1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In September, China's economic data was gradually released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" state with key economic data missing, and Fed officials gradually signaled interest - rate cuts [4]. - Supply - demand: In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some plants are expected to enter maintenance, tightening market supply, and with the approaching demand procurement cycle, liquid caustic soda prices are expected to rise steadily. In Shandong, with the shipment of orders from other provinces and the decline in enterprise inventories, some enterprises may continue to raise prices. The low - concentration caustic soda market is expected to rise slightly, while the high - concentration caustic soda may be sold at lower prices [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, the spot price in Shandong has been relatively strong, but there is a certain expectation of production cuts in the alumina industry. Coupled with the improvement of enterprise profits due to the recovery of liquid chlorine prices, the caustic soda 2601 contract will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. - Strategy advice: For the caustic soda 2601 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2600 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2300 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, the price difference of 32% caustic soda between Shandong and Jiangsu, and Shandong and Zhejiang were presented. Also, data on the basis, the market prices of flake caustic soda (99%) in Shandong and the northwest, the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and raw salt in Shandong, and the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong were shown [9][12]. - **Futures market**: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, alumina, PVC, and soda ash, the number of caustic soda warehouse receipts were presented [15]. - **Weekly market review (20251010 - 20251016)**: The prices, price changes, and price change rates of products such as raw salt, liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide were provided. For example, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased from 815 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.84%, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 150% [18]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side - Output and operating rate**: From 20251010 - 1016, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous period. Loads in the northwest, north, east, south, and northeast regions all declined [20]. - **Supply side - Enterprise maintenance situation**: Enterprises in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, and Liaoning have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and durations [22]. - **Downstream demand**: In the alumina industry, due to high profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry and shrinking profits in the alumina industry, electrolytic aluminum plants have made small - scale purchases for replenishment, but the transaction price is still declining. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased by 1.02% week - on - week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of 20251016, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period and an increase of 13.83% compared to the same period last year. The inventory situation varied in different regions [29]. - **Liquid chlorine**: As of October 16, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.43%. The liquid chlorine market is expected to be stable with a downward trend in the near future. As of October 17, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, and it is expected to rise to 78.47% this week [33]. - **Chlor - alkali cost - profit**: From 20251010 - 20251016, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 394 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.54% [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continues to trade on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the latest US non - farm payroll data. During the National Day holiday, the market is shipping based on previous orders, and enterprises may face some pressure. The price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region is expected to remain stable, while in the Shandong market, due to the approaching holiday, there is no obvious positive news on the demand side, and the inventory of local alkali plants is likely to increase, with the possibility of price cuts in the near future. The spot trend in Shandong is weak, demand is lower than expected, and the futures price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize after the holiday. The recommended trading strategy is to set the upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2601 contract at 2700 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 2400 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The report presents multiple charts showing the price trends of caustic soda in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang), the price differences between different types of caustic soda (32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda), and the price relationships between caustic soda and related products (such as raw salt, liquid chlorine). The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel. In the week from 20250919 - 20250925, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.36% to 1270 yuan/ton, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest remained at 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong remained at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 1.86% to 2950 yuan/ton [10][13][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the price trends of caustic soda futures and its comparison with other related futures (soda ash, alumina, PVC), as well as the relationship between the caustic soda futures price and the number of warehouse receipts. The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: In the week of 20250919 - 0925, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The load in the Northwest decreased due to new device maintenance, while the load in North and East China increased after device maintenance. It is estimated that the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will be around 85.9%, and the weekly output will be around 845,700 tons. The report also lists the maintenance plans of multiple enterprises [22][23]. - **Downstream Demand**: For alumina, the current spot supply in northern China is relatively loose, while the market - available spot in Henan and Southwest China is still tight. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and some enterprises continue to purchase imported ore. The production is relatively stable, but the narrowing profit due to falling prices makes enterprises more willing to negotiate lower prices for raw materials. