6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 8 月 25 日有媒体报道，工信部近期将向三家基础电信运营商正式颁发卫星互联网 牌照，进一步推动电信运营商扩大新兴业务范畴。截止目前，中国星网共完成 9 组共 72 颗组网星发射，其中 7 月 27 至今共发射 5 组 38 颗组网星，组网进程明 显加速。我们认为如果真的发放卫星互联网运营牌照，后续互联卫星的发射和地 面配套设施建设将会较快，在当前 A 股日成交量已经超过 3 万亿的市场热度下， 大概率会带来卫星制造、地面设备和运营方面相关上市公司的投资机会。 8 月 25 日上海正式发文调整楼市限购政策，一是解除外环的购房限制，提升单身 个人的购房套数至与家庭一致，二是将首套和二套房的贷款利率拉平，三是免征 首套和符合条件房产的房产税，四是公积金贷款提取的进一步放松和提高额度。 我们认为一二套房贷款利率的拉平若能在主要限购城市放开，将有助于进一步降 低改善住房的成本。同时在地产仍未明确止住下行趋势的情况下，上海放松限购 也有利于全国地产信心的回升。同时在当前 A 股市场可能高低估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of the Jiashi New Energy Materials Stock A fund, indicating a profit of 4.7057 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.46% and a total fund size of 2.059 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the fund's one-year cumulative net value growth rate is 33.18%, ranking 7th out of 44 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's three-month net value growth rate is 8.86%, ranking 34th out of 44 comparable funds, and the six-month growth rate is 6.97%, ranking 22nd out of 44 [3]. - Over the past three years, the fund has experienced a net value growth rate of -44.60%, ranking 21st out of 31 comparable funds [3]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is -0.3224, ranking 18th out of 31 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 63.37%, ranking 3rd out of 31 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q3 2022 at 24.88% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicates that corporate profit recovery is similar to historical cycles, suggesting potential for exceeding expectations in various industries due to suppressed capital expenditures [2]. - The fund has maintained a high average stock position of 91.71% over the past three years, with a peak of 94.62% at the end of 2023 [13]. - The fund's investment focus is on sectors related to new energy lithium batteries and intelligent driving, adjusting the portfolio dynamically based on market fluctuations [2]. Holdings Concentration - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks including Ningde Times, Putailai, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, indicating a stable selection of investment targets [18].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -79.43 million and -98.30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -130.32 million and -161.28 million yuan [1][2] - The previous year's financial performance showed a net profit attributable to shareholders of -220.89 million yuan before adjustments and -222.31 million yuan after adjustments [1][2] Group 2 - The primary reasons for the anticipated losses include the ongoing downturn in the lithium battery industry, significant price adjustments for lithium iron phosphate products, and inventory impairment losses [2] - The company has implemented strategies such as product differentiation, exploring international opportunities, and cost reduction measures to mitigate losses, but these efforts are not expected to yield immediate results [2] - Non-operating gains and losses and accounting treatments are not expected to have a significant impact on the company's projected losses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Jiangsu Baichuan High-tech New Materials Co., Ltd., Zheng Tiejiang, has been placed under investigation and detention by the Jiangyin Municipal Supervisory Committee, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price and raising concerns about its financial stability and ongoing projects [2][9]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Baichuan High-tech New Materials Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002, with Zheng Tiejiang holding a 75% stake initially. The company has undergone several changes in ownership structure, with Zheng and his family remaining the primary shareholders [4]. - The company has faced financial difficulties, with a significant drop in revenue from 2014 to 2016, but saw a recovery in subsequent years, primarily driven by its traditional chemical business rather than its newer energy materials segment [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Baichuan's new materials and energy businesses reported negative gross margins of -4.76% and 0.51%, respectively, contributing to an overall net loss of 466 million yuan [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of -1.95% for its new materials business and -38.69% for its energy business in 2024, although its chemical business improved to a gross margin of 16.90%, allowing the company to return to profitability [7]. Shareholding and Financial Issues - As of March 2023, Zheng Tiejiang had pledged 36,397,500 shares, representing 6.12% of the company's total shares and 43.16% of his holdings, primarily for personal financing needs [8]. - Baichuan's financial situation is strained, with a significant liquidity gap, as its current assets of 3.016 billion yuan are overshadowed by current liabilities of 7.637 billion