上市企业：中国铝业（601600）,南山铝业（600219）,云铝股份（000807）,新疆众和（600888）,神火股 份（000933）,中孚实业（600595）,焦作万方（000612）,东阳光（600673）,天山铝业（002532）,闽发 铝业（002578） 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年6月中国原铝(电解铝)产量为381万吨，同比增长3.4%；2025年1-6月 中国原铝(电解铝)累计产量为2237.9万吨，累计增长3.3%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原铝（电解铝）行业发展战略规划及投资机会预测报 告》 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry in China is experiencing reasonable growth, with fixed asset investment increasing by over 10% [1][5] - In May, the industrial added value of the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 7.0% from January to May [1][4] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals reached 6.827 million tons in May, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [4] Industry Performance - The added value of the non-ferrous metal mining sector grew by 5.1% in May, while the smelting and rolling processing sector saw an 8.1% increase [1] - From January to May, the mining sector's growth was 6.3%, slightly narrowing from the previous month, while the smelting and rolling sector's growth was 7.1%, expanding by 0.2 percentage points [1] Production Data - The production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in May was 3.828 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% increase [4] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 33.404 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] Investment Trends - Nationally, fixed asset investment in the industrial sector grew by 11.6%, while investment in the non-ferrous metal industry surged by 19.9%, exceeding the national average by 8.3 percentage points [5][6] - Investment in the non-ferrous metal mining sector increased by 44.0%, and the smelting and rolling processing sector saw a 14.3% rise [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economy of Yunnan Province is projected to achieve a GDP of 31,534.10 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.3% compared to the previous year [9] - The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth are 10.6% for the primary industry, 25.8% for the secondary industry, and 63.6% for the tertiary industry [9] - The private economy in Yunnan has shown vitality, with an added value of 16,791.90 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year, accounting for 53.3% of the provincial GDP [22] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have seen significant growth, with added values increasing by 17.7% and 19.0% respectively [22] - Clean energy generation reached 3,763.25 billion kWh, a 14.0% increase, making up 86.3% of the industrial power generation [23] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Yunnan's GDP reached 31,534.10 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 3.3% [9] - The per capita GDP was 67,612 yuan, growing by 3.8% [9] - The labor productivity increased by 3.1% to 110,900 yuan per person [9] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 6,846.86 billion yuan, growing by 2.6% [25] - The grain production reached 19.93 million tons, with a growth of 1.0% [28] Industry - The total industrial added value was 7,453.92 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.2% [30] - The manufacturing sector grew by 3.0%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 7.1% [30] Services - The revenue of the service industry reached 3,675.96 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% [37] - The information transmission, software, and information technology services grew by 15.3% [37] Investment and Real Estate - Total fixed asset investment decreased by 7.4% year-on-year [38] - Real estate development investment fell by 28.5% [43] Trade and Foreign Economy - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% [44] - The total foreign trade import and export volume was 2,487.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% [48] Transportation and Telecommunications - The total cargo transport volume was 1.491 billion tons, growing by 3.2% [52] - The number of mobile phone users reached 53.32 million, with a growth of 10.8% [56] Finance - The financial sector's added value was 1,532.25 billion yuan, growing by 2.0% [64] - The total public budget revenue was 2,193.23 billion yuan, increasing by 2.0% [61] Education and Technology - The number of higher education institutions was 92, with a total enrollment of 468,000 students [66] - The number of high-tech enterprises reached 3,840 [69] Environment - The average PM2.5 concentration was 20.5 micrograms per cubic meter, with a good air quality day ratio of 99.1% [24]