上 市 公 司 基础化工 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 云天化 (600096) ——磷肥三季度集中出口，量价齐升，资产负债率显著优 化，业绩符合预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 61,537 | 37,599 | 61,800 | 61,584 | 60,699 | | 同比增长率（%） | -10.9 | -19.5 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -1.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,333 | 4,729 | 6,023 | 6,184 | 6,305 | | 同比增长率（%） | 17.9 | 6.9 | 12.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 2.91 | 2.58 | 3.30 | 3.39 | 3.46 | | 毛利率（%） | 17.5 | 20.9 | 18.8 | 18.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.992 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.761 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [2]. - The company has optimized its business structure, leading to an increase in gross margin, with the overall gross margin for Q2 2025 reaching 21.25%, up 4.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 6.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is one of the largest fertilizer producers in China, with a total fertilizer production capacity of 10 million tons per year, including urea, phosphate, and compound fertilizers [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.90% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.82%. However, the net profit for the same period was 1.472 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.15% [2][3]. - The average prices of major products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: phosphate at 3,152 yuan/ton (down 6.7%), compound fertilizer at 3,179 yuan/ton (up 6.5%), and urea at 1,754 yuan/ton (down 19.4%) [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2025 to be 54.564 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 5.599 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 9X [4][5]. - The expected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 57.416 billion yuan and 57.461 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 5.910 billion yuan and 6.109 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Data - As of September 9, 2025, the company's closing price was 27.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 50.497 billion yuan [6]. - The stock has shown absolute returns of 12% over the past month, 25% over the past three months, and 47% over the past year [8].

Core Viewpoint - Phosphate rock is a non-renewable mineral resource crucial for China's economy and strategic non-metallic mineral resources, with global reserves of approximately 72 billion tons and confirmed reserves in China of 3.441 billion tons [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Phosphate rock serves as the upstream foundation for the phosphate chemical industry and the development of phosphate fertilizers [1][4]. - The sedimentary type of phosphate rock accounts for 85% of the total in China, with the majority being the main target for development and utilization [2]. - Yunnan Province is one of China's richest phosphate provinces, with a phosphate rock resource reserve of 7.175 billion tons as of the end of 2023, although the proportion of rich ore and the amount available for direct processing are low [6][7]. Group 2: Production and Utilization - The production of phosphate rock in China is projected to reach 11.3528 million tons in 2024, with Yunnan's output increasing to 2.88341 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the national total [1][4][7]. - The comprehensive utilization rate of phosphate resources in Yunnan has improved significantly due to advancements in low-grade phosphate ore beneficiation technology [7]. Group 3: Industry Development Environment - The Yunnan provincial government has implemented a series of policies to strengthen the management of phosphate resources, ensuring rational development and environmental protection [11]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards "efficient resource utilization, high-end industrial clustering, and green circular development" under government policy guidance [15]. Group 4: Key Enterprises - Major companies in Yunnan's phosphate industry include Yunnan Phosphate Group Co., Ltd., Kunming Chuanjinnuo Chemical Co., Ltd., and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. [12][13]. - Yuntianhua, one of the largest phosphate mining companies, has phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year [13]. - Chuanjinnuo focuses on producing feed-grade phosphates and has reported a revenue of 3.207 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth attributed to phosphate sales [14].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report initiates coverage on Mai Fushi (2556.HK) with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 18.65 billion RMB, indicating a 50% upside potential from current levels [2] - Mai Fushi's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.31 billion, 2.97 billion, and 3.82 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 29%, and 29% respectively [13] - The company has a strong execution capability, with an average revenue per employee of 997,000 RMB in 2024, indicating effective operational management [13] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report discusses the ongoing trend of "residential deposit migration," which is expected to accelerate as the equity market's fundamentals improve, with A-shares currently positioned favorably [12] - The report highlights that the equity market is likely to become the next destination for residential asset allocation, as the previous "stock-property seesaw" effect is no longer a constraint [15] - The report notes that by Q4 2025, the real risk-free interest rate for residents is expected to decline significantly, which will further drive the migration of deposits into the equity market [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for Mai Fushi is characterized by a focus on mid-to-large enterprises, which enhances customer retention and bargaining power [13] - The report emphasizes the differentiation of Mai Fushi's products compared to competitors like Weimeng and Youzan, particularly in terms of comprehensive service offerings and a full-link marketing approach [13] - The report indicates that the AI commercialization acceleration is a key catalyst for growth, with a notable increase in KA customer numbers and order sizes [13] Group 4: Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.46% over the past month [1] - The report identifies sectors such as black home appliances and animal health as having strong recent performance, with respective increases of 12.36% and 47.87% over the past month [4] - Conversely, sectors like medical services and aviation equipment have underperformed, with declines of 10.77% and 21.91% over the same period [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is primarily engaged in the phosphate mining and chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer, polyoxymethylene, and trade logistics, leveraging its phosphate resources for a full industrial chain operation in phosphate chemicals [1] Production Capacity - The company has a leading production capacity in its main products, with phosphate fertilizer capacity at 5.55 million tons/year, ranking second in China and fourth globally. The company’s diammonium phosphate market share is among the top in the domestic market [2] - The company’s urea production capacity is 2.6 million tons/year, with significant regional influence, particularly in Yunnan where it holds a 50% market share [2] - The company also has a compound fertilizer capacity of 1.85 million tons/year and leads in feed-grade calcium phosphate with a capacity of 500,000 tons/year, holding a 70% market share in the domestic MDCP consumption market [2] - Additionally, the company has a polyoxymethylene production capacity of 90,000 tons/year, with a 15% market share in the domestic market and 25% in the domestic polyoxymethylene market, ranking first in the country [2] Resource Advantages - The company benefits from phosphate mining resources, with phosphate prices expected to remain high due to strict mining policies and limited supply. The annual phosphate rock production is restricted to around 150 million tons, with actual production averaging about 100 million tons in recent years [3][4] - The company has phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, providing a strong self-supply guarantee for phosphate products [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 46.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.34%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.42% to 4.42 billion yuan. The gross profit margin improved by 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s financial situation has improved significantly, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing from 89.13% in 2019 to 52.51% in the third quarter of 2024, and the financial expense ratio dropping from 4.35% to 0.83% [7] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated phosphate chemical industry chain and strong phosphate resource self-supply advantage, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 5.438 billion, 5.562 billion, and 5.778 billion yuan respectively [8]