| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4833.980 | 0.582 | 0.01% | 11.94% | | 伦敦银现 | 93.797 | 0.659 | 0.71% | 31.04% | | COMEX黄金 | 4829.8d | -7.7 | -0.16% | 11.49% | | COMEX白银 | 93.715d | 1.078 | 1.16% | 32.03% | 高盛大幅上调黄金目标价。 1月21日，高盛全球投资研究部商品团队分析师Daan Struyven与Lina Thomas在报告中，将2026年12月黄金目标价上调至5400 美元/盎司，此前为4900美元/盎司。 就在同一日，现货黄金（伦敦金现）价格冲上4888.43美元/盎司的历史新最高。 不过，1月22日现货黄金价格出现超1%的跌幅，截至发稿时，交投在4830美元/盎司附近，年初至今已有超11%的涨幅。 需要重点观察的三个因素均来自需求端。高盛指出，这三个因素分别为：央行购金是否持续回落：若月度购金估算持续回落 至2022年前 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged to a near two-month high of $4,374 before retracting, closing at $4,332.31, with current trading around $4,326 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold maintains a strong bullish trend, with prices above key moving averages and higher highs and lows, suggesting potential testing of historical highs at $4,381 and targeting $4,400 [18] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.6%, marking a significant inflation data release since the end of the government shutdown [5] - Market skepticism regarding the reliability of economic data has increased, particularly following the dismissal of the U.S. Labor Secretary, with concerns about data manipulation for favorable market outcomes [5] - Following the CPI release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, with traders anticipating a potential cut of 62 basis points [5] Group 3: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, the highest level since September 1995, signaling the end of an era of ultra-loose monetary policy [7] - This decision aims to combat inflation that has exceeded the central bank's target for 44 consecutive months, amidst concerns of a policy mismatch between tightening monetary policy and expansive fiscal measures [7] - Japan's ruling party plans to increase income tax rates by 1 percentage point starting January 2027 to fund defense needs, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges [9] Group 4: U.S. Military Actions - The U.S. military conducted a strike against a vessel identified as linked to a terrorist organization in the Eastern Pacific, resulting in four fatalities, amid ongoing anti-drug operations [14] - The U.S. Embassy in Ecuador announced a joint operation with the Ecuadorian Air Force to enhance capabilities against drug-related terrorism [15]

Core Insights - The global cryptocurrency market experienced a severe sell-off on October 11, with Bitcoin's price dropping nearly 13% within hours, falling below $110,000 to a low of approximately $106,000, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2024 [1][4] Group 1: Market Impact - A record $19.141 billion was liquidated in the global derivatives market within 24 hours, with over $7 billion liquidated in less than an hour, affecting more than 1.62 million traders and leading to a significant drop in market liquidity and increased price volatility [3] - Bitcoin's price fell from $123,000 to about $106,000, representing a decline of approximately 13.5%, while Ethereum and other major altcoins also saw significant declines, with Ethereum dropping over 17% and smaller tokens like XRP and Dogecoin experiencing declines exceeding 30% [4][5] Group 2: Risk Factors - The liquidation event highlighted the high leverage risk in the cryptocurrency market, with around 90% of the liquidated accounts being long positions, indicating that most investors had increased leverage during price rises without effective risk hedging [5] - The market faced additional pressure from macroeconomic uncertainties, including potential trade tariffs and government shutdown risks in the U.S., which further weakened confidence in cryptocurrency assets [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may continue to face significant volatility in the short term, especially if U.S. policy uncertainties persist or macroeconomic pressures increase; however, if market sentiment stabilizes and regulatory clarity improves, a technical rebound may occur [6] - Institutional investors are reportedly continuing to build long-term positions in Bitcoin, with some large funds buying at lower prices, which could provide support in the future [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. However, the uncertainty of macro - policies' impact on the resilience of hot metal should be noted. It is expected that the short - term ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [2][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - Futures market: As of August 14, the price of the iron ore main contract I2601 declined this week, closing at 775 yuan/ton, with a position of 452,000 lots, an increase of 116,000 lots [7]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports showed mixed trends. The price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port was 880 yuan/ton, the price of 62.5% BRBF decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 807 yuan/ton, the price of 61.5% PB fines increased by 1 yuan/ton to 771 yuan/ton, the price of 61% Jinbuba fines was 755 yuan/ton, and the price of 56.5% Super Special fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton. For domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 810 yuan/ton, the price of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan increased by 5 yuan/ton to 788 yuan/ton, and the price of 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 10 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, and the spread changes were relatively small [14]. - Futures - spot and futures monthly spreads: This week, the main 2601 contract of iron ore had a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 of iron ore was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 of iron ore was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [18]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of August 8, Australia's weekly shipment was 1.5183 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipment was 0.7305 million tons, with a total of 2.2488 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Overseas ore shipments are at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years, and future domestic supply is sufficient [24]. - Domestic ore capacity utilization rate: As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mines nationwide was 64.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.72% [25]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 25.14 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 US dollars; the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 10.15 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 US dollars [26]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of August 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, an increase of 340 tons compared with last week and an increase of 118,900 tons compared with the same period last year. With the increase in steel mill hot metal production, the daily consumption of imported ores by sample steel mills this week rebounded by 370 tons to 298,520 tons. Moreover, the short - term decline in iron ore prices accelerated steel mill purchases. This week, the inventory of imported ores in steel mills increased significantly by 123,060 tons to 9.1364 million tons, reaching a new high since May [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 64 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 1.31783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,970 tons. The average proportion of imported ores used in sinter was 86.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The average tax - free hot metal cost of steel mills was 2,302 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton. The total inventory of imported iron ores at 45 ports nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 13.81927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,670 tons, an increase of 12,820 tons; the number of ships at ports was 93, a decrease of 12 [31]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Recommendations - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and the arrivals also decreased synchronously, with the overall supply tightening month - on - month. In terms of demand, the hot metal output increased slightly, but the increase was not large, and the iron ore demand still showed resilience. In terms of inventory, the port clearance volume increased significantly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory remained basically unchanged. In general, the recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while the demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [36].