重庆啤酒 20260105 摘要 嘉士伯中国 2025 年积极推新，春节期间推出嘉士伯启顺年蛇年新春包 装，3-6 月推出欧冠利物浦球队夺冠纪念包装罐，二三季度推出乌苏蜜 酿等一升罐装产品，并探索能量饮料和碳酸饮料等啤酒以外的赛道。 公司延续大城市计划，深耕市场份额和优化产品结构，加大非现饮渠道 投入，2025 年非现饮渠道占整体销量比例约为 56%-57%，与往年相 比变化不大。 2025 年前三季度，高档产品销量增长，嘉士伯和风花雪月品牌保持双 位数增长，乌苏和 1,664 罐装产品表现良好，乐堡实现增长，但部分本 地品牌在强势区域出现波动。 公司灌装化率持续提升，从 23 年的 18%-19%提升至 25 年底的 29% 左右，未来将继续提升至行业平均水平 35%-40%。 公司在新疆市场通过优化乌苏品牌结构实现增长，重庆和云南地区受外 部环境影响有所减弱，云南地区风花雪月品牌传统啤酒和低醇啤酒均取 得不错增长，低醇啤酒已扩展至东部沿海地区和电商渠道。 Q&A 请介绍一下 2025 年第四季度及全年的总体情况。 2025 年全年有几个主要趋势。首先，现饮渠道表现疲软，各啤酒公司积极发 展非现饮渠道。重啤 ...

Core Insights - Carlsberg China and JD Supermarket have announced a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing collaboration in brand and supply chain synergy, product exclusivity and innovation, channel co-construction, and comprehensive marketing over the next three years [1][3] Group 1: Partnership Overview - The partnership leverages the complementary resource advantages of both companies, leading to continuous growth in sales [3] - Carlsberg Group is one of the top three global beer companies, established in 1847, with over 180 brands sold worldwide [1] Group 2: Collaboration Areas - **Supply Chain**: The companies will gradually implement a direct supply model to optimize resource alignment and enhance decision-making efficiency [3] - **Product Innovation**: JD Supermarket will customize exclusive products from Carlsberg, including the upcoming launch of 1664 South France Blood Orange Sea Salt White Beer [3] - **Marketing Strategies**: JD Supermarket will utilize its user operations and marketing resources to reach a broader consumer base through various promotional activities [4] Group 3: Channel Development - JD Supermarket will integrate its online platforms, offline stores, and delivery services to provide consumers with a convenient beer purchasing experience [4] - The collaboration aims to meet consumer demands for high-quality, personalized, and convenient drinking experiences, promoting high-quality development in the beer industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery maintains stable performance in a complex market environment, with sales and revenue remaining largely flat compared to the previous year, while net profit shows a slight decline [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Brewery achieved a sales volume of 2.6681 million kiloliters and revenue of 13.059 billion yuan, which is roughly the same as the previous year [1] - The net profit for the same period was 1.241 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.83% [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company continues to optimize its product structure and accelerate the launch of new products, including large-capacity beers and innovative flavors [1] - New products include "Wusu Craft Big Red Robe Beer" 1L, "Mountain City Longjing Green Tea Craft" 1L, and "Dali Craft" 1L, as well as "Fenghua Xueyue Green Grape Low-Alcohol Beer" [1][2] Group 3: Market Expansion Initiatives - Chongqing Brewery is expanding into the beverage category with new products like "Tianshan Fresh Fruit Orchard" apple and white peach flavored sodas, aiming to revitalize the brand and explore new market opportunities [2] - The company engages in sports marketing, becoming the official strategic partner of the 2025 Chongqing Super League and collaborating with the Guangdong Super League [2] - In the dining scene, "Wusu Beer" is deepening consumer recognition through partnerships with "Wusu Barbecue" and "KFC Late Night Sets," with new themed stores opening in popular areas [2] Group 4: Awards and Recognition - At the 2025 China International Beer Challenge, Chongqing Brewery had 15 products awarded, making it the company with the most awards for five consecutive years, with "Lao Bao Pure Draft" winning the highest award [3] - The company received an "AA" rating in the 2025 MSCI ESG ratings, maintaining a leading position in the industry for sustainable development [3]

