1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to active replenishment by non-aluminum downstream last week, liquid caustic soda plant inventories were seasonally reduced, but inventory pressure remains high. Shandong chlor-alkali profits decreased month-on-month and entered a state of theoretical loss. Currently, there are still few maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants, and there is no signal of production reduction in the industry, so the high operating rate is expected to continue in the short term. In February, some alumina enterprises will undergo maintenance due to factors such as environmental protection and flexible production, and the consumption of the alumina industry is expected to decline marginally. As the Spring Festival approaches, some non-aluminum downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop work, leading to a seasonal decline in non-aluminum demand for caustic soda. Today, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong turned negative, deepening the theoretical loss of Shandong chlor-alkali, and strengthening the cost support for caustic soda. With the game between weak supply and demand and cost support, caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000, and the daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2120 - 2200 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the trading volume was 260,268 lots, a decrease of 187,719 lots; the open interest was 112,328 lots, a decrease of 20,346 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was -17,061 lots, a decrease of 9 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, and the converted 100% caustic soda price was 1844 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan. The price in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month-on-month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month-on-month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month-on-month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 1954 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of plants in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the average operating rate of caustic soda in the whole country changed little. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 471,400 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic caustic soda supply - demand situation is bearish, but due to the low chlor - alkali profit and strong price - holding intention of enterprises, the further downward space of caustic soda prices may be limited. Attention should be paid to the future changes in liquid chlorine prices. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1963 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 26; the main contract position is 132,674 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 21,432; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 17,052 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,384; the main contract trading volume is 447,987 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 138,115. The closing price of the January contract is 2,404 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 21; the closing price of the May contract is 2,163 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 34 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 588 yuan/ton in Shandong and 720 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with no month - on - month change. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1,838 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The basis is - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 26 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt is 237.5 yuan/ton in Shandong and 220 yuan/ton in the Northwest, with no month - on - month change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton in Shandong, with no month - on - month change, and 200 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the spot price of alumina is 2,555 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month - on - month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month - on - month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month - on - month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 rose 3.26% to close at 1,963 yuan/ton. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong was - 3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]

美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 【冠通期货研究报告】 烧碱日报：跟踪生产企业减产情况 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 1、周末，山东液碱市场价格继续下跌，部分订单执行一单一议，实单下调 10-20 不等，省外下游采购量及价格已经出台，价格较低，采购量也不大，对山 东支撑小，省内氧化铝采购价格在周末下调 15 至 600。 2、烧碱开工率 87.70%,(+1.00%);烧碱周度产量 86.30 万吨(+1.00)。需求 方面:主力下游氧化铝开工率 85.18%(-0.65%)，氧化铝周度产量 183.90 万吨 (-1.40)，氧化铝港口库存 16.80(+3.20);印染华东开工率 56.54%(-2.22%);粘胶 短纤开工率 88.43%(+0.00%);白卡纸开工率:74.37%(-6.30%);阔叶浆开工率 89.70%(-1.30%)。 4、国家统计局 1 月 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental support for caustic soda is limited. As the off - season approaches, there is an expectation of further weakening in demand, and alkali plant inventories are relatively high. In terms of valuation, the liquid chlorine price is neutral. Although chlor - alkali profits have declined, production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. In the medium to long term, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [1] - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The current supply - demand situation is weak. It is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, and speculative demand at low prices has been falling short of expectations. The overall price of alumina is under pressure, leading to a pessimistic outlook for caustic soda demand. Chlor - alkali profits are moderately low, but production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. [8] - Long - term trading expectations: The pressure of new production capacity in the medium to long term continues, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **32% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. Only in Shaanxi, Beiyuan's price dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. [11] - **50% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, most prices were stable, except for Lutai, which decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. [11] - **Flake caustic soda market price**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged. In the Southwest, Central China, and East China regions, prices dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with decreases of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.5% respectively. [12] - **Caustic soda grade/regional spread**: On December 12, 2025, all spreads remained unchanged compared to the previous day. [12] - **Caustic soda futures price/month spread**: On December 12, 2025, the 05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.18%), the 09 contract decreased by 16 yuan/ton (- 0.68%), and the 01 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.38%). The month - spreads also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Chlor - alkali profits have declined, and the overall market pricing is relatively pessimistic. [14] - Bearish information: Not provided in the document 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Observe the downstream demand, the off - season situation of non - aluminum industries, and the alkali - stocking rhythm of aluminum plants. [14] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital flow: This week, the caustic soda price continued to decline, reaching a new low for the year. However, there is no obvious upward driving force in both fundamentals and sentiment. [14] - **Reasons**: Caustic soda production remains at a high level, increasing supply pressure, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. [16] 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Shandong Jinling's 32% caustic soda (converted to 100% purity) is priced at 2156 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan over the 01 contract and 46 yuan/ton over the 03 contract. Alkali plant inventories are at a high level, and the fundamentals lack support. [17] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As the caustic soda price falls, overall chlor - alkali profits have declined. The liquid chlorine price is relatively neutral, at 100 yuan/ton in both Jiangsu and Shandong. [27] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the Southeast Asian CFR price is 430 US dollars/ton, remaining stable for now. There is an expectation of substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed. [39] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spot price**: The document shows the seasonal price trends of 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. [44] - **Caustic soda - 50% caustic soda spot price**: It presents the seasonal price trends of 50% caustic soda in different regions