Ac t i o n | 08 Jan 2026 09:37:26 ET │ 26 pages Alibaba Group Holding FY3Q26 Preview: Softer Macro & High Base for CMR; Cloud Intact CITI'S TAKE As highlighted in our JD and VIPS notes, following soft Nov retail sales and our expectation of Dec sales could be further weakening from Nov, we now expect BABA's FY3Q26 GMV and CMR to be lower than our previous forecast. We now model CMR to +2.7% yoy reflecting slower GMV and lapse of 0.6% fee and AI tool Quanzhantui benefit. While UE loss from Shangou improved s ...

证券日报网讯1月8日，两面针（600249）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前公司进出口业务依托 阿里巴巴国际站、中国制造网以及Lazada、Shopee、Tiktok等跨境出海平台拓宽海外业务；在传统渠道 上通过存量市场维稳与价值深挖，巩固基本盘，激活市场潜能，并尝试以新品驱动利润提升。 ...

物流行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 全球供应链重塑驱动中国物流企业出海，新兴市场如东南亚和拉丁美洲 成为增长点，中国资本输出创造海外新需求，主要模式包括跟随矿企、 制造业和电商平台出海，其中跟随矿企和电商平台出海爆发力较强。 东南亚电商市场由腾讯、字节跳动和阿里巴巴控股的 Shopee、TikTok Shop 和 Lazada 主导，占据半数以上市场份额，渗透率快速提升；拉 丁美洲市场中资背景的 Shopee、Temu 和 SHEIN 也在快速进入并提升 市占率。 极兔速递通过分利体系迅速拓展海外业务，深度绑定总部与代理商利益， 复制国内成功模式，在东南亚快递市场份额突破 32%，并计划拓展中东 和拉丁美洲市场，上半年东南亚包裹量增速超 63%，三季度达 78%。 跟随矿企出海需要交通运输企业提供基础设施配套以换取海外资源，中 非合作采取基建换资源形式，中资投资非洲超过 1/4 港口，并参与核心 通道收费公路及口岸建设，嘉友国际复制跨境边境口岸开发经验至非洲。 国内快递行业从价格竞争转向注重质量、服务与稳定性，互联网流量红 利消失、电商平台竞争加剧导致价格战，但用户增长放缓、电商品质要 ...

Key Takeaways Shopee's GMV climbed over 28% year over year to $32.2B in Q3 2025.Sea Limited relied on shipping subsidies to drive orders, pushing the cost of services up 38.8%.Adjusted EBITDA margin stayed thin at 0.6% amid ongoing shipping and fulfillment pressure.Sea Limited’s (SE) heavy reliance on shipping subsidies has been a key catalyst behind Shopee’s strong GMV expansion, but it also raises concerns about how sustainable that momentum is. In the third quarter of 2025, Shopee delivered strong growth ...

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Alibaba-W (09988.HK) by 5.99 million shares on December 1, 2025, marking a total net increase of 85.34 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 12 occasions, resulting in a cumulative net increase of 112 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold a total of 2.208 billion shares of Alibaba-W, which represents 11.56% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Trading Data Summary - On December 1, 2025, total shares held reached 2.208 billion, with a change of 5.99 million shares, reflecting a 0.27% increase [2] - On November 28, 2025, total shares held were 2.202 billion, with a change of 9.77 million shares, indicating a 0.45% increase [2] - On November 27, 2025, total shares held were 2.192 billion, with a change of 35.39 million shares, showing a 1.64% increase [2] - On November 26, 2025, total shares held were 2.157 billion, with a change of 26.40 million shares, representing a 1.24% increase [2] - On November 25, 2025, total shares held were 2.130 billion, with a change of 7.77 million shares, indicating a 0.37% increase [2] Company Overview - Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides technology infrastructure and marketing platforms, operating through seven business segments [2] - The China commerce segment includes retail businesses such as Taobao, Tmall, and Hema, as well as wholesale operations [2] - The international commerce segment encompasses international retail and wholesale businesses, including Lazada and AliExpress [2] - The local services segment includes location-based services such as Ele.me, Amap, and Fliggy [2] - The Cainiao segment offers domestic and international logistics services and supply chain management solutions [2] - The cloud segment provides public and hybrid cloud services to domestic and international enterprises, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk [2] - The digital media and entertainment segment includes Youku, Quark, Alibaba Pictures, and other content and distribution platforms, as well as online gaming [2] - The innovation and other segment includes DAMO Academy, Tmall Genie, and other businesses [2]

Core Insights - Amazon has launched Amazon Bazaar, a low-cost shopping app targeting 14 countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as part of its strategy to expand its e-commerce presence in competitive markets [2][4][5] - The app is an extension of Amazon Haul, which was previously introduced in the U.S. and parts of Europe and Asia, and aims to compete with platforms like PDD's Temu [3][4] - Amazon's stock experienced a decline of 1.3% to $239.78 amid a broader market downturn, while shares of competitors such as MercadoLibre and Sea Limited also fell [5][7] Amazon's International Strategy - The Bazaar app will offer products primarily priced under $10, with free delivery on minimum purchases, although delivery times may take up to a couple of weeks [5] - Amazon's international revenue grew by 14% year-over-year to $40.9 billion, although operating income fell by 8% to $1.2 billion [11] - The international division was previously unprofitable but showed signs of margin expansion in Q3 2023, excluding severance costs from layoffs [11] Competitive Landscape - E-commerce competition is intensifying in Latin America, with MercadoLibre defending its market share against Amazon and other competitors like Temu and Shein [5][6] - Shopee is also facing increased competition in Southeast Asia from Temu and Alibaba's Lazada [6] - Despite a strong start to the year, shares of MercadoLibre and Sea Limited have pulled back due to competitive concerns, with MercadoLibre down 20% from its mid-May highs [7][8]

