Core Viewpoint - A seemingly technical tariff adjustment by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has triggered significant turmoil in the global gold market, highlighting the fragility of the gold supply chain and the impact of policy uncertainty on market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York gold futures over London spot prices surged to $125 per ounce, reflecting market panic over potential supply chain disruptions [7]. - New York gold prices reached a historic high of $3534.10 per ounce, while London prices remained stable around $3396.04, indicating a significant price disparity [7]. - Historical data shows that when the COMEX futures premium exceeds 2%, it has previously led to strong price recoveries in the spot market within 1-3 weeks, as seen in April 2020 [7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The White House intervened shortly after the market reaction, labeling the CBP's tariff decision as "misinformation," which indicates internal policy confusion and has led to a rapid decline in gold prices [9][10]. - The inconsistency between government agencies has heightened market uncertainty, raising questions about the reliability of U.S. policy [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Approximately 90% of industrial gold is refined in Switzerland, making it a critical hub in the global gold supply chain, which is now seen as overly concentrated and vulnerable to geopolitical risks [4][12]. - The recent events may prompt a reevaluation of the reliance on a single refining center, potentially leading to a more diversified supply network in the future [15]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The turmoil has led to a shift in sentiment among investment institutions, with even traditionally bearish firms like Citigroup adjusting their gold price targets upward to $3500 per ounce [12]. - The current climate of policy uncertainty may enhance gold's status as a safe-haven asset, as investors seek stability amid fluctuating market conditions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been driven by concerns over potential tariffs on gold bars imported from Switzerland, which is a major refining center for gold [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Gold Market - A report indicated that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a higher tariff code, raising fears of increased costs for imports from Switzerland [2][3] - The announcement led to a significant spike in gold futures prices, with COMEX gold reaching $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, before a subsequent clarification from the White House caused prices to drop [3][4] - The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, as Switzerland plays a crucial role in refining and trading gold [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the White House's clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX futures falling over 2% to below $3400 per ounce [4][5] - The gold market has been in a consolidation phase, with London spot gold showing minimal fluctuations from May to July, indicating a period of adjustment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that short-term gold prices may oscillate between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, while medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The resolution of the tariff concerns is expected to stabilize market sentiment, allowing focus to shift back to fundamental factors such as the U.S. dollar's performance and global economic conditions [6] - Analysts believe that gold prices are likely to remain in an upward trend due to persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6] - Predictions indicate that gold could reach a target price of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for further increases to $3800 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility due to the news of the U.S. government imposing tariffs on imported gold bars weighing 1 kilogram, which initially drove prices to a historical high before a sharp decline occurred [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On August 9, COMEX gold futures dropped sharply from $3,490 to $3,445 within three minutes after the tariff news broke, despite having previously risen over 2% to a record high of $3,534.10 [1][3]. - Following the announcement of the tariff, gold-related stocks such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines quickly reversed their gains [4]. - The price difference between London and New York gold prices widened significantly due to the tariff news, reaching over $100 per ounce before narrowing to below $60 [3]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - The reported tariff on 1-kilogram gold bars could have profound implications for global gold flows and the functioning of U.S. futures contracts, as gold is treated differently from other commodities like copper [2][4]. - The decision to impose tariffs is expected to particularly impact Swiss refineries, which play a crucial role in the global gold market by facilitating the delivery of gold bars between London and New York [4][5]. - The U.S. gold refining capacity is limited, and the imposition of tariffs could render COMEX contracts unfeasible, leading to potential capacity issues and increased market uncertainty [5]. Group 3: Industry Responses - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns that the tariffs would make exporting gold to the U.S. economically unviable, potentially eliminating any future trade deficits in gold exports [5]. - The London Bullion Market Association is seeking clarification on the recent tariff decision, which contradicts previous statements from the U.S. government regarding the exemption of gold bars from tariffs [5].

金条也不能豁免关税 纽约黄金期货价格创新高 卜晓明 美国纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格8日亚洲早盘上涨至每盎司3534.10美元，创历史新高。 美联储7月30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间 不变。沃勒在会上投票支持降息25个基点。（完）（新华社专特稿） 除关税因素外，美国联邦储备委员会最新人事变动同样支撑金价，令美元承压。美国总统特朗普向美联 储安插"自己人"，无异于为"鸽派"阵营增加了砝码。 特朗普7日宣布，提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美联储理事阿 德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职留下的空缺。米兰被认为是影响特朗普第二个总统任期贸易政策的关键人物 之一。 摩根大通在7日发布的研报中预测，美联储9月可能降息25个基点，随后再三次降息各25个基点，然后暂 停降息。理由是美国劳动力市场现疲弱迹象，以及美联储主席提名引发的不确定性。 研报同样写道，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒现在是美联储主席最热门人选。研报称这一人事变动可能 受金融市场欢迎。 前一天，英国《金融时报》报道说，美国政府已对重量1公斤的进口金条施加关税。报道说， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has faced global opposition, leading to market adjustments since late July, as investors remain cautious about potential stagnation and recession risks in the U.S. economy [1] - Stephen Moore, a critic of the Federal Reserve, has been nominated by President Trump to fill a vacant position on the Fed's board, pending Senate approval, which has influenced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts this year [3] - Following the news of Moore's nomination, the dollar index's gains narrowed, and international gold prices increased, with December gold futures closing at $3,453.7 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified major gold products, including 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as items subject to tariffs, with the 1-kilogram gold bar primarily imported from Switzerland facing a 39% tariff [3] - On August 8, international gold prices continued to rise, with London spot gold surpassing $3,400, reaching a peak of $3,409.04 per ounce, while COMEX gold hit an intraday record high of $3,534.1 per ounce [3]