如何看光模块未来几年增长空间？20260108 摘要 光模块行业受益于数据中心升级和 AI 大模型需求，800G 光模块增量主 要来自 AI 应用。SKU 层互联需求增加，高速光模块需求呈指数级增长， 预计 2025-2028 年行业保持高增长。 海外大厂如谷歌、英伟达采用 Skyop 设计，增加光连接需求。谷歌预计 2026 年展示机柜内光互联方案，英伟达或稍晚。高密度机柜内部及 Skill Up 层之间将大量使用高速光模块。 硅光集成方案、LPO 等技术路径市场份额将提升。2025 年硅光在单模 光模块中占比 20%-30%，预计 2026 年翻倍至 40%-50%，主要因 800G 硅光产品成熟及 100G EML 芯片紧缺。 LPO 适用于小应用推理场景，LRO 和 TRO 通过定制化设计降低整体链 路功耗，适用于特定连接场景。这些定制化互联解决方案将在未来批量 应用于特定连接场景。 英伟达和博通积极推动 CPO 方案，但共封装结构导致维修复杂且成本高 昂，限制大规模应用。NPU 通过集成光模块缩短电信号传输距离，头部 厂商已开始研发。 Q&A 2026 年和 2027 年光模块行业的增长趋势如何？ ...

通信- 当前时点还有哪些标的可以配置？20151223 摘要 AI 算力板块受益于宏观环境和季节性因素，光模块行业弹性巨大，尤其 关注 800G 到 1.6T 的价格弹性以及 GB300 到 LOBIN 的配比提升，是 AI 算力细分领域中增长潜力最大的方向。 AI 并非泡沫，与 2000 年互联网泡沫相比，AI 替代的是人类工具，市场 空间更大。AI 用户增长速度快于当年互联网，OpenAI 等公司收入迅速 增长，且 GPU 利用率高，未见成本非线性下降或需求坍塌风险。 液冷产业趋势确立，鼎通科技获英伟达液冷订单，预计 2026 年液冷方 案产值达 4 亿元，实现 1.5 亿元利润。英维克受益于 Meta 全液冷链条 突破，2026 年业绩预期上修至 13-15 亿元，与谷歌合作进展良好。 中际旭创已进入 1.6T 规模交付阶段，凭借上游芯片、光源等环节优势， 稳住交付能力并提升毛利率，预计 2026 年业绩至少达到 350 亿左右。 新易盛受益于 AI 集群高速以太网渗透加速，订单和出货节奏增强，未来 几年内业绩有望达到 250 亿以上。 天孚通信深度绑定英伟达，在 800G 向 1.6T 切换过程中份额 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Module Isolators Industry Overview - The demand for isolators in optical modules is surging due to their critical role in protecting lasers and enhancing system stability. The rapid growth in demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to lead to a continued shortage of isolators in the coming years [1][2][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The isolator market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to cautious sales strategies from leading global supplier Coherent, which has limited overall production capacity. Domestic suppliers like Angna and Dongtianwei are also struggling to meet market demand in the short term, resulting in rising prices for isolators [1][2][6]. - **Core Component - Faraday Rotator**: The Faraday rotator is the core component of isolators, effectively blocking reflected light to protect lasers. Major suppliers include Coherent, Sumitomo Electric, and domestic companies such as Chengdu Feiruit and Xiamen Senyi, but overall production capacity remains insufficient [1][3][8]. - **Projected Demand**: For 800G optical modules, the DR8 EML solution requires 8 isolators, the DR8 silicon photonics solution requires 4, and the FR8 wavelength division multiplexing solution requires 1. By 2026, overseas demand for 800G and 1.6T isolators is expected to exceed 300 million units, with total demand potentially surpassing 400 million units when considering domestic markets and other specifications [1][5][12]. - **Market Trends**: The optical module industry is facing tight supply conditions across the entire supply chain, from optical modules to upstream chips and passive components like isolators. Recent observations indicate rising prices for isolators, CW light sources, and expedited fees, reflecting the tight supply situation [2][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **福晶科技 (Fujing Technology)**: The company has a significant advantage in the Faraday rotator sector due to its self-manufacturing capabilities for SGGD chips, which effectively reduce costs. Fujing Technology is actively collaborating with domestic isolator and optical module manufacturers to continuously improve product performance, with expectations of significant production growth in the next one to two quarters [1][10][11][14]. - **Financial Performance**: Fujing Technology's main business has benefited from the growing demand for PCB ultrafast lasers and other optical components, with revenue and profit growth exceeding 40% and 50%, respectively, in the third quarter [3][14]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The ongoing development of high-bandwidth communication technologies will sustain the demand for high-performance passive components like isolators and Faraday rotators. The international manufacturers' control over production capacity exacerbates supply-demand conflicts, leading to price increases. Investors may consider companies like Dongtianwei and Fujing Technology, which have established positions in this supply chain and are likely to gain more market share as domestic production increases [7][12].

