以下文章来源于深氪新消费 ，作者郑栾 深氪新消费 . 来源： 深氪新消费 嘉士伯对重庆的 "两副面孔"正在被拆穿。 ---------------------------------- 9 月底，嘉士伯集团执行副总裁乔若昂在公开场合宣称，" 重庆是嘉士伯在中国的家 。不仅是嘉士 伯中国业务的中心，更是我们长期深耕中国的坚实支点。" 有意思的是，嘉士伯中国总裁李志刚在去年佛山新基地的投产仪式上同样表示： "我们以佛山为支 点，再次彰显对中国市场的长期承诺。" 嘉士伯一边信誓旦旦 "要把重庆当成家"，一边却将研发中心落户佛山、总部迁至广州，山城啤酒 销量暴跌 90% 。 这不是单纯的战略调整，而是商业层面的背弃。 当外资巨头用 "情感牌"拿下民族品牌后，是共同发展，还是"鸠占鹊巢"？重庆曾经的民族品牌天 府可乐就遭遇雪藏。眼下，山城啤酒也正面临嘉士伯的暗中架空。 深氪新消费成立于2016年，聚焦新经济，关注新消费、新零售等领域的商业进化。 作者： 郑栾 面对重庆市场和舆论，嘉士伯始终在虚与委蛇。 01 质疑一： 战略重心南移 对重庆五大承诺全部落空 何以为家？ 高管发言可以敷衍了事，但财务数据和产能不会说谎。 当 ...

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 最近不少泸州人发现，今年国庆进出泸州的动车、机票紧俏得不寻常。 "候补几天都抢不到回家的票，看来里约热内泸终于火了？"有泸州网友在小红书上发帖。 今年国庆中秋长假期间，泸州将迎来本地少有的大型音乐节，此外"川超"比赛泸州队首场主场赛事也将 开打。多家OTA平台的节前数据显示，泸州今年双节高星酒店预订量翻番，节前一周的机票搜索量同比 增长超过60%，热度远超同体量层级城市。 这也同样吸引了正在开展旺季营销的酒企。21世纪经济报道记者不完全梳理，全国共有近20场地方城市 联赛将在长假前夕到长假期间开打，吸引了包括五粮液、郎酒、泸州老窖、舍得沱牌、重庆啤酒、四特 酒、黄河啤酒等各地酒企支持。 成都近年赛事经济的活跃，给"川超"奠定了人气基础。 9月20日傍晚，2万多名观众冒雨登上了成都双流体育中心的看台，等待2025-2026四川省城市足球联赛 揭幕战吹响。 "双流体育中心很久没这么热闹了，外面球迷嘉年华摆摊的老板高兴惨了。"家住成都双流的张慧超对21 世纪经济报道记者说。首场"川超"是成都队主场对阵遂宁队。张慧超老家在遂宁射洪，定居成都多年。 为了看老家、新家球队对阵，他早就抢好了门票。 ...

Core Insights - The second season of "King of Comedy: Stand-Up Season" (referred to as "喜单2") has successfully concluded, showcasing the power of comedy to resonate with audiences and elevate the voices of "small characters" [1][10] - The rise of stand-up comedy has created a blue ocean market, with "喜单2" leading the way in making previously overlooked stories widely recognized [4][14] Audience Engagement - "喜单2" has become a weekend ritual for many young people, similar in importance to traditional cultural practices [4] - The show has achieved an impressive average rating of 7.9 on Douban, outperforming similar programs [4][6] Market Performance - "喜单2" has dominated various online rankings, including being the top show in multiple categories for nine times, indicating its strong market presence [6][8] - The show has generated significant social media engagement, with over 61,000 posts on Xiaohongshu and 23.8 billion views on Weibo [8] Industry Growth - The stand-up comedy sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 135% increase in box office revenue and a 54% rise in performance frequency [11][16] - The program has expanded its collaboration with over 35 comedy clubs across more than 10 cities, enhancing its reach and influence [11][12] Brand Partnerships - "喜单2" has seen a doubling of advertising revenue compared to its first season, attracting a diverse range of brand sponsors [18][21] - The show has successfully integrated brand marketing with comedy content, creating a more engaging advertising experience [23][46] Social Impact - The program has provided a platform for underrepresented voices, allowing "small characters" to share their stories and experiences [47][51] - The show has fostered a deeper connection between audiences and societal issues, transforming comedy into a medium for social commentary [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is facing challenges, with major players like Chongqing Beer experiencing slight declines in revenue and profit in the first half of the year, particularly in high-end and mainstream products priced above 4 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the same period last year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased by 13.80% to approximately 2.91 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Chongqing Beer plans to invest 600 million yuan in its core factory in South China to enhance operational capabilities and optimize its capital structure [4][5]. - The new brewery in Foshan is expected to have an annual design capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, significantly improving supply and reducing logistics costs [7]. Market Competition - The South China market is highly competitive, with local brands and major players like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer vying for market share [8]. - Despite increasing local supply, Chongqing Beer’s revenue in South China fell by 1.47% to 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of the year [8]. Marketing and Branding - Chongqing Beer is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and targeted marketing campaigns, including partnerships with celebrities and themed events [9][11]. - The company has maintained a strong marketing investment, with total sales expenses of 1.33 billion yuan, including 641 million yuan for advertising and marketing [14]. Product Diversification - The company is exploring non-beer categories, having launched an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink, with plans for further product development [18][20]. - The product lineup includes high-end, mainstream, and economic products, with high-end and mainstream categories contributing over 97% of total revenue [16].

