12月18日早盘，商业航天概念强势回归，带动国防军工板块领跑全市场！截至发稿，国防军工行业涨幅、主力净流入额均高居全行业首位！ | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 801740 | 国防军工(申万) | 1805.22 | 1.88% | 80.75 Z | | 801880 | 汽车(申万) | 7600.14 | 0.11% | 49.82亿 | | 801050 | 有色全属(申万) | 7802.20 | 0.98% | 44.41亿 | 汇聚军工核心资产的国防军工ETF（512810）低开高走，盘中一度涨近2%再创近2个月新高！场内快速放量，成交超5600万元，接近上日全天 成交额。 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 所覆盖的商业航天相关成份股集体飙升，铂力特、中科星图涨12%，奥普光电一字板，中国卫星涨停。 风险提示：国防军工ETF被动跟踪中证军工指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2013.12.26。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举， 不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 大运载时代：百箭争流，共绘天疆新图景 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、力箭一号和长征十二号发射验证国内火箭大运 力能力 2025 年 12 月，我国商业航天两大运力平台接连完成 重要发射，验证了本土火箭的大运力能力。力箭一号 以"一箭九星"方式成功发射，标志着该民营固体火 箭进入规模化运营阶段。其 500 公里太阳同步轨道运 力达 1.5 吨，运载系数达 1.12%，达到同级别印度火 箭的四倍以上。凭借高性价比优势，已累计将 84 颗 卫星（总重超 11 吨）送入太空。长征十二号作为我 国最强单芯级火箭，近地轨道运力不低于 12 吨，首 次验证了大规模星座组网发射能力。该火箭采用泵后 摆发动机技术，在 3.8 米直径箭体内实现了四发并 联，支撑了大运力光杆构型。其 5.2 米大直径整流罩 为各类载荷提供了充足空间，成为未来星座建设的主 力运载平台。 谷神星二号（遥一箭）将于 2025 年 12 月 15 日在酒 泉发射中心首飞，采用"三级固体+液体上面级"的 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Commercial Space Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese commercial space industry**, highlighting the competition among various companies developing **reusable rockets** such as **Zhuque-3**, **Tianlong-3**, **Shuangqiuxian-3**, **Xingyun-1**, and **Long March 12** [1][2][4] - The industry is at a critical juncture of **technological breakthroughs** and **industrialization** [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Zhuque-3** has faced delays not only due to environmental factors but also due to strategic adjustments by the **National Space Administration** and technical reviews, with **Long March 12** set to undertake the initial launch [1][4] - The **fuel choice** for Chinese reusable rockets is leaning towards **liquid oxygen and methane**, which is cheaper compared to **liquid oxygen and kerosene** used by SpaceX [4][18] - Current launch costs for the **Long March series** are approximately **70,000-100,000 RMB/kg** (around **10,000-14,000 USD/kg**), while the goal for new reusable rockets is to reduce this to **20,000-30,000 RMB/kg** (approximately **2,800-4,200 USD/kg**) [4][5] - The **expected increase** in launch numbers for 2026 is projected to be **2-3 times** that of 2025, with a **5-fold increase** in capacity, driven by various satellite projects and advancements in reusable rocket technology [3][21] Technical Differences and Challenges - Reusable rockets differ significantly from traditional rockets in terms of **structural design**, **engine capabilities**, and **control systems** [6][8] - The **engine** of reusable rockets must support **variable thrust**, multiple ignitions, and precise landing controls, which presents higher technical demands [6][11] - The **fairing**, a critical component, requires materials that are **lightweight** and can withstand high temperatures, typically made from **carbon fiber composites** and **aluminum honeycomb structures** [3][9][10] Market Competitiveness - The **Chinese commercial space sector** aims to enhance its global competitiveness by narrowing the cost gap with international players like SpaceX, which has significantly lower launch costs [5][22] - Companies like **Nanjing Aerospace** and **Deep Blue Aerospace** are leading in the development of **3D printing technologies** for rocket engines, which can reduce costs by about **40%** and improve production efficiency [13][14] Future Outlook - The establishment of the **Commercial Space Administration** by the National Space Administration indicates a strategic focus on the development and launch of commercial space projects [4] - The industry faces challenges in ensuring successful multiple launches in 2026 and improving production capabilities, but ongoing collaborations between governments and commercial companies are expected to address these limitations [22]

Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite market is becoming a strategic focus in the US-China competition, with the principle of "first come, first served" governing orbital and frequency resources [1][2] - SpaceX has launched over 10,000 satellites, with more than 8,600 currently operational, while China has only about 300 LEO satellites in orbit, indicating a significant gap that necessitates accelerated deployment [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LEO orbit can accommodate approximately 60,000 satellites, and strict international regulations require timely launches to retain frequency and orbital rights [2] - SpaceX has applied for resources for 42,000 satellites, while Amazon's Kuiper plans to deploy 3,236 satellites; China's China Star Network and Shanghai Yuanxin plans to deploy around 13,000 and 15,000 satellites, respectively [2] Group 2: Launch Capacity and Technology - Rocket launch capacity is a critical metric, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 capable of 22.8 tons to LEO, while China's Long March 8 has a capacity of only 7 tons, highlighting a significant disparity [3] - The development of commercial rockets and reusable technology is progressing rapidly in China, with several private companies achieving successful launches and narrowing the gap with international standards [3] Group 3: Cost Reduction Strategies - SpaceX has reduced the cost of individual satellites to below $500,000 through mass production, while China's satellite manufacturing is also lowering costs via modular design and batch production [4] Group 4: Market Opportunities - LEO satellites are expected to integrate deeply with terrestrial 5G networks, enabling global seamless coverage, with significant advancements anticipated by 2025 [5] - The combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and LEO satellites is leading to the development of next-generation intelligent satellite systems, with major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google planning to deploy AI-capable satellites [5] Group 5: Future Developments - China's LEO satellite deployment is entering a rapid networking phase, with recent successful launches indicating an acceleration in the pace of deployment [6][7] - The domestic market is moving towards a "constellation deployment" phase, transitioning from "single satellite customization" [7] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Fudan Microelectronics (688385.SH) and Unisoc (002249.SZ) as potential investment targets in the LEO satellite sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's Starlink program is racing against time to deploy a massive constellation of satellites, with a goal of launching approximately 13,000 satellites by 2034, driven by international regulatory deadlines set by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) [1][3][5] Group 1: Launch Strategy and Goals - China has executed five satellite launches in just 21 days, marking an unprecedented pace in its satellite deployment efforts [1][10] - The ITU has established strict timelines for satellite deployment, requiring at least one satellite in orbit within seven years, 10% of the total by the ninth year, 50% by the twelfth year, and 100% by the fourteenth year [3][5][6] - By 2029, China needs to have approximately 1,300 satellites in orbit, with a significant ramp-up in launch frequency required to meet these targets [11][12] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - SpaceX's Starlink has set a high bar with its rapid deployment of thousands of satellites, creating pressure on other competitors like China's Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper [6][9] - Amazon's Kuiper project, aiming to deploy 3,200 satellites, is also under time constraints, having launched over 100 satellites recently [7][9] - The competitive environment is characterized by a race to secure frequency and orbital resources, with the potential for significant consequences for those who fail to meet deployment milestones [6][18] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - China's current strategy involves multiple rocket types being launched in parallel to meet immediate deployment needs, but this approach may not be sustainable long-term due to complexity and cost pressures [11][15] - To meet future demands, China must increase the payload capacity of its rockets and establish a more efficient launch cadence, potentially moving towards reusable rocket technology [12][14][15] - The development of the Long March 12 rocket, which may evolve into a reusable platform, is seen as a critical step in enhancing China's launch capabilities [14][15] Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Implications - The ITU's deadlines are not just formalities; failure to meet them could result in reduced frequency allocations or even project termination [18][19] - The case of Rivada, which received a waiver despite not launching any satellites, illustrates that demonstrating credible progress can provide some leeway in regulatory compliance [18][19] - For China, the focus must be on consistent satellite launches and production capabilities to avoid reliance on potential regulatory leniency [19]