Core Insights - Sea's founder, Li Xiaodong, expressed optimism about the company's potential to reach a market value of $1 trillion, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, which he likened to the revolutions of personal computers and smartphones [1] - The company has made significant investments in AI, integrating it into customer service and gaming operations, indicating a shift in strategy compared to previous warnings about the challenges of transitioning to AI [1][2] - Sea's financial health is reportedly stronger than in the past, with all three business segments now profitable, reducing reliance on external funding for growth [2] Company Strategy - The company aims to leverage AI for value creation, emphasizing the need for disciplined execution and competitive spirit to achieve its ambitious market valuation [1] - Li Xiaodong highlighted the importance of making correct decisions and maintaining high discipline as the company navigates the technological transformation [1] - Future plans for AI development were not disclosed, leaving questions about how the company will address increasing competition in the market [2] Competitive Landscape - Sea faces intense competition from global players like TikTok's shop and Alibaba's Lazada, as well as emerging companies like Shein and Temu, in the Southeast Asian e-commerce market [3] - The company is also looking to expand its Shopee online empire into Brazil, indicating a strategy to grow beyond its home market [3] - New initiatives in digital finance and logistics are being pursued to solidify market dominance and reassure investors about growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has experienced significant growth but is highly valued, while Alibaba, despite slower growth, presents a more sustainable valuation opportunity in the current market environment [1][6]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir's annual revenue increased from $1.1 billion in 2020 to $2.9 billion in 2024, achieving profitability in 2023 and more than doubling its net income in 2024 [2]. - Analysts project Palantir's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a CAGR of 38% and 63%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [3]. - The growth is supported by increased government contracts and the expansion of its commercial business, with geopolitical factors favoring its Gotham platform and rising demand for its Foundry services [4]. - Palantir's current market cap is $423 billion, trading at over 300 times next year's earnings and 75 times next year's sales, indicating a potential market cap reduction to $227 billion if valuations normalize [5]. Alibaba Group - Alibaba, the largest e-commerce and cloud infrastructure company in China, trades nearly 50% below its all-time high due to regulatory fines, COVID-19 lockdowns, and U.S.-China trade tensions [7][8]. - The company is stabilizing its business by expanding into higher-growth overseas markets and enhancing its logistics platform [9]. - Alibaba's cloud infrastructure is benefiting from the rollout of its large language models (LLMs) and increased spending on cloud services driven by the AI boom [10]. - From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, Alibaba's revenue and EPS are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% and 12%, respectively, while trading at just 19 times next year's earnings and 2.3 times next year's sales [11][12]. - If Alibaba meets analysts' expectations and achieves a valuation of four times its forward sales, its market cap could nearly double to $710 billion, potentially surpassing Palantir's market cap [13].

Core Insights - This year's Double 11 event will allow all Tmall merchants to sell simultaneously on Lazada, Alibaba's overseas e-commerce platform [1] - Tmall has completed the integration of merchant systems with Lazada, enabling seamless operations for merchants [1] - Merchants on Tmall do not need to register a new store; they can create a mirror store on Lazada by signing an agreement in the backend, with products, inventory, marketing, and promotions synchronized [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese e-commerce market is primarily dominated by Alibaba Group and PDD Holdings, with Alibaba being the pioneer and PDD emerging as a disruptive force through its innovative social commerce model [1][2] Company Overview - Alibaba offers a comprehensive ecosystem that includes e-commerce, cloud computing, digital media, and logistics, while PDD focuses on value-driven commerce through gamification and group-buying [2] - Both companies are expanding internationally but have different strategies to capture consumer spending [2] Financial Performance - Alibaba reported steady performance in its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with significant cash flows from Taobao and Tmall funding technology investments [4] - PDD Holdings has shown remarkable momentum, with its Pinduoduo platform gaining market share and Temu's international expansion exceeding expectations [8][9] Growth Prospects - Alibaba's growth has decelerated, facing challenges from market maturation and competition, while PDD's growth trajectory appears substantial, particularly with Temu's early-stage international presence [6][11] - PDD's operational efficiency and healthy profitability, combined with aggressive growth investments, provide a competitive advantage [10] Valuation Comparison - PDD trades at a forward P/E of 11.63x, significantly lower than Alibaba's 19.57x, suggesting better value for investors [12] - Recent price performance shows Alibaba shares have surged 113.6% year-to-date, while PDD gained 37.9%, indicating diverging investor sentiment [15] Investment Recommendation - PDD Holdings is viewed as a superior investment opportunity in Chinese e-commerce due to its growth momentum, advanced AI capabilities, and asset-light operational model [17] - The recommendation is to buy PDD stock while adopting a hold stance on Alibaba, given its mature growth profile and ongoing competitive challenges [17]