11月26日盘中，猪肉股盘中上涨，罗牛山涨超6%，金新农、海大集团等跟涨。 低费率"养猪ETF"——畜牧养殖ETF（516670）涨0.68%。行情数据显示，截至11月25日，该ETF近20个 交易日累计获资金净流入约9600万元。 消息面上，近期农业农村部公布10月全国能繁母猪存栏量为3990万头，环比9月下降45万头，降幅为 1.1%（前值-0.2%）。能繁母猪时隔17个月重回4000万头以下。 中邮证券指出，当前距离产能调减目标设定的时间期限越来越近，政策执行力度、养殖企业压力等都将 有所加大；同时行业全面亏损继续，且供给压力短期难以缓解，产能被动去化将有所增加；另外秋冬季 节疾病扰动加剧。政策、行业周期性及季节性影响等多重因素影响下，预计近期生猪产能去化仍是行业 主调，明年下半年猪价有望迎来新一轮上行趋势。 江海证券认为，在"反内卷"的政策调控和亏损减产的双重驱动下，行业产能有望迎来加速去化期，可左 侧布局生猪养殖板块。中长期看，在行业高质量发展的背景下，龙头养殖企业成本持续下降，周期头均 盈利中枢或将提升，叠加政策控制资本开支减少，企业持续稳定现金流增加分红预期。 畜牧养殖ETF（516670）跟踪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in pork prices, leading to a collective rise in pork-related stocks, with notable increases in companies like Luoniushan and Muyuan Foods [1][2] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) experienced a 1.12% increase, with a substantial net inflow of 390 million yuan over the past ten trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs increased by 6.1% from 11.8 yuan/kg to 12.52 yuan/kg within a week, and the weekly average price rose by 7.3% from 11.5 yuan/kg to 12.34 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - The reduction in losses for pig farming is evident, with the profit from purchased piglets and self-breeding pigs narrowing to -89.33 yuan/head and -179.72 yuan/head respectively, indicating an improvement from the previous week [2] - The industry is witnessing a proactive reduction in production capacity despite the narrowing losses, with a focus on enhancing quality and efficiency in the long term, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pig price levels [2] - The livestock farming index covers the entire pig farming industry chain, with over 60% of the index weight attributed to pig-related stocks, and nearly 40% related to upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recent rebound in pig prices, with an average price of 12.51 yuan/kg as of October 30, reflecting a rise of 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous day and an increase of approximately 1.5 yuan/kg from mid-October's lowest point [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by seasonal consumption recovery and heightened sentiment for secondary fattening, while long-term trends suggest a downward shift in pig prices due to deepening breeding losses and ongoing capacity regulation policies [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reiterated the need for stronger regulation of pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.35 million at the end of September, a decrease of 450,000 from the peak at the end of last year [1] Group 2 - The livestock breeding ETF has attracted significant capital attention, with a net inflow of 520 million yuan over 16 consecutive days, bringing the total scale to 1.393 billion yuan, a new high since its listing [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which covers the pig breeding industry chain, has a management fee rate of 0.2% per year, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking this index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the challenges faced by the pig farming industry, particularly the declining prices of live pigs and the resulting financial pressures on leading companies like Wen's Foodstuffs [1][2] - Wen's Foodstuffs reported a slight decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 75.888 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.03% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 18.29% year-on-year to 5.256 billion yuan, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 24.60% to 4.889 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The quarterly performance of Wen's Foodstuffs shows a trend of slowing revenue and profit growth, with revenue figures of 24.331 billion yuan, 25.543 billion yuan, and 25.937 billion yuan for the three quarters, reflecting year-on-year changes of 11.37%, 1.20%, and -9.76% respectively [1] - The net profit for the same quarters was 2.001 billion yuan, 1.473 billion yuan, and 1.781 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 261.92%, -42.83%, and -65.02% respectively [1] - The pig farming industry is currently under pressure from falling market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an expected increase in the motivation for capacity reduction [2] - The valuation of most listed pig farming companies is at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment value [2] - On October 23, the livestock farming ETF (516670) saw a net inflow of 23.23 million yuan in a single day, with a cumulative net inflow of 230 million yuan over the past 12 trading days, reaching a new high in fund size at 1.088 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen significant inflows, with nearly 22 million yuan on a single day and a total of 210 million yuan over the past 11 days, reaching a new high of 1.063 billion yuan since its listing [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In September, the overall sales revenue of listed pig farming companies declined, with a total revenue of 21.647 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77% [3] - The decline in sales revenue is attributed to significantly lower pig prices compared to the same period last year, as well as a continuous drop in prices in September [3][4] - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in September was 15.2934 million heads, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.11% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.92% [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price decline is influenced by both ample supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being marketed due to the release of new production capacity from last year [4] - The number of breeding sows in September was 40.35 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a slight month-on-month decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%) [4] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - Since May, the industry has been focusing on "de-involution," with multiple meetings held by the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and industry associations to control production capacity and reduce weight [5] - With the increasing enforcement of policies and recent pig prices entering a loss zone, it is expected that the industry's capacity reduction will accelerate in the fourth quarter, with a potential upward trend in pig prices anticipated in the second half of next year [5] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has a management fee rate of 0.2% per year, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking the livestock farming index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic live pig market has shown signs of rebound in recent days, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, although short to medium-term pressures remain evident due to oversupply [1][2][3] Price Trends - The live pig futures price fell over 12% in October, reaching a low of 11,120 yuan/ton, following a decline of 11.36% in September [1][2] - On October 15, the average pig price in Guangdong was reported at 4.98:1, entering a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - The national average pig price saw a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg on October 14 and further rose by 0.11 yuan/kg on October 15, surpassing 11 yuan/kg [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Increased supply from breeding farms and insufficient demand have led to a rapid decline in pig prices since September [2] - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with significant outflows from major breeding enterprises [5][7] Market Sentiment and Investment - Recent inflows into livestock breeding ETFs indicate market optimism regarding short-term price stabilization and long-term