Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is facing challenges, with major players like Chongqing Beer experiencing slight declines in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, particularly in high-end and mainstream products priced above 4 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the same period last year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased by 13.80% to approximately 2.91 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Chongqing Beer plans to invest 600 million yuan in its core factory in South China to enhance operational capabilities and optimize its capital structure [4][5]. - The new brewery in Foshan is expected to have an annual design capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, significantly improving supply and reducing logistics costs [7]. Market Competition - The South China market is highly competitive, with local brands and major players like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer vying for market share [8]. - Despite increasing local supply, Chongqing Beer’s revenue in South China fell by 1.47% to 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of the year [8]. Marketing and Branding - Chongqing Beer is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and targeted marketing campaigns, including partnerships with celebrities and themed events [9][11]. - The company has maintained a strong marketing investment, with total sales expenses of 1.33 billion yuan, including 641 million yuan for advertising and marketing [14]. Product Diversification - The company is exploring non-beer categories, having launched an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink, with plans for further product development [18][20]. - The product lineup includes high-end, mainstream, and economic products, with high-end and mainstream categories contributing over 97% of total revenue [16].

Core Insights - Chongqing Brewery reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan and net profit at 864 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.24% and 4.03% respectively [1][2] - The company is facing challenges in the current drinking channel and plans to accelerate its layout in non-beer categories to seek new growth points [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024: 8.839 billion yuan, down 0.24% from 8.861 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Net profit: 864 million yuan, a decrease of 4.03% from 901 million yuan year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 13.80% to 2.906 billion yuan compared to 2.554 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan into its core factory in Foshan, aiming to improve its capital structure and enhance operational capabilities [2][3] - The new brewery in Foshan, with a designed annual capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, is expected to significantly improve supply capabilities in the South China region [3] Market Dynamics - The South China market is crucial for Chongqing Brewery, contributing 2.479 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, down 1.47% year-on-year [3] - The brewery faces intense competition from major brands like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer in this region [3] Brand and Product Development - Chongqing Brewery is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and marketing campaigns for its various brands [4] - The company is exploring the beverage sector with new product launches, including an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink [4] Market Valuation - As of the report's release, Chongqing Brewery's market capitalization is approximately 26 billion yuan, only about 30% of its peak value [5]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses potential space for consumption growth despite challenges in the "old-for-new" policy, highlighting three supporting factors: a gradual recovery in restaurant growth, the release of birth subsidies starting in August, and the impact of consumer loan interest subsidies [1][7] - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% [7][8] - The report anticipates a rebound in consumption growth in the second half of the year, driven by restaurant recovery and subsidies [7] Fixed Income - The report covers the issuance of Kai Zhong Convertible Bonds (113698.SH) with a total issuance scale of 308 million yuan, aimed at funding a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [2][9] - The bond has a YTM of 2.19% and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price of 12.7 yuan per share [9][10] Industry Analysis Huari Precision (688059) - The company reported a revenue of 519 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 18.80% [3][11] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 157 million, 211 million, and 273 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a current dynamic PE of 38, 28, and 22 times respectively [11][12] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's Q2 2025 revenue reached 77.