Core Insights - The global market is experiencing a dual storm of "AI leap" and "geopolitical restructuring" as it enters 2026, with Morgan Stanley predicting extreme volatility and Omdia forecasting a 31.26% growth in China's semiconductor market, reaching $546.5 billion [1] Group 1: Computing Power Dominance - The demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially, driven by advancements in large language models (LLMs) and the adoption of "smart factory" models by LLM developers [1] - In China, the "edge AI era" is officially beginning, with digital terminals capable of edge inference (such as smartphones and vehicles) becoming the main drivers of semiconductor expansion [1] - Domestic AI chip suppliers in China are expected to capture a larger share of the market due to increased pressure from import bans [1] Group 2: Storage Chip Supercycle - The demand for high-performance storage (HBM) is surging as global AI infrastructure expands, leading to a significant upward revision of the storage market forecast by Omdia, which is now up by 62.8% [1] - China's reliance on Samsung and SK Hynix for 90% of its high-end storage results in low self-sufficiency and weak bargaining power, keeping average selling prices (ASP) of storage chips high [1] - A global shortage of storage chips is expected to persist until 2027-2028, which will be a major constraint on the shipment volumes of terminal devices [1] Group 3: Manufacturing Landscape in a Multipolar World - The U.S. is expected to see a resurgence in high-end manufacturing due to policies aimed at securing critical mineral and energy supplies, with automation technologies reducing the advantage of low-cost labor [1] - China aims to expand its market share in global tech manufacturing by leveraging its mature processes and vertical industry capabilities, despite facing external regulations [1] - In 2026, China is anticipated to achieve diversified breakthroughs in AI infrastructure through deep collaboration between computing power and AI ecosystems [1] Group 4: Energy and Deflationary Pressures - Energy costs are projected to become a critical factor in AI expansion, with AI giants moving towards "off-grid" strategies to control infrastructure directly [1] - By the second half of 2026, AI-driven cost reduction effects are expected to lead to rapid declines in the prices of certain goods, while the valuation of scarce assets that cannot be replicated by AI may rise [1]

以下文章来源于Omdia ，作者Omdia Omdia . Omdia隶属于Informa TechTarget，是一家专注于技术研究与咨询的机构。通过深刻的科技市场洞察力和 可操作的建议，Omdia帮助组织做出明智的增长决策。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 根据Omdia发布的半导体产业观察，AI应用模型正在中国各垂直行业广泛落地，标志着边缘AI时 代的到来。众多大语言模型(LLM)正在各行业积极部署垂直应用模型。具备边缘推理能力的数字终 端将快速增长，成为中国半导体产业扩张的重要驱动力——尤其是成熟工艺技术领域。2025年四 季度最新数据显示，2026年中国半导体市场预计增长31.26%，市场规模将达到5465亿美元。 《半导体应用领域市场预测工具(AMFT)- 中国地区(2Q25)》预计中国半导体市场在2025年增长 16.17%，2026年增长13.63%。在《半导体应用领域市场预测工具(AMFT)- 中国地区(4Q25)》报 告中，2025年四季度的更新将预测上调为2025年增长21.63%、2026年增长31.26%。 2025年第四季度预测中，存储市场规模显著上调。与二季度版本相比， ...

三星、SK海力士将既有产能全力冲刺生产高端DRAM及高频宽存储（HBM），大举排挤NAND Flash产 出，两大厂今年同步大砍NAND芯片产量，三星全年产量甚至比先前景气低迷时还少，将使得全球 NAND芯片市场持续供不应求，价格再度狂飙。 中国台湾供应链方面，群联认为，云端服务业者对企业级SSD与储存容量需求呈现结构性增长，目前市 场供给仍偏紧，缺口约在一成以上，短期内难以缓解，尤其主要NAND芯片厂过去几年对扩产态度保 守，即使启动新投资，新增产能最快也要到2027年后才可能逐步开出。 点序方面，该公司深耕NAND控制芯片，同样搭上价格上扬走势，挹注运营动能。 市场估算，全球NAND芯片供给结构性缺口将因此扩大约3%至4%，时值NAND芯片严重供不应求、价 格狂涨，两大厂产出不增反减，将使得供给更吃紧，价格涨势延续，台湾NAND芯片应用双巨头群联 （8299）、点序（6485）将成两大赢家，模组厂威刚、创见、十铨等也沾光。 韩媒Chosun Biz引述市场研究公司Omdia的数据报道，三星、SK海力士冲刺高端DRAM与HBM，持续降 低NAND芯片产出，其中，三星今年NAND芯片产量将由去年的490万片降 ...

Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a "dual super cycle" driven by the AI chip boom and a structural shortage in real estate, leading to significant economic implications [1][2][5] Semiconductor Super Cycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural upturn driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, with HBM and high-end DRAM supply constraints supporting prices and extending the cycle [4][10] - The semiconductor export surge is expected to result in a current account surplus of $164 billion by 2026, accounting for 7.6% of GDP, which is a historical high [18][23] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Seoul is entering a new super cycle, with apartment prices rising 7.2% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the national average of 0.5% [11][14] - A drastic decline of nearly 40% in new housing starts since 2022 has created a supply cliff, contributing to panic buying in the real estate market [12][13] Economic Growth Projections - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices [6][23] - The liquidity influx from semiconductor exports is translating into asset price inflation across various categories [6][18] Investment Strategies - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2.50%, limiting further rate cuts despite strong economic growth and rising asset prices [3][23] - Investment strategies include focusing on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and benefiting from the consumer recovery in the automotive sector due to recent tariff agreements [20][22]

Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a macroeconomic feast driven by AI, which generates dollars through exports, converting them into domestic liquidity that is ultimately absorbed by the real estate and stock markets [1] Semiconductor Supercycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural uptrend driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, marking a significant departure from the cyclical rebounds seen in previous years [1][3] - Nomura forecasts that chip export growth will surge from approximately 25% in 2025 to 50-60% in 2026, indicating a robust demand environment [1][4] Economic Predictions - Nomura maintains a non-consensus view that the Bank of Korea will keep the terminal interest rate at 2.50% for an extended period, dismissing further rate cuts [3][21] - The GDP growth forecast for South Korea has been raised from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, surpassing market consensus due to the wealth effect from rising asset prices [3][13] - A significant trade surplus from chip exports is expected to lead to a surge in M1 money supply, resulting in price increases across various asset classes [3][15] Real Estate Supercycle - The real estate market in South Korea is entering a new supercycle, with the Seoul apartment price index surpassing previous highs, driven by low borrowing costs and accumulated savings [7][10] - Despite high nominal prices, the low actual borrowing costs are sustaining the market, as buyers are entering the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [10][11] Liquidity and Wealth Effects - The report highlights a self-reinforcing macroeconomic cycle where the global AI narrative translates into domestic asset stories, contributing to the upward pressure on asset prices [11][19] - The expected current account surplus from semiconductor trade could exceed $120 billion in 2026, significantly impacting domestic liquidity [4][15] Investment Strategies - Nomura suggests a bullish stance on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector and the AI value chain, while recommending a bearish outlook on interest rate cut expectations [14][21] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from consumer recovery and recent tariff agreements between the U.S. and South Korea [21]