Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, with the reference range for rebar oscillations at 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot - rolled coils at 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge, and shorting the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is advisable [1]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar spot in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract dropped from 3380 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output dropping by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, rebar apparent demand increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a long - biased outlook in a single - side trading, with the reference range of 780 - 850 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: The inventory cost of various iron ore powders and spot prices mostly declined. For example, the inventory cost of PB powder dropped from 848.0 yuan/ton to 842.5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, such as the 01 contract basis of PB powder dropping from 82.0 yuan/ton to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the Coke 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the Coking Coal 05 contract increased by 0.6% to 1314 yuan/ton. The basis of both decreased [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production remained stable, and the output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to increase, the coking plant operation remained stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory**: For coke, coking plants' inventory decreased, while steel mills' and ports' inventory increased. For coking coal, coal mines', ports', and steel mills' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants', coking plants', and ports' inventory increased [6]. - **Profit**: The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2% to 404 yuan/ton [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3350 yuan, and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Short the January spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continues to converge [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increase, and the costs of different steelmaking processes change. The profits of various steel products show a downward trend [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases slightly, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, rebar output decreases significantly, and hot - rolled coil output increases slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases slightly, rebar inventory decreases seasonally, and hot - rolled coil inventory increases [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products increase slightly, rebar apparent demand increases significantly, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreases [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with the range referring to 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore when the price is low and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different iron ore varieties' 01 contracts decreases significantly, and the spreads between different contracts change [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreases week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increases. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases slightly, the daily average port clearance volume increases, and the monthly output of pig iron and crude steel decreases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreases slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increases, and the number of days of available inventory of 64 steel mills increases [4]. Group 3: Coal Industry (Coke and Coking Coal) Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke when the price is low, with the range referring to 1650 - 1800, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal when the price is low, with the range referring to 1150 - 1300, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Due to previous price increases, coking profits are still available after two rounds of price cuts, and northern coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for resuming production [7]. - **Demand**: Steel mills continue to resume production, and iron water output continues to rise slightly, providing support for downstream demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Coking plants reduce inventory, while steel mills and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Main - producing area coal mines resume production, logistics recovers, and sales improve after price cuts. Imported coal prices follow futures fluctuations [7]. - **Demand**: Iron water output continues to rise, coking operations remain stable, and downstream replenishment demand increases [7]. - **Inventory**: Coal mines, ports, and steel mills reduce inventory, while coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7].

1. Steel Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak demand and the expectation of a contraction in coal supply. With the impact of reduced coking coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space is expected to be limited, and prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 33 yuan to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions mostly declined, and the profits of rebar also showed a mixed trend [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2% increase). The production of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons (0.3% increase) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons (0.8% increase), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons (6.0% increase) [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Considering that the steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level. The low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. It is recommended to view the single - side trend as oscillating upwards, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to buy the 2601 contract of iron ore at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The basis of the 01 - contract for various iron ore powders decreased significantly. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 39.8 to 40.3 yuan/ton (- 49.7%). The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 yuan/ton (2.6%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons (29.6%), while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3 tons (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 tons (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 tons (0.6%) [4]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For coke, the market is driven by the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions in September and the bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1509 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 26 to 1709 yuan/ton (- 1.5%). The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 30 to 1230 yuan/ton (2.5%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, while the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 tons (5.1%). The raw coal output of main - producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 tons (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the demand for coking coal and coke showed an upward trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with different inventory trends among different sectors [6].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The demand side of steel remains weak in reality and expectation, but there is an expected contraction in the coal supply. The pricing is influenced by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the reference range for rebar being 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot-rolled coil being 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while futures contract prices mostly increased. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices mostly decreased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and slab price remained unchanged. - Costs of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar and converter rebar increased, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions mostly increased [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4%. Rebar output decreased by 6.8 to 211.9, a decrease of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil output increased by 10.9 to 325.1, a rise of 3.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. Rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653, a rise of 2.2%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.0 to 373.3, a decline of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 11.1, a decline of 6.0%. - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9%. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 4.0 to 198.1, a decline of 2.0%, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 20.8 to 326.2, a rise of 6.8% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Unilaterally, it is considered to be in a slightly bullish trend, with the reference range being 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil [4]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes, and the basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a decline of 2.6%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 22.0, a rise of 2.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron ore powders in Rizhao Port showed slight changes, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5%, and the global shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a decline of 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a decline of 2.9% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Report on the Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View After two rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders are starting to replenish stocks in advance. The market generally expects limited downside, and there is a pre - National Day restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range being 1650 - 1800, and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts mostly decreased. - The basis of coke and coking coal futures contracts showed some changes [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 43.8 to 817.3, a rise of 5.4%, and the clean coal output increasing by 23.3 to 442.5, a rise of 5.6% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.14%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased, indicating an increase in coke demand [6]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased. - Coking coal inventory in different sectors showed different changes, with the overall inventory at a medium level and slightly decreasing [6].

