Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to report a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5% [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 FY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve revenue of 245.6 billion yuan, representing a 4% year-on-year growth, with international digital commerce and cloud intelligence revenues increasing by 17% and 30% respectively [2][4] - The adjusted EBITA for Q2 FY26 is anticipated to be 8.5 billion yuan, down 79% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.5%, reflecting a decline of 13.6 percentage points [2][4] Group 2: Business Segments - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating, with revenue growth of 30% year-on-year for Q2 FY26, while maintaining stable EBITA margins [2] - The Chinese e-commerce group is forecasted to see a 5% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q2 FY26, with a take rate showing year-on-year improvement, although seasonal factors may impact revenue [2][3] - Instant retail is projected to incur an adjusted EBITA loss of 36.5 billion yuan for Q2 FY26, with expectations of a turnaround starting in Q3 FY26 [2] Group 3: Investment and Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028, with expected revenues of 1,050.3 billion yuan, 1,187.9 billion yuan, and 1,305.0 billion yuan respectively, reflecting minor downward adjustments [3] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been revised to 108.4 billion yuan, 150.2 billion yuan, and 177.2 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected investments in flash purchase and AI-related applications [3]

尽管近期股价有所回落，但这并没有影响美银继续发布看涨阿里的研报。 10月9日，美银发布阿里巴巴专项研究报告，重申对其买入评级，目标价维持200美元(对应港元195元)。 报告预测，阿里2026财年第二季度业务增长符合预期、利润短期触底，云业务与电商变现率双升提供增长动能，尽管即时零售投入扩大会导致阶段性盈利 下降，但长期看人工智能与全渠道布局仍具核心竞争力。 01 增长主线清晰 电商业务稳中有进，即时零售拉动流量增量 电商板块方面，客户管理收入预计维持10%的稳健增长，核心驱动力来自两点：一是"全站推"AI营销工具adoption率持续提升，帮助商家精准触达用户， 推动广告变现效率改善；二是淘宝即时零售贡献增量流量，据QuestMobile数据，7-9月淘宝日活跃用户同比增长13%-19%，用户粘性与转化率逐步优化。 美银预测，随着即时零售用户习惯养成，其对CMR的正向拉动将从短期2-3个百分点，逐步扩大至长期5-10个百分点；同时，业务协同效应有望降低销售 及营销费用，剔除即时零售后，中国电商业务利润率预计在2028财年实现明显扩张。 02 利润短期触底 报告指出，9月季度将是阿里巴巴集团利润的阶段性底部， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][20] Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for 2QFY26, with adjusted EBITA margin at 3.5%. Revenue is expected to reach 245.6 billion yuan, driven by a 17% increase in international digital commerce and a 30% increase in cloud intelligence revenue, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [3][5][20] - The cloud segment is expected to continue accelerating growth with a 30% year-on-year revenue increase, while maintaining stable EBITA margins. The company is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan [3][11][20] - The Chinese e-commerce group is projected to achieve a GMV growth of 5% year-on-year, with a take rate increase. However, the report notes that the profit margin is expected to continue declining due to competitive pressures [3][18][20] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2026 is adjusted to 1,050.3 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.5%. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY2026 is revised to 108.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% decrease due to higher-than-expected investments in flash sales and AI-related costs [4][20][23] Cloud Intelligence Group - The cloud segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 30% year-on-year in FY26Q2, with stable EBITA margins. The company has launched several AI models and upgraded its AI infrastructure significantly [11][12][13] Chinese E-commerce Group - The report estimates a 5% year-on-year GMV growth for FY26Q2, with a focus on maintaining market share despite competitive pressures. The adjusted EBITA loss for instant retail is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, with a peak in losses observed in August [18][19][20] Other Segments - The AIDC segment is expected to see a slowdown in revenue growth, maintaining a near breakeven performance. Other segments are projected to incur losses of around 5 billion yuan due to increased AI application costs and investments in delivery services [19][20]

榜单数据显示，国庆假期中国游客足迹遍布全球，AQ成中东中亚非洲小众旅游目的地必备健康应用， 假期境外AQ健康咨询量环比增长32%，出国旅游身体不适问国产AI成新趋势；中国游客去欧洲旅游找 厕所成新刚需，假期在欧洲用高德规划导航"厕所"的次数同比增长220%；出国用支付宝付款正成为普 遍现象，每2个出境游客中就有1个在用支付宝，支付宝消费趋势中，日韩东南亚消费仍火热，欧洲冷门 目的地如希腊等则成消费新宠。 经济观察网 10月8号，支付宝联合AI健康应用AQ、高德，围绕对中国游客假期出国期间的健康咨询趋 势、地图导航趋势、支付宝消费趋势的洞察，发布了首个《出国三宝小趋势榜》。 ...

云端筑梦 智在京华：科技平台她力量 ——阿里巴巴北京党委书记 刘葳 让世界看见中国科技力量：2022年，作为奥林匹克全球合作伙伴，阿里巴巴发挥自研云计算能力，服务北京冬奥成为首届"云上"奥运。刘葳同志带领团队 全力投入北京冬奥服务，阿里北京设计师李剑叶融合科技创新和传统文化理念，中标并牵头设计了北京冬奥火炬"飞扬"、火种灯、火种台外观；阿里云为 冬奥会期间的城市交通提供智能调度和预测服务，将北京全部14大类交通数据综合处理，日均新增GPS数据上亿条。 绿色科技服务首都首善：今年7月16日，联合国发布《2025全球可持续交通最佳实践案例集》，"北京MaaS城市绿色出行"案例作为中国交通绿色发展的典 范入选，正是刘葳作为核心成员参与的阿里北京落地重要政企合作项目之一。北京市自2019年11月启动国内首个绿色出行一体化服务平台（简称"北京 MaaS"），MaaS作为交通领域新理念，需要极高的技术支撑能力。刘葳协同高德团队，在北京交通委指导下，全力参与，并在2022年在高德平台率先开 启绿色出行碳普惠活动，鼓励市民绿色出行获得权益实惠，高德通过北京绿色交易所将减碳量交易给更多企业实现减排目标，也助力北京成为全球首个完 ...

