Core Insights - The popularity of "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" (milk skin candied hawthorn) has surged this winter, becoming a trending winter snack across China, with long queues and high prices reported in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][3][4] - The combination of milk skin and candied hawthorn, which originated in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, has led to a significant increase in prices, with some varieties costing three to four times more than traditional candied hawthorn [3][8][10] Market Trends - The hashtag "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" has garnered 220 million views on Xiaohongshu and 840 million views on Douyin, indicating strong social media engagement and consumer interest [3] - The price of Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu varies significantly, with basic varieties priced between 15-30 yuan, while premium options can exceed 40 yuan, reflecting a substantial markup due to the inclusion of milk skin [8][10] Supply Chain Dynamics - There is a reported shortage of milk skin, which is primarily handmade and labor-intensive to produce, leading to supply constraints and increased prices from 10 yuan to 19 yuan per piece [12][13] - Many businesses, including snack shops and instant retail platforms, are capitalizing on the trend by introducing their own versions of Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu, indicating a competitive market landscape [15][19] Industry Implications - The dairy industry has seen a decline in overall consumption, with major brands like Yili and Mengniu reporting revenue drops, suggesting that while Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu is a trend, it may not provide long-term growth for dairy companies [20] - Experts suggest that while the product is currently popular, it may not lead to sustainable innovation within the dairy sector due to low profit margins and lack of differentiation in production methods [19][20]

Group 1: Dairy Industry Overview - The dairy market has experienced a significant decline in demand, with overall sales down 16.8% year-on-year in September, and offline sales down 21.3% [1] - Major dairy companies reported revenue declines in Q3, with Yili's revenue down 1.70% to 28.631 billion yuan, Bright Dairy's liquid milk revenue down 8.44% to 3.54 billion yuan, and San Yuan Dairy's liquid milk revenue down 4.42% to 2.917 billion yuan [1] - A price war is ongoing in the dairy industry, with significant price reductions observed in various milk products [1] Group 2: Yili's Strategy and Market Position - Yili has adopted a light inventory management strategy to maintain channel health and mitigate risks for distributors, leading to cautious stocking behavior among distributors [2] - Yili aims to avoid exacerbating the price war while focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to meet consumer demand [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, contributing to intense price competition in the dairy sector due to ample raw milk supply [1][2]

Core Insights - The "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" (milk skin candied hawthorn) has become a trending beverage in the tea drink sector, experiencing a 60% increase in sales for brands like Lele Tea, indicating a significant consumer demand for this product [1][4][9] - The rapid rise in popularity has led to supply shortages, with many manufacturers struggling to meet the increased demand, resulting in price hikes of 30-50% for raw materials [9][11][20] - Industry experts are debating whether "Nai Pi Zi" can become a staple ingredient in tea drinks, similar to "pearls" or "thick milk," but face challenges such as unclear definitions, high production costs, and varying quality standards [13][20][22] Group 1: Product Popularity - "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" has become a winter consumer favorite, with reports of long queues and high prices, such as 98 yuan for a single skewer in Shanghai [1][4] - Social media platforms like Xiaohongshu have seen over 10,000 posts about "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu," indicating a strong online presence and consumer interest [4] - Lele Tea's modification to include "Tang Hu Lu" in their product name significantly boosted their sales and in-store traffic [4][9] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The surge in demand has left many milk skin factories overwhelmed, with reports of full production capacities and inability to fulfill orders, leading to nationwide shortages [9][11] - The price of raw milk skin has reportedly increased by nearly 100%, further complicating supply issues for manufacturers [11][20] - The production process for traditional milk skin is labor-intensive, requiring significant amounts of fresh milk and time, which limits scalability [20][22] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Experts suggest that while "Nai Pi Zi" has potential as a seasonal ingredient, its high cost and production challenges may hinder widespread adoption in the tea drink market [20][22] - The lack of standardized definitions and quality control for "Nai Pi Zi" poses a barrier to its acceptance as a mainstream ingredient [15][18] - The journey of "Nai Pi Zi" reflects broader trends in the Chinese consumer market, highlighting the potential of regional ingredients to gain popularity through social media and innovative supply chains [23]