Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October 2025 reached 1.204 million tons, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase. Cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Metal Production Data - Alumina production in October was 7.865 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a cumulative increase of 8.0% for the year [2]. - Non-ferrous metals production totaled 6.954 million tons in October, showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase and a cumulative increase of 3.1% [2]. - Zinc production in October was 0.665 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a cumulative increase of 8.5% [2]. - Aluminum production in October was 0.645 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while cumulative production showed a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Copper products production was 2.004 million tons in October, down 3.3% year-on-year, but cumulative production increased by 5.9% [2]. - Aluminum alloy production reached 1.682 million tons in October, with a notable year-on-year increase of 17.2% and a cumulative increase of 15.7% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures declined due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, leading to widespread market sell-offs [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 14, LME three-month copper fell by $104, or 0.95%, closing at $10,852.00 per ton [2]. - Other industrial metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $38.00 (1.31%), zinc down by $34.50 (1.13%), lead down by $14.00 (0.67%), and tin down by $445.00 (1.20%) [2]. - Despite the recent drop, LME copper recorded an approximate 1.3% increase for the week, having briefly surpassed the $11,000 mark on Thursday [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The sell-off was driven by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as concerns about "overheating" inflation were expressed by Kansas City Fed President Esther George [5]. - The St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated that the current policy stance is closer to "neutral" rather than "mildly restrictive," suggesting limited room for further easing [5]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted signs of economic weakness in the U.S., with fourth-quarter GDP growth expected to fall below the previously predicted 1.9% due to government shutdown impacts [5]. Group 3: Production Data - In October 2025, China's primary aluminum production was reported at 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with cumulative production from January to October reaching 37.75 million tons, up 2.0% [5]. - Additionally, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals in October 2025 was 6.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, with cumulative production for the first ten months at 68.14 million tons, an increase of 3.1% [5].

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October 2025 reached 3.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Cumulative production from January to October 2025 totaled 37.75 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - In October 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Cumulative production for the first ten months of 2025 was 68.14 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

（文华综合） 数据亦显示，2025年10月，中国十种有色金属产量为695万吨，同比增长2.9%。1-10月累计产量为6814 万吨，同比增长3.1%。 国家统计局11月14日发布的数据显示，中国2025年10月原铝（电解铝）产量为380万吨，同比增加 0.4%。1-20月累计产量为3775万吨，同比增长2.0%。 ...

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in September 2025 reached 1.266 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - Cumulative production from January to September 2025 totaled 11.125 million tons, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [1] Production Data Summary - **Alumina**: September production was 7.999 million tons, with a cumulative production of 68.56 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% for September and 8.4% cumulatively [2] - **Ten Nonferrous Metals**: September production stood at 6.945 million tons, with a cumulative total of 61.249 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.9% for September and 3% cumulatively [2] - **Refined Copper (Electrolytic Copper)**: As previously mentioned, September production was 1.266 million tons, with a cumulative total of 11.125 million tons, both showing a 10.1% and 10% year-on-year increase respectively [2] - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: September production was 3.809 million tons, with a cumulative total of 33.968 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% for September and 2.2% cumulatively [2] - **Copper Products**: September production reached 2.232 million tons, with a cumulative total of 18.575 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% for September and 9.6% cumulatively [2] - **Aluminum Products**: September production was 5.900 million tons, with a cumulative total of 49.768 million tons, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% for September and no growth cumulatively [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the production trends and forecasts for China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry, highlighting a slight decline in production for 2025 while showing overall growth in the first eight months of 2025 [1]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production is projected to be 3.8 million tons in August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) reached 30.138 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 2.2% compared to the previous year [1]. Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1]. Research Report - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 Development Strategy and Investment Opportunity Forecast Report for China's Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) Industry," indicating a focus on strategic planning and investment opportunities within the sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in September 2025 reached 3.81 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Industry Summary - In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity showed a slight recovery, with the aluminum water ratio in electrolytic aluminum plants also experiencing a minor increase, resulting in stable production levels [1] - As October begins, SMM indicates that the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to further boost electrolytic aluminum production, with daily average production anticipated to grow [1]

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in September 2025 reached 3.81 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to September 2025 totaled 33.97 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1] - In September 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals from January to September 2025 was 61.25 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1]

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in September 2025 reached 3.81 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to September 2025 totaled 33.97 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1] - In September 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.95 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals from January to September 2025 was 61.25 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77]. - Aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up nature to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited domestic supply increase, expected decline in overseas supply, and low social inventory [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Weak alumina prices and increased overseas macro - uncertainties [8]. - **Overseas political situation**: The US federal government's "shutdown" increased global financial market uncertainties. The delay of non - farm data made ADP employment data crucial. The 9 - month ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 people, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts [9][10][13]. - **Domestic economic situation**: China's economy shows a slow recovery. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays was good, but the film box office declined year - on - year [14][17]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Bauxite supply**: In 2025, from January to August, domestic bauxite production was 40.861 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year. However, due to environmental protection and resource grade decline, the actual supply increase is limited. From January to August, imports were 141.75 million tons, up 31.4% year - on - year, with a dependence of 78.4%. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [20][23]. - **Alumina supply**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, up 7.5% year - on - year. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with high production and an open import window. New capacity is planned to be put into production later, increasing the surplus pressure [27]. - **Primary aluminum production**: In August 2025, primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, down 0.5% year - on - year. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly. The upper limit of electrolytic aluminum capacity is 45 million tons, and the supply increase space is limited. The low proportion of aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices [30]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall aluminum processing start - up rate decreased to 62.5% month - on - month, showing seasonal characteristics and internal differentiation [33]. - **Aluminum product demand**: In August 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.548 million tons, up 1% month - on - month and down 4.2% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 43.79 million tons, basically flat year - on - year. Demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [36]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory decreased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of September 30. During the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated to 634,000 tons as of October 9, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [48][52]. - **Price difference**: On October 9, the domestic spot discount widened, and the LME aluminum premium widened [56]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, down 1.7% month - on - month and up 8.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.6%, up 0.7% week - on - week [60][64]. - **Aluminum alloy import and export**: In August 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, down 16.7% year - on - year; the export was 29,100 tons, up 28.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [68]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of October 10, China's aluminum alloy weekly social inventory was 75,700 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week [73]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. - Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77].