Summary of Google Industry Chain Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on Google's comprehensive AI industry chain, which includes the Gemini model, TPU chips, data centers, and network technology, providing a significant advantage in the AI field [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments AI Industry Chain - Google is transitioning from a traditional internet giant to a comprehensive AI industry chain company, moving beyond reliance on search, advertising, and other traditional internet businesses [3][4]. - The Gemini 3 model is a native multimodal model that enhances reasoning performance by processing various data types and benefits from Google's ecosystem data support and TPU architecture optimization, reducing training costs [2][5]. TPU Chips - TPU chips are a key competitive advantage for Google, with continuous improvements in computing density, reasoning performance, and energy efficiency, significantly lowering the training costs of large models [2][6]. - The demand for TPUs is expected to reach 4 to 5 million units by 2026, with a TPU to OCS module ratio of 1:1.5, indicating a substantial increase in OCS module demand [3][17]. Domestic Beneficiaries - Domestic optical module manufacturers like Xinyi and Xuchuang benefit from collaboration with Google, with Xinyi expected to supply 800G optical modules and Xuchuang holding a leading market share in the 800G and 1.6T markets [2][7]. - The demand for MPO (multi-fiber parallel connectors) is expected to rise alongside optical module growth, with Changxin Bochuang projected to achieve significant revenue growth due to strong demand from Google [2][7]. OCS Development - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) segment is in its early to mid-development stage, with companies like Yokogawa Electronics and Fukui Electronics showing potential [3][8]. - Google's OCS solution plays a critical role in its data center architecture, utilizing MEMs technology to optimize power consumption, although efficiency and latency improvements are still needed [3][10]. Market Demand and Investment Insights - Recent orders, such as Fujii's order for over 80 million RMB worth of OCS switches, indicate a clear market demand for OCS technology [3][16]. - For investment strategies, optical modules are considered a stable choice, while the OCS segment offers greater elasticity for potential returns [3][20]. Additional Important Content - The integration of MEMs technology in OCS switches is highlighted, with a focus on its advantages in power optimization and the need for further efficiency improvements [3][11][13]. - The core value of components in OCS switches, such as liquid crystal components valued at approximately $40,000 per unit, is discussed, along with the overall market dynamics and pricing trends [3][14][15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, emphasizing Google's strategic positioning in the AI industry and the implications for associated sectors and investment opportunities.