Supply - Global shipments this week saw a significant decline, with a total of 27.562 million tons shipped, down by 8.006 million tons week-on-week [1] - Port arrivals decreased to 24.480 million tons, a drop of 0.078 million tons week-on-week [1] - Monthly import volume reached 105.225 million tons, an increase of 0.602 million tons month-on-month [1] Demand - As of September 11, daily iron and steel production averaged 2.4055 million tons, up by 0.1171 million tons week-on-week [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% week-on-week [1] - Ironmaking capacity utilization rate reached 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [1] - Steel mill profit margin stood at 60.17%, a slight decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily port throughput increasing [1] - Steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.532 million tons week-on-week, totaling 89.931 million tons [1] - Port inventory at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, a minor decrease of 0.2 million tons [1] - Average daily throughput at 45 ports was 3.313 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract exhibited a strong oscillating trend this week [2] - A significant drop in global iron ore shipments was noted, primarily due to maintenance at three Brazilian ports [2] - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased, but iron and steel production has rebounded significantly, indicating increased restocking demand [2] - Port inventory has seen a slight accumulation, while throughput has increased [2] - The market outlook remains balanced but tight, with a recommendation to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of 780-850 [2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season without signs of recovery. There is an expected increase in apparent demand during the peak season from August to September, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Steel supply - demand has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Steel prices will follow the expected changes in the coking coal supply side. For the January contract, pay attention to the support level of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease. Steel mill profit margins have slightly declined, but after major events, iron ore production will increase this week, and steel mills' replenishment demand will rise. It is expected that supply and demand will increase simultaneously this week. Port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. Due to high steel mill profitability, iron ore production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and low port inventory provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke Industry**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile decline, with intense price fluctuations. Spot auction prices were stable to weak, and Mongolian coal quotes were weak. Domestic coking coal auctions have weakened, and downstream procurement willingness has decreased. After the lifting of production restrictions, coal mines in major producing areas are resuming production, and market supply - demand has eased. Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and after the first round of price cuts in coke spot, it remained stable. The supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. For both coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with a volatile view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contract prices also declined [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel product costs and profits changed, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increasing by 1 yuan, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20 yuan [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0 (a 4.6% decline), and the production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7 (a 2.7% decline) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7 (a 2.2% increase), and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 (an 8.3% decline), and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8 (a 3.5% decline) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 (a 3.6% increase), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 (a 5.6% decrease) [3] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0 (a 3.1% decline), and the global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2 (a 22.5% decline) [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 (a 4.2% decline) [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 24.3 to 13849.65 (a 0.2% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 6686.8 (a 0.7% decline) [3] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal and Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and coking coal futures showed a volatile decline. The first - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and coking coal spot auction prices are stable to weak [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline), and the raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 817.3 (a 5.0% decline) [5] Demand - The weekly iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline) [5] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased. Coking coal inventory in coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased, while port and border - crossing inventory increased slightly [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, influenced by the expectation of crude steel production reduction in the 2025 - 2026 steel industry's stable - growth plan, steel prices strengthened slightly, but the night - session performance was weak. Weekly data shows an increase in steel production, low off - season apparent demand, and inventory accumulation. Considering the seasonality of rebar demand, it is expected that the apparent demand for rebar will rise during the peak season, driving up the apparent demand for the five major steel products. With the expectation of supply - side contraction and steel demand not stalling and coking coal not resuming production, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillatory rebound. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. However, based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase periodically. On the demand side, last week, the steel mills' profit margins were at a relatively high level. During the Tangshan military parade, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level but remained around 240,000 tons per day. The impact of production restrictions will be reflected in the molten iron output next week. The data of the five major steel products shows that the recent increase in steel production and apparent demand supports iron ore. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory decreased. Looking ahead, the molten iron output will decline slightly before and after the military parade, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise in the fundamentals. Since the steel mills' profit margins are still high, the molten iron output in September will remain at a high level. On the 28th, the steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Strategically, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3][5]. Coke Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The coke spot price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, the coking profit improved. However, due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, etc., the coking enterprises' operation rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased from a high level, but downstream demand still had resilience. In terms of inventory, the coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight inventory increase, and the overall inventory was at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still had inventory replenishment needs, and the delayed arrival of goods was the reason for the recent strength of the coke spot. Tangshan's production restrictions are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. In the short term, the tight supply - demand situation will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the coke supply will gradually become more abundant. