Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen a significant increase of 1.87% as of September 25, 2025, with a trading volume of 1.45 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.44% [1] - Over the past 14 days, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 291 million yuan, bringing its total size to 1.682 billion yuan and shares to 981 million, both reaching record highs since inception [1] - LME copper prices have surged to a 15-month high, with a single-day increase of 3.2%, marking the largest rise in nearly five months [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has suspended production due to a landslide, leading Freeport to lower its 2026 production guidance by 35%, with potential resumption delayed until 2027, exacerbating global copper supply tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to provide long-term support for copper prices, especially in a constrained supply environment, as it may stimulate inflation expectations [2] - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF is primarily invested in futures of nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2]

Group 1: Industry Trends and Developments - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring phase, creating new opportunities in capital markets, particularly in index investment [1] - The ETF market is entering a "super allocation era," with significant growth in transaction volume and acceptance among new generation investors [2] - The innovation drug sector is transitioning from a "valuation lowland" to an "innovation highland," with potential for a 20% annual profit growth over the next decade [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Investment strategies should focus on identifying opportunities in industries recovering from intense competition, rather than chasing hot sectors [7] - A "core + satellite" investment structure is recommended, using broad-based indices as a foundation while incorporating high-growth sectors for balanced risk and return [6] - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth point for the military-civilian integration of the aerospace industry, supported by favorable policies [5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The robotics industry is accelerating due to the smart wave and supportive policies, with investment opportunities linked to order fulfillment and domestic substitution [4] - The renewable energy sector is characterized by a "full-chain collaboration" approach, optimizing the supply chain and creating new demand for materials like copper [6] - The ETF market is seeing a shift towards more differentiated strategies, including factor-based and fixed-income enhanced ETFs, indicating a diversification of investment approaches [3][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing upward momentum, supported by positive trends in the underlying nonferrous metal index and significant capital inflows, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 12, 11:15, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) increased by 0.18% [1]. - The underlying index, the Nonferrous Metal Index (IMCI.SHF), has established a bullish trend on both daily and weekly levels [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.207 billion yuan, marking a three-month high [1]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - As of August 11, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) saw net capital inflows in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 79.6212 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Citic Construction Investment Securities noted that poor economic and employment data from the U.S., along with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve governor by Trump, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1]. - The ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize production factors, enhancing profitability across various sectors and improving market expectations, which is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [1]. - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently low, suggesting potential for upward correction [1].

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall rebound space of commodities may be limited as the industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, and based on the synchronicity between industry profit and inflation, the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index in the short term may be restricted [4][19][21] - Energy transformation drives the long - term divergence in the trends of new energy metals and energy chemicals. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Commodity ETF Underlying Assets and Correlation Research - Comprehensive commodity indices have a high correlation with PPI year - on - year. The year - on - year trend of Nanhua Comprehensive Commodity Index leads the change of China's PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80; the year - on - year trend of RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index leads the change of the US unadjusted PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.91 [9] - The internal correlation among the three major domestic commodity ETFs is low. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a low correlation with the other two industrial - category commodity ETFs due to its agricultural product nature. The correlation between Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF and Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is only 52.95%. Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index has the highest correlation with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF, reaching 92.76%, and Nanhua Energy Chemicals Index has a relatively high correlation of 80.73% with Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a relatively low correlation of 61.45% with Nanhua Agricultural Products Index [10] - The basic operation for commodity ETF configuration is three - step: optimize the portfolio based on the difference in industrial driving strength, then use the risk exposure determined by rolling PCA factors for allocation to simulate or even exceed the long - term trend of the comprehensive commodity index (i.e., inflation), and conduct subjective systematic timing on this basis to optimize the risk - return characteristics of the portfolio [12] 2. Industrial Driving and Fundamental Changes of Core Varieties - In the long term, energy transformation policies cause the demand growth rates of new energy metals and traditional energy to diverge. The energy chemical sector's support weakens due to the decline in the raw material valuation center, while the non - ferrous metals sector is stronger. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] - In the short and medium term, the valuation of commodity ETFs is affected by the supply - demand and valuation of underlying assets. Most non - ferrous metal inventories continue to decline, while the inventories of some chemical products such as thermal coal and PTA are at historical highs. The downstream consumption of non - ferrous metals is relatively stable, and the inventory control ability is relatively strong. Currently, the valuation of soybean meal is at a relatively low level in the long - term, and there are still many uncertainties in US soybean yield, export policies, and crushing demand [15] - In the short term, electrolytic aluminum in the non - ferrous metals sector may maintain a relatively high multi - allocation popularity, with support from supply disturbances at the mine end, terminal consumption resilience, and continuously low inventories [16] 3. Macro Driving and Market Style Rotation - Overseas, the US losing its last AAA credit rating raises its debt - repayment and financing costs. Japan's interest - rate hike expectation supports the upward movement of the long - end yield of Japanese government bonds, increasing the liquidity pressure on US Treasury bonds. The auction of US Treasury bonds encounters difficulties, and the yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds reaches a high of 5.117%. Geopolitical conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are difficult to ease in the short term. Domestically, most economic and financial data in April fell short of expectations [13] - In the commodity market in the week of May 23, 2025, precious metals, Treasury bond futures, and agricultural products outperformed industrial products. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF recorded a positive return, while the two industrial - nature commodity ETFs recorded negative returns, with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF being relatively more resilient [2][13] 4. Allocation Recommendations - Back - testing results show that the allocation using rolling PCA factors can achieve return characteristics consistent with the comprehensive commodity index/PPI year - on - year in the long term. The existing three domestic commodity ETFs' portfolio has better elasticity in the upward cycle. Allocation can anchor the trend of inflation - related assets, and subjective systematic timing can be carried out based on changes in macro and industrial driving forces [18] - The industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, so the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index may be limited [19][21] - The multi - allocation suggestions are as follows: Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF is recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐), Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is not recommended for multi - allocation, and Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is strongly recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐⭐) [5][22]