9月17日收盘时，腾讯和阿里总市值分别达到6.06万亿港元和3.08万亿港元，按9月18日收盘时的股价计 算，腾讯最新市值5.88万亿港元、阿里3.02万亿港元。虽然两家科技巨头未能延续增长趋势，但V型走 势已经形成，代表了中国科技公司在资本市场的吸引力。 单论股价，目前腾讯的642港元股价距730港元的历史最高时刻仅几步之遥，阿里的166.17港元较五年前 的超300港元也还有一段距离。这种分化是两家企业在战略聚焦与技术转化效率上的周期表现，腾讯 以"精准投入+生态协同"构建穿越周期的护城河，阿里在"技术研发与业务扩张"的平衡中寻找节奏。 那三年 从2022年10月31日的170.17港元，到2025年9月18日盘中的664.5港元，腾讯用三年时间完成290%的股价 反弹。9月18日，腾讯以642港元收盘，虽然从6万亿港元的市值区间滑落，但从2025年来看，腾讯股价 已从400多港元涨至超600港元。 阿里股价也呈现类似走势，如果以9月18日收盘时的166.17港元画一条线，上一次股价处在这一水平是 在2021年10月。2025年至今，阿里港股股价从80多港元涨至近170港元。 "2025年的市场环境为科技 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) with a target price of HK$ 150 [1][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 2%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 45.74 billion, down 11% year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% year-over-year. The performance met market expectations, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7]. - The company's investment in instant retail is beginning to yield results, with e-commerce growth aligning with market expectations. Despite a slight decline in profits due to competition, Alibaba's performance outpaced rivals like Meituan and JD.com [9]. - The cloud intelligence segment reported revenue of RMB 33.4 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in public cloud services and AI product adoption. Profitability in this segment improved, with a profit margin of 8.8% [9]. - Capital expenditures for FY26Q1 were RMB 38.6 billion, a significant increase of 224% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud services. The company plans to invest RMB 380 billion in AI over the next three years [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Industry: Retail [2] - H-Share Price (as of 2025/08/29): HK$ 115.70 [2] - Market Capitalization: RMB 193.66 billion [2] - Major Shareholder: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3.57%) [2] Financial Performance - Q1 FY2026 Revenue: RMB 247.65 billion, YOY +2% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 45.74 billion, YOY -11% [7] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: RMB 33.51 billion, YOY -18% [7] E-commerce and Cloud Business - Instant retail revenue: RMB 14.8 billion, YOY +12% [9] - Daily average orders for instant retail: 120 million in July, 80 million in August [9] - Cloud intelligence revenue: RMB 33.4 billion, YOY +26% [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - FY26Q1 Capital Expenditure: RMB 38.6 billion, YOY +224% [9] - Planned AI investment over three years: RMB 380 billion [9] - Profit forecasts for FY2026-2028: RMB 116.33 billion, RMB 139.39 billion, RMB 160.77 billion respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16% [2][3] Revenue and Growth Projections - The anticipated revenue for Q1 FY26 is 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with growth rates for various segments as follows: Taotian at 9%, International Digital Commerce at 19%, Cloud Intelligence Group at 22%, Local Life at 10%, Cainiao at -5%, and Big Entertainment at 5% [2][3] - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the divestiture of Gaoxin Retail and Intime [3] Segment Analysis - Taotian Group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 6% year-on-year, with a CMR increase of 11%, driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from technology service fees [2] - The Cloud segment is expected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year, supported by increasing AI demand [2] - AIDC is forecasted to grow by 19% year-on-year, with a decrease in adjusted EBITA margin by 6%, but a significant reduction in losses [2] Profitability and Investment Impact - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is estimated at 39.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a margin decline of 3 percentage points [3][4] - Increased investment in instant retail is expected to pressure short-term profits but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [4] Future Revenue and Profit Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,062.3 billion, 1,149.0 billion, and 1,217.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of +1.0%, +2.2%, and +0.8% [4] - Net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 138.8 billion, 171.8 billion, and 195.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% [4] Valuation - The company is currently valued at a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hang Seng Technology sector for the second half of the year, suggesting that the sector is worth focusing on due to the presence of many scarce quality assets [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the narrative of asset revaluation in China has gained momentum, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, although valuations remain relatively low. The uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations may impact risk appetite and profit expectations, but domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery [8][13]. - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1. Companies benefiting from AI catalysis and upward fundamental trends, specifically Alibaba and Kuaishou. 2. Companies with solid business models and long-term barriers, actively expanding into overseas markets and food delivery, such as Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD Group [3][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is expected to perform well in the second half of the year due to improving fundamentals and capital conditions [4][13]. - Specific companies to watch include: - **Alibaba**: Expected continued growth in its cloud business and e-commerce, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase in CMR for Q4 FY25 [3][13]. - **Kuaishou**: Anticipated improvement in its e-commerce business due to strategic adjustments by Douyin [3][13]. - **Meituan**: Short-term investments are expected to solidify market share, with a long-term competitive advantage in food delivery [3][13]. - **Pinduoduo**: Focus on ecosystem building, with expectations of profit recovery in the second half of the year [3][13]. - **JD Group**: Strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in active user numbers and order volumes [3][13]. E-commerce Trends - The e-commerce sector is shifting from price competition to differentiation, as major platforms adjust their strategies to focus on GMV rather than solely on price competitiveness [15][18]. - The report notes that Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are all experiencing changes in revenue growth rates, with Alibaba and JD showing acceleration while Pinduoduo faces short-term profit pressures [22][30]. Local Services and Delivery - Meituan's core local business revenue is accelerating, attributed to reduced competition and improved departmental synergy [46][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food delivery as a business with strong network effects, with Meituan expected to maintain a solid competitive position despite short-term challenges [50][54]. Technology Investments - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud computing over the next three years, with its cloud business showing strong growth driven by AI-related products [62][59]. - Kuaishou's AI capabilities are being enhanced with the launch of its upgraded models, which are expected to lead the industry in various performance metrics [63][65].