Core Viewpoint - Carlsberg's commitment to Chongqing is being questioned as the company shifts its strategic focus to Foshan, undermining its promises made to the local market [5][10][22]. Group 1: Strategic Commitment - Carlsberg's executive vice president stated that Chongqing is the company's home in China, yet the president of Carlsberg China emphasized Foshan as a key base, indicating a conflicting strategy [5][10]. - Carlsberg made five commitments to Chongqing when acquiring Chongqing Brewery, including establishing a management headquarters and an Asian R&D center in the city, which have not been fulfilled [10][11]. - The company has invested significantly in Foshan, including a new brewery with an annual capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, surpassing Chongqing's production capacity [11][13]. Group 2: Brand Management - The once-popular "Mountain City Beer" brand, which had a market share of 95% and a brand value exceeding 6 billion, is now marginalized under Carlsberg's management [16][17]. - After Carlsberg's acquisition, the focus shifted to promoting international brands, leading to a drastic decline in Mountain City Beer’s sales, which fell to less than 100,000 kiloliters, representing less than 3% of the market [18][20]. - Marketing efforts for Mountain City Beer have ceased, with the brand missing major local events and facing restrictions in sales channels [19][21]. Group 3: Future Commitments - Carlsberg's recent promises to leverage AI for the development of Chongqing's agricultural sector are met with skepticism due to the company's history of unfulfilled commitments [22][24]. - The changing market dynamics and rising national brands challenge Carlsberg to respect local brands and their emotional connections with consumers [25][27]. - The company is urged to fulfill its original commitments to Chongqing and revive the Mountain City Beer brand to regain consumer trust [28].

Core Insights - The recent surge in travel demand to Luzhou during the National Day holiday is attributed to local events such as a large music festival and the inaugural home match of the "Chuan Super" football league, leading to increased hotel bookings and flight searches [1][2] - The rise in local events, including music festivals and football matches, is driving significant consumer spending in various sectors, particularly in food and beverage, with many brands sponsoring these events [2][3] Group 1: Event Impact - Luzhou is experiencing a notable increase in hotel bookings, with a doubling of high-star hotel reservations and over 60% growth in flight searches compared to the previous year [1] - The "Chuan Super" league has attracted significant attention, with local teams and sponsors like Langjiu and Luzhou Laojiao actively participating in marketing efforts [3][5] - The presence of multiple music festivals across non-first-tier cities, including Luzhou, is enhancing brand visibility for beverage companies, with sponsorship from well-known brands [1][2] Group 2: Economic Boost - Local governments are leveraging sports and cultural events to stimulate economic activity, with expectations of generating over 100 million yuan in local consumption during the events [2][9] - Various promotional activities, such as discounts and free gifts for ticket holders, are being implemented to encourage spending in restaurants, hotels, and other local businesses [9][10] - The "Chuan Super" league and associated events are seen as a means to enhance city branding and tourism, with cities like Suining aiming to position themselves as key players in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [11]

