证券研究报告 宏观 PPI 何时转正? 2026 年 3 月 01 日│中国内地 深度研究 近期，PPI 从去年 6 月-3.6% 的低点反弹至今年 1 月的-1.4%，预计 2 月降 幅将进一步收窄至-1.1%。按目前趋势，PPI 可能在今年 5-6 月走出长达 3 年半的"负增长周期"。我们认为，PPI 转正根本上由供需基本面改善驱动， 而非仅由全球工业品价格上升拉动。本文从宏观、中观及企业层面数据多方 面论证这一观点——所以，PPI 转正可能有一定持续性，同时，名义 GDP 增长显著回升、企业盈利增长明显修复，而后者弹性更高。更进一步，名义 增长回升或将成为顺周期属性较强的人民币汇率加速重估的"催化剂"，并 与人民币资产表现形成"正循环"，加速全球资本配置、国内资本回流至人 民币资产。我们上调 2026 年底美元兑人民币汇率预测至 6.62。由此，2026 年美元计价中国名义 GDP增长有望达到 11%左右——这意味着同样口径下 中国企业盈利增长有望高于美国及全球主要发达经济体。 一、结论先行：预判 PPI 转正时点与名义增长走势 我们预计，中国 PPI 或将在今年 5-6 月转正，为 2022 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs report indicates that while cyclical assets have room for growth, valuations of popular themes like AI are too high, leading to increased volatility as a new norm. The dollar is expected to remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious of overvalued sectors, diversify stock holdings, maintain healthy non-USD exposure (including emerging markets), and take long positions on longer-term index volatility [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, with the US ISM index rising consistently over the past few months, and the labor market stabilizing [5]. - Global manufacturing PMIs reached their highest levels in a year, with emerging market PMIs also showing month-on-month increases. Market pricing for US economic growth is still below the 2.5% annual forecast, indicating potential for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [6]. Shift to Cyclical and Value Assets - The market is witnessing a shift from expensive tech stocks to cheaper cyclical assets, particularly benefiting from the economic recovery. Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and large tech themes have experienced volatility [3][7]. AI Sector Volatility - The AI sector is facing increased challenges, with market valuations for companies involved in AI being overly optimistic. Despite the genuine productivity gains from AI, the focus on debt financing and capital expenditures is rising, leading to significant market reactions and volatility within AI-related stocks [8][9]. Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to continue its depreciation, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns and the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to European and Japanese markets. Currencies like the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real are positioned to gain against the dollar due to their cyclical beta and attractive valuations [11][12]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes betting on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations. The increasing volatility and complexity surrounding AI themes are likely to persist. A diversified stock portfolio, healthy non-USD exposure, and long positions on longer-term index volatility are recommended [14].

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - The 2026 economic outlook for the U.S. is optimistic, with expectations of growth exceeding 2%, driven by AI investments, tax reforms, and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][7] Group 2: Optimistic Factors - AI investment is expected to continue expanding, contributing to GDP growth, although the growth rate may significantly decline compared to previous years [1][6] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax reform has already been implemented in 2025, with limited incremental policies in 2026, leading to a potential decrease in fiscal stimulus effects [1][6] - The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates only twice in 2026, maintaining a neutral policy rate around 3%, which may provide some economic relief but not strong stimulus [1][6] Group 3: Risks - The negative impact of tariffs is expected to persist, with the effective tariff rate reaching its highest since 1943, potentially reducing long-term economic growth by 0.7 percentage points and contributing to inflationary pressures [2][7] - The labor market is projected to remain weak, with high unemployment rates and low job growth, which may constrain consumer spending and income growth [2][7] - Stock market returns may decline due to uncertainties related to AI narratives, monetary policy, and midterm elections, leading to a weakened wealth effect that could suppress consumption and investment [2][8]

Group 1 - The market is showing a mixed trend, with weight and growth stocks declining while speculative and quantitative sectors are rising [1] - AI performance is decent, but due to the drag from weight and growth stocks, the gains are limited [1] - The brokerage sector remains sluggish after being pressured, suggesting a shift in focus towards commercial aerospace [1] Group 2 - Commercial aerospace saw significant trading volumes of 413.6 billion and 590.8 billion, indicating accelerated activity [1] - The market is in a "water replenishment time" phase, necessitating attention to whether market differentiation leads to fragmentation [1] - There is continued optimism for large AI, with good performance in chips and steady growth in healthcare, alongside potential investment in commercial aerospace [1]

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%[2] - Year-on-year growth increased to 2.3%, but remains below last year's 2.8%[2] - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth were personal consumption (2.4 percentage points) and net exports (1.6 percentage points)[2] Employment and Consumption - There is a divergence in economic performance, characterized as "growth in summer" and "employment in winter"[2] - Non-cyclical sectors showed strong growth, while cyclical sectors experienced increased weakness[10] - Private consumption remains strong overall, but there is a notable disparity within consumption categories, with disposable income growth slowing[19] Investment Trends - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model[10] - Despite strong AI investment, traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak, questioning the effectiveness of interest rate cuts[15] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump may lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[32] - Global economic impacts from tariffs could lead to unexpected synchronized easing in 2026, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[32] - The potential for significant manufacturing cost reductions due to technological breakthroughs could increase credit demand[32]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Group 1: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The PCE index shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in September, but much of this is driven by rising gasoline and energy prices, while service prices have only increased by 0.2% [3][5] - Rent prices have decreased by 0.31% month-on-month in October, marking the largest drop in 15 years, attributed to an increase in new apartments and a slowdown in population inflow [5] - Consumers are tightening their spending, with a savings rate rising to 4.7% in September, indicating a cautious approach to spending due to concerns over job security and inflation [7] Group 2: Economic Growth - Economic growth is supported by two main pillars: AI investment and stable consumer spending [9][12] - AI-related investments now contribute over 40% to the GDP, with major tech companies like Google and Nvidia heavily investing in new facilities and data centers [10] - Despite cautious consumer behavior, spending among middle to high-income groups remains stable, preventing a significant downturn in consumption [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - Potential challenges for the economy include the risk of an AI investment bubble and rising government debt [14] - The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 175 basis points, indicating a flexible monetary policy approach to support economic stability [17] - The overall expectation is for a gradual adjustment towards a "soft landing," with inflation slowing and job security remaining relatively stable [18]

