News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators on metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - The three-month copper price increased by 0.46% to $9,713 per ton, influenced by a weaker US dollar, while risk aversion due to conflicts in the Middle East limited further gains [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] Group 2 - Concerns over oil supply in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, which could negatively affect global economic growth and potentially increase inflation [1] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US economic growth, with May retail sales declining more than expected, linked to changes in US tariff policies [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates rose by 29.4% year-on-year in May 2025, totaling 17.51 million tons, while the first five months of 2025 saw a 33.1% increase to 85.18 million tons [1] Group 3 - In other base metals, three-month aluminum prices fell by 0.02% to $2,550 per ton, while zinc prices rose by 0.55% to $2,653 per ton [2] - Lead prices increased by 0.18% to $1,979.5 per ton, nickel prices slightly rose by 0.24% to $14,960 per ton, and tin prices saw a 1.11% increase to $32,625 per ton [2]

Group 1: Aluminum Exports and Imports - In May, China's alumina exports reached 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 104.6% [1] - From January to May, alumina exports totaled 1.17 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.3% [1] Group 2: Aluminum and Aluminum Products Imports - In May, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products amounted to 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - From January to May, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products imports totaled 1.67 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [1] Group 3: Steel Imports - In May, steel imports were recorded at 480,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.5% [1] - From January to May, total steel imports reached 2.55 million tons, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [1] Group 4: Bauxite and Its Concentrates Imports - In May, imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [1] - From January to May, bauxite and its concentrates imports totaled 85.18 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products - Soybean imports in April reached 608,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2,319,000 tons for the first four months, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.1% and 14.6% respectively [1] - Edible vegetable oil imports totaled 480,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 2,203,000 tons, showing a decline of 2.5% in April and 11.8% year-on-year [1] - Cotton imports were 60,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 400,000 tons, indicating a significant drop of 82.2% in April and 71.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Minerals and Metals - Iron ore and its concentrates imports reached 10,314,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 38,836,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 1.5% in April but a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year [2] - Copper ore and its concentrates imports were 292,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 1,003,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and 7.8% respectively [2] - Aluminum ore and its concentrates imports totaled 2,068,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 6,770,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45.4% and 34.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil imports reached 4,806,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 18,303,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a slight increase of 0.5% in April [2] - Finished oil imports were 357,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 1,292,000 tons, reflecting a significant decline of 32.9% in April and 25.6% year-on-year [2] - Natural gas imports totaled 1,096,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 6,683,000 tons, indicating a decrease of 5.6% in April and 9.2% year-on-year [2]