Core Viewpoint - The pig farming sector is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, leading to significantly enhanced expectations for capacity optimization [1][4]. Group 1: Policy and Capacity Optimization - The core issue facing the pig industry is overcapacity, with the breeding sow inventory reaching 40.43 million heads as of June 2025, which is 103.7% of the normal holding level [4]. - Policies are being implemented to control production capacity, including a directive to reduce the breeding sow count by 1 million heads to a target of 39.5 million [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is monitoring the market, indicating a 0.8% decrease in the inventory of pigs over 5 months old in June, suggesting a potential reduction in pig output in July and August [6]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring and Competitive Advantages - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape, accelerating the exit of inefficient production capacities, which benefits quality listed pig companies [7]. - Cost competition is becoming crucial, with leading companies like Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group achieving production costs as low as 12-12.5 yuan per kilogram, providing them with a long-term competitive edge [7]. - Recent earnings forecasts from 14 listed companies indicate that 11 expect profit increases, with Muyuan Foods projecting a 1190% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of the year [7][8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The DCE pig futures surged by 1.67% on July 23, reaching a new high for the year, while the livestock farming ETF (516670) rose by 3.37% over the week, with a cumulative net inflow of 115 million yuan [1]. - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index's price-to-book ratio is approximately 2.53 times, still relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for investment [1][4].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs convened major pig farming companies to discuss promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, signaling a shift towards efficiency rather than scale [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to efficiency, with leading companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][4] - The government aims to stabilize pig prices and prevent overproduction, indicating a commitment to maintaining industry balance and supporting cost-effective producers [4][6] Industry Dynamics - The recent meetings and discussions reflect a clear "anti-involution" strategy, aiming to curb reckless expansion among high-cost producers [2][4] - The profitability of pig farming has been consistent for 14 months, with 11 out of 14 listed pig companies reporting positive performance in their semi-annual reports [3][4] - Large funds are increasingly investing in leading pig farming companies, as evidenced by significant inflows into the livestock farming ETF (516670), which has seen over 100 million yuan in recent investments [4][6] Market Trends - The ETF related to livestock farming shows strong upward momentum, indicating growing investor interest in the sector [6] - The government's proactive stance on industry regulation is expected to increase in intensity, reinforcing the trend towards prioritizing quality over quantity in production [4][6] - The focus on cost control and efficiency is likely to further enhance the competitive edge of leading companies in the pig farming sector [4][6]

Group 1 - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has recorded five consecutive days of gains, with a net inflow of 7.34 million in funds, indicating a strong attraction to the sector [2] - The revival of the pig sector is attributed to two main reasons: the implementation of anti-competitive policies and seasonal demand [4][5] - Recent government actions, including a reduction in production capacity and the first significant domestic frozen pork storage this year, have boosted market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Seasonal demand is increasing as the market anticipates price hikes for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, leading to speculative investments [5] - Since February, pig prices have been fluctuating downwards, but supply has tightened since June due to government policies, resulting in a price increase of 8.5% from 14.06 yuan per kilogram to 15.25 yuan per kilogram [7] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, are favored by investors due to their strong cost control and high output realization [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market shows a diverse range of hot sectors, with significant gains in aquaculture, pet economy, and synthetic biology [1] - In the ETF market, livestock-related ETFs have performed well, with an average increase of over 0.5% [1] - The Livestock ETF (159865) rose by 0.68% today, with a current price of 0.594 and a total share count of 5.805 billion [2][3] Group 2 - The livestock industry is undergoing a critical transformation towards quality improvement and efficiency, driven by the rural revitalization strategy [2] - The China Livestock Breeding Index, which tracks companies involved in feed, veterinary medicine, and livestock farming, has shown the best historical returns among agricultural indices [3] - Key weight stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index include Hai Da Group (12.43%), Mu Yuan (10.03%), and Wen's Shares (9.79%) [4][5]

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]