投资要想稳，必须学会"降维打击"！三大关键决定你的长期收益 面对每天海量的市场信息和股价波动，很多投资者感到无所适从。有没有一种方法能化繁为简，大幅提 高投资胜率？答案是：回归基本面投资。它的核心逻辑，就是执行一次关键的"降维"——从无数干扰变 量中，聚焦到三个最本质的决策支柱上。 【收盘播报】A股缩量普涨，消费与海南板块强势领跑！ 12月19日，A股延续修复走势，三大指数集体收红。截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.66%，创业板 指涨0.49%。两市成交额放大至1.75万亿，市场情绪有所回暖。 盘面上，消费板块全线爆发，零售指数大涨3.66%，多只个股涨停。政策利好与旺季预期形成双重驱 动，成为今日最强主线。同时，海南本地股受"全岛封关运作"重大消息刺激，掀起涨停潮，板块指数暴 涨超7%。 值得注意的是，资金出现明显轮动。前期热点科技题材回调，资金转而涌入消费、区域主题等政策受益 方向。市场仍处存量博弈格局，结构性特征显著。展望后市，震荡修复或仍是主基调，建议围绕消费复 苏与确定性政策主线进行布局。 "选择比努力更重要"在投资中同样适用。站上一个长期向上的产业风口，事半功倍。你需要判断，什么 是真正的 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 詹钰叶 近日，鹏扬基金在深圳举办投资者交流与金融文化体验活动。本次活动通过解读财经政策，梳理市场脉络，辨析投资策略，体验特色文化，为投资者奉上了 一道金融大餐。 洞察与思辨——从可为市场到有为市场 本次交流活动聚焦于AH市场投资策略展望。鹏扬基金高级策略分析师、品牌宣传负责人魏枫凌从经济政策解读和金融市场现象出发，为投资者分析国内外 宏观经济形势与资产配置策略，展望"十五五"时期中国经济的发展方向，重点讲解股票市场投资机会。他分析指出，当前市场正处于结构化行情，追逐短期 热点的叙事交易模式面临更大的市场波动，市场风格向有扎实业绩和成长性的基本面投资进行再平衡，扩大内需、科技创新攻坚与应用、建设全国统一大市 场将是决定明年经济和资本市场表现的最重要政策变量。从资产配置角度看，全球主要经济体财政发力驱动经济复苏和通胀结构性抬升；资金流向方面，综 合多种因素表明，全球超配美元资产的模式正在结束，资金青睐于具备估值等性价比优势的中国资产；行业观点则强调，资本市场正从科技一枝独秀过渡至 科技与周期红利共鸣的新格局。 图片均由鹏扬基金提供 在随后的互动问答环节，与会嘉宾就宏观经济走势、跨境投资机 ...

Core Insights - The latest report from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association indicates that the private fund industry has reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan as of October 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Private Fund Scale - As of October 2025, there are 19,367 registered private fund managers managing 137,905 funds with a total scale of 22.05 trillion yuan [2]. - The private securities investment fund sector has shown remarkable growth, with its scale reaching 7.01 trillion yuan for the first time, accounting for over 60% of the new registrations in October [3]. Group 2: Fund Types Growth - In addition to securities funds, private equity and venture capital funds have also seen steady growth, with scales of 11.18 trillion yuan and 3.56 trillion yuan respectively as of October 2025 [3]. Group 3: Stock Fund Positioning - The stock private fund position index reached 81.13% as of November 14, 2025, marking a significant increase and the highest level in nearly 112 weeks [4]. - The proportion of fully invested stock private funds has risen to 65.90%, indicating a shift towards higher investment levels among medium-positioned funds [4]. Group 4: Market Drivers - Key drivers for the increase in private fund positions include the sustained rise in the A-share market since August, positive policy signals for long-term market health, and the trend of asset allocation towards equity markets [5]. - The performance of large private funds, particularly in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, has encouraged concentrated investments to capture structural opportunities [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The market outlook suggests a growing expectation for a long-term bull market in A-shares, driven by a shift in market pricing logic from valuation to fundamentals [7]. - The focus is on sectors with structural growth potential that can maintain profitability without relying on overall economic recovery [7].