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing accelerated growth, driven by increased demand from major tech companies like Meta and Google, particularly in AI investments [2][3] - Meta has raised its expectations for cabinet configurations in 2025 and 2026, which is beneficial for the liquid cooling and optical communication sectors [2][3] Key Developments - **Meta's Minerva Cabinet**: Configured with 32 self-developed ASIC chips, exceeding 30 kW power consumption, utilizing full liquid cooling and 800G optical modules, indicating a shift towards liquid cooling solutions [2][3] - **OCP Conference Insights**: - Infinera released a CDU that meets Google's standards, with a power capacity of 2 MW, potentially setting a new trend [4] - NV introduced a new adapter standard transitioning from UQD to MQD, showcasing rapid technological iterations in liquid cooling [4] - Eaton's acquisitions of Baode and Weidi reflect a trend towards full industry chain integration, emphasizing safety and stability [5] Market Challenges and Opportunities - The domestic liquid cooling market faces challenges, such as a zinc shortage in 2025, but is expected to see a significant surge in domestic computing power cards in 2026 [6] - The demand for liquid cooling is anticipated to rise due to increased power consumption from computing chips, making 2026 a potential breakout year for domestic liquid cooling solutions [6] - The energy storage sector has already adopted liquid cooling technology, and the rising AI power demand is expected to further boost this market [6] Future Market Outlook - The liquid cooling market has a promising outlook, with low penetration rates in 2025 but expected significant growth in 2026, particularly for new chips primarily utilizing liquid cooling [7] - Both domestic and international markets are projected to see substantial increases, with higher expectations for ASIC and NA series products [7] Competitive Landscape - **Infinera**: Holds a competitive advantage as the only global leader with a fully self-developed supply chain, serving major clients like NV, Google, Meta, and OpenAI [8] - Other companies poised to benefit from the liquid cooling industry's growth include Tongfei Co., Sihuan New Materials, Yilun Co., Kehua Data, Haichuan Co., and Shenling Environment, all of which are involved in various components of the liquid cooling supply chain [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the rapid development of the space computing industry, particularly in commercial aerospace, with major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google launching initiatives such as the Starlink project and Project Suncatch, respectively, to deploy advanced computing capabilities in space [1][2][3] - China is also making significant strides in this area, planning to launch between 1,000 to 3,000 satellites to support its three-body computing constellation, with Potevio Technology as a key supplier [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Space Computing - NVIDIA's Starlink initiative aims to send its first H100 GPU to space by November 2025, while Google's Project Suncatch plans to launch satellites equipped with TPU 6 chips by 2027 [2] - The efficiency of space computing, powered by solar energy, is several times greater than ground-based power, addressing energy shortages [2] - The commercial model for space computing is gradually taking shape, with companies like Nanjing Blue Tower exploring B-end services through satellite interconnectivity [1][3] AI Industry - There is ongoing debate regarding the existence of a bubble in the AI industry, highlighted by OpenAI's projected investment of $1.4 trillion against a quarterly revenue of over $4 billion and losses exceeding $10 billion [4] - Concerns have been raised about the low return on investment (ROI) for cloud service providers in North America, but the long-term growth potential of AI remains strong despite short-term financial data [4][6] Optical Communication Industry - The optical communication sector is experiencing significant growth, with strong demand for 1.6T optical modules and second-generation optical modules, alongside a robust supply chain for optical chips and lasers [5][7] - Companies like Lumentum and Coherent Finisar reported better-than-expected earnings, driven by data center interconnectivity and expanding production capabilities [7] - The demand for 1.6T modules is expected to reach 20 to 30 million units by 2026, while 800G demand could reach 40 to 50 million units [7] Additional Important Insights - Liquid cooling technology is highlighted as a key area of interest, with NVIDIA projecting a market size of $7 billion by 2026, indicating a significant growth opportunity [2][6] - The optical communication industry is seeing technological advancements and capacity expansions, with companies like ZTE pushing for new technology applications [5][7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the optical communication space, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Technology, as well as laser chip companies like Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics [7]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 3 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a 30% quarter-over-quarter growth, with a net profit of 31 billion RMB, also reflecting a similar growth rate. Financial indicators have shown steady improvement since the beginning of 2025, with positive cash flow and asset-liability ratios indicating a favorable development trend [2][3][4]. Core Industry Insights - The demand from industry clients has significantly increased, particularly from overseas clients who are ramping up capital expenditures and planning AI data center constructions. This has led to strong demand for 800G and 1.6T optical module products, placing the optical module industry in a high prosperity state. The company anticipates continued improvement in key financial metrics over the next few quarters [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 102 billion RMB, a 26% increase from Q2. The gross margin remained strong at nearly 43%, with a consolidated net profit of 33 billion RMB, up from 26 billion RMB in the previous quarter, marking a 30% increase. Overall, financial indicators have shown steady improvement since early 2025 [3][4]. Product Demand and Structure - The optimization of product structure has led to an increase in the proportion of high-end products like 800G and 1.6T in the revenue mix. Both product lines have a high silicon photonics ratio and have received recognition and validation from key clients, suggesting potential for further gross margin growth [2][6]. Supply Chain Management - To address the material shortages anticipated in 2026, the company has proactively stocked up and strengthened collaboration with suppliers. They have also locked in human resources and expanded production capacity to meet rapidly growing market demand, ensuring a competitive edge in a challenging market environment [2][8]. Material Shortages - Currently, optical chips, including EML and CW types, are among the most critical materials in short supply. Despite the company's advance planning and capacity locking, supply remains tight. However, with active cooperation from suppliers, relief is expected in the first half of 2026 [9][12]. Tax and Regulatory Impact - The effective tax rate for the quarter reached 15.8%, slightly higher than before, primarily due to the OECD's Pillar Two global tax reform aimed at preventing low-tax competition. The company has cautiously accounted for potential tax adjustments based on this new framework [10]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the demand for 800G and 1.6T products in 2026, although it acknowledges that all materials are experiencing increased demand, with optical chips being the most constrained. The company aims to effectively manage raw material preparation issues to meet customer demands [12][14]. Investment and Expansion - The company has significantly increased its construction projects, with investments nearing 1 billion RMB, primarily for capacity expansion and factory infrastructure to align with expected orders in 2026. Continuous investment will be necessary to keep pace with demand [17]. Emerging Trends - The optical module sector is witnessing a new trend with the rise of SKU modules, driven by rapid bandwidth demand. Many CSP clients are looking to adopt Ethernet technology for in-cabinet connections, creating new demands for optical connection solutions [18]. Conclusion - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-end optical products, with proactive measures in supply chain management and capacity expansion. The anticipated material shortages and regulatory changes will require careful navigation, but the overall outlook remains positive for the upcoming quarters.

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Module Sector Industry Overview - The optical module sector is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the North American market, which is outperforming expectations. Domestic leading companies are still undervalued despite their strong performance [1][2] - The AI era is enhancing the technological attributes of optical module companies, leading to faster iteration cycles and a more stable market structure [1][2] Key Companies and Performance - Leading companies such as Xuchuang and NewEase have shown excellent performance, with notable increases in net profit margins and revenue growth [2][3] - The optical module market is expected to see a substantial increase in demand, with predictions of 50 million units needed by 2025 and 100 million by 2027, particularly for 800G and 1.6T modules [1][6] Market Dynamics - The development of CPUs is directly impacting the performance of optical module companies, with varying progress across different regions [4][7] - Traditional electrical switches are being gradually replaced by OCS (Open Compute Switch) switches, which have begun to receive bulk orders [4][9] Demand Drivers - The demand for 1.6T and 800G optical modules is driven by AI inference and training needs, with major tech companies increasing their order requirements [5][6] - The construction of large-scale GPU clusters is enhancing the demand for related hardware, including optical modules and switches [5][10] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite significant price increases for leading optical module companies, their valuations remain relatively low, suggesting continued investment potential [10][11] - Recommendations include leading companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase, as well as upstream companies benefiting from CPU development [11][12] Technological Developments - OCS technology is gaining traction due to its low cost and low power consumption, which is expected to increase its penetration in data center switches [9] - Companies like Google are firmly advancing OCS, and recent orders for related technologies indicate a growing market [9] Conclusion - The optical