 million tons, down 133.14 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,034.06 million tons, up 104.96 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 million tons, down 1,475.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) is 19 days, down 2 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.85 million tons, up 1.04 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 64.29%, up 1.80%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.13 million tons, up 15.45 million tons. The BDI index is 2,056, down 1. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 30.65 dollars/ton, down 0.08 dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao is 11.71 dollars/ton, down 0.17 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.80%, up 1.44%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.55%, up 2.65%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 13.22%, down 2.78%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.24%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 21.54%, up 1.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 21.64%, up 0.02% [2] Industry News - From March 16th to March 22nd, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,144.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,559.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.0 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,995.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 120.4 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,634.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 563.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,383.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 million tons; at 45 Chinese ports was 2,271.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 million tons; at six northern ports was 1,050.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. The macro - situation shows that US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with NATO, and considered whether the US should withdraw from NATO. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. There is a shortage of mainstream high - grade resources at ports, while the tradable resources of other mainstream varieties are relatively sufficient. Most steel mills have gradually resumed production, increasing the demand for iron ore. Recently, the iron ore price has continued to rise due to positive factors, but now the futures price faces resistance around 820. With the high - level correction of international oil prices weakening the support, the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis with the green bar expanding. It is expected that the short - term price may fluctuate between 800 - 820. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; the position volume is 455,521 hands, down 6,207 hands. The 5 - 9 contract spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 23,032 hands, up 1,154 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 107.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.30 US dollars. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 756 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 29 yuan, up 12 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 110.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.15, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 872 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,048.80 tons, up 151.00 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,317.00 tons, down 380.50 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,947.32 tons, up 52.49 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,929.10 tons, down 82.47 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 21.00 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.81 tons, up 1.21 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 62.49%, up 1.59%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 47.68 tons, down 2.49 tons. The BDI index is 2,024.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 29.90 US dollars/ton, up 0.10 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 12.725 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.36%, up 0.67%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.90%, down 2.40%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.67%, up 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.18%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 18.81%, down 1.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.97%, down 1.57%. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,048.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 151.0 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,464.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,875.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.1 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,587.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.3 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 589.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons. - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,317.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380.5 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,215.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,230.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234.3 tons. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. Macroeconomically, US President Trump is considering sending another US aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East for possible military action if negotiations with Iran fail. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, and molten iron production remained below 2.3 million tons. Iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, steel mills have less restocking demand. Recently, Australia was affected by a hurricane, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. At the same time, the central bank's report reiterated moderate easing, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 762.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 506,957 hands, down 6,983 hands; the I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,383 hands, down 5,244 hands; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 2,900 hands, unchanged; the Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 99.9 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 812 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 49 yuan, up 2 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 100.20 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.23, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 801 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 2,535.30 million tons, down 559.30 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,455.60 million tons, down 213.60 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,914.68 million tons, up 156.42 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 10,316.64 million tons, up 348.05 million tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 32 days, up 3 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.51 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.27%, down 1.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.07 million tons, down 2.71 million tons; the BDI index is 1,882.00, down 13.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.944 US dollars/ton, down 0.12 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.55%, up 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.71%, up 0.26%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.22%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.80%, down 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.68%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.12%, down 0.47% [2] Industry News - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 2,535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 1,948.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.6 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,361.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123.4 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,264.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24.7 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,279.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 540.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,097.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 521.6 million tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 669.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore fundamentals are slightly weak, with supply shipments starting to decrease and demand weakening. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. However, due to the back structure + positive basis and the futures discount, the futures are slightly resistant to decline in the short - term, and the overall downward space of the market is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or +0.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 197,000 lots, the open interest was 566,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.802 billion yuan. The futures market will test the support around 780, and it shows some resistance to decline near this support in the short - term [1]. - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties rebounded slightly, and the swap price stopped falling. The PB powder at Qingdao Port rose by 1 to 795 yuan/ton, the Super Special powder rose by 1 to 674 yuan/ton, and the swap main contract was 103.4 (+0.1) US dollars/ton [1]. - The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder widened slightly. