Core Insights - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF (159980) shows significant investor interest, with a net subscription of 8 million shares and a total scale reaching 2.017 billion yuan, marking a record high since its inception [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 20 days, accumulating a total of 527 million yuan [1] - The five-year net value of the ETF has increased by 70.97%, ranking first among other commodity funds [1] Market Analysis - The market is currently showing resilience against trade tensions, with a lower likelihood of significant impacts compared to earlier in the year, particularly regarding the "TACO" trade [7] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a cooling trend, raising concerns about the dollar's credibility and enhancing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could benefit non-ferrous metal prices [7] - The ongoing issues at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia are contributing to a global copper supply shortage, with projected supply gaps of 53,000 tons and 87,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] ETF Composition - The Dachen Non-Ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is primarily invested in futures of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing upward momentum, supported by positive trends in the underlying nonferrous metal index and significant capital inflows, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 12, 11:15, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) increased by 0.18% [1]. - The underlying index, the Nonferrous Metal Index (IMCI.SHF), has established a bullish trend on both daily and weekly levels [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.207 billion yuan, marking a three-month high [1]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - As of August 11, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) saw net capital inflows in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 79.6212 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Citic Construction Investment Securities noted that poor economic and employment data from the U.S., along with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve governor by Trump, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1]. - The ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize production factors, enhancing profitability across various sectors and improving market expectations, which is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [1]. - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently low, suggesting potential for upward correction [1].

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]