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to adjust weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 391,200 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 26.26%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, North, Central, and East China increased, while those in the Northeast, South, and Southwest decreased. In the North China region, the demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and the inventory increased; the high - concentration caustic soda inventory decreased. In Tianjin and Hebei, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the South China region, the inventory decreased due to reduced supply. In the Central China region, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the East China region, the inventory increased slightly due to increased supply. In the Northwest region, the inventory in Gansu and Ningxia decreased due to maintenance, while the inventory in Shaanxi increased due to poor sales. In the Southwest region, the inventory decreased due to active pre - holiday stocking [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 32.26% to - 150 yuan/ton. The price increase was affected by the reduced supply in Jiangsu, and then remained stable. The supply and demand in Shandong did not change significantly, and downstream procurement was stable. In Hebei and the Northeast, the load of chlor - alkali enterprises increased, and downstream pre - holiday stocking was active, which supported the price of liquid chlorine. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate this week will increase to 82.17% due to the increased operation of some enterprises. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.34%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the caustic soda price decreased significantly, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, and the chlor - alkali profit decreased [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and inventory - building demand from alumina, especially the expected 3.6 million - ton alumina capacity to be put into production in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The export support is still strong, and the downstream peak - season restocking is likely to drive the spot price upwards. Although the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC may limit the overall industry profit expansion, the overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude [5] - **PVC**: In 2025, the high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit the export to India, and the market will continue to short PVC profits. The overall trend is bearish [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Caustic Soda**: The supply side shows that the average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The demand side is strong, with alumina having high production willingness and strong demand for caustic soda. The export support is also strong. The overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude, with specific strategies including holding long positions in contracts 10 and 11, conducting positive spreads in 10 - 1 and 11 - 1, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [5] - **PVC**: The high - production situation is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit exports. The overall trend is bearish, with strategies including shorting on rallies, not participating in inter - period spreads, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,562 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 changes little, and the 10 - 1 month spread is strong. The export market still has support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the continuous expansion of the flake caustic - liquid caustic spread. The 50% - 32% caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][22] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory, with a strong structure. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 18.61%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. The actual capacity expansion of caustic soda in 2025 will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side of caustic soda changes greatly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine leads to a good overall profit situation [39][40][42] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina shows an increase in production, inventory, and stable profits. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production can drive a new round of demand expansion. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The finished paper industry has a low year - on - year start - up rate. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries all have stable starts [79][86][96] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis fluctuates strongly, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates weakly [109] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate increases month - on - month, with great supply pressure. There will be seasonal maintenance in the northwest from August to September 2025, and there is still a lot of new capacity to be put into production. The northwest integrated device has a good profit, and the profit of caustic soda should be particularly concerned in 2025. PVC production enterprises are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the start - up rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are generally weak year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to weaken, and a large amount of risk - free arbitrage may lead to a large increase in warehouse receipts in the later stage [113][115][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has declined, and the spot price of near - term caustic soda has collapsed. The upside space of caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, the overall demand is weak, and both liquid and flake caustic soda have seen a week - on - week inventory build - up. The caustic soda price has been falling this week, mainly due to weakening demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product [3][6]. - For different market participants, corresponding hedging strategies are recommended. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options; traders looking to build inventory can sell put options and buy call options; terminal customers worried about price increases can buy call options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - China's caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in China has remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda is 847 yuan/ton (converted to 2646.875 yuan/dry ton), and the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has declined [11]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi are presented, with daily - updated data [37]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions are analyzed, including the differences between Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, and Jiangsu - Shandong, with daily - updated data [37]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Supply**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North, Northwest, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the estimated domestic caustic soda production is 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04% [55]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance this week, while some are still under maintenance or have planned maintenance. This week's maintenance is expected to affect a total of 27,950 tons of caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity [60]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: The operation status of flake caustic soda units of various manufacturers is reported, including normal operation, reduced operation, and maintenance [64]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The overall supply - demand imbalance in the south has not improved significantly. