猪价也随之反弹，根据博亚和讯，12月12日全国外三元生猪均价为11.48元/kg，周环比上涨2.5%，但总 体仍处于低位；15公斤仔猪均价19.04元/公斤，周环比下降1.14%。 低猪价下，养殖端延续亏损，行业自繁自养与外购仔猪模式分别录得每头146元和75元的亏损，且为第 11周的全行业亏损。 12月15日，猪肉股早盘走强，截至发稿，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）涨1.56%，盘中成交额较前一日放 大，成份股正邦科技、天康生物涨超7%，牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团涨超1%。 进入12月传统腌腊旺季，季节性消费带来一定提振，12月12日当周，样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增加 3.76%。 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）跟踪的中证畜牧养殖指数覆盖生猪养殖产业链，根据历史表现，在供需关系驱 动下，畜牧养殖板块呈现明显的周期性，整体和猪价变化相关性较强。值得关注的是，根据基金合同， 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）管理费率为0.2%/年，相对同指数ETF品种更低。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 东方证券指出，参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。此外，政策 端也在持续强化对头部集团场 ...

Core Insights - The pork stocks have seen an increase, with notable gains in companies like Luoniushan and Jinxinnong, while the Livestock Breeding ETF has also experienced a net inflow of approximately 96 million yuan over the past 20 trading days [1][3] Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the national breeding sow inventory for October was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from September, marking a decline of 1.1% [1] - The average price of live pigs as of November 24 was 11.6 yuan/kg, down from 12.25 yuan/kg on September 30, indicating a price drop of 0.65 yuan/kg [3] - The price of piglets also fell to 21.21 yuan/kg, down 1.01 yuan/kg from 22.22 yuan/kg on September 30 [3] - The pig-to-grain ratio is currently at 5.23, down from 5.44 at the end of September, reflecting significant supply pressure in the industry [3] Financial Performance - The current profitability for purchased piglets and self-bred piglets is reported at -234.64 yuan/head and -135.9 yuan/head respectively, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous week [3] - The industry is facing comprehensive losses, with supply pressures expected to persist in the short term, leading to passive capacity reduction [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the industry may enter an accelerated phase of capacity reduction due to dual pressures from policy adjustments and production losses, presenting potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [4] - In the medium to long term, leading breeding companies are expected to see a decrease in costs and an increase in profit margins, supported by stable cash flows and dividend expectations [4] - The Livestock Breeding ETF, which tracks the livestock breeding index, has the lowest management fee rate of 0.2% per year among similar ETFs, making it an attractive option for investors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in pork prices, leading to a collective rise in pork-related stocks, with notable increases in companies like Luoniushan and Muyuan Foods [1][2] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) experienced a 1.12% increase, with a substantial net inflow of 390 million yuan over the past ten trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs increased by 6.1% from 11.8 yuan/kg to 12.52 yuan/kg within a week, and the weekly average price rose by 7.3% from 11.5 yuan/kg to 12.34 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - The reduction in losses for pig farming is evident, with the profit from purchased piglets and self-breeding pigs narrowing to -89.33 yuan/head and -179.72 yuan/head respectively, indicating an improvement from the previous week [2] - The industry is witnessing a proactive reduction in production capacity despite the narrowing losses, with a focus on enhancing quality and efficiency in the long term, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pig price levels [2] - The livestock farming index covers the entire pig farming industry chain, with over 60% of the index weight attributed to pig-related stocks, and nearly 40% related to upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recent rebound in pig prices, with an average price of 12.51 yuan/kg as of October 30, reflecting a rise of 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous day and an increase of approximately 1.5 yuan/kg from mid-October's lowest point [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by seasonal consumption recovery and heightened sentiment for secondary fattening, while long-term trends suggest a downward shift in pig prices due to deepening breeding losses and ongoing capacity regulation policies [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reiterated the need for stronger regulation of pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.35 million at the end of September, a decrease of 450,000 from the peak at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The livestock breeding ETF has attracted significant capital attention, with a net inflow of 520 million yuan over 16 consecutive days, bringing the total scale to 1.393 billion yuan, a new high since its listing [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which covers the pig breeding industry chain, has a management fee rate of 0.2% per year, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking this index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the challenges faced by the pig farming industry, particularly the declining prices of live pigs and the resulting financial pressures on leading companies like Wen's Foodstuffs [1][2] - Wen's Foodstuffs reported a slight decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 75.888 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.03% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 18.29% year-on-year to 5.256 billion yuan, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 24.60% to 4.889 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The quarterly performance of Wen's Foodstuffs shows a trend of slowing revenue and profit growth, with revenue figures of 24.331 billion yuan, 25.543 billion yuan, and 25.937 billion yuan for the three quarters, reflecting year-on-year changes of 11.37%, 1.20%, and -9.76% respectively [1] - The net profit for the same quarters was 2.001 billion yuan, 1.473 billion yuan, and 1.781 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 261.92%, -42.83%, and -65.02% respectively [1] - The pig farming industry is currently under pressure from falling market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an expected increase in the motivation for capacity reduction [2] - The valuation of most listed pig farming companies is at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment value [2] - On October 23, the livestock farming ETF (516670) saw a net inflow of 23.23 million yuan in a single day, with a cumulative net inflow of 230 million yuan over the past 12 trading days, reaching a new high in fund size at 1.088 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen significant inflows, with nearly 22 million yuan on a single day and a total of 210 million yuan over the past 11 days, reaching a new high of 1.063 billion yuan since its listing [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In September, the overall sales revenue of listed pig farming companies declined, with a total revenue of 21.647 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77% [3] - The decline in sales revenue is attributed to significantly lower pig prices compared to the same period last year, as well as a continuous drop in prices in September [3][4] - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in September was 15.2934 million heads, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.11% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.92% [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price decline is influenced by both ample supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being marketed due to the release of new production capacity from last year [4] - The number of breeding