商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 21 日 工业硅：情绪提振 多晶硅：报价抬升，情绪继续提振 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,390 | -235 | -210 | -870 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 561,795 | 123,482 | 51,515 | -699,135 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 279,868 | -6,737 | -4,632 | -103,428 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,875 | -385 | 585 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 704,931 | 124,324 | 309,286 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 150,086 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 库存方面：截至2025-08-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为10.73万吨，较上期变化0.41万吨。截止2025-08-06，LME 锌库存为89225吨，较上一交易日变化-3050吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游原料储备充足采购意愿不强，市场成交冷清，整体升贴水以稳中偏弱走势为主。供应端，7月 中国锌锭产量60.28万吨，同比增加23%，8月预计产量62万吨，同比增速将达到25%，供给压力持续增加。成本端， 海外矿端未有干扰，国产矿TC上涨100元/吨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续。消费端，下游开工率水平表现出 相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应端的高增长，社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。且当 前正值消费淡季，叠加供给压力，锌价压力较大。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 现货升贴水难有好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-13.16美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22330元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-20元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22290元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-60元/吨；天 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 现货升水维持高涨，沪镍窄幅震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-24日沪镍主力合约2507开于117440元/吨，收于117450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.44%，当日成交量 为96087手，持仓量为52007手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅下跌后横盘振荡，日盘开盘小幅反弹受阻后振荡下跌，午后小幅反弹，收十字线。成 交量较上个交易日小幅下降，持仓量较上个交易日小幅下降。美国总统特朗普称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生 效。央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就 业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求。强化结构性货币政策工具激励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持， 发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。菲律宾，矿山报价维持坚挺。受降雨天气影响，装船出货效率不高。现货市 场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约400元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内镍价弱势振荡， 日内镍价偏弱运行，精炼镍贸易商上调现货升贴水，但下游接受程度有限，现货成交整体偏淡。其中金川镍升水 变化250元/吨至3000元/吨，进口镍 ...

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色金属日报 2025-6-23 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价震荡，伦铜周微涨 0.13%至 9660 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78380 元/吨。产业层面，上 周三大交易所库存环比减少 1.0 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 0.1 至 10.0 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.5 至 9.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.7 至 18.3 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]