Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

Group 1 - UBS research indicates that the global aluminum market may continue to experience supply tightness, benefiting Chinese companies, and has reiterated a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), raising the target price from HKD 28 to HKD 38.6 [1] - The global aluminum demand growth rate is projected at 4% for 2026/27, while supply growth is expected to be only 1-2%, potentially leading to a market shortage and a decline in visible inventory, which supports a sustained increase in aluminum prices [2] - China’s aluminum production capacity is strictly limited to 45.2 million tons per year, with utilization rates exceeding 98%, nearing policy limits, and limited new capacity additions expected in the coming years [2] Group 2 - UBS forecasts an increase in aluminum prices for China, raising the 2026 price estimate by 5% to CNY 22,000 per ton and the 2027 estimate by 7% to CNY 23,000 per ton, driven by tight supply and strong demand [2] - The London Metal Exchange aluminum price forecast has been raised by approximately 15%, influenced by rising copper prices leading to increased demand for aluminum as a substitute [2] - As an industry leader, China Hongqiao is expected to benefit from the constrained supply and favorable pricing environment, with UBS raising its net profit forecasts for the company by 11% for 2026 and 16% for 2027 based on higher aluminum price expectations [3]

02 期现市场 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 06 需求端 外强内弱延续 铝周报 2025/10/18 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 07 进出口 04 成本端 03 利润库存 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止9月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4406万吨，部分电解铝置换项目投产使得运行产能小幅提升，9月国内电解 铝产量同比增长1.1%，环比减少3.2%。进入10月，电解铝运行产能预计延续小幅提升。9月国内铝水比例环比回升1.2%，电解铝铸锭量同比 减少8.7%，环比减少7.9%至约85.7万吨。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，本周四库存录得64.2万吨，较上周四增加0.8万吨；本周保税区库存录得8.0万吨；本周四铝棒库存合计16.1万 吨，较上周四增加0.7万吨；LME全球铝库存录得49.1万吨，较上周减少1.5万吨。国内华东铝锭现货贴水转为升水，LME市场Cash/3M升水 12.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the domestic commodity market atmosphere improved, but the sustainability of the bullish sentiment was questionable, and overseas trade situation was uncertain. Although the aluminum ingot inventory remained low, the expected increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season demand would pose resistance to the upward movement of aluminum prices. The domestic main contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of 2,500 - 2,650 US dollars/ton [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons, with a slight decline due to capacity replacement. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the overall operating capacity would remain high [13][79]. - Inventory & Spot: In June, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons to 462,000 tons, the bonded area inventory increased by about 3,000 tons to 119,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 346,000 tons in June and increased slightly at the beginning of July [13][49][55]. - Imports and Exports: In May, the primary aluminum import volume decreased month - on - month, and the aluminum product export remained at a relatively high level. In June, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports widened, which was unfavorable for imports and favorable for exports [13][105]. - Demand: In June, the downstream aluminum product operating rate declined marginally. In July, the production schedules of domestic air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 1.9%, 2.4%, and 4.2% respectively. The real - estate data remained weak, and the photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In June, aluminum prices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 2.5%, and the LME aluminum rose 5.8% [26]. - Term Spread: In June, the decline in domestic social inventory led to an expansion of the monthly spread, which declined after the 2506 contract delivery but remained at a relatively high level [30]. - Spot Basis: In June, the aluminum ingot premium and discount in major domestic regions first rose and then fell. At the beginning of July, the spot in East China was slightly at a discount [33]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The spot performance in South China was strong [38]. - LME Premium and Discount: In June, the LME aluminum Cash/3M discount shrank, and at the beginning of July, the discount was about 5.8 US dollars/ton [41]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: In June, the average domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was about 3,403 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [46]. - Inventory: In June, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 462,000 tons, the bonded area inventory increased to 119,000 tons, the aluminum bar inventory increased to 159,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased to 346,000 tons and increased slightly at the beginning of July [49][52][55]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Since June, the domestic bauxite price has fluctuated slightly upwards, and the overseas bauxite price has remained stable [62]. - Alumina Price: In June, the domestic and overseas alumina prices both weakened [67]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In June, the anode price decreased, and the thermal coal price stabilized and rebounded [70]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In June, China's alumina actual operating capacity increased by 3.1%, the operating rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with sufficient supply [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity decreased slightly, and the output decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. In July, the overall operating capacity would remain high [79]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: In June, the aluminum bar processing fee weakened, but the aluminum water ratio remained at a relatively high level. It was expected to decline in July [82]. 6. Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Out - warehouse: In June, the aluminum ingot out - warehouse volume decreased month - on - month but remained higher than the same period last year [87]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In June, the aluminum bar operating rate was expected to increase slightly month - on - month, while the operating rates of aluminum profiles, plate - strip - foil, and some other products decreased [90][94]. - Terminal Demand: In July, the demand for home appliances weakened, the real - estate data remained weak, the automobile production and sales were okay, and the photovoltaic - related demand faced pressure [102]. 7. Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In May, the primary aluminum import volume decreased month - on - month, and the import loss widened in June [105]. - Aluminum Products: In May, the aluminum product export volume increased month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume from January to May decreased year - on - year [111]. - Bauxite and Alumina: In May, the bauxite import volume increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the alumina export volume increased significantly year - on - year [114].