Core Insights - The latest report from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association indicates that the private fund industry has reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan as of October 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [1][3]. Private Fund Scale - As of October 2025, there are 19,367 registered private fund managers managing 137,905 funds with a total scale of 22.05 trillion yuan. This includes 7,592 managers of private securities investment funds, 11,594 managers of private equity and venture capital funds, 6 managers of private asset allocation funds, and 175 managers of other private investment funds [2]. Highlights of Growth - The significant growth in private fund scale is attributed to two main factors: 1. The private securities investment fund sector has seen its scale exceed 7 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 7.01 trillion yuan, with new registrations in October amounting to 429.20 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of all new registrations [4]. 2. Other types of funds, including private equity and venture capital funds, have also experienced steady growth, with their scales reaching 11.18 trillion yuan and 3.56 trillion yuan respectively, contributing to the overall increase in private fund scale [4]. Stock Private Fund Positioning - As of November 14, 2025, the stock private fund positioning index has risen to 81.13%, marking a significant increase of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week. This is the highest level in nearly 112 weeks, driven by an increase in the willingness of medium-position private funds to increase their holdings [5]. Factors Driving Increased Positions - The rise in private fund positions is driven by three main factors: 1. The continuous upward trend in the A-share market since August has improved the performance of private fund products, boosting institutional confidence in increasing positions [6]. 2. Ongoing positive signals from policy levels regarding the long-term healthy development of the capital market, alongside a clear trend of residents shifting assets towards equity markets [6]. 3. Large private funds, as industry benchmarks, are more willing to concentrate their investments in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, capturing structural opportunities [6]. Outlook on A-shares - Investment firms like Dongshuiquan express optimism about the future of A-shares, noting the increasing importance of the capital market in wealth allocation and a strategic shift in national policy towards the capital market. Expectations for a long-term bull market in A-shares are growing, with a shift in market pricing logic from valuation-driven to fundamental-driven [7]. Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate that while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen a rebound in valuations, there is no systemic bubble. The capital market may experience temporary disturbances, but a systemic downturn is unlikely. Focus is shifting towards sectors with structural growth potential that can maintain profitability without relying on overall economic recovery [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a collective risk-averse behavior among funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustment Factors - The market adjustment is seen as a result of multiple factors, including concerns over the economic fundamentals and a complex external environment, alongside fluctuations in liquidity expectations for December [2]. - The tightening of overseas liquidity, particularly following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has led to a net outflow of foreign capital, putting pressure on high-valuation technology sectors in A-shares [2]. - Defensive behaviors, such as institutions cashing in on floating profits as the year-end approaches, have contributed to short-term market volatility [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Strategies - Private equity firms have adopted varied strategies in response to the high market positions, with an average stock position of 81.13% among private equity firms, reaching a 112-week high [3]. - Some firms, like Zhiyu Zhi Shan, utilize risk hedging techniques, such as purchasing out-of-the-money put options to protect against extreme drawdowns [4]. - Others, like Yongjin Investment, have adjusted their portfolios to include cyclical stocks while maintaining a balanced approach to technology sectors [4]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, private equity firms maintain confidence in the long-term market, actively seeking new investment opportunities during the adjustment [4][5]. - Firms like Dushuquan emphasize that the current market does not exhibit systemic bubbles, focusing on sectors with structural growth potential that can sustain performance without relying on overall economic recovery [5]. - The adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction within a long-term upward trend, helping to manage leverage levels and optimize market trading structures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of experienced fund managers who can navigate through bull and bear cycles to create long-term returns for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Profile - Hu Song, a veteran fund manager with over 20 years in finance and 14 years of investment experience, is highlighted as a rare example of a value investor in the current A-share market [2]. - Under Hu Song's management, the Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has achieved a return of 75.63% since September 25, 2020, with an annualized return of 11.87%, outperforming its benchmark and peer average [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Guotai Jinsheng Fund, launched at a market low in February 2024, has seen a performance increase of 50.73% this year, surpassing the CSI 300 Index and its benchmark [2][3]. - The Guotai Jinpeng Blue Chip Fund has delivered nearly 60% positive returns over the past three years, ranking in the top 10% among peers, with a maximum drawdown significantly lower than the average [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Hu Song's investment strategy focuses on fundamental analysis, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive advantages and reasonable valuations [4][5]. - The principle of "margin of safety" guides Hu Song's investment decisions, favoring growth stocks that can create long-term value [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Management - Hu Song employs a balanced approach to risk and return, actively managing drawdowns and diversifying across industries to mitigate market volatility [6][9]. - The investment portfolio is dynamically adjusted based on macroeconomic conditions and individual stock performance, ensuring a robust response to market changes [4][9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Hu Song remains optimistic about sectors such as AI, new energy, industrial metals, and technology, citing favorable domestic and international economic conditions [8][9]. - The article notes that despite challenges in the real estate and consumer sectors, there are structural highlights in emerging industries that could present investment opportunities [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of a gold company, highlighting the juxtaposition of falling gold prices and the company's decision to raise capital through a share placement, primarily to stockpile gold, indicating a bullish outlook on future gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - The company plans to raise HKD 2.7 billion through a share placement, with 70% of the funds allocated for gold inventory, which is a higher proportion than in previous placements [1][3]. - The company's inventory has significantly increased from HKD 4.1 billion to HKD 8.7 billion year-on-year, with sales costs reaching HKD 7.6 billion, indicating aggressive expansion [3]. - The share placement price is set at HKD 732.5 per share, while the current market price is below HKD 670, raising concerns about the attractiveness of the placement [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The company faces challenges due to rising gold prices, which have increased the cost of replenishing inventory, leading to a decline in gross margin from 42% to 38% year-on-year [4]. - A recent price increase of 20% for gold products may deter consumers, especially as gold prices are currently falling, potentially impacting sales volume and revenue [4]. - The market is experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with some considering moving from gold investments to the stock market as A-shares break the 4000-point mark for the first time in a decade [4]. Group 3: Financial Health - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of HKD 2.2 billion in the first half of the year, raising concerns about liquidity if the share placement does not succeed [3][4]. - The company is at a critical juncture, needing to monitor the outcomes of the share placement, the impact of price increases on sales, and the overall trend of gold prices to ensure financial stability [4].

