最近两个交易日生猪期货接连大涨近5%，同时持仓量显著增加，资金流入明显，说明埋伏生猪板块阶段行情的越来越多了。 二级市场方面，重仓生猪养殖股的畜牧养殖ETF（516670）成功录得5连涨，昨天盘中还获得了734万的资金净流入，吸金效应也开始显现。 一个是最强反内卷政策提振。 最近重要部门要治理企业"无需竞争"、推动落后产能有序退出，这和生猪板块最近两个月一直受政策推进加速产能去化的动线相契合。 之前5月底约谈头部集团要求稳产降重，然后农业农村部6月上旬召开生猪生产调度会，通过降低出栏均重减少今年下半年的供给、和限制基础产能（调减 100万头）稳定明年上半年供给。 此外，6月11日中央储备库进行今年以来首次真正意义的国产冻猪肉收储，此前5次收储都属于等量轮储，此次承储企业需在8月10日前保质保量完成入库。 所以几次大动作综合下来，大家看到了决心，对情绪有明显的提振作用。 第二个是季节性需求与投机资金共振。 今年2月起猪价一直震荡走低，再加上政策对体重、产能的控制，导致6月供应开始收紧；再加上收储政策和二育补栏，6月9日以来全国猪价涨势持续扩大。 为什么生猪板块开始启动？两个原因： 随着生猪逐渐进入消费旺季，市场 ...

点评：养殖ETF（159865）今日上午上涨0.68%，其规模较大，达到58.05亿份，半日成交金额为3825万元。该ETF追踪的是中证畜牧养殖指数，追踪该指数 的ETF还包括畜牧ETF（159867）、养殖ETF（516760）和畜牧养殖ETF（516670）。 每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 中证畜牧养殖指数从沪深证券中，选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 该指数在农业板块指数中表现出最好的历史收益率表现的同时，在几只指数当中也表现出较小的回撤，使得中证畜牧指数在夏普比率的表现上同样优于其他 农业板块指数，拥有较好的投资价值。 今日上午，A股热点分散，水产品、宠物经济、合成生物等涨幅靠前。ETF市场方面，畜牧养殖类ETF整体涨幅靠前，平均涨幅超过0.5%。 | | | 畜牧养殖行业相关ETF | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% | 现价 | | 159865 | 养殖ETF | 0.68 | 0.594 | | 159867 | 畜牧ETF | 0.5 | 0.604 | | ...

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]