Group 1 - The current era of "great power competition" shapes the core logic of asset allocation, with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, while facing significant repayment pressures due to high federal debt levels exceeding 120% of GDP [1][3] - The U.S. economy is increasingly dependent on technology, particularly AI, which has contributed over 40% to actual GDP growth, indicating a potential "rigid bubble" in the current AI technology wave [1][7] - The U.S. stock market's long-term bull run is primarily driven by the AI wave, supported by government fiscal and monetary expansion, which in turn sustains consumer spending that constitutes over 70% of U.S. GDP [1][5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. faces structural economic challenges, including a hollowed-out manufacturing sector, with manufacturing jobs dropping from over 30% in the 1940s to just 8% today, indicating a lack of sufficient talent reserves [4][5] - The AI technology wave is seen as a potential "rigid bubble," with structural valuation risks and financial vulnerabilities emerging, similar to past tech bubbles [8][9] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a debt-driven growth model to a high-quality development model, with significant opportunities arising as the most painful phase of the old energy transition appears to be over [10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market is entering a historical opportunity phase, focusing on high-quality development and asset revitalization, which will be crucial for achieving the goal of becoming a modern socialist country by the mid-21st century [10][14] - The central government's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with a national debt of approximately 34.5 trillion RMB, only about 26% of GDP, compared to the U.S. [12] - The shift from land finance to equity finance is becoming a consensus among local governments, with a focus on revitalizing assets through the stock market [16] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in China's economic transformation, similar to the role of real estate in the past two decades, with a focus on asset revitalization and cash flow improvement [14][22] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be a significant driver for the Chinese economy, emphasizing the modernization of the industrial system and the promotion of emerging industries [26][28] - The Chinese stock market is projected to attract more domestic and foreign capital, with a notable shift in wealth allocation towards equities, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [24][30]

Group 1 - The core theme for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026 revolves around "the landing of Federal Reserve easing, structural differentiation in the US economy, global policy games, and asset revaluation" [1] - The US economy exhibits a "top-heavy" prosperity characteristic, heavily reliant on high-income group consumption and AI-related investments, with the top 10% of high-income individuals contributing nearly half of the consumption expenditure [1][20] - AI investment from the four major tech giants is expected to support about one-third of economic growth in 2026, but the increasing reliance on debt financing for AI investments raises systemic vulnerabilities, with potential economic recession risks if a bubble bursts [1][66] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are a key focus for 2026, driven by high fiscal interest expenditures and the need for a supportive environment for AI-related financial risks [2][11] - The liquidity environment is crucial for major asset classes, with expectations of a downward trend for the US dollar and a favorable environment for risk assets if the economy does not collapse [2][10] - Gold is favored among commodities due to the weak dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, while industrial metals depend on the recovery pace of global demand [2][10] Group 3 - Trump's policies focus on "tariff revenue and manufacturing return," attempting to use tariffs to fill fiscal gaps and create space for tax cuts, while securing $1.5 trillion in investments from Europe and Japan over the next three years [1][42] - The fiscal pressure is being redistributed globally, with Europe and Japan increasing fiscal expansion to counter trade and security pressures, leading to a shift in sovereign debt risks from the US to these regions [1][58] - The ongoing fiscal expansion in Europe and Japan has resulted in rising long-term bond yields in these regions, while US bonds have outperformed [1][58]

Group 1 - Wall Street enters a challenging year-end with optimism after experiencing its best week in nearly six months, reversing one of the worst November performances in over a decade [1] - The S&P 500 index has recorded a double-digit increase year-to-date, driven by the rise of "seven giants" in the tech sector, a strong U.S. economy, and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market's rebound after a 19% decline over seven weeks ending April 9 is seen as a strong signal for investors, with historical patterns suggesting that mid-year double-digit declines often lead to full-year gains [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 87%, as indicated by futures prices, with the labor market becoming the Federal Reserve's primary focus [2] - The Republican tax and spending bill, effective January 1, is expected to increase spending and provide a strong combination of tax cuts and accounting changes, contributing to market optimism [2] - Recent volatility in tech stocks is viewed positively, as companies with clear AI profit paths are being rewarded, while those with weak balance sheets are losing ground [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the second half of December is typically one of the strongest periods for U.S. stocks, with an average return of 1% and approximately 70% of the time showing gains [4] - The market is currently experiencing a shift, with tech stocks giving way to sectors like healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary, indicating a broader market rally [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment among retail investors has turned cautious, with a net bearish sentiment of 42.7%, up from 36.3% at the beginning of the month, reflecting concerns over recent market volatility [5] - Seasonal factors suggest a slightly favorable market outlook at year-end, rewarding those already invested rather than those waiting for perfect entry points [5]