新华财经上海8月25日电（记者魏雨田）8月23日，以"指领增长，聚势共赢"为主题的"2025雪球指数基 金领袖峰会"在上海召开。 当前全球经济正处于重构阶段，资本市场亦孕育着新一轮行情，在此背景 下，本次峰会聚焦指数投资领域的核心议题，邀请指数公司与基金公司从业人士展开深度交流。 会上，参会嘉宾们剖析了指数市场的未来发展方向与监管政策动态，并结合当下市场特征，深入解读行 业轮动周期中的指数投资逻辑，通过梳理底层资产价值、策略适配性与市场趋势的关联，为投资者提供 了专业分析框架。 指数体系高质量进化：ETF迈入"超级配置时代" 2025年，伴随ESG整合与智能因子迭代，指数体系正迈向"高质量进化"。中证指数有限公司研发部总经 理赵永刚表示，指数化投资进入新阶段，ETF成交额占比显著提升，新生代投资者接受度远超预期，国 内发展空间仍大。他提出未来发展的五大方向，即综合类指数、差异化策略指数、沪深港互联互通、恒 定比例的多资产指数，以及结合衍生品的创新型策略产品。 当下，市场正身处一个"ETF超级配置时代"。嘉实基金Smart-Beta和指数投资首席投资官刘斌认为，目 前国内ETF市场规模增速显著快于过去几年，投资 ...

截至8月12日11:15，大成有色ETF（159980.SZ）上涨0.18%。ETF所踪的标的指数上期有色金属指数 （IMCI.SHF）再次确立日线级别看涨，形成日、周线级别看涨共振。指数包含的6个成分商品中，铜 （占比约50%）、铝（占比约16%）、镍（占比约11%）、锡（占比约8%）、铅（占比约8%）同样形 成日、周线级别看涨共振。 资金流入方面，截至8月11日，大成有色ETF（159980.SZ）近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸 金"7962.12万元。大成有色ETF（159980.SZ）最新规模达12.07亿元，创近3月新高。 中信建投证券指出，美国经济及就业数据表现不佳，叠加特朗普提名新美联储理事，强化市场对美联储 于9月降息的预期，有色板块普涨。除却美联储处于降息通道带来的货币宽松外，国内正在推行的"反内 卷"优化生产要素，提升各环节盈利能力和改善市场预期，有利于金属价格上涨向下游的传导。此外， 工业金属板块的估值处于偏低的水平，亦有向上修复的空间。EPS与PE双击的有色牛市正在启动。 大成有色ETF（159980.SZ）底层资产配置的是上海期货交易所的铜、铝、铅、锡、锌、镍等有色金属 期 ...

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall rebound space of commodities may be limited as the industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, and based on the synchronicity between industry profit and inflation, the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index in the short term may be restricted [4][19][21] - Energy transformation drives the long - term divergence in the trends of new energy metals and energy chemicals. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Commodity ETF Underlying Assets and Correlation Research - Comprehensive commodity indices have a high correlation with PPI year - on - year. The year - on - year trend of Nanhua Comprehensive Commodity Index leads the change of China's PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80; the year - on - year trend of RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index leads the change of the US unadjusted PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.91 [9] - The internal correlation among the three major domestic commodity ETFs is low. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a low correlation with the other two industrial - category commodity ETFs due to its agricultural product nature. The correlation between Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF and Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is only 52.95%. Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index has the highest correlation with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF, reaching 92.76%, and Nanhua Energy Chemicals Index has a relatively high correlation of 80.73% with Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a relatively low correlation of 61.45% with Nanhua Agricultural Products Index [10] - The basic operation for commodity ETF configuration is three - step: optimize the portfolio based on the difference in industrial driving strength, then use the risk exposure determined by rolling PCA factors for allocation to simulate or even exceed the long - term trend of the comprehensive commodity index (i.e., inflation), and conduct subjective systematic timing on this basis to optimize the risk - return characteristics of the portfolio [12] 2. Industrial Driving and Fundamental Changes of Core Varieties - In the long term, energy transformation policies cause the demand growth rates of new energy metals and traditional energy to diverge. The energy chemical sector's support weakens due to the decline in the raw material valuation center, while the non - ferrous metals sector is stronger. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] - In the short and medium term, the valuation of commodity ETFs is affected by the supply - demand and valuation of underlying assets. Most non - ferrous metal inventories continue to decline, while the inventories of some chemical products such as thermal coal and PTA are at historical highs. The downstream consumption of non - ferrous metals is relatively stable, and the inventory control ability is relatively strong. Currently, the valuation of soybean meal is at a relatively low level in the long - term, and there are still many uncertainties in US soybean yield, export policies, and crushing demand [15] - In the short term, electrolytic aluminum in the non - ferrous metals sector may maintain a relatively high multi - allocation popularity, with support from supply disturbances at the mine end, terminal consumption resilience, and continuously low inventories [16] 3. Macro Driving and Market Style Rotation - Overseas, the US losing its last AAA credit rating raises its debt - repayment and financing costs. Japan's interest - rate hike expectation supports the upward movement of the long - end yield of Japanese government bonds, increasing the liquidity pressure on US Treasury bonds. The auction of US Treasury bonds encounters difficulties, and the yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds reaches a high of 5.117%. Geopolitical conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are difficult to ease in the short term. Domestically, most economic and financial data in April fell short of expectations [13] - In the commodity market in the week of May 23, 2025, precious metals, Treasury bond futures, and agricultural products outperformed industrial products. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF recorded a positive return, while the two industrial - nature commodity ETFs recorded negative returns, with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF being relatively more resilient [2][13] 4. Allocation Recommendations - Back - testing results show that the allocation using rolling PCA factors can achieve return characteristics consistent with the comprehensive commodity index/PPI year - on - year in the long term. The existing three domestic commodity ETFs' portfolio has better elasticity in the upward cycle. Allocation can anchor the trend of inflation - related assets, and subjective systematic timing can be carried out based on changes in macro and industrial driving forces [18] - The industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, so the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index may be limited [19][21] - The multi - allocation suggestions are as follows: Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF is recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐), Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is not recommended for multi - allocation, and Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is strongly recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐⭐) [5][22]