证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

转自：经济日报 满载货物的货车在街巷间穿梭不息，仓库里的分拣流水线昼夜不歇，一个个包裹被精准分装、贴标，静 静等候搭乘清晨的航班，跨越山海、奔赴全球。 新春出海不打烊 占地4.4平方公里的福围社区是"国际物流村"的核心载体。20世纪90年代，深圳空港物流产业初兴，这 里的物流企业多是"跑腿代办"，承接珠三角代工企业的廉价小商品，打包简单、时效宽松，物流链路也 只有单一的快递代理模式。 如今，这里早已旧貌换新颜。在福围社区所在的深圳市宝安区福永街道，4300多家物流企业集聚在此， 共生共荣，形成了从龙头集团到中小货运代理的完备生态，日均处理跨境包裹超百万件，最快2天可达 亚洲主要城市、3天通达全球。 2025年以来，这里发往俄罗斯、东南亚、欧美等国家和地区的订单量同比增长20%，营收已超过百亿 元。 （来源：经济日报） 在"国际物流村"，物流人的小故事里有大时代。 凌胡顺自2000年入行。最初，他从手写单证、装箱搬货起步，每天经手的都是贴牌玩具、廉价服饰，物 流模式只是代理国际快递，赚微薄差价。 而现在，他的客户多是国内原创品牌，包裹里的高端服饰、智能硬件，对物流要求大幅提升，倒逼企业 完成转型。 他们打造的专 ...

新华社深圳2月15日电腊月廿五，年味渐浓，深圳"国际物流村"依旧热气腾腾、生机涌动。满载货物的 货车在街巷间穿梭不息，仓库里的分拣流水线昼夜不歇，一个个包裹被精准分装、贴标，静静等候搭乘 清晨的航班，跨越山海、奔赴全球。 新春出海不打烊 占地4.4平方公里的福围社区是"国际物流村"的核心载体。20世纪90年代，深圳空港物流产业初兴，这 里的物流企业多是"跑腿代办"，承接珠三角代工企业的廉价小商品，打包简单、时效宽松，物流链路也 只有单一的快递代理模式。 如今，这里早已旧貌换新颜。在福围社区所在的深圳市宝安区福永街道，4300多家物流企业集聚在此， 共生共荣，形成了从龙头集团到中小货运代理的完备生态，日均处理跨境包裹超百万件，最快2天可达 亚洲主要城市、3天通达全球。 在深圳市柏威国际科技物流有限公司的仓库里，智能化设备高效运转，无人叉车穿梭其间，运输管理系 统与仓储管理系统联动，实现货物实时追踪、预报关，让通关效率大幅提升。 "春节前货量环比增长10%至15%，'一舱难求'是常态。"公司数字化品牌营销经理唐林旺介绍，柏威国 际年处理货量约30万吨，日均吞吐量800吨至1000吨。 伴随"新三样"出口热潮，他们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 New Year gathering in Chengdu highlighted the city's commitment to high-level openness and international cooperation, showcasing its development as a significant window for China's modernization [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The New Year gathering took place on February 4, 2026, with participation from consuls and representatives from 20 countries, including Austria, France, and the UK [1]. - Chengdu's Mayor Chen Shuping expressed gratitude to international friends for their support in the city's development [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Chengdu is seizing major opportunities from initiatives like the Belt and Road, the new era of western development, and the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [2]. - The city is implementing a development strategy focused on innovation, openness, and integration of science and industry to advance modernization [2]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange - The event featured traditional Chinese cultural activities such as writing Spring Festival couplets and tea tasting, allowing international guests to experience the rich cultural heritage of the Spring Festival [2]. - A display area showcased Chengdu's internationally competitive products in sectors like healthcare, robotics, and clean energy, promoting further collaboration [2].

Core Insights - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is facing increased compliance pressures, highlighted by significant law enforcement actions against smuggling, indicating a shift towards stricter regulations [1] - The era of growth driven by "low-price duty-free" strategies is coming to an end, with compliance and localization becoming essential for survival and growth in 2026 [1][3] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The global compliance wave is accelerating the transformation of tax systems in Southeast Asia towards transparency and standardization, presenting both challenges and opportunities for cross-border merchants [3] - Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement electronic verification for export goods regarding tax compliance, making it essential for cross-border sellers to ensure business compliance and complete documentation [4] Group 2: Taxation and Pricing Strategies - In Thailand, approximately 97% of import goods will have taxes included in the final pricing, leading to increased costs across various product categories, with clothing expected to rise by 20%-30% and electronics by 10% [5] - Vietnam's e-commerce platforms are adopting a model of withholding and remitting taxes for individual sellers, requiring accurate account information to avoid compliance issues [7] - Indonesia is planning to optimize its tax system, which will further standardize the tax environment, necessitating urgent adjustments in supply chains and product structures for sellers relying on low-price models [7] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - For high-value, seasonal products, sellers should prioritize air freight and local warehousing to enhance delivery speed and user experience while recalculating total costs to ensure profitability [9] - For low-value, everyday items, transitioning to local shipping through bulk sea freight can mitigate logistics costs and improve customer experience, marking a strategic shift from cross-border to local sales [11] - For popular consumer goods, a mixed logistics strategy of air freight for urgent needs and sea freight for stable inventory can help manage cash flow and meet demand fluctuations [12] Group 4: Long-term Market Positioning - The Southeast Asian e-commerce landscape is evolving into a competitive arena where compliance capabilities, localized operations, and brand strength are critical for success [17] - Companies must embrace compliance proactively, adjust strategies, and deepen local operations to secure a foothold in the market and capitalize on long-term growth opportunities [17]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 2.10 billion yuan, an increase from 1.94 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a growth of about 8.63% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 414.23 million yuan, down from 479.20 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a decline of about 13.59% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 390.42 million yuan, compared to 459.08 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a decrease of about 15% [1] - The basic and diluted earnings per share were both 0.73 yuan, down from 0.84 yuan in the previous year [1] - The weighted average return on equity was 7.99%, a decrease of 1.34 percentage points from 9.33% in the previous year [1][20] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities was approximately 336.00 million yuan, a significant decrease of 36.9% compared to 532.53 million yuan in the same period last year [1][22] - The net cash flow from financing activities was -1.20 million yuan, an increase of 4663.39 million yuan year-on-year [22] - The net cash flow from investing activities was -430 million yuan, improving from -1.15 billion yuan in the previous year [22] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately 7.38 billion yuan, up from 7.20 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [1] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by 8.5%, while trading financial assets increased by 16.29% [34] - Other payables increased by 185.18%, while accounts payable decreased by 39.91% [37] Shareholder Structure - New shareholders include various investment funds, replacing some of the previous major shareholders [47] - The top ten circulating shareholders saw changes in their holdings, with some increasing and others decreasing their stakes [48] Valuation Metrics - As of August 26, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 13.24 times, the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 1.82 times, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was around 2.27 times [1]