Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$ 180 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2026 Q2 revenue of RMB 247.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding disposed businesses, the revenue growth was 15%. Operating profit decreased by 85% to RMB 5.4 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 53% to RMB 21 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The core e-commerce business remains stable, with customer management revenue increasing by 10% to RMB 78.9 billion, driven by the improved penetration of the service fee model and a significant rise in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app [9]. - The timely retail business experienced rapid growth, with revenue up 60%, and losses are expected to decrease in line with market forecasts [9]. - Cloud business revenue exceeded market expectations, reaching RMB 39.8 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, primarily due to growth in public cloud services and increased adoption of AI-related products [9]. - Capital expenditures remain high at RMB 31.4 billion, with a potential increase in the three-year total spending guidance to RMB 380 billion, reflecting continued strong investment in AI [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2026, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 116.3 billion, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with EPS of RMB 6.12, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 23.58 [11]. - The company’s net profit for FY2024 and FY2025 is expected to be RMB 80.0 billion and RMB 130.1 billion, respectively, with significant growth in FY2025 [11]. Market Position - The company holds a market capitalization of HK$ 175.3 billion, with a share price of HK$ 157.80 as of November 25, 2025 [2]. - The stock has shown a significant increase of 85.92% over the past month, although it has decreased by 9.10% over the past year [2]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include JPMorgan Chase & Co., holding 3.57% of the shares [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent and Alibaba have shown a V-shaped recovery in their stock prices, indicating the attractiveness of Chinese tech companies in the capital market, despite not maintaining a growth trend recently [1][3]. Group 1: Market Capitalization and Stock Performance - As of September 17, Tencent's market capitalization was 6.06 trillion HKD, while Alibaba's was 3.08 trillion HKD. By September 18, Tencent's market cap decreased to 5.88 trillion HKD and Alibaba's to 3.02 trillion HKD [1]. - Tencent's stock price has rebounded 290% from 170.17 HKD on October 31, 2022, to 664.5 HKD on September 18, 2025 [3]. - Alibaba's stock price increased from over 80 HKD to nearly 170 HKD since 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Environment and Investment Sentiment - The market environment for tech stocks has improved, driven by breakthroughs in domestic models like DeepSeek, leading to a 37% average increase in valuations for Chinese AI-related companies over the past year [3][4]. - Tencent announced a share buyback plan totaling 112 billion HKD for 2024, signaling confidence in its stock [4]. - Goldman Sachs has increased its target price for Tencent to 701 HKD and for Alibaba from 158 HKD to 174 HKD, reflecting growing investor confidence [5]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Business Models - Tencent has built a robust moat through "precise investment and ecological synergy," while Alibaba is balancing "technology research and business expansion" [1][7]. - Tencent's diversified ecosystem, including gaming, fintech, and advertising, provides stronger risk resistance compared to Alibaba's reliance on e-commerce [7][8]. - Both companies are leveraging the AI wave, with Tencent optimizing existing businesses and Alibaba investing in future technologies [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Alibaba reported revenue of 247.65 billion CNY, a 2% year-on-year increase, while Tencent's revenue was 184.5 billion CNY, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [8]. - Tencent's non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18%, while Alibaba's net profit decreased by 18% [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) with a target price of HK$ 150 [1][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 2%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 45.74 billion, down 11% year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% year-over-year. The performance met market expectations, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. - The company's investment in instant retail is beginning to yield results, with e-commerce growth aligning with market expectations. Despite a slight decline in profits due to competition, Alibaba's performance outpaced rivals like Meituan and JD.com [9]. - The cloud intelligence segment reported revenue of RMB 33.4 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in public cloud services and AI product adoption. Profitability in this segment improved, with a profit margin of 8.8% [9]. - Capital expenditures for FY26Q1 were RMB 38.6 billion, a significant increase of 224% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud services. The company plans to invest RMB 380 billion in AI over the next three years [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Industry: Retail [2] - H-Share Price (as of 2025/08/29): HK$ 115.70 [2] - Market Capitalization: RMB 193.66 billion [2] - Major Shareholder: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3.57%) [2] Financial Performance - Q1 FY2026 Revenue: RMB 247.65 billion, YOY +2% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 45.74 billion, YOY -11% [7] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: RMB 33.51 billion, YOY -18% [7] E-commerce and Cloud Business - Instant retail revenue: RMB 14.8 billion, YOY +12% [9] - Daily average orders for instant retail: 120 million in July, 80 million in August [9] - Cloud intelligence revenue: RMB 33.4 billion, YOY +26% [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - FY26Q1 Capital Expenditure: RMB 38.6 billion, YOY +224% [9] - Planned