Core Insights - Chongqing Brewery reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan and net profit at 864 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.24% and 4.03% respectively [1][2] - The company is facing challenges in the current drinking channel and plans to accelerate its layout in non-beer categories to seek new growth points [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024: 8.839 billion yuan, down 0.24% from 8.861 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Net profit: 864 million yuan, a decrease of 4.03% from 901 million yuan year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 13.80% to 2.906 billion yuan compared to 2.554 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan into its core factory in Foshan, aiming to improve its capital structure and enhance operational capabilities [2][3] - The new brewery in Foshan, with a designed annual capacity of 500,000 kiloliters, is expected to significantly improve supply capabilities in the South China region [3] Market Dynamics - The South China market is crucial for Chongqing Brewery, contributing 2.479 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024, down 1.47% year-on-year [3] - The brewery faces intense competition from major brands like Qingdao, Budweiser, and Snow Beer in this region [3] Brand and Product Development - Chongqing Brewery is actively enhancing its brand presence through high-profile endorsements and marketing campaigns for its various brands [4] - The company is exploring the beverage sector with new product launches, including an orange-flavored soda and an energy drink [4] Market Valuation - As of the report's release, Chongqing Brewery's market capitalization is approximately 26 billion yuan, only about 30% of its peak value [5]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses potential space for consumption growth despite challenges in the "old-for-new" policy, highlighting three supporting factors: a gradual recovery in restaurant growth, the release of birth subsidies starting in August, and the impact of consumer loan interest subsidies [1][7] - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales growth slowing to 3.7% [7][8] - The report anticipates a rebound in consumption growth in the second half of the year, driven by restaurant recovery and subsidies [7] Fixed Income - The report covers the issuance of Kai Zhong Convertible Bonds (113698.SH) with a total issuance scale of 308 million yuan, aimed at funding a new smart home appliance manufacturing base [2][9] - The bond has a YTM of 2.19% and a maturity of 6 years, with a conversion price of 12.7 yuan per share [9][10] Industry Analysis Huari Precision (688059) - The company reported a revenue of 519 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 18.80% [3][11] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 157 million, 211 million, and 273 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a current dynamic PE of 38, 28, and 22 times respectively [11][12] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's Q2 2025 revenue reached 77.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13] - The company has revised its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 15 billion, 22.1 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 8, and 6 times [13] Changjiang Electric Power (600900) - The company aims for a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, with net profit forecasts of 35.03 billion, 36.72 billion, and 37.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5][14] - The report highlights a stable dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70% for the next five years [14][15] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24%, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [16][17] - The report notes a resilient performance from brands like Lebao and Wusu, despite a challenging market environment [16][17] Yihua Da (301029) - The company achieved H1 2025 revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, driven by strong demand in the new energy and automotive sectors [18] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 553 million, 665 million, and 791 million yuan, with a dynamic PE of 29, 24, and 20 times respectively [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Chongqing Beer Industry Overview - The beer industry in China is experiencing stagnant sales in the first half of 2025, with Carlsberg maintaining stable performance in traditional stronghold regions but pausing expansion into new areas due to weak consumer demand [2][4] - The decline in raw material and packaging costs positively impacts gross margins, but overall production and sales volume remain critical variables to monitor [2][8] Company Performance - The company has no plans for new production capacity expansion in 2025, with a significant reduction in capital expenditures expected. Shareholder returns will primarily come from cash dividends, which have reached a high level [3][31] - The company’s overall performance in 2025 has been affected by external factors, particularly the impact on the restaurant industry, which is a key consumption scenario for beer [4] Brand Performance - The Lebao brand continues to grow and has become the largest brand, while the Wusu brand faces challenges but is actively innovating and upgrading its product structure [2][9][16] - Wusu beer's annual sales are approximately 800,000 tons, with over 60% sold in its home region, but it faces pricing pressure in external markets [2][13][12] - The 1,664 brand has remained stable in Q1 2025 but is expected to face pressure in the second quarter due to the lack of recovery in entertainment channels [15] Sales Channels - The revenue share from on-premise channels has decreased to below 44%, while off-premise channels now account for over 56%. New retail models are causing structural changes in the market [19] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as Yima Delivery and Jiuxiaoer, with positive feedback on new products launched in one-liter cans [19][21] Product Innovations - The company has introduced a one-liter canned craft beer product and is diversifying into non-beer categories, testing products like Dali Fat Child Soda and Tianshan Fresh Fruit Orchard Orange Soda [21][22] - The beverage business is part of a broader strategy initiated by Carlsberg Group, with local teams making independent decisions on product development [23][24] Financial Outlook - The company expects gross margin performance to benefit from procurement cost savings, but overall production and sales volume will be key determinants [8] - Sales expenses are balanced with overall sales and structure, and there are no plans for significant capital expenditures aimed solely at increasing production capacity in 2025 [30] Strategic Direction - The company is open to mergers and acquisitions within the beer industry or related sectors, such as the beverage business, but will not venture into unrelated industries [32]