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23% [67]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, remaining unchanged from last week [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate in the Yangtze River Delta is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand in the printing and dyeing industry remains weak [67]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%. The inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65% [80]. 3.6 Valuation - **Cost Side**: The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen [84]. - **Profit**: This week, the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry at the spot end has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost - side price and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price [85]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method, and the comprehensive profit of the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend, with the daily operating range estimated to be around 2570 - 2700. The supply - side policy利好 sentiment in the earlier stage has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The alumina operating capacity in China remains at a high level, and the amount of alkali sent to the main downstream by alkali plants has increased. The off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly for rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices. The utilization rate of production capacity is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited receiving capacity of the liquid chlorine downstream may drag down the profit of chlor - alkali and limit the upward space of the operating rate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2644 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the futures trading volume is 752433 lots, down 277186 lots; the futures holding volume is 189077 lots, down 19374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 7630 lots, up 4809 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2655 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2723 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda is - 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 637 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3215 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. From July 11th to 17th, the average utilization rate of production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, up 2.2% week - on - week. As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), up 2.56% week - on - week and 1.78% year - on - year [1] Industry News - The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity last week increased by 2.2% to 82.6%. The alumina operating rate increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, and the average profit of alumina was 360.7 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 58.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic data in May still showed resilience, and the Fed continued to pause rate cuts in its June meeting. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and changes in US tariff policies. In the supply - demand aspect, the quantity of low - concentration caustic soda delivered to major downstream industries in Shandong Province is expected to remain high this week, with non - aluminum downstream industries and traders resistant to high prices. There are both newly - added maintenance enterprises and downstream enterprises in the province, which is expected to have limited impact on the market. After the new alumina production capacity is put into operation, the demand has increased. The market has an expectation of continued price cuts, but the expectation is not too bad. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little, lacking new support, and the caustic soda 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level. The upper reference pressure level is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has declined, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has converged. The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, 98% flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and alumina in Shandong have all decreased to varying degrees, with the price of liquid chlorine dropping by 98%. The prices of raw salt and viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures contracts compared with those of soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipt quantity [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week from June 13 - 19, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, while those in the Northwest and East China increased their loads after equipment maintenance. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate in North China will slightly increase to about 81.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 798,600 tons [20]. - **Downstream (Alumina)**: The supply of alumina has decreased. An alumina enterprise in the southern region reduced its production capacity due to ore issues, slightly intensifying the tight supply situation in the south. As of June 19, the built - in production capacity of Chinese alumina was 112.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 87.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.89% [26]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 366,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first decreased and then increased, with an average weekly price of 1 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. It is expected to further decline to 77.02% this week. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.27% [35][36].