1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

淡季背景下价格向上阻力加大 铝月报 2025/07/04 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止6月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4383万吨，因产能置换运行产能小幅下降，行业开工率环比下滑，产量 360.9万吨，由于天数原因环比减少约3.2%，同比增长1.6%。进入7月，云南置换项目投产运行，总体电解铝运行产能将维持高位。 ◆ 库存&现货：6月国内铝锭社库减少5.7至46.2万吨，保税区库存环比增加，当月增加约0.3至11.9万吨，铝棒库存小幅增加，铝锭加铝棒库存 维持相对低位，现货升水冲高回落。6月LME库存维持去化趋势，减少2.7至34.6万吨，7月初LME交仓有所增多，现货小幅贴水。 ◆ 进出口：5月原铝进口量环比减少，铝材出口维持偏高水平。6月沪铝现货进口亏损有所扩大，相对不利于进口而有利于 ...

Summary of Aluminum Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry, discussing supply-demand dynamics, pricing, and profit margins for the upcoming years, particularly 2025 and 2026 [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Profit Expectations**: The expected profit center for aluminum in 2025 is slightly lower than in 2024, with a global surplus increasing from 130,000 tons to 620,000 tons due to tariff issues. Costs are projected to remain between 16,000 to 17,000 RMB per ton [2][3][4]. 2. **Domestic Market Dynamics**: The domestic aluminum market's profit margins are influenced by imported aluminum ingots, scrap aluminum profits, and actual demand gaps. Long-term profitability for smelters is expected, but various factors will affect profit levels [2][4][9]. 3. **Manufacturing Sensitivity**: Manufacturing enterprises have become less sensitive to monetary policy changes, focusing more on new orders and actual demand expansion rather than interest rates [2][11]. 4. **Export Impact**: Exports significantly affect the aluminum market, with the Ningbo Port freight index leading aluminum profits by about two months. Tariff impacts have already affected export sectors, including appliances [2][12]. 5. **Macroeconomic Outlook**: A slowdown in lead consumption growth is anticipated, with expectations for certain sectors' revenue growth adjusted down to around 4%. Uncertainties in overseas manufacturing investments are also noted [2][14]. 6. **Automotive Sector Influence**: The automotive industry is expected to drive aluminum consumption growth by approximately 6%, with a seasonal expansion observed [2][15]. 7. **Electric Grid Construction**: Expected growth in electric grid construction is around 6%, contributing to overall aluminum demand [2][16]. 8. **Global Supply-Demand Balance**: The global aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with a projected surplus of 620,000 tons in 2025, compared to 370,000 tons the previous year [2][19]. 9. **Cost and Profit Margins**: Current aluminum costs are around 16,000 to 17,000 RMB, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum segment exceeding 3,000 RMB. However, margins from imported aluminum and scrap are weakening [2][5][25]. 10. **Long-term Supply Constraints**: Long-term supply constraints are expected in the aluminum market, with potential profit increases anticipated by 2026-2027 despite short-term pressures from tariffs [3][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Scrap Aluminum Supply**: The supply of scrap aluminum is under pressure, affecting profit margins for recycling operations [2][25]. - **Trade Environment**: The trade environment is causing some manufacturers to shift orders to Southeast Asia, but local production requirements limit this strategy [2][27]. - **Demand Data Analysis**: Demand data is derived from various sectors, including electric vehicles, traditional vehicles, and renewable energy components, ensuring comprehensive market analysis [2][35]. - **Future Price Dynamics**: The future price of aluminum will depend on the balance between new production capacity and reductions in output, with current market conditions suggesting a cautious outlook [2][34][41]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the aluminum market, highlighting both current conditions and future expectations.