格隆汇10月3日｜过去24小时，阿里接连创下新高：股价一度飙升至192.67美元，为4年来新高；高德 DAU(日活跃用户数)在10月1日达到3.6亿，创下新高；刚刚，高德扫街榜宣布上线23天用户破4亿，增 长速度创新高。 ...

这是半佛仙人的第1888篇原创 高德对我很重要。 重要到什么程度？ 它是我手机里为数不多不开免打扰的APP。 社交软件可以静音，电话可以勿扰，其他a pp也都点了不允许通知。 但高德需要随时待命。 去陌生城市旅游，去近郊徒步，甚至是小区附近遛弯儿，我都需要高德。 施工路段，积水坑洼，有没有路灯。 这个世界已经有足够的坑等着你去跳了，有了高德，能少跳一个是一个。 甚至，我国庆宅在家里，还是会习惯性地点开它。 地图上的每个像素点都可能藏着故事。 便利店店员打着哈欠换班，代驾师傅蹲在KTV门口，急诊室的医生刚放下手术刀，揉着发 酸的肩膀。 某个和我一样的夜猫子，正对着同样的蓝色界面提肛。 它不光是个导航工具，更是我和这个物理世界之间的翻译器。 它是我的第三只眼，是我的电子第六感。 没有它，我对世界的理解会缺一块。 真的，你都不知道我多么需要高德来给我确定性。 成年人的世界，往往是失控的。 甲方上午还在夸方案好棒，下午就说能不能再来一版。 然后再来很多版之后，又会说回到最初那版。 看看家附近哪条路堵成了红色，哪家景区人多到爆炸。 放大，放大，再放大。 昨天刚把健身房续完年费，第二天就通知跑路了。 第三天告诉你可以续到 ...

· 2025 年 9 月 25 日 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 46,121.28 | -0.37% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,637.98 | -0.28% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 22,497.86 | -0.33% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 9,250.43 | 0.29% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 23,666.81 | 0.23% | | 日经 225 指数 | 45,524.00 | -0.23% | | 台湾加权指数 | 26,247.37 | 1.42% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,853.64 | 0.83% | | 深证成指 | 13,356.14 | 1.80% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 26,518.65 | 1.37% | | 国企指数 | 9,442.99 | 1.64% | | 红筹指数 | 4,045.49 | -0.04% | | 恒生科技指数 | 6,323.15 | 2.53% | | AH 股溢 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud is projected to maintain its leading position in the Chinese AI cloud market by the first half of 2025, surpassing the combined total of its competitors ranked second to fourth [2] - Alibaba is the only Chinese company among the global top four AI cloud providers, alongside Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [2] Group 1: Leadership and Strategy - Wu Yongming has been leading Alibaba for two years, focusing on reshaping strategic priorities and business lines, with a clear vision for the future [4][15] - Wu emphasizes that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is not the end goal but a new starting point towards developing Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [4] - Under Wu's leadership, Alibaba has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a four-year high [7] Group 2: Investment and Growth - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years, which is more than the total investment of the past decade [25] - The company is focusing on a "public cloud first" strategy, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and improve product structure [25] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth has rebounded significantly, with quarterly revenue growth returning to double digits [27] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Alibaba aims to become a leading full-stack AI service provider globally, with a focus on open-source and building the "AI operating system" of the future [37] - The company is positioning itself to be one of the few super cloud computing platforms globally, with a vision for the future of AI as a critical commodity [39] - The stock price of Alibaba has doubled this year, reflecting investor confidence in the company's new direction and long-term value [35]

Group 1 - Alibaba is actively advancing its AI infrastructure construction with a planned investment of 380 billion, which has positively impacted the cloud computing sector, leading to a significant increase in stock prices for related companies [3][4] - The cloud computing ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159273) saw a rise of over 1.2%, with a trading volume exceeding 50 million, indicating strong investor interest [1][3] - Alibaba's stock surged over 7% during trading, reflecting market optimism regarding its strategic focus on AI and cloud services [3][4] Group 2 - The global cloud market is projected to reach approximately 820 billion in 2024, with China's public cloud accounting for about 5.6%, driven by strong demand for AI and large models [5][6] - Alibaba Cloud holds about one-third of the domestic market share, with revenue accelerating quarterly, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI-enhanced cloud services [6] - The domestic internet companies are expected to invest over 500 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026, with AI servers likely to account for more than half of this expenditure [7] Group 3 - North American cloud service providers are expected to increase their capital expenditures to 383.6 billion in 2025, a 52% increase year-on-year, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [7] - The AI server market in China is anticipated to reach 420 billion by 2026, with the AI computing chip market projected to hit 350 billion, highlighting significant growth potential [7] - The adoption of Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology is expected to enhance network solutions for AI, leading to lower costs and improved performance, creating investment opportunities in related sectors [8]