2025 年 9 月 1 日 | 何利超 | | | --- | --- | | H70529@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(港币) | HK$ 150 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 商贸零售 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/08/29) | | 115.70 | | 恒生指数(2025/08/29) | | 25,077.6 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 141.03/76.81 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 19,072.63 | | H 股数(百万) | | 19,072.63 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 19,366.39 | | | JPMorgan Chase | | | 主要股东 | | & Co.(3.57%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 53.62 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 2.16 | | 一个月 | 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) -1.03% | 3.29% | 47.15% | 近期评等 出刊日期 前日收盘 评等 | 产品组合 | | | --- | --- | | 淘天集团 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for Q1 FY26, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 16% [2][3] Revenue and Growth Projections - The anticipated revenue for Q1 FY26 is 247.8 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with growth rates for various segments as follows: Taotian at 9%, International Digital Commerce at 19%, Cloud Intelligence Group at 22%, Local Life at 10%, Cainiao at -5%, and Big Entertainment at 5% [2][3] - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the divestiture of Gaoxin Retail and Intime [3] Segment Analysis - Taotian Group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 6% year-on-year, with a CMR increase of 11%, driven by site-wide promotions and a 0.6% contribution from technology service fees [2] - The Cloud segment is expected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year, supported by increasing AI demand [2] - AIDC is forecasted to grow by 19% year-on-year, with a decrease in adjusted EBITA margin by 6%, but a significant reduction in losses [2] Profitability and Investment Impact - The adjusted EBITA for Q1 FY26 is estimated at 39.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a margin decline of 3 percentage points [3][4] - Increased investment in instant retail is expected to pressure short-term profits but may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency in the long term [4] Future Revenue and Profit Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,062.3 billion, 1,149.0 billion, and 1,217.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of +1.0%, +2.2%, and +0.8% [4] - Net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 138.8 billion, 171.8 billion, and 195.4 billion respectively, with adjustments of -16.8%, -5.7%, and -2.9% [4] Valuation - The company is currently valued at a PE ratio of 13 times for FY2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hang Seng Technology sector for the second half of the year, suggesting that the sector is worth focusing on due to the presence of many scarce quality assets [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the narrative of asset revaluation in China has gained momentum, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, although valuations remain relatively low. The uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations may impact risk appetite and profit expectations, but domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery [8][13]. - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1. Companies benefiting from AI catalysis and upward fundamental trends, specifically Alibaba and Kuaishou. 2. Companies with solid business models and long-term barriers, actively expanding into overseas markets and food delivery, such as Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD Group [3][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is expected to perform well in the second half of the year due to improving fundamentals and capital conditions [4][13]. - Specific companies to watch include: - **Alibaba**: Expected continued growth in its cloud business and e-commerce, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase in CMR for Q4 FY25 [3][13]. - **Kuaishou**: Anticipated improvement in its e-commerce business due to strategic adjustments by Douyin [3][13]. - **Meituan**: Short-term investments are expected to solidify market share, with a long-term competitive advantage in food delivery [3][13]. - **Pinduoduo**: Focus on ecosystem building, with expectations of profit recovery in the second half of the year [3][13]. - **JD Group**: Strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in active user numbers and order volumes [3][13]. E-commerce Trends - The e-commerce sector is shifting from price competition to differentiation, as major platforms adjust their strategies to focus on GMV rather than solely on price competitiveness [15][18]. - The report notes that Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are all experiencing changes in revenue growth rates, with Alibaba and JD showing acceleration while Pinduoduo faces short-term profit pressures [22][30]. Local Services and Delivery - Meituan's core local business revenue is accelerating, attributed to reduced competition and improved departmental synergy [46][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food delivery as a business with strong network effects, with Meituan expected to maintain a solid competitive position despite short-term challenges [50][54]. Technology Investments - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud computing over the next three years, with its cloud business showing strong growth driven by AI-related products [62][59]. - Kuaishou's AI capabilities are being enhanced with the launch of its upgraded models, which are expected to lead the industry in various performance metrics [63][65].