Core Insights - The second season of "King of Comedy: Stand-Up Season" (referred to as "喜单2") has successfully concluded, showcasing the power of comedy to resonate with audiences and elevate the voices of "small characters" [1][10] - The rise of stand-up comedy has created a blue ocean market, with "喜单2" leading the way in making previously overlooked stories widely recognized [4][14] Audience Engagement - "喜单2" has become a weekend ritual for many young people, similar in importance to traditional cultural practices [4] - The show has achieved an impressive average rating of 7.9 on Douban, outperforming similar programs [4][6] Market Performance - "喜单2" has dominated various online rankings, including being the top show in multiple categories for nine times, indicating its strong market presence [6][8] - The show has generated significant social media engagement, with over 61,000 posts on Xiaohongshu and 23.8 billion views on Weibo [8] Industry Growth - The stand-up comedy sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 135% increase in box office revenue and a 54% rise in performance frequency [11][16] - The program has expanded its collaboration with over 35 comedy clubs across more than 10 cities, enhancing its reach and influence [11][12] Brand Partnerships - "喜单2" has seen a doubling of advertising revenue compared to its first season, attracting a diverse range of brand sponsors [18][21] - The show has successfully integrated brand marketing with comedy content, creating a more engaging advertising experience [23][46] Social Impact - The program has provided a platform for underrepresented voices, allowing "small characters" to share their stories and experiences [47][51] - The show has fostered a deeper connection between audiences and societal issues, transforming comedy into a medium for social commentary [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is facing challenges, with major players like Chongqing Beer experiencing slight declines in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, particularly in high-end and mainstream products priced above 4 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the same period last year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased by 13.80% to approximately 2.91 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Chongqing Beer plans to invest 600 million yuan in its core factory in South China to enhance operational capabilities and optimize its capital structure [4][5]. - The new brewery in Foshan is expected to have an annual design capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, significantly improving supply and reducing logistics costs [7]. Market Competition - The South China market is highly competitive, with local brands and major players like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer vying for market share [8]. - Despite increasing local supply, Chongqing Beer’s revenue in South China fell by 1.47% to 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of the year [8]. Marketing and Branding - Chongqing Beer is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and targeted marketing campaigns, including partnerships with celebrities and themed events [9][11]. - The company has maintained a strong marketing investment, with total sales expenses of 1.33 billion yuan, including 641 million yuan for advertising and marketing [14]. Product Diversification - The company is exploring non-beer categories, having launched an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink, with plans for further product development [18][20]. - The product lineup includes high-end, mainstream, and economic products, with high-end and mainstream categories contributing over 97% of total revenue [16].

Core Insights - Chongqing Brewery reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan and net profit at 864 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.24% and 4.03% respectively [1][2] - The company is facing challenges in the current drinking channel and plans to accelerate its layout in non-beer categories to seek new growth points [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024: 8.839 billion yuan, down 0.24% from 8.861 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Net profit: 864 million yuan, a decrease of 4.03% from 901 million yuan year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 13.80% to 2.906 billion yuan compared to 2.554 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan into its core factory in Foshan, aiming to improve its capital structure and enhance operational capabilities [2][3] - The new brewery in Foshan, with a designed annual capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, is expected to significantly improve supply capabilities in the South China region [3] Market Dynamics - The South China market is crucial for Chongqing Brewery, contributing 2.479 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, down 1.47% year-on-year [3] - The brewery faces intense competition from major brands like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer in this region [3] Brand and Product Development - Chongqing Brewery is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and marketing campaigns for its various brands [4] - The company is exploring the beverage sector with new product launches, including an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink [4] Market Valuation - As of the report's release, Chongqing Brewery's market capitalization is approximately 26 billion yuan, only about 30% of its peak value [5]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses potential space for consumption growth despite challenges in the "old-for-new" policy, highlighting three supporting factors: a gradual recovery in restaurant growth, the release of birth subsidies starting in August, and the impact of consumer loan interest subsidies [1][7] - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% [7][8] - The report anticipates a rebound in consumption growth in the second half of the year, driven by restaurant recovery and subsidies [7] Fixed Income - The report covers the issuance of Kai Zhong Convertible Bonds (113698.SH) with a total issuance scale of 308 million yuan, aimed at funding a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [2][9] - The bond has a YTM of 2.19% and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price of 12.7 yuan per share [9][10] Industry Analysis Huari Precision (688059) - The company reported a revenue of 519 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 18.80% [3][11] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 157 million, 211 million, and 273 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a current dynamic PE of 38, 28, and 22 times respectively [11][12] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's Q2 2025 revenue reached 77.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13] - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 15 billion, 22.1 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 8, and 6 times [13] Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - The company aims for a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, with net profit forecasts of 35.03 billion, 36.72 billion, and 37.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5][14] - The report highlights a stable dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70% for the next five years [14][15] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24%, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [16][17] - The report notes a resilient performance from brands like Lebao and Wusu, despite a challenging market environment [16][17] Yihua Da (301029) - The company achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, driven by strong demand in the new energy and automotive sectors [18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 553 million, 665 million, and 791 million yuan, with a dynamic PE of 29, 24, and 20 times respectively [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]