大家好，欢迎回到《美股笔记》！今天是2025年11月25日周二。 大空头迈克·波瑞也趁机火上浇油，作为在2008年做空次贷危机的他兑现承诺，发布了重磅文章《泡沫的主要迹象：供给侧的暴食》，将矛头直指英伟达， 他把英伟达比作当年为所有人提供'镐子和铲子'的Cisco，认为其同样背负着宏大的市场愿景。但盈利不等于安全，他用1999年互联网泡沫类比：当时也有盈 利强的"四骑士"（微软、英特尔、戴尔、Cisco）主导市场，不是那些小网站在撑场面。他从历史、高利润公司角色、会计折旧问题、供给侧扩张担忧，提 供了一个说服力强的框架，试图证明我们正处于另一个巨大的泡沫中。 美股的反弹势头仍在延续，尽管三大股指集体收涨，但科技股内部却暗流汹涌，一场关于AI芯片主导权的战争已悄然打响。 | 首页 | 概念板块 | 财报日历 | 新股中心 | 机构追踪 | 财经日历 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | | | | 标普500指数 | | | 4711 ...

Core Insights - The recent interactions between Trump and Nvidia's Jensen Huang highlight the intersection of corporate competition and national strategic positioning [1][3] - Nvidia's market capitalization surged by $240 billion following Huang's performance forecast, indicating significant market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors [1] - Huang's warning about U.S. policies reflects the urgent need for the U.S. to reconsider its approach to chip exports to China, as the AI competition extends beyond products to ecosystem dominance [3][5] Industry Dynamics - The U.S. technology sector is facing unprecedented challenges as China emerges as a key player in the global chip market, leading to a decline in Nvidia's market share [3][5] - Huang emphasizes the importance of building a robust ecosystem for AI, akin to establishing a comprehensive coffee culture for a coffee shop, to ensure long-term user engagement and market leadership [3] - The rise of China's self-developed chips poses a significant threat to Nvidia, potentially disrupting the U.S. technological supremacy in the AI landscape [5] Geopolitical Trends - The AI landscape is shifting towards a "de-Americanized" model, with countries like China, India, Southeast Asia, and the UAE rapidly developing their AI infrastructure [5][6] - U.S. strategies of trade barriers and export controls may backfire, as they could inadvertently weaken its technological advantage in the long run [5][6] - Huang's remarks at Nvidia's developer conference serve as a cautionary note for U.S. policymakers to focus on long-term ecological strategies rather than short-term market gains [5][6] Future Outlook - The next decade will see intensified competition in AI development, necessitating collaboration and dialogue among nations to navigate the evolving technological landscape [6][8] - The actions of China, Nvidia, and U.S. government policies will collectively shape a new global balance in the AI sector [8] - Huang's perspective underscores that the future of AI is not solely about technology but also about comprehensive ecosystem competition, urging nations to avoid shortsighted decisions that could diminish their global influence [8]

说出来可能有些"凡尔赛"，但英伟达如今正面临着其大多数竞争对手梦寐以求的"烦恼"：这家人工智能 芯片巨头手头的资金过于充裕。 过去几天，英伟达登上媒体头条并非因其芯片销量暴增，而是其频繁开出的巨额支票： 上周末，英伟达宣布向陷入困境的芯片制造商英特尔入股50亿美元。周一又有消息称，英伟 达计划在未来数年内向OpenAI投入高达1000亿美元…… 考虑到三年前英伟达的年自由现金流仅略超60亿美元，投向OpenAI的1000亿美元数字看起来无疑显得 尤为惊人。然而，近年来全球人工智能热潮及其引发的军备竞赛，不仅使英伟达成为全球市值最高的企 业，也确实正使其跻身资金最雄厚的公司之列！ 英伟达幸福的烦恼：钱多的溢出来了 FactSet的数据显示，英伟达过去四个财季累计创造了多达720亿美元自由现金流，本财年末有望突破 1000亿美元大关。 这一数字有多夸张？最直观的一组对比是：这已超过除苹果之外所有科技巨头今年的预期自由现金流总 和。 然而，如何有效运用巨额资金绝非易事…… 过去四个季度，英伟达已斥资近500亿美元回购自家股票，近期又将回购计划规模扩大了600亿美元。 与此同时，尽管英伟达过去两年的研发支出已翻倍，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding NVIDIA's H20 AI chip, which is perceived to potentially contain backdoor features that could compromise security, particularly in the Chinese market. The CEO, Jensen Huang, faces the challenge of proving the chip's safety while navigating complex geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China [1][4][6]. Group 1: Chip Performance and Market Impact - The H20 chip's performance is only about 20% of NVIDIA's flagship H100, leading to it being referred to as a "crippled version," yet it is still allowed to enter the Chinese market [6][19]. - China contributes significantly to NVIDIA's revenue, accounting for 22% of its global income, which amounts to $17.1 billion, with a growth rate of 66% [6][19]. - Following the controversy, NVIDIA's revenue in China plummeted by 42%, while orders for Huawei's Ascend chips surged by 300% [19]. Group 2: Regulatory and Geopolitical Tensions - The Chinese government raised concerns about the H20 chip potentially having tracking and remote shutdown capabilities, demanding technical proof from NVIDIA within 48 hours [6][11]. - U.S. legislation requires regulated chips to include location verification and remote shutdown features, raising suspicions about the H20 chip's design [9][11]. - Jensen Huang's visit to Washington resulted in a deal where NVIDIA committed to a $50 billion investment in the U.S. in exchange for expedited export approval for the H20 chip [17]. Group 3: Trust and Market Dynamics - Chinese companies, including Baidu and iFlytek, have halted H20 chip purchases and are exploring domestic alternatives, indicating a rapid shift in market dynamics [18][19]. - The share of domestic chips in AI computing procurement is projected to rise from 5% in 2022 to 40% by 2025, while NVIDIA's market share in China is expected to drop from 95% to 50% [21]. - The article emphasizes that trust is the most critical factor in the chip market, suggesting that even high-performance chips cannot restore confidence once it is lost [22].