铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | | | 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析（铝） | 多 素 方 因 | 空 素 方 因 | | --- | --- | | 国 内 供 应 端 增 量 相 对 有 限 | 氧 化 铝 格 继 续 维 持 弱 势 价 | | 海 外 供 应 预 期 滑 下 | 海 外 宏 不 确 定 性 有 所 上 升 观 | | 会 库 存 继 续 处 低 位 社 于 | | 海外政治波动加大 进一步增强美联储降息预期 美东时间10月1日0时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数 据发布将受到影响。全球金融市场正面临新的不确定性。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国劳工统计局未能按计划于3日公布月度就业数据统计报告。 由于非农数据延迟公布，ADP 由于非农数据延迟公布，ADP就业数据成为关键， ...

上市企业：中国铝业（601600）,南山铝业（600219）,云铝股份（000807）,新疆众和（600888）,神火股 份（000933）,中孚实业（600595）,焦作万方（000612）,东阳光（600673）,天山铝业（002532）,闽发 铝业（002578） 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年5月中国原铝(电解铝)产量为383万吨，同比增长5%；2025年1-5月中 国原铝(电解铝)累计产量为1859万吨，累计增长4%。 2020-2025年1-5月中国原铝(电解铝)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国原铝（电解铝）行业发展战略规划及投资机会预测报 告》 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - **Bearish factors**: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - **Real - estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - **Recycled aluminum**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - **Aluminum alloy imports and exports**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 totaled 9.891 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1] Production Data Summary - Total production of ten non-ferrous metals in August was 6.978 million tons, with a cumulative total of 54.317 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% for the month and 3.1% cumulatively [2] - Refined copper (electrolytic copper) production for August was 1.301 million tons, with a cumulative total of 9.891 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.8% for the month and 10.1% cumulatively [2] - Lead production in August was 667,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 5.116 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the month and 0.9% cumulatively [2] - Zinc production in August was 651,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.836 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 22.8% for the month and 5.4% cumulatively [2] - Primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August was 3.800 million tons, with a cumulative total of 30.138 million tons, indicating a slight decrease of 0.5% for the month but a 2.2% increase cumulatively [2] - Aluminum alloy production in August was 1.635 million tons, with a cumulative total of 12.324 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% for the month and 15.3% cumulatively [2] - Copper products production in August was 2.222 million tons, with a cumulative total of 16.598 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.8% for the month and 10.7% cumulatively [2] - Aluminum products production in August was 5.548 million tons, with a cumulative total of 43.790 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% for the month and no change cumulatively [2]

数据亦显示，2025年8月，中国十种有色金属产量为698万吨，同比增长3.8%。1-8月累计产量为5432万 吨，同比增长3.1%。 国家统计局9月15日发布的数据显示，中国2025年8月原铝（电解铝）产量为380万吨，同比减少0.5%。 1-8月累计产量为3014万吨，同比增长2.2%。 ...

国家统计局发布报告显示，中国2025年8月原铝（电解铝）产量为380万吨，同比减少0.5%。8月山东地 区电解铝产能继续向云南地区转移，青海地区原地置换的电解铝产能全部投产完毕，广西地区前期技改 项目陆续开始起槽复产，电解铝运行产能小幅增加，产量环比微涨。进入9月份，SMM表示，随着置换 项目逐步起槽投产，国内电解铝运行产能预计再度小幅提升，前期起槽项目逐步实现产出，铝锭日均产 量实现增长。 ...

国家统计局9月15日发布的数据显示，中国2025年8月原铝（电解铝）产量为380万吨，同比减少0.5%。 1-8月累计产量为3014万吨，同比增长2.2%。 数据亦显示，2025年8月，中国十种有色金属产量为698万吨，同比增长3.8%。1-8月累计产量为5432万 吨，同比增长3.1%。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are weak, opening at $2698 per ton and currently at the same price, with a decline of 0.11% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2705 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2689 per ton [1] Group 2 - On September 12, LME aluminum futures opened at $2676.5, peaked at $2703.5, and closed at $2701.0, reflecting a 0.82% increase [2] - In August, the production of ten non-ferrous metals was 6.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the production from January to August totaled 54.32 million tons, up 3.1% year-on-year [2] - The production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in August was 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with a total production of 30.14 million tons from January to August, representing a 2.2% year-on-year increase [2] - As of September 12, the LME aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 375,025 tons, with canceled receipts at 110,250 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 485,275 tons, all remaining unchanged [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth forecast for China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry, highlighting a projected production increase in the coming years [1][3]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production is expected to reach 3.81 million tons by June 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in China is projected to be 22.379 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.3% [1]. Companies Involved - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1].

Group 1 - LME aluminum prices declined due to the US expanding the 50% import tariff to more aluminum derivative products, creating uncertainty in demand [1] - The main aluminum contract in Shanghai reached a low of 20,550 yuan per ton, the lowest since August 6 [1] - The three-month aluminum price fell by 0.65% to $2,590 per ton, hitting a low since August 12 [1] Group 2 - The US government announced on August 15 that it would add 407 product codes to the tariff list, affecting various aluminum and steel-containing products [1] - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [1] - China's aluminum production in July 2025 was 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a cumulative production of 26.38 million tons from January to July, up 2.8% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - China's aluminum ore and concentrate imports in July 2025 reached 20.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, with a cumulative import of 123.26 million tons from January to July, up 33.7% [2] - In July, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with a cumulative export of 934,046 tons from January to July, up 10% [2] Group 4 - A Singapore aluminum trader noted that the new tariff plan has negatively impacted market sentiment for base metals [3] - Technical analysts predict that three-month copper may test support levels between $9,567 and $9,620 per ton, with potential further declines if these levels are breached [3] - The three-month aluminum price may test support around $2,547 per ton, with further declines possible if this support is broken [3]