Core Viewpoint - Long-termism is essential for the high-quality development of the asset management industry and reflects the core competitiveness of asset management institutions [1][4] Group 1: Investment Research Framework - The company has established a comprehensive research framework covering macro, industry, and individual stocks, integrating stock selection with industry trend analysis [2] - A collaborative mechanism emphasizes teamwork over individual efforts, fostering a "fundamental investment community" for knowledge sharing and capability enhancement [2][3] - The mainstream culture encourages fund managers to objectively assess their performance and continuously improve their research capabilities [2] Group 2: Talent Development and Succession - The company has implemented a "tiered" talent cultivation mechanism to ensure the transmission and innovation of investment research philosophy [3] - Fund managers are encouraged to focus on their areas of expertise to avoid style drift, with a research process that is replicable, iterative, and verifiable [3] - The company promotes both active management and index investment to enhance excess returns through deep fundamental understanding [3] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Focus - The public fund industry is moving away from "scale impulse" and "short-term performance anxiety" towards deeper research and disciplined investment [4] - The company aims to optimize its research processes, improve talent tiers, and strengthen risk control systems while serving national strategies and resource allocation [4] - The commitment to long-termism and research-driven investment remains the foundation for creating sustained value in complex markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of long-termism is essential for the high-quality development of the asset management industry and reflects the core competitiveness of asset management institutions [1][3] Group 1: Investment Research Framework - The company has established a comprehensive research framework covering macro, industry, and individual stock analysis, integrating stock selection with industry trend assessment [1][2] - A systematic research model encourages fund managers to focus on long-term investments in high-quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages, rather than being constrained by short-term market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Collaborative Research Ecosystem - The company emphasizes a collaborative investment research ecosystem that integrates platform, mechanism, and talent, promoting high-frequency interaction, knowledge sharing, and complementary capabilities among fund managers [2] - This ecosystem fosters a culture of self-iteration and self-improvement among fund managers, encouraging them to objectively assess their performance and areas for improvement [2] Group 3: Talent Development and Succession - The company has implemented a "tiered" talent development mechanism to ensure the transmission and evolution of investment research philosophy, providing clear growth paths for fund managers [2] - Fund managers are encouraged to focus on their areas of expertise, avoiding style drift, while the investment research process emphasizes replicability, iterability, and verifiability [2] Group 4: Commitment to Long-termism - The company is advancing both active management and index investment, enhancing active portfolio excess returns through deep fundamental understanding while also providing tool-based products to meet diverse allocation needs [3] - The ongoing reforms in the public fund industry are steering away from "scale impulse" and "short-term performance anxiety," with a focus on deep research, disciplined investment, and team collaboration to create sustained value [3] - The company aims to continuously optimize its investment research processes, improve talent tiers, and strengthen risk control systems to deliver satisfactory long-term results for investors [3]

Core Insights - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses with potential for long-term growth and significant terminal value generation [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding core business economics, including competitive advantages, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The analyst aims to provide accessible and analytical insights to help readers identify high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is fundamentally driven, concentrating on sectors with strong secular growth trends [1] - The focus is on long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation as key metrics for evaluating businesses [1] - The analyst has a decade of self-education in investment, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1]