including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi. [52] - **Flake caustic soda spot price**: It shows the seasonal price trends of 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, and Northeast China. [55] - **Spot regional spread**: It includes spreads such as Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, and Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda. [61] - **Spot price converted to futures price**: It shows the seasonal trends of the converted prices of caustic soda in different regions and grades. [68] - **Caustic soda foreign - market price**: It includes prices such as the Northeast Asian FOB price, Southeast Asian CFR price, Indian caustic soda price, US Gulf of Mexico FOB price, and Western European liquid caustic soda price. [96] 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Caustic soda loss volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly caustic soda plant loss volumes. [103] - **Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [105] - **Flake caustic soda production and operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. [114] 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Alumina spot price**: It shows the average prices and costs of alumina in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, as well as the industry - wide average profit. [122] - **Alumina weekly operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trend of the national weekly operation rate of alumina. [124] - **Operation rates of related industries**: It includes the weekly operation load rates of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber in China. [126] - **Caustic soda import - export volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda in China, as well as the export structure by continent. [131] 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, as well as in different regions of China. [137] - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total inventory, factory inventory, and regional factory inventories of flake caustic soda. [149]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In September, China's economic data was gradually released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" state with key economic data missing, and Fed officials gradually signaled interest - rate cuts [4]. - Supply - demand: In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some plants are expected to enter maintenance, tightening market supply, and with the approaching demand procurement cycle, liquid caustic soda prices are expected to rise steadily. In Shandong, with the shipment of orders from other provinces and the decline in enterprise inventories, some enterprises may continue to raise prices. The low - concentration caustic soda market is expected to rise slightly, while the high - concentration caustic soda may be sold at lower prices [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, the spot price in Shandong has been relatively strong, but there is a certain expectation of production cuts in the alumina industry. Coupled with the improvement of enterprise profits due to the recovery of liquid chlorine prices, the caustic soda 2601 contract will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. - Strategy advice: For the caustic soda 2601 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2600 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2300 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, the price difference of 32% caustic soda between Shandong and Jiangsu, and Shandong and Zhejiang were presented. Also, data on the basis, the market prices of flake caustic soda (99%) in Shandong and the northwest, the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and raw salt in Shandong, and the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong were shown [9][12]. - **Futures market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, alumina, PVC, and soda ash, the number of caustic soda warehouse receipts were presented [15]. - **Weekly market review (20251010 - 20251016)**: The prices, price changes, and price change rates of products such as raw salt, liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide were provided. For example, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased from 815 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.84%, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 150% [18]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side - Output and operating rate**: From 20251010 - 1016, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous period. Loads in the northwest, north, east, south, and northeast regions all declined [20]. - **Supply side - Enterprise maintenance situation**: Enterprises in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, and Liaoning have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and durations [22]. - **Downstream demand**: In the alumina industry, due to high profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry and shrinking profits in the alumina industry, electrolytic aluminum plants have made small - scale purchases for replenishment, but the transaction price is still declining. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased by 1.02% week - on - week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of 20251016, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period and an increase of 13.83% compared to the same period last year. The inventory situation varied in different regions [29]. - **Liquid chlorine**: As of October 16, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.43%. The liquid chlorine market is expected to be stable with a downward trend in the near future. As of October 17, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, and it is expected to rise to 78.47% this week [33]. - **Chlor - alkali cost - profit**: From 20251010 - 20251016, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 394 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.54% [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continues to trade on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the latest US non - farm payroll data. During the National Day holiday, the market is shipping based on previous orders, and enterprises may face some pressure. The price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region is expected to remain stable, while in the Shandong market, due to the approaching holiday, there is no obvious positive news on the demand side, and the inventory of local alkali plants is likely to increase, with the possibility of price cuts in the near future. The spot trend in Shandong is weak, demand is lower than expected, and the futures price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize after the holiday. The recommended trading strategy is to set the upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2601 contract at 2700 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 2400 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The report presents multiple charts showing the price trends of caustic soda in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang), the price differences between different types of caustic soda (32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda), and the price relationships between caustic soda and related products (such as raw salt, liquid chlorine). The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel. In the week from 20250919 - 20250925, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.36% to 1270 yuan/ton, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest remained at 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong remained at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 1.86% to 2950 yuan/ton [10][13][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the price trends of caustic soda futures and its comparison with other related futures (soda ash, alumina, PVC), as well as the relationship between the caustic soda futures price and the number of warehouse receipts. The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: In the week of 20250919 - 0925, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The load in the Northwest decreased due to new device maintenance, while the load in North and East China increased after device maintenance. It is estimated that the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will be around 85.9%, and the weekly output will be around 845,700 tons. The report also lists the maintenance plans of multiple enterprises [22][23]. - **Downstream Demand**: For alumina, the current spot supply in northern China is relatively loose, while the market - available spot in Henan and Southwest China is still tight. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and some enterprises continue to purchase imported ore. The production is relatively stable, but the narrowing profit due to falling prices makes enterprises more willing to negotiate lower prices for raw materials. