11月26日，在长沙举办的"2025年期货业高质量发展创新研讨会"上，国盛证券首席经济学家熊园博士 以"当前宏观经济形势分析"为题发表演讲，系统阐述了2025年我国经济运行特征，并对2026年经济走势 与政策取向作出前瞻研判。 熊园表示，2025年我国经济呈现"前高后低"态势，前三季度我国实际GDP增长5.2%，四季度增长达到 4.4%就可实现全年"保5%"的增长目标。同时，熊园深入分析了房地产市场的现状与前景，他表示，当 前仍处于"去地产化"的过渡期和转型期，经济转型亟待新动能、新模式。 在资产配置方面，熊园看好A股资产。他认为，经济韧性、政策灵活性和产业竞争性将共同提升A股的 配置价值。对债券市场，他预计2026年国内债券以震荡为主，"上有顶、下有底"，10年期国债收益率波 动可能在1.5%~1.9%。 熊园认为，"十五五"规划建议中提到，坚持扩大内需，将惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合；注重在发展中保障和改善民生，在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间；既看GDP，也看GNI（国民总收 入）；既重视"中国经济"，也重视"中国人经济"。 熊园认为，在"十五五"规划建议的指引和政策的支持下，2026年我国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities suggests a strategic and tactical bullish outlook on A-share assets, driven by the anticipated rise of new economic drivers and forces in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in advanced manufacturing and technology [2][3] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in China, highlighting that each era has its core assets that reflect the macroeconomic environment, with the upcoming period expected to attract global resources and create a bull market in equities [2] - The focus is on four main investment themes: "All in AI, new productive forces, self-control, and going global" [1][2] Group 2: Asset Allocation - A-shares are viewed positively, with a focus on a "dumbbell strategy" where investments are concentrated at both ends: technology growth and dividend stocks, while rotating through mid-range assets [3] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology related to self-control and domestic substitution, as well as long-duration low-yield assets like dividend stocks [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The domestic bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.9% due to various economic factors [4] - In the U.S. market, the report anticipates volatility in U.S. stocks, with a downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, influenced by AI narratives and fiscal policies [5][6] Group 4: Commodity Outlook - The report notes a broad presence of bullish options in commodities, with precious metals like gold and silver benefiting from trends such as "de-dollarization" and "debt monetization" [6] - Specific commodities such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths are expected to gain from energy transition and technological advancements, as well as geopolitical tensions [6]