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report views the SH2509 futures contract as oscillating [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price; in the medium - to - long - term, with the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the exhaustion of downstream stockpiling demand, there is an expected weakening in the supply - demand balance of caustic soda [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2332 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the futures open interest was 261,587 lots, up 4,321 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 27,085 lots, down 4,825 lots; the futures trading volume was 393,962 lots, down 41,692 lots. The closing prices of the January and May contracts were 2312 yuan/ton and 2372 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan and 46 yuan respectively [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 387 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry News - From May 30th to June 5th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. As of June 5th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 382,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 5.52% [1] Viewpoint Summary - The SH2509 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 2332 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.6% month - on - month to 83.5%. On the demand side, the number of alumina restarting plants increased, the operating rate continued to rise; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.04% month - on - month to 80.56%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 1.18% month - on - month to 61.5%. This week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.67% month - on - month to 382,100 tons, maintaining a downward trend and at a relatively high level in the same period. The centralized maintenance in June has started, but the high profit of chlor - alkali drives the high - load operation of the devices, and the reduction in supply may be limited. The profit of downstream alumina has recovered and restarts have increased, and the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by some alumina plants in Shandong and Guangxi has been raised. It is the off - season for some non - aluminum industries, and enterprises are cautious in receiving goods and mainly meet rigid demand. Currently, the ECU cost in Shandong is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the peak season of coal - fired power demand may support the future power cost [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall comprehensive profit of caustic soda was relatively high in the first quarter of this year, and enterprises had a weak willingness to reduce production through maintenance, mostly maintaining high operation rates [4][10] - The cost of caustic soda mainly consists of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda for enterprises with self - supplied power plants may further decrease, and the expectation of loss - induced production reduction is difficult to occur [4][10] - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than the same period last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. The demand for alumina also declined due to cost - related maintenance and production reduction of some alumina enterprises, and the short - term stocking demand for caustic soda in alumina plants was weak [4][10] Group 2: Upstream Device Maintenance and Production Reduction - Upstream production enterprises generally conduct a large - scale routine maintenance every 2 - 3 years and a small - scale production line rotation inspection every year. In the first quarter of this year, due to high comprehensive profits, most enterprises maintained high operation rates [4][10] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost of caustic soda is mainly composed of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly, with the price of raw salt in surveyed chlor - alkali enterprises ranging from 280 - 300 yuan/ton (delivered). The cost of self - supplied power plants is lower, and with the decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda may further decrease [4][10] Group 4: Downstream Demand - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. Downstream enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand. Non - aluminum terminal inventories were generally low, showing a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality [4][10] - Recently, the price of alumina was low, and some alumina enterprises reduced production due to cost issues, dragging down the rigid demand for caustic soda. Alumina plants had high inventories of caustic soda raw materials, and the short - term stocking demand was weak [4][10] Group 5: Specific Situation of Surveyed Enterprises Caustic Soda Enterprise A - It has a designed capacity of 150,000 tons and an actual capacity of 200,000 tons, with chloroacetic acid as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and some liquid chlorine sold externally [11] - It purchases industrial electricity externally, with a production electricity price of over 0.6 yuan, a delivered price of raw sea salt of 300 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive production cost of about 2,400 yuan/ton [11] - The current direct sales ratio is about 60% - 70%, with a target of 80% [12] Caustic Soda Enterprise B - It has a capacity of 200,000 tons, with CPE as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and a small amount of liquid chlorine sold externally [13] - It has a storage capacity of 15,000 tons, a normal inventory level of 5,000 tons, and an inventory of about 2,000 - 3,000 tons during the survey [14] - It purchases electricity externally, with a delivered price of sea salt for production of 250 - 260 yuan/ton and a full production cost of caustic soda between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan [14] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will bottom out and rebound, with a minimum price of - 350 yuan. In April, there were few export orders, and the export outlook for May was not optimistic [16] - During the survey, it was believed that the spot price of caustic soda could still rise, but the duration might be short. Qingdao Bay planned to officially put into operation 200,000 tons in May, and Jinling planned to start the 50% caustic soda device on April 19th [17] Enterprise C (Caustic Soda Flakes Trader) - It is a secondary trader of caustic soda flakes, mainly sourcing from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. During the survey, the social inventory of caustic soda flakes in Shandong was low due to traders' pessimistic expectations [18] - The freight from Inner Mongolia to Shandong is 240 - 260 yuan/ton excluding tax, and from Xinjiang to Shandong is 480 yuan/ton. Shandong's caustic soda flakes mainly come from Inner Mongolia [18] - It has a short - term bearish view on the market, and the price of caustic soda flakes in Inner Mongolia was 3,250 yuan/ton during the survey, with an expected further decline [18] Enterprise D (Liquid Chlorine Trader) - It is a liquid chlorine trader. Due to the high requirements for production and transportation, the threshold for liquid chlorine traders is high [19] - The sales radius is generally within 300 kilometers. Liquid chlorine is usually shipped on the same day or the next day without inventory [19] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will not decline too much in the short term and may rebound to 1 - 100 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range between - 300 and 200 yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine markets in Shandong and Jiangsu are differentiated, and summer is a relatively off - season for small liquid chlorine - consuming enterprises [21]