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13] - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 15 billion, 22.1 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 8, and 6 times [13] Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - The company aims for a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, with net profit forecasts of 35.03 billion, 36.72 billion, and 37.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5][14] - The report highlights a stable dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70% for the next five years [14][15] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24%, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [16][17] - The report notes a resilient performance from brands like Lebao and Wusu, despite a challenging market environment [16][17] Yihua Da (301029) - The company achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, driven by strong demand in the new energy and automotive sectors [18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 553 million, 665 million, and 791 million yuan, with a dynamic PE of 29, 24, and 20 times respectively [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Chongqing Beer Industry Overview - The beer industry in China is experiencing stagnant sales in the first half of 2025, with Carlsberg maintaining stable performance in traditional stronghold regions but pausing expansion into new areas due to weak consumer demand [2][4] - The decline in raw material and packaging costs positively impacts gross margins, but overall production and sales volume remain critical variables to monitor [2][8] Company Performance - The company has no plans for new production capacity expansion in 2025, with a significant reduction in capital expenditures expected. Shareholder returns will primarily come from cash dividends, which have reached a high level [3][31] - The company’s overall performance in 2025 has been affected by external factors, particularly the impact on the restaurant industry, which is a key consumption scenario for beer [4] Brand Performance - The Lebao brand continues to grow and has become the largest brand, while the Wusu brand faces challenges but is actively innovating and upgrading its product structure [2][9][16] - Wusu beer's annual sales are approximately 800,000 tons, with over 60% sold in its home region, but it faces pricing pressure in external markets [2][13][12] - The 1,664 brand has remained stable in Q1 2025 but is expected to face pressure in the second quarter due to the lack of recovery in entertainment channels [15] Sales Channels - The revenue share from on-premise channels has decreased to below 44%, while off-premise channels now account for over 56%. New retail models are causing structural changes in the market [19] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as Yima Delivery and Jiuxiaoer, with positive feedback on new products launched in one-liter cans [19][21] Product Innovations - The company has introduced a one-liter canned craft beer product and is diversifying into non-beer categories, testing products like Dali Fat Child Soda and Tianshan Fresh Fruit Orchard Orange Soda [21][22] - The beverage business is part of a broader strategy initiated by Carlsberg Group, with local teams making independent decisions on product development [23][24] Financial Outlook - The company expects gross margin performance to benefit from procurement cost savings, but overall production and sales volume will be key determinants [8] - Sales expenses are balanced with overall sales and structure, and there are no plans for significant capital expenditures aimed solely at increasing production capacity in 2025 [30] Strategic Direction - The company is open to mergers and acquisitions within the beer industry or related sectors, such as the beverage business, but will not venture into unrelated industries [32]

Core Viewpoint - The significant price reductions in alcoholic beverages during the 618 shopping festival are attributed to increased competition among e-commerce platforms and substantial subsidy investments in the liquor category [3][4]. Group 1: Price Reductions - Major liquor brands, including Moutai and Jian Nan Chun, have seen their prices drop significantly, with Moutai available for around 1900 yuan and Jian Nan Chun for 369 yuan [1][3]. - Beer prices have also decreased, with brands like Snow Beer and Budweiser priced under 4 yuan [2]. Group 2: E-commerce Competition - The competition among leading e-commerce platforms has intensified, leading to increased subsidies for liquor products, with some brands offering official subsidies of up to 10% [3][4]. - The 618 shopping festival has expanded its subsidy coverage to the liquor sector, further driving down online prices [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees a decline in liquor consumption, contributing to lower market prices [3]. - Beer consumption has shifted from on-premise channels like restaurants to off-premise channels, prompting beer companies to focus on flash sales and delivery services [5][6]. - Non-on-premise beer is generally cheaper, and with additional subsidies during the 618 festival, prices are expected to decrease further [6][7].