Core Viewpoint - The significant price reductions in alcoholic beverages during the 618 shopping festival are attributed to increased competition among e-commerce platforms and substantial subsidy investments in the liquor category [3][4]. Group 1: Price Reductions - Major liquor brands, including Moutai and Jian Nan Chun, have seen their prices drop significantly, with Moutai available for around 1900 yuan and Jian Nan Chun for 369 yuan [1][3]. - Beer prices have also decreased, with brands like Snow Beer and Budweiser priced under 4 yuan [2]. Group 2: E-commerce Competition - The competition among leading e-commerce platforms has intensified, leading to increased subsidies for liquor products, with some brands offering official subsidies of up to 10% [3][4]. - The 618 shopping festival has expanded its subsidy coverage to the liquor sector, further driving down online prices [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees a decline in liquor consumption, contributing to lower market prices [3]. - Beer consumption has shifted from on-premise channels like restaurants to off-premise channels, prompting beer companies to focus on flash sales and delivery services [5][6]. - Non-on-premise beer is generally cheaper, and with additional subsidies during the 618 festival, prices are expected to decrease further [6][7].

Industry Overview - The beer industry in 2024 is experiencing a significant divergence, with some companies thriving while others struggle, reflecting a structural adjustment within the market [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue, making beer the only category in the food and beverage sector to see a revenue drop [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with the top six companies (CR6) holding a market share of 92.6% [3] - Beer production has been declining since its peak in 2013, leading to a contraction in the overall consumption market, which directly impacts the performance of leading companies [3] Financial Performance - Major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery reported revenue declines of 8.89%, 0.76%, and 5.3% respectively in 2024 [4][5] - Net profits for Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer also fell by 14.8%, 8.03%, and 17.05% respectively, attributed to weak consumer demand and challenges in traditional sales channels [4][5] Growth Segmentation - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are exceptions, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit, with Yanjing's revenue increasing by 3.20% and net profit by 54.87% [5] - Yanjing U8 has successfully penetrated the mid-to-high-end market, achieving a 31.40% increase in sales volume [6] Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus towards operational efficiency and market segmentation to find sustainable profit growth in a saturated market [8][9] - Budweiser APAC is reallocating resources from super-premium products to the core price segment of 8-10 yuan, which is performing better in the current consumption environment [7][8] Cost Management - Several companies, including Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer, have reduced their sales costs by 8.93% and 2.93% respectively, due to lower barley prices and improved cost control measures [9][10] - Qingdao Beer managed to achieve a slight net profit increase despite revenue decline by reducing various operational costs [10][12] Marketing Innovations - Companies are adopting innovative marketing strategies to engage younger consumers, such as emotional and scenario-based marketing [13][14] - Budweiser APAC is focusing on expanding non-drinking channels and targeting new consumption scenarios, while China Resources Beer has seen over 30% growth in online business [15][16]