sows in September was 40.35 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a slight month-on-month decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%) [4] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - Since May, the industry has been focusing on "de-involution," with multiple meetings held by the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and industry associations to control production capacity and reduce weight [5] - With the increasing enforcement of policies and recent pig prices entering a loss zone, it is expected that the industry's capacity reduction will accelerate in the fourth quarter, with a potential upward trend in pig prices anticipated in the second half of next year [5] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has a management fee rate of 0.2% per year, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking the livestock farming index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic live pig market has shown signs of rebound in recent days, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, although short to medium-term pressures remain evident due to oversupply [1][2][3] Price Trends - The live pig futures price fell over 12% in October, reaching a low of 11,120 yuan/ton, following a decline of 11.36% in September [1][2] - On October 15, the average pig price in Guangdong was reported at 4.98:1, entering a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - The national average pig price saw a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg on October 14 and further rose by 0.11 yuan/kg on October 15, surpassing 11 yuan/kg [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Increased supply from breeding farms and insufficient demand have led to a rapid decline in pig prices since September [2] - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with significant outflows from major breeding enterprises [5][7] Market Sentiment and Investment - Recent inflows into livestock breeding ETFs indicate market optimism regarding short-term price stabilization and long-term industry potential [5] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity and reducing weights will support a long-term price increase [7][9] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction cycle, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of next year [7][9] - Short-term price pressures are likely to persist due to high production levels and reduced consumer demand post-holidays [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has reached a new low, prompting 25 major pig farming companies to be required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in the livestock farming sector [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-September, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 13 yuan per kilogram, marking a new low [1] - The main futures contract for live pigs (LH2511) fell to 12.595 yuan per kilogram, also a new low [1] - The average price of live pigs is now below the cost line for some farming enterprises, leading to widespread losses in the sector [1] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The profit from purchasing piglets was reported at -199.31 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits were at -24.44 yuan per head, indicating a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [1] - The average weight of pigs at market has increased from 127.8 kg in August to 128.45 kg in September, suggesting higher supply levels [1] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - A meeting was held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, where 25 leading pig farming companies were instructed to reduce production [2] - The policy focus is on "controlling production and nurturing" while detailing the "controlling reproductive capacity" tasks for each farming entity [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of regulatory controls and losses [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a net inflow of 117 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating investor interest despite current market conditions [1] - The ETF closely tracks the livestock farming index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a rally, driven by preliminary anti-dumping measures on EU pork imports, which may lead to an increase in domestic pork prices as supply tightens [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 8, the livestock sector saw significant gains, with companies like Lihua Co. rising over 7%, and others such as Xiaoming Co., Jinxinnong, and Shennong Group increasing by more than 5% [1]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) rose by 3.10% [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary investigation into anti-dumping of EU pork and by-products confirmed dumping behavior and its harm to the domestic industry, leading to a decision to implement temporary anti-dumping measures by September 5, 2025 [3]. - Over 50% of China's imported pork and by-products come from the EU, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties is expected to raise domestic pork prices [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - As of September 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.84 yuan/kg, indicating a low point in recent years, suggesting that current prices may be at a temporary bottom [3]. - The breeding stock of sows saw a slight decrease of 0.80% in August, indicating a tightening supply [5]. - The livestock sector's overall valuation remains low, with the CSI Livestock Breeding Index at 2.72 times PB, which is at the 16% historical percentile, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As temperatures cool, demand is expected to improve marginally, leading to tighter supply of market pigs and potentially increasing pork prices [7]. - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with expectations of increased concentration and better supply-demand dynamics as policies take effect [7]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, indicating a strong focus on the sector [7].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower the weight of pigs, marking a significant phase in capacity regulation [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity Management - The national target for the breeding sow inventory has been adjusted down by 1 million heads to alleviate supply surplus pressure [3]. - Measures include halting secondary fattening and controlling the market behavior to prevent excessive inventory [3]. - The target for the average slaughter weight is set around 120 kg to avoid overstocking and subsequent supply excess [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the national average price of live pigs reached 6.98 yuan per jin, marking a new low for the year [5]. - Historical data indicates that if the breeding sow inventory decreases to 39 million heads, pig prices could rise by 11%-19% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, reflecting a price elasticity driven by supply improvements [7]. - The current valuation of the livestock sector is at a historical low, with the China Livestock Index at a price-to-book ratio of only 2.67, placing it in the 12th percentile historically [7]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Low cost is identified as the core competitive advantage for listed pig companies to navigate the pig cycle, with a focus on companies that excel in cost control or have clear cost-reduction pathways [1][8]. - The recovery of livestock inventory is expected to gradually boost demand for feed, while the approaching high temperatures will lead to a sales peak for aquatic feed [1][9]. - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Index, with over 60% of its components related to pig farming, and nearly 40% encompassing upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [10][14].