猪价也随之反弹，根据博亚和讯，12月12日全国外三元生猪均价为11.48元/kg，周环比上涨2.5%，但总 体仍处于低位；15公斤仔猪均价19.04元/公斤，周环比下降1.14%。 低猪价下，养殖端延续亏损，行业自繁自养与外购仔猪模式分别录得每头146元和75元的亏损，且为第 11周的全行业亏损。 12月15日，猪肉股早盘走强，截至发稿，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）涨1.56%，盘中成交额较前一日放 大，成份股正邦科技、天康生物涨超7%，牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团涨超1%。 进入12月传统腌腊旺季，季节性消费带来一定提振，12月12日当周，样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增加 3.76%。 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）跟踪的中证畜牧养殖指数覆盖生猪养殖产业链，根据历史表现，在供需关系驱 动下，畜牧养殖板块呈现明显的周期性，整体和猪价变化相关性较强。值得关注的是，根据基金合同， 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）管理费率为0.2%/年，相对同指数ETF品种更低。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 东方证券指出，参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。此外，政策 端也在持续强化对头部集团场 ...

Group 1: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.02 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 0.21% [3] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [3] - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week, while the national frozen meat storage rate increased to 13.89%, up 0.09 percentage points [3] Group 2: Chicken Prices - The price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, and the price of chicks was 2.74 yuan/chick, down 3.52% week-on-week [4] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing slow sales of frozen chicken products, leading to increased inventory and reduced slaughter rates [4] - The current season is characterized by low profits for farmers, which is suppressing chick prices [4] Group 3: Grain Prices - The average spot price of corn was 2405.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% week-on-week, while soybean meal averaged 2968 yuan/ton, up 0.94% week-on-week [5] - The average price of wheat decreased to 2430.39 yuan/ton, down 0.13% week-on-week [5] - The increase in corn prices is attributed to reduced circulation due to wheat harvesting and traders holding onto their stocks [5] Group 4: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price rose to 13815 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [6] - Supply is tightening due to seasonal harvesting and adverse weather conditions affecting production [6] - Demand from tire manufacturers is recovering, leading to an increase in production capacity utilization [6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 【农林牧渔】3月猪企销售月报解读——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250407-20250413） 根据博亚和讯，4月11日全国外三元生猪均价为14.66元/kg，周环比+0.41%，15公斤仔猪均价37.2元/公 斤，周环比上涨0.32%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为128.81kg，周环比下降0.08kg，全国冻 品库容率为14.94%，环比上升0.11pct。本周涌益出栏均重结束了2月初以来的持续上行，对应行业库存拐 点初步显现。 （李晓渊） 2025-04-13 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【海外TMT】关税驱动国产替代加速，模拟、射频、成熟制程代工等领域受益——中美关税互搏对半导 体行业的影响点评 中美持续性高关税推动半导体国产替代。1）关税政策为模拟、射频、存储、CPU等芯片厂商带来结构性机 会。中国关税反制将抬升美系IDM厂商成本，国产厂商将获得更多市场份额。2）晶圆代工厂国产替代加速， 成熟制程需求提升，利好①华虹半导体：中国客户竞争力增强、订单增长，有望承接美系IDM厂商成熟制程订 单；②中芯国际：供应链安全将驱动更多中国芯片厂商回流 ...

Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)", which includes a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises: "Standard Enterprises" and "Leading Standard Enterprises" [3] - Under the broader policy goal of "supply-side better adapting to demand changes", the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is likely to improve accordingly [3] Oil and Chemical Industry - On March 3, OPEC+ decided to increase production, raising concerns about the supply side of crude oil, leading to a drop in oil prices [4] - As of March 7, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices were reported at $70.45 and $67.05 per barrel, reflecting declines of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively from the previous week [4] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of March 7, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets decreased by 0.76% to 32.76 yuan/kg [5] - The average weight of commodity pigs for slaughter was 127.06 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.54 kg, and the cold storage capacity of slaughterhouses rose by 0.50 percentage points to 13.32% [5] Coal Mining Industry - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by strong long-term contract mechanisms [6][7] - The coal industry associations have issued a proposal to control production, indicating their commitment to maintaining the long-term contract system [7] Electric Power and Environmental Protection - The report suggests a balanced allocation among lithium batteries, power grids, and wind power to mitigate volatility in humanoid robots and computing power sectors [8] - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak production season with stable fundamentals, while high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, copper foil, and fast-charging anodes are expected to see price increases [8] Automotive Industry - The focus on automotive intelligence was highlighted during the National People's Congress, with expectations for significant growth in electric vehicle consumption in 2025 [9] - The release of new car models is anticipated to boost consumer demand, and the impact of potential escalations in US-China tariff conflicts on export component companies is under observation [9] Technology Industry - A significant number of computing power leasing orders have been announced, and policies related to robotics are being released [10] - The government work report mentioned key technology areas such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology, indicating a focus on advanced technological development [10]