yuan, indicating a need for financial restructuring [8]. Impact of Leadership Changes - The detention of Zheng Tiejiang introduces uncertainty to ongoing projects, particularly in the energy sector, which has already been underperforming [9]. - The increasing regulatory scrutiny in the capital market reflects a broader trend of tightening oversight, which may impact investor confidence and the company's operational stability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the share reduction by the controlling shareholder of Daoshi Technology coincides with the company's technological breakthroughs in solid-state battery materials, raising questions about the company's short-term outlook and investment in R&D [1][2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Rong Jihua, plans to reduce holdings by up to 15.42 million shares, representing 1.97% of the total share capital, citing "personal funding needs" [1]. - After the reduction, Rong Jihua's shareholding will decrease from 16.19% to approximately 14.2% [1]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Daoshi Technology has made significant progress in solid-state battery core materials, achieving a breakthrough in sulfide electrolyte conductivity of over 1 mS/cm and stable production at the 100-gram level [1]. - The company has established a comprehensive material solution covering the entire solid-state battery industry chain, including single-wall carbon nanotube conductive agents and silicon-based anodes [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Daoshi Technology's revenue is projected to be 7.752 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, with a net profit of 157 million, marking a turnaround [2]. - However, R&D expenditure for 2024 is expected to be 239 million, down 16.7% year-on-year, with R&D spending as a percentage of revenue at only 3.1%, significantly below the industry average of 5%-8% [2]. Group 4: Market Context and Challenges - The global solid-state battery market is expected to reach a scale of 100 billion by 2030, with Daoshi Technology at a critical technological breakthrough point [3]. - The company aims to achieve stable supply of kilogram-level sulfide electrolytes by 2025, but current production levels are insufficient compared to industry needs [2][3]. - The company faces headwinds in its main businesses of lithium battery materials and ceramic materials, with a decline in output of ternary precursors and a drop in ceramic material sales due to a sluggish recovery in the real estate sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide (中核钛白) announced the termination of its 2021 non-public stock issuance projects, specifically the "Water-soluble Phosphate Monoammonium (Water-soluble Fertilizer) Resource Recycling Project" and the "Annual Production of 500,000 Tons of Iron Phosphate Project," reallocating the remaining raised funds of 1.666 billion yuan to supplement working capital for daily operations and business development [3][10] Company Summary - The decision to terminate the projects was influenced by significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the downstream market for water-soluble phosphate monoammonium and iron phosphate, leading to a slowdown in demand growth and overall industry profitability falling below expectations [3][7] - The company had initially planned to raise up to 7.091 billion yuan for various projects, including the aforementioned projects and working capital, but the actual net funds raised in 2023 amounted to 5.249 billion yuan [3] - As of April 30, 2025, the original total investment commitment for the iron phosphate project was 3.385 billion yuan, later adjusted to 2.524 billion yuan, with cumulative investment of 1.309 billion yuan [4] Industry Summary - The iron phosphate industry has seen rapid capacity expansion since the second half of 2020, with many companies attempting to diversify into the lithium battery sector, but increasing market competition and raw material price fluctuations have made this transition challenging [4][6] - The domestic iron phosphate production is projected to reach 2.0276 million tons in 2024, a 47.87% increase from 1.3712 million tons in 2023, while prices are expected to remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 20.67% [8] - The supply-demand imbalance in the iron phosphate market is exacerbated by rapid capacity growth and insufficient demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, leading to a projected excess capacity of over 3 million tons by 2025 [8][9] - The prices of key raw materials for iron phosphate production, such as phosphate rock and sulfuric acid, have been volatile and generally on the rise, increasing cost pressures for production companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Longpan Technology Co., Ltd. plans to increase capital in its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. using 80% of the funds raised from issuing H shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, amounting to approximately RMB 369.71 million [1][3][12]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase will involve RMB 55.51 million being added to the registered capital of Changzhou Liyuan, raising its total registered capital from RMB 778.61 million to RMB 834.13 million [1][3]. - The remaining RMB 314.19 million will be allocated to the capital reserve of Changzhou Liyuan [1][3]. - Following this, Changzhou Liyuan plans to inject USD 14 million into its subsidiary Liyuan (Asia Pacific) PTE. LTD., increasing its registered capital from USD 14.64 million to USD 15.10 million [1][3]. Group 2: Related Party Transactions - The existing shareholders of Changzhou Liyuan, including Nanjing Jinbeili Venture Capital Center, Changzhou Youbeili Venture Capital Center, and Nanjing Chaoli Venture Capital Center, are considered related parties due to their management's involvement in the company [2][4]. - These shareholders have opted not to proportionally increase their capital in Changzhou Liyuan, leading to the classification of this capital increase as a related party transaction [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Changzhou Liyuan's total assets were reported at RMB 952.49 million, with a net asset attributable to the parent company of RMB 94.62 million [6]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 105.70 million and a net loss of RMB 8.05 million for the year [6]. - The valuation of Changzhou Liyuan was assessed at RMB 4.84 billion using the income approach, reflecting a 123.70% increase over its book value [8][9]. Group 4: Approval Process - The board of directors approved the capital increase proposal on May 29, 2025, which will be submitted for shareholder approval [3][4]. - Independent directors and the supervisory board have reviewed and supported the proposal, confirming that it adheres to legal and regulatory requirements [17][18]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The capital increase aligns with the company's strategic planning and is intended to enhance the financial strength and competitiveness of Changzhou Liyuan and its subsidiaries [1][3][17]. - The funding will support production and operational needs, ensuring that the company remains a controlling entity in both Changzhou Liyuan and its subsidiary [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic advancements of Longpan Technology in the new energy sector, highlighting its innovative technologies and their potential to reshape the industry landscape through a closed-loop ecosystem from research and development to recycling [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - Longpan Technology launched four cutting-edge technologies, including the fourth-generation high-pressure solid lithium iron phosphate cathode material, which significantly enhances battery energy density and is gaining market traction [4][6]. - The company’s third-generation low-conductivity coolant improves battery performance by enhancing heat dissipation, while the first-generation lithium iron phosphate cathode material recycling technology offers a cost-effective solution for battery waste [6][7]. - The second-generation fuel cell catalyst, utilizing advanced platinum-cobalt alloy technology, reduces platinum usage by 33%, making fuel cell vehicles more cost-competitive [7]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Longpan Technology aims to establish itself as a global leader in green energy core materials, transitioning from a single-product focus to a comprehensive lifecycle innovation strategy [8][10]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships, including a nearly 10 billion yuan deal with LG, and has established the only lithium iron phosphate cathode material factory outside China, showcasing its international and vertical integration strategy [10]. - Longpan's focus on performance improvements through technological breakthroughs has solidified its leading position in the industry, with a 77.6% year-on-year increase in lithium iron phosphate sales [15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes a mismatch between technological breakthroughs and market pricing, with Longpan's commercial potential not yet fully recognized by the market [12][16]. - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in production and sales, particularly in exports, indicating a positive shift in market conditions [14][15]. - Longpan is transitioning from being perceived as a cyclical stock to a growth stock, driven by its technological advancements and the evolving market landscape [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for new energy materials, with expectations of continued growth and market share expansion as the industry matures [17][18]. - Longpan's innovations and strategic initiatives are expected to redefine the rules of the new energy ecosystem, establishing it as a key player in the future energy landscape [18].