9月17日收盘时，腾讯和阿里总市值分别达到6.06万亿港元和3.08万亿港元，按9月18日收盘时的股价计 算，腾讯最新市值5.88万亿港元、阿里3.02万亿港元。虽然两家科技巨头未能延续增长趋势，但V型走 势已经形成，代表了中国科技公司在资本市场的吸引力。 单论股价，目前腾讯的642港元股价距730港元的历史最高时刻仅几步之遥，阿里的166.17港元较五年前 的超300港元也还有一段距离。这种分化是两家企业在战略聚焦与技术转化效率上的周期表现，腾讯 以"精准投入+生态协同"构建穿越周期的护城河，阿里在"技术研发与业务扩张"的平衡中寻找节奏。 那三年 从2022年10月31日的170.17港元，到2025年9月18日盘中的664.5港元，腾讯用三年时间完成290%的股价 反弹。9月18日，腾讯以642港元收盘，虽然从6万亿港元的市值区间滑落，但从2025年来看，腾讯股价 已从400多港元涨至超600港元。 阿里股价也呈现类似走势，如果以9月18日收盘时的166.17港元画一条线，上一次股价处在这一水平是 在2021年10月。2025年至今，阿里港股股价从80多港元涨至近170港元。 "2025年的市场环境为科技 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) with a target price of HK$ 150 [1][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 2%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 45.74 billion, down 11% year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% year-over-year. The performance met market expectations, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. - The company's investment in instant retail is beginning to yield results, with e-commerce growth aligning with market expectations. Despite a slight decline in profits due to competition, Alibaba's performance outpaced rivals like Meituan and JD.com [9]. - The cloud intelligence segment reported revenue of RMB 33.4 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in public cloud services and AI product adoption. Profitability in this segment improved, with a profit margin of 8.8% [9]. - Capital expenditures for FY26Q1 were RMB 38.6 billion, a significant increase of 224% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud services. The company plans to invest RMB 380 billion in AI over the next three years [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Industry: Retail [2] - H-Share Price (as of 2025/08/29): HK$ 115.70 [2] - Market Capitalization: RMB 193.66 billion [2] - Major Shareholder: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3.57%) [2] Financial Performance - Q1 FY2026 Revenue: RMB 247.65 billion, YOY +2% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 45.74 billion, YOY -11% [7] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: RMB 33.51 billion, YOY -18% [7] E-commerce and Cloud Business - Instant retail revenue: RMB 14.8 billion, YOY +12% [9] - Daily average orders for instant retail: 120 million in July, 80 million in August [9] - Cloud intelligence revenue: RMB 33.4 billion, YOY +26% [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - FY26Q1 Capital Expenditure: RMB 38.6 billion, YOY +224% [9] - Planned AI investment over three years: RMB 380 billion [9] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028: RMB 116.33 billion, RMB 139.39 billion, RMB 160.77 billion respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 996.347 billion RMB, with a net profit growth of 76.81% to 125.976 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for AI [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - Revenue increased by 5.86% to 996.347 billion RMB [4] - Operating profit grew by 24.34% to 140.905 billion RMB [4] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 62.46% to 129.470 billion RMB [4] AI and Cloud Services - Alibaba Cloud's revenue saw double-digit growth, with AI-related product revenue achieving three-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1][11] - The company has released and open-sourced multiple models, with the latest model, Qwen3, performing well in global evaluations [11] E-commerce Growth - Domestic and international e-commerce segments experienced growth, with the international retail business of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) achieving a 33% revenue increase [8] - The number of high-quality consumers in the 88VIP membership program exceeded 50 million [8] Operational Efficiency - Various internet platform businesses improved operational efficiency, with Lazada's unit economics continuing to enhance [8] - The local life group saw a healthy growth in order volume, significantly narrowing losses, while Youku's losses also decreased [8] Future Outlook - The company emphasizes a startup mentality to capture opportunities in the AI-driven transformation expected over the next decade [10][11]

Group 1 - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit growth of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [1] - Alibaba Cloud experienced double-digit revenue growth driven by strong AI demand, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - The international digital commerce group saw a revenue increase of 29% year-on-year, reflecting strong performance in cross-border business [1] Group 2 - The company successfully exited non-core assets such as Hema and Intime, enhancing operational efficiency across multiple internet platforms [1] - Alibaba has released and open-sourced over 200 models, with the latest model, Qwen3, achieving over 12.5 million downloads globally within a month of release [1] - Alibaba Cloud accelerated the internationalization of AI products, providing cloud computing services in 34 regions worldwide as of March 31, 2025 [1] Group 3 - The customer management revenue (CMR) for Taobao and Tmall accelerated to a 6% year-on-year growth, with the 88VIP membership exceeding 50 million [2] - The international retail business of Alibaba's International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) achieved a 33% revenue growth, driven by the performance of AliExpress and Trendyol [2] - Alibaba optimized capital allocation by selling non-core assets, focusing on core business areas, and increasing strategic investments in AI [2] Group 4 - Lazada's unit economics improved, and the overseas e-commerce business is expected to achieve overall profitability in the next fiscal year [3] - The local life group saw a healthy growth in order volume, with significant loss reduction, and Gaode achieved quarterly profitability in Q3 [3] - The flagship AI application Quark saw rapid user growth, surpassing 200 million monthly active users by the end of fiscal year 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's financial performance for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by strategic focus on AI and cloud services [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Alibaba reported revenue of 236.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and an annual revenue of 996.347 billion RMB, up 6% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 was 11.973 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 1203%, while the annual net profit reached 125.976 billion RMB, a 77% increase [1]. Segment Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q4 grew by 18% year-on-year, with annual revenue achieving double-digit growth [2]. - Taotian Group's customer management revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, driven by improvements in Takerate and the effectiveness of "full-site promotion" [2][7]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The CEO highlighted that the "user-first, AI-driven" strategy is yielding results, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [2][4]. - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years to support this growth [4]. Shareholder Returns - Alibaba announced a total dividend and special dividend of 4.6 billion USD for the fiscal year 2025, reinforcing its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [2]. Market Trends - The company is witnessing a growing demand for AI applications across various industries, including traditional sectors like agriculture and manufacturing [5][6]. - The number of 88VIP members, the highest spending consumer group on Taobao and Tmall, continues to grow at a double-digit rate, exceeding 50 million [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, indicating a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a projected EBITA of 170388 million yuan for FY25, showing a slight increase of 3.25% year-over-year [11]. Business Segments - Taobao Group is valued using a PE method, with a projected market value of 15686 million yuan based on a 10x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, valued at 8500 million yuan using a 6x PS ratio [21]. - The International Digital Commerce Group is still in the expansion phase and is valued at 1691 million yuan using a PS method [21]. - Cainiao Group is projected to have a stable profit level, valued at 121 billion yuan based on an 11x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Local Life Group is valued at 1510 million yuan using a PS method, reflecting its current non-profitable status [21]. - The Entertainment Group is valued at 449 million yuan based on a PS method, considering the valuation of Alibaba Pictures [21].