Macro Strategy - The macro timing model for January 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the A-share index rising, with an average increase of 3.18% historically [1][7][19] - The trading volume of the index exceeded 20 trillion yuan in the last week of 2025, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][7] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the futures margin ratio twice at the end of December 2025, causing significant volatility in the metals sector [1][7] ETF Recommendations - The report recommends a growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic market outlook for January [1][7] - Notable inflows were observed in ETFs related to robotics, industrial non-ferrous metals, and satellite communications, suggesting increased investor interest in these sectors [1][7] Hong Kong Market - The listing of Wallen Technology and the strong performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index on January 2, 2026, particularly in the semiconductor sector, indicate potential for good absolute returns in the Hong Kong market during the spring rally [1][7][19] Nasdaq 100 ETF Insights - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a 0.73% decline in December 2025, influenced by cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and concerns over AI company earnings [5][22] - As of December 31, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a PE ratio of 35.93, indicating it is at a relatively high historical valuation [5][22] - The index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in January 2026, driven by macroeconomic signals and earnings reports from major tech companies [5][22][23] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of the AI and semiconductor sectors, which are expected to see increased attention and funding in early 2026 due to positive sentiment and demand recovery [2][21] - The gaming sector is also benefiting from the regular issuance of game licenses, providing marginal support to content-related stocks [2][21] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses the performance of specific companies such as the Honey Snow Group, which is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market with a strong supply chain and brand recognition [13] - North Huachuang is noted for its platform-based semiconductor equipment leadership, benefiting from increased capital expenditure and domestic production rate improvements [15]

证券研究报告 晨会 2026 年 01 月 04 日 hyzqdatemark 华源晨会精粹 20260104 投资要点： 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 期。 固定收益 制造业 PMI 超季节性回升——2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评：制造业 PMI 超季 节性回升，为 25 年 4 月以来首次回到荣枯线以上，非制造业 PMI 时隔一个月重回 扩张区间。12 月制造业 PMI 环比+0.9pct 至 50.1%，21 至 24 年同期制造业 PMI 平 均环比-0.35pct，12 月制造业 PMI 超季节性上升或因 1）中美经贸谈判取得良好进 展影响企业预期，回补前期海外圣诞节等需求；2）高技术制造业持续快速增长，其 PMI 升至 25 年高点；3）或受前期低基数影响，部分行业产能扩张。12 月制造业 PMI 产需均有所扩张，出口和高新行业表现亮眼。非制造业 PMI 持续扩张。我们预 计 2026 年政策利率下调 20BP 左右，一季度可能迎来政策利率下调 10BP。中长期 来看，30Y 国债收益率跟人口结构紧密相关，我们预判，2026 年债市行情可能好于 预期。当前，我们建议重点关注 5Y 银行资本债及 ...

在半导体设备领域，公司重点布局前道环节的刻蚀、薄膜沉积设备，后道环节的先进封装设备，订单有 望迎来快速增长。在半导体前道设备中，公司重点布局刻蚀设备与薄膜沉积设备两大品类。其中，半导 体高选择比刻蚀设备和原子层沉积设备凭借差异化技术创新实现关键突破，目前已进入多家头部晶圆客 户和存储客户，进入量产阶段。在半导体封装设备中，公司在晶圆切割、研磨、抛光、键合等高精度加 工环节可提供成套工艺设备解决方案，已与长电科技、通富微电、华天科技、盛合晶微、甬矽电子等国 内头部封装企业建立了紧密合作。公司2025年前三季度半导体设备新签订单已超过2024 年全年半导体 设备订单量，保持了高速增长。 盈利预测与评级： 我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为9.23/10.07/11.10 亿元，同比增速分别 为-0.28%/+9.04%/+10.27%，当前股价对应PE 分别为62.34、57.17、51.84 倍。选取A 股泛半导体类设备 供应商微导纳米、中微公司、拓荆科技作为可比公司，按照wind 一致预期，可比公司2025-2027平均PE 分别为86.90、58.52、42.66 倍。考虑公司从光伏设备向泛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector has experienced significant growth, leading the rebound in technology stocks, but has recently faced a correction after a period of rapid gains [1][7]. Group 1: Recent Performance - The semiconductor equipment index surged over 30% in half a month and over 50% in three months, becoming the standout performer in the A-share market [1][7]. - From September 22 to September 24, the index rose a cumulative 16.85%, outperforming 276 other industry indices [3]. - On September 24, several semiconductor equipment ETFs reached their daily limit up, with notable gains of 9.55%, 9.44%, and 9.4% [3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Key factors driving the recent surge include the establishment of Changcun Phase III Integrated Circuit Co., which is expected to enhance domestic semiconductor equipment production capacity [3]. - The increase in storage chip prices has exceeded market expectations, likely driving global storage chip capacity expansion [3]. - The recent display of lithography machines at the Industrial Expo has positively influenced market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent correction in the semiconductor equipment index is a natural adjustment after substantial gains, with the long-term growth trajectory remaining intact due to AI demand [6][7]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to continue benefiting from increasing domestic production rates and capital expenditure expansion, with projections indicating sustained high investment levels in wafer fabrication equipment [8]. - The semiconductor industry is a key focus of national policy support, indicating a favorable development outlook [9].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 29.51% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 16.142 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 42.