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking coal futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction prices were stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. On the spot side, the recent domestic coking coal auctions have weakened. After the price rose to a high level, the downstream procurement willingness decreased, and some coal types declined. Currently, the overall situation is weakly stable. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, the coal mine operation rate decreased slightly month - on - month, sales slowed down, and some coal mines started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down. Due to the high price, the downstream users' inventory replenishment has been cautious recently. On the demand side, due to the pre - parade production restrictions in Tangshan's steel industry and coking production restrictions in Shandong and Henan, the coking operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level. In terms of inventory, the coal mines, ports, and border crossings had a slight inventory increase, while the coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills had a slight inventory decrease. The overall inventory decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market weakened after a slight correction and is currently weakly stable. The near - month contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse - receipt delivery exerts some pressure on the 09 contract. The far - month valuation is still at a premium compared to the near - month Mongolian coal warehouse receipt. The Fujian Datian mine accident and the production - restriction expectations caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi drove a sharp rise on Monday, but the spot market remains weakly stable. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released on the 28th, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,260 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,246 yuan/ton, 3,129 yuan/ton, and 3,205 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 18 yuan/ton, and 33 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,410 yuan/ton, 3,360 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,385 yuan/ton, and 3,372 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The slab price was 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar was 3,346 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's converter rebar was 3,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 5 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing by 28 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were - 38 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China profit decreasing by 18 yuan/ton and the others decreasing by 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.3%). The output of the five major steel products was 8.846 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons (0.7%). The rebar output was 220,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons (2.8%), including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1,500 tons (5.0%) and an increase in converter output of 4,400 tons (2.4%). The hot - rolled coil output was 324,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 14.679 million tons, an increase of 268,000 tons (1.9%). The rebar inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 164,000 tons (2.7%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 103,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (12.6%). The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.578 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons (0.6%). The apparent demand for rebar was 204,200 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons (4.8%). The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 320,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 812.1 yuan/ton, 828.2 yuan/ton, 840.6 yuan/ton, and 839.2 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The 01 - contract basis for these four types of ore increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread was - 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton (- 5.8%); the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.4%); the 1 - 5 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton (13.6%) [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 891.0 yuan/ton, 781.0 yuan/ton, 818.0 yuan/ton, and 737.0 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap price was 101.8 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars (0.1%), and the Platts 62% Fe price was 102.5 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5 US dollars (0.5%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 23.933 million tons, a decrease of 833,000 tons (- 3.4%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 908,000 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly import volume was 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.315 million tons (- 1.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%). The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) was 325,700 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly pig iron output was 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.108 million tons (- 1.5%), and the national monthly crude steel output was 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 3.526 million tons (- 4.2%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared with Monday) was 137.9868 million tons, a decrease of 465,000 tons (- 0.3%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.655 million tons, a decrease of 709,000 tons (- 0.8%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were 1,610 yuan/ton and 1,635 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter decreasing by 11 yuan/ton (- 0.74%). The 09 and 01 contracts of coke were 1,584 yuan/ton and 1,673 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract decreasing by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and the 01 contract increasing by 3 yuan/ton (0.2%). The 09 and 01 basis were 52 yuan/ton and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 14 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (- 0.1%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 65,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons (1.5%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 610,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons (0.1%). The port inventory was 212,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.2%) [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons (- 27.1%) [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal were 1,230 yuan/ton and 1,145 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal were 1,020 yuan/ton and 1,175 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton (0.8%) and the 01 contract increasing by 21 yuan/ton (1.8%). The 09 and 01 basis were 125 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis decreasing by 9 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 21 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines (weekly) was 860,400 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons (0.4%), and the clean coal output was 442,700 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons (0.8%) [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons (5.1%). The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory was 961,300 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons (- 0.5%). The 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 811,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.1%). The port inventory was 275,400 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons (5.3%) [6].