November 25, 2025 09:38 AM GMT 2026年中国经济展望 走出通缩：2026-27年中国经 济展望 中国经济进入打破通缩攻坚战的下半场—26年，通缩顽疾仍 存却边际改善，政策以温和扩张为底色、供给侧为主轴，反 内卷与再平衡进程则仍属谨慎推进，预计名义GDP增速仅录 得4.1%。27年，政策认知深化，改革共识凝聚，或推动供需更 趋平衡，实现走出通缩。 价格：通缩磨底，2027年迎拐点。整体来看，2026年通缩或仍将贯穿全年，2027 年，供需平衡的边际改善，才会让经济逐步打破通缩僵局，实现缓步再通胀。反 内卷将以市场化方式谨慎落地。而需求端，鉴于房地产的持续拖累以及渐进的再 平衡举措，复苏亦同样温和。因此，我们预计再平衡的过程将是缓慢的，CPI将逐 步迈入低通胀区间，PPI则有望在2027年下半年走出通缩泥潭。 政策：温⽰扩张，供给侧为主，工具定⺸。财政端，2026年官方赤字率料与2025 年基本持平，但准财政工具将撬动广义财政赤字扩张GDP 0.5个百分点，支出重心 锚定科技自主与基建投资，再平衡进程伴随定向补贴、社保开支边际加码缓慢推 进。中央层面虽存在支持房地产的可能性，但落地 ...

Summary of Nengke Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nengke Technology - **Industry**: AI and Industrial Software Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: 2025 Q1-Q3 revenue increased by 5.05% to 1.088 billion CNY [2][3] - **Net Profit Growth**: Net profit rose by 40.34% to 165 million CNY [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: Improved by 2.74 percentage points to 51.35% [2][3] - **AI Revenue Contribution**: AI-related business revenue exceeded 30%, reaching 335 million CNY [2][3] - **Contract Liabilities**: Remained stable at 393 million CNY compared to the previous year [2][3] Strategic Focus - **Market Segmentation**: Focus on heavy equipment, automotive, high-tech electronics, and general machinery [2][5] - **Client Base**: Increased focus on large and medium-sized enterprises, with special industries accounting for 44% of revenue [2][5] - **Business Structure Adjustment**: Shifted resources towards high-value areas such as AI and industrial software [2][8] AI Business Development - **AI as a Core Direction**: AI business is a significant growth area, with substantial investments in AI applications and AR [2][6][10] - **AR Revenue Growth**: AR revenue increased from 28% to over 30% in Q3 [6] - **Sustainable Revenue Models**: Exploring subscription models for AI services to ensure long-term revenue [19] Industry Ecosystem and Collaboration - **Ecosystem Development**: Strengthened partnerships with computing power vendors, large model manufacturers, and robotics companies [9] - **Joint Solutions**: Collaborative development of integrated solutions to enhance technical capabilities and market reach [9] Research and Development - **R&D Investment**: Increased focus on cutting-edge AI technologies, with a capitalized R&D rate of 73% [10][17] - **Future Technology Layout**: Plans to develop AI platforms to address computational model and application coordination issues [11] Market Outlook and Future Plans - **Strong Demand in Special Industries**: Anticipated continued growth in special industries, with a focus on expanding customer penetration [19][22] - **Revenue Targets**: Projected revenue of 500-600 million CNY for 2025, 800-1,000 million CNY for 2026, and at least 1.5 billion CNY in subsequent years [20] - **AI Order Growth**: Aiming for a doubling of AI orders, with a strong pipeline of existing and new orders [21] Response to National Policies - **Alignment with National Goals**: Positive response to the Fourth Plenary Session's goals related to manufacturing strength and technological self-reliance [15][16] - **Strategic Positioning**: Company’s long-term strategy aligns with national industrial trends, focusing on high-end manufacturing and domestic production [15][16] Additional Insights - **Accounts Receivable Increase**: Driven by large contract liabilities and delayed payments from large clients, but with low risk [12] - **Profit Margin Improvement**: Resulting from a shift to high-margin AI business and optimized internal management [13][14]

Group 1 - The recent weak employment report from the U.S. Labor Department led to a significant market rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their largest single-day gains since May, reflecting a "bad news is good news" sentiment among traders [1] - The anticipation of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September soaring to 95%, and speculations of multiple rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1][2] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta are driving the market higher, while smaller stocks and cyclical stocks struggle to keep pace, indicating a disparity in market performance [2] Group 2 - The market's optimism is contrasted by geopolitical uncertainties, such as threats from former President Trump regarding tariffs on India, which could impact oil supply and market stability [3] - The dismissal of key figures at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the credibility of economic data and the independence of these institutions [3] - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, and their performance will be crucial in determining market direction, with potential risks if profit margins begin to compress [4] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of over $125 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds poses a potential stress test for the market, as it could impact liquidity and investor sentiment [3][5] - Despite the current market exuberance, there are underlying concerns about volatility and asset correlation, suggesting that the market may face significant challenges ahead [5]