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and it showed signs of stopping decline after short - term decline to the support level [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, especially in Australia and Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are supply disturbance expectations due to weather. On the demand side, hot metal production, sinter powder daily consumption, and sinter weekly output all decreased, and the steel mills' profitability recovered, but the restocking enthusiasm was still weak. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Service retail sales increased by 5.5%, 1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail sales. The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth was 52%, a 5 - percentage - point increase. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading and emphasizes risk control. The port continues the inventory accumulation trend, with relatively sufficient spot resources. The record - high quarterly iron ore production and sales of Rio Tinto and the growth potential of Simandou may limit the upside of ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 786.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the position volume is 566,469 lots, down 8,780 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 14,751 lots, down 3,102 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 103.55 dollars/ton, up 0.36 dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 846 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore is 841 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port is 751 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract is 55 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 103.20 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port is 3.10, up 0.01. The estimated import cost is 832 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] 产业情况 - The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,929.80 million tons per week, down 251.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,897.70 million tons per week, down 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 17,288.70 million tons per week, up 244.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 9,262.22 million tons per week, up 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,965.00 million tons per month, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore are 22 days per week, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.95 million tons per week, up 0.81 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 43.44 million tons per week, down 0.49 million tons. The BDI index is 1,803.00, up 74.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.95 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars; from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.55 dollars/ton, up 0.06 dollars [2] 下游情况 - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.82% per week, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.46% per week, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 million tons per month, down 169 million tons [2] 期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.78% per day, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.05% per day, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.66% per day, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.54% per day, up 1.48% [2] 行业消息 - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. Mysteel's new - caliber statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 3,088.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.05 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder is 115.99 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.63, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved down on Tuesday. With the current decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, a slight reduction in the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, molten iron production remaining below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reaching a new high, the port continues the inventory accumulation trend, and the spot resources are relatively abundant. Additionally, the first shipment of 200,000 tons of iron ore from Simandou arrived at China Baowu Magang, putting short - term pressure on ore prices. The technical analysis of the I2605 contract shows that the 1 - hour MACD indicator has DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating and bearish, and risk control should be noted. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 789.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 586,412 lots, down 29,929 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,122 lots, up 5,773 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's I warehouse receipts are 1,500 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote as of 15:00 is 104 US dollars/ton, down 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 845 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 837 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 755 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 48 yuan, down 5 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.45 US dollars/ton, down 1.70 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.11, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 841 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. [2] 3.3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 tons, down 251.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,897.70 tons, down 117.30 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 tons, up 244.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 tons, up 0.81 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 tons, down 0.49 tons. The BDI index is 1,650, up 83. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.72 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.63%, up 0.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.03%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.15%, up 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 25.20%, up 0.79%. [2] 3.6. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradual strengthening. The futures contract presents a back structure and positive basis, with the futures price at a discount, resulting in a short - term resonance between the futures and the spot market [1][5]. - The iron ore price is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January, the recovery of molten iron, and pre - holiday restocking, but attention should be paid to the significant fluctuations in the sentiment of the commodity market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and strengthened slightly during the day, closing at 797 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 195,000 lots, the open interest increased by 25,000 lots to 619,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.85 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a slightly strong oscillating state [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot goods, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 808 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 685 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.4 (+0.95) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a strong upward breakthrough, and the spot market oscillated slightly stronger [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.8 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between Iron Ore 1 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between Iron Ore 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradual strengthening [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply side was relatively stable, with the year - end rush for volume completed. Attention should be paid to the weather disturbances in the first quarter [2]. - **Demand**: The sample molten iron production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate improved slightly. There was an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, and steel mills' restocking had gradually started, but the overall pace was still slow. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the holiday and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventories increased slightly month - on - month but were still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game for year - end restocking was intense, and the overall inventory pressure was building up [2]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in December reached 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, significantly exceeding seasonal expectations and market expectations. The core driver was the simultaneous recovery of both supply and demand. The price side showed that the anti - involution policy was crucial for price stabilization and recovery. The construction industry PMI also rebounded significantly due to weather and construction progress factors. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds and the rhythm of subsequent fiscal policies [4]. - **Overseas**: In the short term, the key focus was on the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman and the announcement time. Currently, Hassett had a high呼声. If the announcement time was advanced, it might be beneficial for non - ferrous metals, but there were still negative factors such as the adjustment of commodity index parameters and the increase of margins. The silver market was intertwined with long and short factors, and an overall low - buying strategy was maintained [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions have listed tasks for 2026, and more incremental policies will be introduced. Industrially, at the end of the year, there are more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills, molten iron production is running at a low level, port inventories continue to increase, but factory inventories are low, and there is an expectation of winter storage in the future. The firm spot price of iron ore supports the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions on the I2605 contract on pullbacks, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control. [7] - Due to the continuous increase in port inventories but low factory inventories, there is an expectation of stockpiling in the future, and the spot price of iron ore is firm. