重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.93美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-120元/吨至24530元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-120元/吨至24490元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-115元/ 吨；天津锌现货价较前一交易日-110元/吨至24500元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-75元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-25沪锌主力合约开于24515元/吨，收于24645元/吨，较前一交易日-10元/吨，全天交易日成交52469 手，全天交易日持仓26600手，日内价格最高点达到24705元/吨，最低点达到24455元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 现货市场恢复尚需时间 库存方面：截至2026-02-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为20.97万吨，较上期变化4.94万吨。截止2026-02-25，LME 锌库存为99825吨，较上一交易日变化-1425吨。 市场分析 节后现货市场成交情况仍需时间，下游尚在放假期间，现货升贴水难有表现。海外不确定扰动仍然存在，地缘政 治危机、关税调整以及降息大周期不改，同时需要警惕矿产资源保护风险外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Overseas premiums have strengthened further, LME inventories have continued to decline, and the risk of warehouse receipts has intensified. The export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand, and the profit of overseas selling for delivery has emerged, which will stimulate later exports and help reduce domestic social inventories. The domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC has continued to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the internal and external zinc price ratio, there is also a possibility that the processing fees will follow suit. In the spot market, with the opening of the export window, the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected, or even show a seasonal de - stocking trend, and the actual consumption performance exceeds expectations. Although smelting still has profits, the comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed due to the decline of domestic TC. If this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, it will also hit the smelting enthusiasm, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - positive factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $338.74 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 210 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong zinc spot premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,030 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 164,360 lots, and the open interest throughout the trading day was 124,740 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,025 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons compared with the previous period. As of October 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous trading day. [3]