Summary of Aluminum Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry, discussing supply-demand dynamics, pricing, and profit margins for the upcoming years, particularly 2025 and 2026 [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Profit Expectations**: The expected profit center for aluminum in 2025 is slightly lower than in 2024, with a global surplus increasing from 130,000 tons to 620,000 tons due to tariff issues. Costs are projected to remain between 16,000 to 17,000 RMB per ton [2][3][4]. 2. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: The domestic aluminum market's profit margins are influenced by imported aluminum ingots, scrap aluminum profits, and actual demand gaps. Long-term profitability for smelters is expected, but various factors will affect profit levels [2][4][9]. 3. **Manufacturing Sensitivity**: Manufacturing enterprises have become less sensitive to monetary policy changes, focusing more on new orders and actual demand expansion rather than interest rates [2][11]. 4. **Export Impact**: Exports significantly affect the aluminum market, with the Ningbo Port freight index leading aluminum profits by about two months. Tariff impacts have already affected export sectors, including appliances [2][12]. 5. **Macroeconomic Outlook**: A slowdown in lead consumption growth is anticipated, with expectations for certain sectors' revenue growth adjusted down to around 4%. Uncertainties in overseas manufacturing investments are also noted [2][14]. 6. **Automotive Sector Influence**: The automotive industry is expected to drive aluminum consumption growth by approximately 6%, with a seasonal expansion observed [2][15]. 7. **Electric Grid Construction**: Expected growth in electric grid construction is around 6%, contributing to overall aluminum demand [2][16]. 8. **Global Supply-Demand Balance**: The global aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with a projected surplus of 620,000 tons in 2025, compared to 370,000 tons the previous year [2][19]. 9. **Cost and Profit Margins**: Current aluminum costs are around 16,000 to 17,000 RMB, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum segment exceeding 3,000 RMB. However, margins from imported aluminum and scrap are weakening [2][5][25]. 10. **Long-term Supply Constraints**: Long-term supply constraints are expected in the aluminum market, with potential profit increases anticipated by 2026-2027 despite short-term pressures from tariffs [3][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Scrap Aluminum Supply**: The supply of scrap aluminum is under pressure, affecting profit margins for recycling operations [2][25]. - **Trade Environment**: The trade environment is causing some manufacturers to shift orders to Southeast Asia, but local production requirements limit this strategy [2][27]. - **Demand Data Analysis**: Demand data is derived from various sectors, including electric vehicles, traditional vehicles, and renewable energy components, ensuring comprehensive market analysis [2][35]. - **Future Price Dynamics**: The future price of aluminum will depend on the balance between new production capacity and reductions in output, with current market conditions suggesting a cautious outlook [2][34][41]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the aluminum market, highlighting both current conditions and future expectations.