国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -65 -190 155 -6,630 -105 -6,210 -65 -190 155 -6,630 -105 -8,000 -6,210 -4,000 0 4,000 元/吨 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 升贴水 14.98 -17.33 -45.20 -223.90 -43.10 -52.00 14.98 -17.33 -45.20 -223.90 -43.10 -52.00 -300 -200 -100 0 100 美元/吨 20260108申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低1.93%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 现货升贴水坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化650元/吨至23970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水105元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日630元/吨至23870元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日680元/吨至23890元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05沪锌主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23820元/吨，较前一交易日525元/吨，全天交易日成交 141147手，全天交易日持仓89942手，日内价格最高点达到23930元/吨，最低点达到23400元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-05，LME 锌库存为105850吨，较上一交易日变化-475吨。 市场分析 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 节后第 ...

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22405 | 130 | 220 | 835 | 1800 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22520 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2957 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 367 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 353637 | 124288 | 128016 | 150656 | 202421 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 299641 | 9167 | -15452 | -48192 | 9302 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $165.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 190 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 170 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 180 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton and closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 128,295 lots, and the position was 105,756 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a change of -3,800 tons from the previous period. As of December 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 52,025 tons, a change of 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Strategy - **Single-sided**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Inter-period positive spread arbitrage [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the sentiment of industrial silicon being boosted and polysilicon's quotation rising and sentiment continuing to be boosted [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both rated as having a trend strength of 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,390 yuan/ton, with a change of -235 yuan from T - 1, -210 yuan from T - 5, and -870 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 561,795 lots, and open interest is 279,868 lots [2] - PS2511 closing price is 51,875 yuan/ton, with a change of -385 yuan from T - 1 and 585 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 704,931 lots, and open interest is 150,086 lots [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount shows different values when对标ing different grades, such as +900 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si5530, +450 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si4210, etc [2] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit for Xinjiang new standard 553 is - 2676 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3355 yuan/ton; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.1 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.6 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different changes in different regions [2] Other Products in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Chain - The prices and profit situations of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are also presented, with some showing little change and others having slight price adjustments [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 11000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1032 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 is 20350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 240 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon was exported to 50 countries/regions, with a total export volume of 74006.174 tons and an average price of 9219.38 yuan/ton, with the unit price decreasing by 75.74 yuan month - on - month. The top ten countries/regions in terms of export volume accounted for 80.51% of the total export volume [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2507 opened at 117,440 yuan/ton and closed at 117,450 yuan/ton, a change of -0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,087 lots, and the open interest was 52,007 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it rebounded slightly but was blocked and then oscillated downwards, with a small rebound in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The spot market saw a weak oscillation of nickel prices, and refined nickel traders raised the spot premium, but downstream acceptance was limited, resulting in a light overall spot trading volume. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,581 (103.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,928 (-216) tons [2]. Strategy - The tight supply problem of Indonesian nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cut of smelters, and the cost support has weakened. The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,440 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,087 lots, and the open interest was 185,907 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it fell to a new low and then rebounded slightly. In the afternoon, it rebounded sharply due to the news of Tsingshan's production cut, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest changed little. The nickel - iron transaction reached a new low of 910 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold) for over ten thousand tons, with a delivery period in July. The spot market saw a bottom - rebound of stainless steel prices. In the morning, steel mills lowered their price limits, and traders lowered their spot prices. In the afternoon, the news of steel mills' production cuts drove the price rebound, and merchants' quotes remained stable, with an active inquiry volume and a slightly improved market trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,575 yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 280 to 530 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 915.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Although steel mills have cut production and raw material prices have fallen, with overall weak demand and inventory accumulation, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate and decline in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].