Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in aluminum prices, with a net profit of 707 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [6][9]. - The improvement in performance is attributed to enhanced profitability in aluminum deep processing and increased electrolytic aluminum capacity, alongside reduced costs from alumina and electricity [9]. - The company completed a 24% equity acquisition in Zhongfu Aluminum, raising its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, and is advancing its green aluminum development strategy [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.55% [6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 11.66%, up 1.40 percentage points from the previous year, and the net profit margin rose to 5.93%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average alumina price in the first half of 2025 was 3,450.64 yuan per ton, down 1.17% year-on-year, while the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,315.42 yuan per ton, up 2.66% [9]. - The price of thermal coal decreased by 26.81% year-on-year, contributing to cost improvements [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on green low-carbon transformation, with a new distributed photovoltaic capacity of approximately 21.5 MW added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to about 77.55 MW [9]. - The proportion of recycled aluminum in deep processing products reached 61%, further reducing the carbon footprint [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company initiated an employee stock ownership plan, with employees purchasing approximately 330 million shares, representing 8.21% of total shares, at an average price of 3.21 yuan per share [9]. - A cash dividend plan was established, aiming to distribute at least 60% of the distributable profits in cash annually from 2025 to 2027, reflecting confidence in future profitability [9]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24.108 billion yuan, 24.469 billion yuan, and 24.861 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.126 billion yuan, 2.232 billion yuan, and 2.390 billion yuan [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 5.68% on September 12, reaching a price of 5.58 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 143 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.64%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 22.364 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. is located at No. 31, Xinhua Road, Gongyi City, Henan Province, and was established on January 28, 1997, with its listing date on June 26, 2002 [1] - The company's main business activities include coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum production, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] Revenue Composition - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: - Aluminum processing: 62.62% - Electrolytic aluminum: 31.55% - Coal: 2.60% - Electricity: 2.38% - Other (supplementary): 0.44% - Steam: 0.33% - Trade: 0.08% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under ICBC Credit Suisse has a significant position in Zhongfu Industrial, specifically the Guozheng 2000 ETF Fund (159543), which held 59,500 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 0.57% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Guozheng 2000 ETF Fund (159543) was established on November 9, 2023, with a latest scale of 45.6395 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 32.69%, ranking 1276 out of 4222 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Liu Zihao, has a total asset scale of 3.318 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 67.44% and the worst being -2.06% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched a three-year dividend plan, highlighting its high dividend attributes. It commits to distributing no less than 60% of its distributable profits in cash dividends from 2025 to 2027 [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.55% to 707 million yuan [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, expecting net profits of 1.971 billion, 2.448 billion, and 2.731 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 180.0%, 24.2%, and 11.5% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, with a net profit of 707 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 646 million yuan [5] - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.47%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.57% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.1, 8.9, and 8.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9] Business Development - The company has completed the acquisition of a 24% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year [6] - The company is investing 70.386 million yuan in a new clean energy materials project, expected to recover its investment in approximately 2.06 years with an investment return rate of 107.47% [6] Shareholder Engagement - As of August 12, 2025, the company completed its employee stock ownership plan, purchasing 329 million shares, accounting for 8.21% of the total share capital [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.3 CNY based on a current price of 5.50 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to recover, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising aluminum prices and cost optimization. The company achieved a net profit of 707 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [2][6]. - The company is expected to resume cash dividends, with a plan to distribute no less than 60% of the distributable profits from 2025 to 2027, reflecting its strong dividend attributes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 10.574 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 707 million CNY, up 59.55% year-on-year [2][6]. - The second quarter saw total revenue of 5.552 billion CNY, down 4.47% year-on-year but up 10.57% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 477 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 107.16% [2][6]. - The company’s total assets are valued at 24.116 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.62% [3][7]. Market and Industry Insights - The average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a favorable pricing environment for the company [6]. - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum production capacity to 750,000 tons per year and is focusing on green power development, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the market [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.939 billion CNY, 2.388 billion CNY, and 2.688 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 175.5%, 23.2%, and 12.5% [7][8]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 24.118 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.0% compared to the previous year [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Industrial (600595) reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, while net profit saw significant growth, indicating a mixed performance in the company's financial health [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 10.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 707 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.55% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.18 yuan [1] Business Segment Analysis - The aluminum deep processing business maintained stable production and sales, with both processing fees and net profit showing year-on-year growth [1] - In the first half of 2025, the sales volume of aluminum deep processing products reached 292,600 tons, with net profit increasing by 56.04% year-on-year [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhongfu Industrial with a target price of 6.3 CNY [3][12]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from increased electrolytic aluminum capacity and a decline in raw material costs, leading to improved profitability and asset quality [9][10]. - The company is set to initiate its first dividend in years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10][46]. - The transition towards green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum sector presents a significant competitive advantage for the company [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,761 million CNY in 2024 to 27,764 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound from 704 million CNY in 2024 to 2,688 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.18 CNY in 2024 to 0.67 CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial is a veteran in the electrolytic aluminum industry, with a diversified business model encompassing coal, electricity, and aluminum processing [8][15]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring since 2021, improving its financial health and operational efficiency [8][17]. - As of 2024, the company has a production capacity of 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum and 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, positioning it among the top players in China's aluminum sector [15][27]. Growth Drivers - The completion of 100% control over electrolytic aluminum assets is expected to enhance production capacity by 19.3% [10][58]. - The company is actively working on cost optimization through self-supplied electricity and high self-sufficiency in carbon materials [10][61]. - The upcoming regulatory changes regarding green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum industry are anticipated to favor companies like Zhongfu that are investing in green energy solutions [10][11]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [10][47]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025-2027 is projected to be between 2.5% and 7.7%, depending on the approach to covering past losses [10][50].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 680 million and 720 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 237 million to 277 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year increase of 53.35% to 62.37% [1][2] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, between 620 million and 660 million yuan, an increase of 195 million to 235 million yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.04% to 55.47% [2] - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The previous year's total profit was 568 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 443 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 425 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.11 yuan [2] - The main reasons for the performance increase include cost reduction and sales price increase in the electrolytic aluminum business, as well as stable production and sales in the deep processing of aluminum, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) is a pioneer in the green, intelligent, and digital transformation of the domestic aluminum industry, particularly focusing on green development through initiatives like 500,000 tons/year of green low-carbon hydropower aluminum and distributed photovoltaic projects [1][2] Group 1: Project Developments - The company’s subsidiary, Sichuan Zhongfu, signed an investment cooperation agreement with Penghui Energy to build a large-scale user-side energy storage project in Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone, which includes a first phase of 100MW/400MWh and a second phase of 300MW/600MWh [1] - The first phase will become the largest user-side energy storage project in the country, significantly enhancing both companies' brand influence and market voice in the green energy sector [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Impact - Recent national and provincial policies supporting new energy and storage development will enhance the peak-shaving capacity of the North Sichuan power grid, alleviating power shortages during peak summer periods and ensuring stable energy supply for the company’s aluminum production [2] - The project aligns with local government policies and has received strong support, indicating a promising outlook for the company’s energy supply stability in Guangyuan [2] Group 3: Future Collaborations and Innovations - Sichuan Zhongfu and Penghui Energy will collaborate on solid-state battery research and efficient discharge technology for traditional storage, aiming to create a second growth curve while accumulating low-carbon technologies and developing low-carbon products [2] - The company is also advancing another integrated source-grid-load-storage project in Henan, which is set to install approximately 22.98MWp of photovoltaic capacity by the end of May 2025 [2]