module sector is poised for growth driven by AI and technological advancements, with leading companies maintaining strong performance and favorable valuations, making them attractive investment opportunities [1][11]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the optical module industry, highlighting the impact of AI computing demand on market dynamics and growth potential [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **AI Computing Demand Surge**: The demand for optical modules is driven by a significant increase in AI computing needs, with leading companies raising their 2026 demand forecast for 1.6T optical modules from 7-10 million units to 20 million units, indicating potential for further upward revisions [1][3]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: At the OCP conference, there is intense competition between CPU and pluggable optical module solutions. The Taiwanese supply chain favors CPU, while the mainland supply chain leans towards CPC/NCC solutions. The training end is sensitive to latency, making CPU more impactful, whereas the inference end prioritizes cost-performance [1][4]. 3. **Growth of GPU Clusters**: The rapid development of large-scale GPU clusters, exemplified by Meta's clear timeline, is expected to further drive demand for AI computing hardware, including optical modules [1][5]. 4. **Strong Financial Performance**: The optical module industry has consistently exceeded market expectations since 2023, with revenue and profit growth. Leading companies have reported significant quarterly net profit increases, suggesting a need for reevaluation of their valuations in the AI era [1][6]. 5. **Optimistic Outlook for 1.6T Optical Modules**: The development outlook for 1.6T optical modules is very positive, with a significantly shortened iteration cycle compared to previous upgrades. This benefits leading manufacturers like Zhongji Xuchuang [1][7]. 6. **Long-term Potential of CPU Technology**: While CPU technology has substantial long-term potential, its short-term impact on pluggable optical module manufacturers is limited. Companies like Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are expected to find new business opportunities through internal coupling packaging and silicon photonic chip design [1][8]. 7. **Stock Price vs. Fundamentals**: Current stock price weakness is primarily driven by trading factors rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Companies like Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are performing well in the context of 800G and 1.6T introductions, with a favorable outlook for the entire industry chain [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - The optical module industry's valuation is currently seen as reasonable or even low, with leading companies projected to have a valuation of around 12 times by 2026 based on adjusted demand forecasts [1][6]. - Domestic manufacturers are gaining opportunities in the CW light source market as it replaces EML, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [1][7].

Summary of Conference Call on Communication Sector Industry Overview - The communication sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term excess returns expected from optical modules and the North American computing chain, but absolute returns require more driving changes [1][2] - The operator segment is characterized by defensive attributes, showing low earnings volatility, while the broader wireless industry and edge AI products are impacted by US-China trade tensions, leading to a slight decline in exports in Q3, although year-on-year growth remains positive [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Optical Module Demand**: The demand for optical modules is substantial, with 800G demand reaching 40-45 million units and 1.6T demand at 20 million units, indicating a supply shortage and limited price reductions expected [1][9] - **Growth Projections**: The industry is expected to see significant growth through 2026, with new demand anticipated to be very high, and the outlook is increasingly clear for the medium to long term [1][10] - **North American Computing Chain**: The North American computing chain is projected to reach new highs by the end of Q3, and if positive trends continue, the outlook for 2026 and beyond will be more optimistic [4][13] - **Investment Value**: The AI and North American computing chains are considered to have strong investment value based on certainty, valuation, and short-term growth potential, suggesting continued investment in these areas [7] Additional Important Points - **Supply Chain Preparations**: In a supply-demand imbalance, order guidance for the end of this year and into next year may be released early to allow supply chains to prepare for long-cycle materials [4][12] - **Ruby Architecture**: The Ruby-related industry chain is beginning to prepare for increased demand in 2026, with cloud vendors starting to place orders for 1.6T modules [8] - **Market Activity in October**: October is typically an active month for the optical module market, coinciding with the release of Q3 earnings from North American computing companies, which may provide optimistic guidance and product upgrades [11] Conclusion - The communication sector, particularly the optical module market and North American computing chain, is poised for growth despite current challenges. The demand for optical modules is robust, and the industry is preparing for significant future orders, indicating a positive outlook for the coming years [1][10][12]