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to adjust weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 391,200 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 26.26%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, North, Central, and East China increased, while those in the Northeast, South, and Southwest decreased. In the North China region, the demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and the inventory increased; the high - concentration caustic soda inventory decreased. In Tianjin and Hebei, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the South China region, the inventory decreased due to reduced supply. In the Central China region, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the East China region, the inventory increased slightly due to increased supply. In the Northwest region, the inventory in Gansu and Ningxia decreased due to maintenance, while the inventory in Shaanxi increased due to poor sales. In the Southwest region, the inventory decreased due to active pre - holiday stocking [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 32.26% to - 150 yuan/ton. The price increase was affected by the reduced supply in Jiangsu, and then remained stable. The supply and demand in Shandong did not change significantly, and downstream procurement was stable. In Hebei and the Northeast, the load of chlor - alkali enterprises increased, and downstream pre - holiday stocking was active, which supported the price of liquid chlorine. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate this week will increase to 82.17% due to the increased operation of some enterprises. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.34%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the caustic soda price decreased significantly, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, and the chlor - alkali profit decreased [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and inventory - building demand from alumina, especially the expected 3.6 million - ton alumina capacity to be put into production in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The export support is still strong, and the downstream peak - season restocking is likely to drive the spot price upwards. Although the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC may limit the overall industry profit expansion, the overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude [5] - **PVC**: In 2025, the high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit the export to India, and the market will continue to short PVC profits. The overall trend is bearish [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Caustic Soda**: The supply side shows that the average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The demand side is strong, with alumina having high production willingness and strong demand for caustic soda. The export support is also strong. The overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude, with specific strategies including holding long positions in contracts 10 and 11, conducting positive spreads in 10 - 1 and 11 - 1, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [5] - **PVC**: The high - production situation is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit exports. The overall trend is bearish, with strategies including shorting on rallies, not participating in inter - period spreads, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,562 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 changes little, and the 10 - 1 month spread is strong. The export market still has support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the continuous expansion of the flake caustic - liquid caustic spread. The 50% - 32% caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][22] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory, with a strong structure. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 18.61%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. The actual capacity expansion of caustic soda in 2025 will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side of caustic soda changes greatly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine leads to a good overall profit situation [39][40][42] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina shows an increase in production, inventory, and stable profits. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production can drive a new round of demand expansion. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The finished paper industry has a low year - on - year start - up rate. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries all have stable starts [79][86][96] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis fluctuates strongly, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates weakly [109] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate increases month - on - month, with great supply pressure. There will be seasonal maintenance in the northwest from August to September 2025, and there is still a lot of new capacity to be put into production. The northwest integrated device has a good profit, and the profit of caustic soda should be particularly concerned in 2025. PVC production enterprises are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the start - up rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are generally weak year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to weaken, and a large amount of risk - free arbitrage may lead to a large increase in warehouse receipts in the later stage [113][115][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has declined, and the spot price of near - term caustic soda has collapsed. The upside space of caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, the overall demand is weak, and both liquid and flake caustic soda have seen a week - on - week inventory build - up. The caustic soda price has been falling this week, mainly due to weakening demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product [3][6]. - For different market participants, corresponding hedging strategies are recommended. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options; traders looking to build inventory can sell put options and buy call options; terminal customers worried about price increases can buy call options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - China's caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in China has remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda is 847 yuan/ton (converted to 2646.875 yuan/dry ton), and the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has declined [11]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi are presented, with daily - updated data [37]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions are analyzed, including the differences between Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, and Jiangsu - Shandong, with daily - updated data [37]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Supply**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North, Northwest, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the estimated domestic caustic soda production is 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04% [55]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance this week, while some are still under maintenance or have planned maintenance. This week's maintenance is expected to affect a total of 27,950 tons of caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity [60]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: The operation status of flake caustic soda units of various manufacturers is reported, including normal operation, reduced operation, and maintenance [64]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The overall supply - demand imbalance in the south has not improved significantly. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23% [67]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, remaining unchanged from last week [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate in the Yangtze River Delta is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand in the printing and dyeing industry remains weak [67]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%. The inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65% [80]. 3.6 Valuation - **Cost Side**: The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen [84]. - **Profit**: This week, the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry at the spot end has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost - side price and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price [85]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method, and the comprehensive profit of the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [97].