Industry Overview - The beer industry in 2024 is experiencing a significant divergence, with some companies thriving while others struggle, reflecting a structural adjustment within the market [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue, making beer the only category in the food and beverage sector to see a revenue drop [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top six companies (CR6) holding a market share of 92.6% [3] - Beer production has been declining since its peak in 2013, leading to a contraction in the overall consumption market, which directly impacts the performance of leading companies [3] Financial Performance - Major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery reported revenue declines of 8.89%, 0.76%, and 5.3% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Net profits for Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer also fell by 14.8%, 8.03%, and 17.05% respectively, attributed to weak consumer demand and challenges in traditional sales channels [4][5] Growth Segmentation - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are exceptions, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit, with Yanjing's revenue increasing by 3.20% and net profit by 54.87% [5] - Yanjing U8 has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end market, achieving a 31.40% increase in sales volume [6] Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus towards operational efficiency and market segmentation to find sustainable profit growth in a saturated market [8][9] - Budweiser APAC is reallocating resources from super-premium products to the core price segment of 8-10 yuan, which is performing better in the current consumption environment [7][8] Cost Management - Several companies, including Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer, have reduced their sales costs by 8.93% and 2.93% respectively, due to lower barley prices and improved cost control measures [9][10] - Qingdao Beer managed to achieve a slight net profit increase despite revenue decline by reducing various operational costs [10][12] Marketing Innovations - Companies are adopting innovative marketing strategies to engage younger consumers, such as emotional and scenario-based marketing [13][14] - Budweiser APAC is focusing on expanding non-drinking channels and targeting new consumption scenarios, while China Resources Beer has seen over 30% growth in online business [15][16]

以下文章来源于深氪新消费 ，作者朱末 深氪新消费 . 深氪新消费成立于2016年，聚焦新经济，关注新消费、新零售等领域的商业进化。 作者：朱末 来源：深氪新消费（ID：xinshangye2016） 围绕山城啤酒的包销纠纷事件，有了新进展。 日前，重庆啤酒（600132.SH）公告了重庆市第五中级人民法院对公司与重庆嘉威啤酒有限公 司（以下简称"重庆嘉威"）合同纠纷案的一审判决结果，法院判决重庆啤酒赔偿重庆嘉威损失 3.5亿元。 针对这个判决，3月14日，重庆啤酒的控股股东嘉士伯发表了一篇5000字长文，直言一审判 决"显失公正"，且详细披露了与重庆嘉威之间合作的来龙去脉，对重庆嘉威此前提出的"雪 藏"山城品牌的说法进行否认。 很快，重庆嘉威针对嘉士伯的多个观点进行反驳。 嘉威表示，虽然嘉士伯、重啤的声明言辞激烈，但与历史、与事实、与双方合作协议严重不 符，并从合作关系定性、"山城"品牌使用期限、"山城"啤酒品牌被边缘化等八个方面针对嘉士 伯中国此前声明的关键点一一做出有力的回击。 回顾两方的声明，"山城"啤酒是诉讼源头。早年间，重庆啤酒通过注入"山城"商标使用权，获 得重庆嘉威33%股份，双方还签订了为期2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing legal battle between Chongqing Beer and its partner Chongqing Jiawei is not merely a commercial dispute but also a significant issue regarding the survival of a national brand, "Shancheng" beer [2][4]. Group 1: Legal Dispute - The lawsuit between Chongqing Jiawei and Chongqing Beer, stemming from a contract dispute, has been ongoing for over a year and has recently reached a first-instance verdict [7][10]. - Chongqing Jiawei claims that since 2011, Chongqing Beer has breached their 20-year exclusive sales agreement, resulting in losses amounting to 632 million yuan [11][12]. - The court ruled that Chongqing Beer must pay 353 million yuan to Chongqing Jiawei, while Chongqing Beer plans to appeal this decision, citing significant errors in the judgment [13]. Group 2: Historical Context - "Shancheng" beer, a well-known brand with over 60 years of history, has seen its production and sales decline from over 100,000 tons in 2013 to less than 10,000 tons recently, according to Chongqing Jiawei [17][19]. - Chongqing Beer argues that Chongqing Jiawei has benefited excessively from the sales agreement, with profits soaring from 20 million yuan in 2008 to over 2 billion yuan in the past 15 years [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is highly competitive, and Chongqing Beer must address historical issues related to "Shancheng" beer while facing fierce competition [5]. - In 2023, "Shancheng" beer's sales exceeded 160,000 tons, marking a 17% increase compared to 2019, despite an overall market decline of 5.6% [22]. - The overall revenue for Chongqing Beer is projected to decline by 1.15% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 6.84% [31]. Group 4: Corporate Strategy - Carlsberg, as the parent company of Chongqing Beer, has historically been cautious in the Chinese market but is now focusing all resources on Chongqing Beer as its sole operational platform in China [24][29]. - The company has attempted to revitalize its brand presence through aggressive marketing strategies, including celebrity endorsements and innovative market approaches, but has not achieved sustained high growth [30].