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 14.97% to 3.208 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 20.17% to 3.181 billion yuan [1][2] - The semiconductor equipment business showed strong performance, particularly in etching, thin film, and thermal processing segments, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.936 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.84% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.30% [1] - The gross margin for Q2 was 41.29%, down 6.11 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The electronic process equipment segment generated 15.258 billion yuan in revenue, up 33.89% year-on-year, while the electronic components segment saw a decline of 17.47% to 868 million yuan [2] Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its product matrix through both internal R&D and external acquisitions, with R&D investment reaching 2.915 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30.01% increase [3] - The acquisition of 17.87% of ChipSource Micro strengthens the company's position in the domestic market, complementing its existing product lines [3] Market Outlook - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to benefit from accelerated localization efforts, with the company positioned as a leading platform player [4] - The expansion of domestic wafer fabs and the introduction of new products are anticipated to drive significant growth and market share gains for the company [4] Investment Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, with projected revenues of 39.509 billion, 50.146 billion, and 60.221 billion yuan respectively [4] - The net profit estimates for the same period have been slightly revised, with EPS expected to be 10.18, 13.32, and 16.78 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4][23]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with a projected total revenue of CNY 39.51 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [3][8]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 7.35 billion in 2025, a growth of 30.7% compared to the previous year [3][8]. - The report highlights the successful platformization of the company's product offerings, with significant market share gains in semiconductor equipment sectors such as etching and thin films [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: CNY 29.84 billion - 2025E: CNY 39.51 billion - 2026E: CNY 50.15 billion - 2027E: CNY 60.22 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 35.1%, 32.4%, 26.9%, and 20.1% respectively [3][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: CNY 5.62 billion - 2025E: CNY 7.35 billion - 2026E: CNY 9.61 billion - 2027E: CNY 12.11 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 44.2%, 30.7%, 30.8%, and 26.0% respectively [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: CNY 7.79 - 2025E: CNY 10.18 - 2026E: CNY 13.32 - 2027E: CNY 16.78 [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic substitution processes amid current international trade dynamics [8][9]. - The report notes that the company has made significant investments in R&D, with expenditures reaching CNY 29.15 billion in the first half of 2025, a 30.01% increase year-on-year [8][9]. - The acquisition of a 17.87% stake in ChipSource Micro, a leader in coating and developing equipment, is expected to enhance the company's product matrix and market competitiveness [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by overseas HJT equipment and semiconductor manufacturing expansion [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year - Q2 revenue was 1.98 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.0%, while net profit for Q2 was 230 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.0% [1]. Margin Improvement - The company reported a gross margin of 39.0% in Q2 2025, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 9.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter - The net profit margin was 12.3%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 5.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to revenue recognition from overseas HJT equipment and semiconductor equipment [1]. Cost Management - The company recorded a provision for impairment of approximately 400 million yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 9.4% of revenue, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year - The provision mainly relates to credit impairment of 300 million yuan due to pressure on profitability from downstream solar industry clients - The total expense ratio for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses was 17.40%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2]. Equipment and Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its layout in semiconductor equipment, focusing on etching and thin film deposition equipment - High-selectivity etching equipment and atomic layer deposition equipment have entered mass production after multiple customer deliveries - The company maintains a leading market share in domestic wafer laser grooving equipment and has developed various bonding equipment, enhancing its overall solution offerings [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 912 million, 1.029 billion, and 1.090 billion yuan, representing decreases of 23%, 21%, and 25% respectively - The estimated EPS for these years is 3.26, 3.68, and 3.90 yuan - Despite short-term profit impacts from slower revenue recognition in the solar business, the acceleration in semiconductor equipment layout is expected to open new growth avenues [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 110.84 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.21 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 390 million, down 14.6% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed a revenue of RMB 1.98 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0%, but a net profit of RMB 230 million, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.0% [1]. - The increase in gross margin to 39.0% in Q2, up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 9.