AI investment over three years: RMB 380 billion [9] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028: RMB 116.33 billion, RMB 139.39 billion, RMB 160.77 billion respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 996.347 billion RMB, with a net profit growth of 76.81% to 125.976 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for AI [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - Revenue increased by 5.86% to 996.347 billion RMB [4] - Operating profit grew by 24.34% to 140.905 billion RMB [4] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 62.46% to 129.470 billion RMB [4] AI and Cloud Services - Alibaba Cloud's revenue saw double-digit growth, with AI-related product revenue achieving three-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1][11] - The company has released and open-sourced multiple models, with the latest model, Qwen3, performing well in global evaluations [11] E-commerce Growth - Domestic and international e-commerce segments experienced growth, with the international retail business of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) achieving a 33% revenue increase [8] - The number of high-quality consumers in the 88VIP membership program exceeded 50 million [8] Operational Efficiency - Various internet platform businesses improved operational efficiency, with Lazada's unit economics continuing to enhance [8] - The local life group saw a healthy growth in order volume, significantly narrowing losses, while Youku's losses also decreased [8] Future Outlook - The company emphasizes a startup mentality to capture opportunities in the AI-driven transformation expected over the next decade [10][11]

Group 1 - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit growth of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [1] - Alibaba Cloud experienced double-digit revenue growth driven by strong AI demand, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - The international digital commerce group saw a revenue increase of 29% year-on-year, reflecting strong performance in cross-border business [1] Group 2 - The company successfully exited non-core assets such as Hema and Intime, enhancing operational efficiency across multiple internet platforms [1] - Alibaba has released and open-sourced over 200 models, with the latest model, Qwen3, achieving over 12.5 million downloads globally within a month of release [1] - Alibaba Cloud accelerated the internationalization of AI products, providing cloud computing services in 34 regions worldwide as of March 31, 2025 [1] Group 3 - The customer management revenue (CMR) for Taobao and Tmall accelerated to a 6% year-on-year growth, with the 88VIP membership exceeding 50 million [2] - The international retail business of Alibaba's International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) achieved a 33% revenue growth, driven by the performance of AliExpress and Trendyol [2] - Alibaba optimized capital allocation by selling non-core assets, focusing on core business areas, and increasing strategic investments in AI [2] Group 4 - Lazada's unit economics improved, and the overseas e-commerce business is expected to achieve overall profitability in the next fiscal year [3] - The local life group saw a healthy growth in order volume, with significant loss reduction, and Gaode achieved quarterly profitability in Q3 [3] - The flagship AI application Quark saw rapid user growth, surpassing 200 million monthly active users by the end of fiscal year 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's financial performance for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by strategic focus on AI and cloud services [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Alibaba reported revenue of 236.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and an annual revenue of 996.347 billion RMB, up 6% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 was 11.973 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 1203%, while the annual net profit reached 125.976 billion RMB, a 77% increase [1]. Segment Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q4 grew by 18% year-on-year, with annual revenue achieving double-digit growth [2]. - Taotian Group's customer management revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, driven by improvements in Takerate and the effectiveness of "full-site promotion" [2][7]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The CEO highlighted that the "user-first, AI-driven" strategy is yielding results, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [2][4]. - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years to support this growth [4]. Shareholder Returns - Alibaba announced a total dividend and special dividend of 4.6 billion USD for the fiscal year 2025, reinforcing its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [2]. Market Trends - The company is witnessing a growing demand for AI applications across various industries, including traditional sectors like agriculture and manufacturing [5][6]. - The number of 88VIP members, the highest spending consumer group on Taobao and Tmall, continues to grow at a double-digit rate, exceeding 50 million [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, indicating a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a projected EBITA of 170388 million yuan for FY25, showing a slight increase of 3.25% year-over-year [11]. Business Segments - Taobao Group is valued using a PE method, with a projected market value of 15686 million yuan based on a 10x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, valued at 8500 million yuan using a 6x PS ratio [21]. - The International Digital Commerce Group is still in the expansion phase and is valued at 1691 million yuan using a PS method [21]. - Cainiao Group is projected to have a stable profit level, valued at 121 billion yuan based on an 11x PE ratio for FY26 adjusted net profit [21]. - The Local Life Group is valued at 1510 million yuan using a PS method, reflecting its current non-profitable status [21]. - The Entertainment Group is valued at 449 million yuan based on a PS method, considering the valuation of Alibaba Pictures [21].