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract on pullbacks. [55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on December 31, the price of the main iron ore contract was 789.5 (+6.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 849 (+12) yuan/dry ton. [5] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons. [5] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 27.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.624 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.014 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.453 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.306 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.742 million tons. [5] - The daily average molten iron production was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. [5] - As of December 26, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.239 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.8393 million tons. [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points. [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. Some participants said that according to their economic outlook, after the interest rate cut at this meeting, the target interest rate range may need to remain unchanged for some time. Domestically, in December, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and all three indexes rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. [7] - Supply - demand aspect: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this period, the arrival volume declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills continued to decline, the molten iron production remained around 2.25 million tons per week, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. [7] - Technical aspect: The I2605 iron ore contract fluctuated strongly, the center of the daily K - line moved up, and the moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 - axis, and the red bars were stable. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2605 contract was weaker than the I2609 contract. On the 31st, the price difference was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton. [12] - On December 31, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,300 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18,666 lots, an increase of 15,554 lots compared with the previous week. [19] - On December 31, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 31st, the basis was 59 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 27.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.624 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.014 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.453 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.306 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.742 million tons. [28] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2876 million tons, an increase of 0.0053 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 71.7426 million tons, an increase of 2.8265 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 61.1856 million tons, a decrease of 0.935 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 107.8161 million tons, an increase of 3.0495 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8004 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0051 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.64 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 days. [33] - As of December 31, the average available inventory days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day. On December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877, a week - on - week decrease of 146. [38] - According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 0.769 million tons from 111.309 million tons in October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from the previous period; the daily average output of refined powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons. [41] - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic iron mines was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3%. [44] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. In November 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.98 million tons, an increase of 0.198 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decrease to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. [47] - On December 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 million tons. [50] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the continuous increase in port inventories but low factory inventories, there is an expectation of stockpiling in the future, and the spot price of iron ore is firm. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract on pullbacks. [55]

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View This week, the supply - demand structure of the iron ore market was adjusted, but the price remained in a volatile pattern. On the supply side, the shipment volume of mainstream mines remained at a relatively high level of 21.119 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 57.88%, showing a slight decline, indicating a slight tightening of domestic ore supply, while the supply of imported ore was still relatively abundant. On the demand side, the steel mills significantly increased their production cuts, with the national daily average hot metal output dropping to 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week, but the daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, reflecting that the spot circulation did not slow down significantly [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price During the week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose. On the first trading day of "Golden September", iron ore had a large decline, and then recovered the decline in the next four trading days. The weekly K - line of the main contract closed slightly up by 2 yuan/ton [2]. 1.2 Variety Market During the week, the I2601 contract of iron ore opened at 787 yuan/ton, closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 796.5 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 761.0 yuan/ton. The entire variety contract was in a volatile and slightly stronger state, with a large amplitude between the minimum and maximum prices. The trading volume and open interest increased further week - on - week compared to the previous week [4]. 1.3 Related Market From the observation of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore option market, for the I2510 option contract, the exercise price was between 800 and 880 points. The call option with the largest trading volume and open interest was at 820 points, and the put option's trading volume and open interest were concentrated in the 780 - point put contract. This shows that iron ore market traders are more optimistic about the price of 820 points for calls and 780 points for puts [5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market The total global iron ore shipment volume was 35.5677 million tons, an increase of 2.4093 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia was 18.9459 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 502,400 tons, and the shipment volume from other regions increased by 992,200 tons to 6.5463 million tons. As of September 5, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 144.2572 million tons, an increase of 377,000 tons from the previous week. The total imported inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 673,200 tons week - on - week, and the inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, an increase of 1.43 days week - on - week. The national daily average hot metal output was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons from the previous week. Affected by the tightening of environmental protection policies in the northern region, the production cut of steel mills was the largest in the past two months. At the same time, the output of some steel mills also decreased due to equipment maintenance and raw material supply problems [6]. 2.2 Basis Data According to Wind data, the spot price of PB powder (61.5%) at Tianjin Port was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis between Tianjin fine ore (61.5%) and the futures main contract was 10.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts According to the data of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, there were 1,900 registered warehouse receipts of iron ore this week, the same as the previous week [7]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News The industrial utilization rate of domestic miners decreased by 2.10% week - on - week to 60.55%, and the daily average output of iron concentrate decreased by 13,300 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The daily K - line of the main I2601 contract of iron ore is running above the middle track of the BOLL, indicating a bullish state [8]. 4. Market Outlook This week, the iron ore market showed a volatile upward trend, with both futures and spot prices strengthening simultaneously. The tight balance of supply and demand in the fundamentals supports the price, but there is an increasing supply - side pressure and demand - side resilience. Technically, it shows a short - term strength, but the risk of over - bought correction should be vigilant. The macro - economic easing expectation and the steel mills' replenishment demand are the main driving forces, while the high port inventory and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation are potential constraints [9].