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, is attributed to the recognition of revenue from overseas HJT equipment and semiconductor equipment [2]. - The company has good cost control, with a provision for impairment of approximately RMB 400 million in the first half of 2025, which accounts for 9.4% of revenue, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is accelerating its layout in semiconductor equipment, particularly in etching and thin film deposition equipment, which have entered mass production stages with multiple customer deliveries [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 4.21 billion, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 390 million, down 14.6% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of RMB 1.98 billion, a decrease of 11.0% quarter-on-quarter, but a net profit increase of 43.0% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 was reported at 39.0%, reflecting an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 9.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by revenue recognition from overseas HJT equipment and semiconductor equipment [2]. Cost Control - The company demonstrated strong cost control with an impairment provision of approximately RMB 400 million in the first half of 2025, representing 9.4% of revenue, which is an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Equipment Layout and Market Position - The company is rapidly expanding its semiconductor equipment business, focusing on etching and thin film deposition equipment, which have successfully entered mass production with several customer deliveries [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to challenges in the photovoltaic sector and a significant growth in the semiconductor business [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 4.213 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 394 million yuan, down 14.59% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 364 million yuan, a decrease of 10.18% [1] - In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.984 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.15% year-on-year decline [2] Business Segment Analysis - The photovoltaic business generated revenue of 4.065 billion yuan in the first half, contributing significantly to the overall revenue decline due to a slowdown in order receipt amid low industry demand [2] - The semiconductor and display business saw rapid growth, with revenue reaching 127 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 496.9% year-on-year [3] - The company has made significant advancements in semiconductor equipment, particularly in etching and thin film deposition, and has maintained a leading market share in domestic wafer laser grooving equipment [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of Q2, the company's inventory stood at 7.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.34 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, while accounts receivable increased by 910 million yuan to 4.86 billion yuan [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -1.067 billion yuan, primarily impacted by slow customer payment collection [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 829 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 791 million yuan for 2025-2027, with dynamic PE ratios of 28.8, 37.3, and 30.2 respectively [3] - The company's strong technical capabilities and rapid growth in the semiconductor business support a "recommended" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 542.5 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in performance, driven by both organic growth and external expansion, accelerating its platform development [2][7]. - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to benefit from increased demand due to AI chips and automotive electronics, with the company positioned as a leading platform provider [7]. - The report highlights the company's successful product expansion and market share increase, particularly in semiconductor equipment, which has led to significant revenue growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 29,838 million CNY in 2024 to 58,123 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.8% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 5,621 million CNY in 2024 to 12,105 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 27.6% [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 10.52 CNY in 2024 to 22.66 CNY in 2027 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved breakthroughs in several semiconductor equipment products, significantly enhancing its market coverage and share [7]. - The report notes that the company is actively expanding its product lines and has made strategic acquisitions to complement its offerings [7]. - The domestic market for semiconductor equipment is expected to grow as local manufacturers increase their procurement of domestic equipment, benefiting the company [7].