公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 业绩稳健增长，平台型龙头优势持续显现 目标价：502.5 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,838 | 39,509 | 50,146 | 60,221 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.1% | 32.4% | 26.9% | 20.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,621 | 6,663 | 9,100 | 12,068 | | 同比增速(%) | 44.2% | 18.5% | 36.6% | 32.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 7.76 | 9.20 | 12.56 | 16.66 | | 市盈率(倍) | 52 | 44 | 32 | 24 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 3 日收盘价 半导体设备 2025 年 11 月 04 日 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 29.51% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 16.142 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 42.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 14.97% to 3.208 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 20.17% to 3.181 billion yuan [1][2] - The semiconductor equipment business showed strong performance, particularly in etching, thin film, and thermal processing segments, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.936 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.84% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.30% [1] - The gross margin for Q2 was 41.29%, down 6.11 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The electronic process equipment segment generated 15.258 billion yuan in revenue, up 33.89% year-on-year, while the electronic components segment saw a decline of 17.47% to 868 million yuan [2] Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its product matrix through both internal R&D and external acquisitions, with R&D investment reaching 2.915 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30.01% increase [3] - The acquisition of 17.87% of ChipSource Micro strengthens the company's position in the domestic market, complementing its existing product lines [3] Market Outlook - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to benefit from accelerated localization efforts, with the company positioned as a leading platform player [4] - The expansion of domestic wafer fabs and the introduction of new products are anticipated to drive significant growth and market share gains for the company [4] Investment Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, with projected revenues of 39.509 billion, 50.146 billion, and 60.221 billion yuan respectively [4] - The net profit estimates for the same period have been slightly revised, with EPS expected to be 10.18, 13.32, and 16.78 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4][23]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with a projected total revenue of CNY 39.51 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [3][8]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 7.35 billion in 2025, a growth of 30.7% compared to the previous year [3][8]. - The report highlights the successful platformization of the company's product offerings, with significant market share gains in semiconductor equipment sectors such as etching and thin films [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: CNY 29.84 billion - 2025E: CNY 39.51 billion - 2026E: CNY 50.15 billion - 2027E: CNY 60.22 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 35.1%, 32.4%, 26.9%, and 20.1% respectively [3][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: CNY 5.62 billion - 2025E: CNY 7.35 billion - 2026E: CNY 9.61 billion - 2027E: CNY 12.11 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 44.2%, 30.7%, 30.8%, and 26.0% respectively [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: CNY 7.79 - 2025E: CNY 10.18 - 2026E: CNY 13.32 - 2027E: CNY 16.78 [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic substitution processes amid current international trade dynamics [8][9]. - The report notes that the company has made significant investments in R&D, with expenditures reaching CNY 29.15 billion in the first half of 2025, a 30.01% increase year-on-year [8][9]. - The acquisition of a 17.87% stake in ChipSource Micro, a leader in coating and developing equipment, is expected to enhance the company's product matrix and market competitiveness [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry remains resilient and continues to present investment opportunities, especially in the context of fluctuating market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has shown significant growth and excess returns, with the semiconductor sector's revenue reaching 148.34 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, and net profit growing by 35.4% to 9.283 billion yuan [3]. - The semiconductor equipment segment stands out, with revenues of 73.22 billion yuan in 2024 and 17.74 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33% and 37%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current semiconductor equipment cycle appears to be far from over, with inventory levels reaching historical highs of 66.97 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 27% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for equipment [5]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are entering a platform development phase, enhancing their capabilities and product coverage, which opens new growth avenues [5]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment sector is poised for growth due to increased demand from cloud computing and AI, with North American cloud providers expected to spend 345 billion USD in capital expenditures by 2025, a 37% increase [7]. - The domestic market is also benefiting from a shift towards local equipment due to U.S. export restrictions, with local equipment winning approximately 82% of the bids for new semiconductor production lines [8]. Group 4: Import Dependency - Despite the ongoing push for domestic production, China still relies heavily on imports for semiconductor equipment, with an import dependency rate of 67.7% as of 2024, highlighting the need for continued development of local manufacturers [9][10]. Group 5: Materials Sector - The semiconductor materials market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 143.78 billion yuan in 2024, a 26.2% increase, and expected to reach 174.08 billion yuan in 2025 [11]. - Domestic material companies have made substantial technological advancements, indicating a growing capability to integrate into the local supply chain [11].

Core Viewpoint - North Huachuang has emerged as a leading player in the A-share semiconductor industry, achieving a remarkable profit growth from 41.87 million to 5.621 billion yuan over the past decade, marking a 134-fold increase, and surpassing SMIC to become the new "profit king" in 2024 [3][4][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - North Huachuang is recognized as a key player in China's semiconductor industry, inheriting a rich technological legacy from its predecessor companies, including the development of China's first diffusion furnace and plasma etching machine [5]. - The company has expanded its product line through acquisitions, including Akrion Systems LLC and assets from Beiguang Technology, enhancing its capabilities in high-end integrated circuit equipment [5]. - North Huachuang is the only Chinese company in the global top 10 semiconductor equipment manufacturers, ranking sixth in 2024, and is positioned as a platform-type enterprise, which is crucial for competing at the highest level globally [9][11]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by cloud computing, edge devices, and AI computing power, with China's chip manufacturing expected to grow by 15% in 2024 and 14% in 2025, capturing nearly one-third of global capacity [13]. - The U.S. government's restrictions on China's semiconductor industry have intensified, leading to a shift towards domestic alternatives, with significant sales from U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers in China expected to return to local companies [15][17]. - North Huachuang is actively expanding its market presence by entering the ion implantation equipment sector and acquiring ChipSource, which complements its existing product offerings and enhances its supply capabilities across the semiconductor manufacturing process [16].