industry potential [5] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity and reducing weights will support a long-term price increase [7][9] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction cycle, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of next year [7][9] - Short-term price pressures are likely to persist due to high production levels and reduced consumer demand post-holidays [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has reached a new low, prompting 25 major pig farming companies to be required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in the livestock farming sector [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-September, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 13 yuan per kilogram, marking a new low [1] - The main futures contract for live pigs (LH2511) fell to 12.595 yuan per kilogram, also a new low [1] - The average price of live pigs is now below the cost line for some farming enterprises, leading to widespread losses in the sector [1] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The profit from purchasing piglets was reported at -199.31 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits were at -24.44 yuan per head, indicating a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [1] - The average weight of pigs at market has increased from 127.8 kg in August to 128.45 kg in September, suggesting higher supply levels [1] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - A meeting was held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, where 25 leading pig farming companies were instructed to reduce production [2] - The policy focus is on "controlling production and nurturing" while detailing the "controlling reproductive capacity" tasks for each farming entity [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of regulatory controls and losses [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a net inflow of 117 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating investor interest despite current market conditions [1] - The ETF closely tracks the livestock farming index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a rally, driven by preliminary anti-dumping measures on EU pork imports, which may lead to an increase in domestic pork prices as supply tightens [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 8, the livestock sector saw significant gains, with companies like Lihua Co. rising over 7%, and others such as Xiaoming Co., Jinxinnong, and Shennong Group increasing by more than 5% [1]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) rose by 3.10% [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary investigation into anti-dumping of EU pork and by-products confirmed dumping behavior and its harm to the domestic industry, leading to a decision to implement temporary anti-dumping measures by September 5, 2025 [3]. - Over 50% of China's imported pork and by-products come from the EU, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties is expected to raise domestic pork prices [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - As of September 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.84 yuan/kg, indicating a low point in recent years, suggesting that current prices may be at a temporary bottom [3]. - The breeding stock of sows saw a slight decrease of 0.80% in August, indicating a tightening supply [5]. - The livestock sector's overall valuation remains low, with the CSI Livestock Breeding Index at 2.72 times PB, which is at the 16% historical percentile, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As temperatures cool, demand is expected to improve marginally, leading to tighter supply of market pigs and potentially increasing pork prices [7]. - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with expectations of increased concentration and better supply-demand dynamics as policies take effect [7]. - The Livestock Breeding ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, indicating a strong focus on the sector [7].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower the weight of pigs, marking a significant phase in capacity regulation [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity Management - The national target for the breeding sow inventory has been adjusted down by 1 million heads to alleviate supply surplus pressure [3]. - Measures include halting secondary fattening and controlling the market behavior to prevent excessive inventory [3]. - The target for the average slaughter weight is set around 120 kg to avoid overstocking and subsequent supply excess [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the national average price of live pigs reached 6.98 yuan per jin, marking a new low for the year [5]. - Historical data indicates that if the breeding sow inventory decreases to 39 million heads, pig prices could rise by 11%-19% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, reflecting a price elasticity driven by supply improvements [7]. - The current valuation of the livestock sector is at a historical low, with the China Livestock Index at a price-to-book ratio of only 2.67, placing it in the 12th percentile historically [7]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Low cost is identified as the core competitive advantage for listed pig companies to navigate the pig cycle, with a focus on companies that excel in cost control or have clear cost-reduction pathways [1][8]. - The recovery of livestock inventory is expected to gradually boost demand for feed, while the approaching high temperatures will lead to a sales peak for aquatic feed [1][9]. - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Index, with over 60% of its components related to pig farming, and nearly 40% encompassing upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [10][14].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming sector is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, leading to significantly enhanced expectations for capacity optimization [1][4]. Group 1: Policy and Capacity Optimization - The core issue facing the pig industry is overcapacity, with the breeding sow inventory reaching 40.43 million heads as of June 2025, which is 103.7% of the normal holding level [4]. - Policies are being implemented to control production capacity, including a directive to reduce the breeding sow count by 1 million heads to a target of 39.5 million [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is monitoring the market, indicating a 0.8% decrease in the inventory of pigs over 5 months old in June, suggesting a potential reduction in pig output in July and August [6]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring and Competitive Advantages - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape, accelerating the exit of inefficient production capacities, which benefits quality listed pig companies [7]. - Cost competition is becoming crucial, with leading companies like Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group achieving production costs as low as 12-12.5 yuan per kilogram, providing them with a long-term competitive edge [7]. - Recent earnings forecasts from 14 listed companies indicate that 11 expect profit increases, with Muyuan Foods projecting a 1190% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of the year [7][8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The DCE pig futures surged by 1.67% on July 23, reaching a new high for the year, while the livestock farming ETF (516670) rose by 3.37% over the week, with a cumulative net inflow of 115 million yuan [1]. - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index's price-to-book ratio is approximately 2.53 times, still relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for investment [1][4].