有机硅行业交流及展望 20251126 摘要 2025 年 11 月，鲁西化工牵头行业协调会议，旨在通过限产缓解有机硅 单体产能过剩问题，初步决定 12 月 1 日起限产 30%，并可能根据市场 情况调整至 20%，同时设定价格上限为 15,000 元，通过流量计监控生 产，核查小组定期检查。 有机硅行业内公司成本差异显著，多数公司含税成本约 11,000 元/吨， 恒盛硅业因能源优势成本低于 10,000 元/吨，部分国企成本高达 13,000 元/吨，12,000 元/吨售价对部分企业仍可能亏损。 有机硅技术成熟，但为避免新资本涌入导致供需失衡，会议强调控制价 格上涨幅度以维持市场稳定，且行业内企业达成共识，未来三至五年内 不进行大规模扩建。 全球有机硅行业开工率普遍在 75%-85%之间，欧洲因能源成本高企开 工率下降，美国陶瓷计划 2026 年关闭英国工厂，该工厂占全球约 5.2%的市场份额，国外整体开工率不到 80%。 国内 DMC（甲基氯化物）2025 年实际增速为 4.2%，远低于去年的 16.7%，主要受出口影响，并非市场普遍认为的 15%高速增长。 Q&A 近期有机硅行业会议的背景和主要内容 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Hualu Hengsheng Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is facing challenges of capacity expansion and weak demand, leading to inventory accumulation and price declines, resulting in poor overall profitability [2][5] - New capacity pressure in products like urea is significant, necessitating attention to potential adjustments in macro policies regarding capacity control [2][5] - The acetic acid market benefits from strong downstream PTA and EVA export demand, with future development dependent on changes in overseas demand and external factors like US interest rate cuts [2][8] - The DMF industry operates at low utilization rates, with no new capacity expected, and leading companies are likely to shift production towards more profitable products like dimethylamine [2][9] - The oxalic acid market is performing well, driven by recovery in traditional sectors and increased demand from new energy and electronics industries [2][10] Key Points on Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng, as a leading enterprise, benefits from a diversified downstream product portfolio and may gain from anti-involution policies [2][6] - In the urea sector, if supply is constrained while demand remains strong, the supply-demand relationship will improve [2][6] - The company maintains stable profits despite industry losses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][8][16] - Hualu Hengsheng's cash flow is robust, and its valuation is at historical lows, providing potential for excess returns during PPI upturns [3][16] - The company is undergoing upgrades to its synthesis platform and expanding its Jingzhou base, which will enhance its bottom-line profits [3][16][18] Market Dynamics - The coal chemical industry is currently in a phase of poor profitability, with many products struggling to maintain margins [5][15] - Urea production is expected to see an increase of 10 million tons by 2026, while domestic demand is around 70 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure [5] - The acetic acid market is at the bottom of the cycle but has good demand, particularly from exports [8] - The DMF industry is characterized by low operating rates and a lack of new capacity, leading to a micro-profit environment [9] - The oxalic acid market is optimistic, with expected double-digit growth driven by new energy and electronic sectors [10][11] Future Outlook - The coal chemical industry is expected to approach the end of its capacity expansion phase by early 2026, with potential turning points in late 2026 or 2027 [3][12] - Hualu Hengsheng's bottom-line profit is projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by the end of 2026 or early 2027, bolstered by ongoing capacity expansions and efficiency improvements [19] - The overall investment value in the coal chemical sector is currently low, but with clear bottom prices and profits, there is potential for recovery as external conditions improve [22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, particularly addressing the issue of "anti-involution" and the need for policy changes to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [1][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasizes the need to govern low-price disorderly competition, indicating potential policy changes aimed at improving product quality and promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1][3]. - Historical cases show that industry self-discipline (e.g., in the potassium fertilizer and dye industries) and capacity clearance (e.g., in TMA and soda ash industries) are effective ways to combat market involution, significantly boosting product prices and related company stock prices [1][4][5]. - Environmental and energy consumption policies have a significant impact on chemical production, with examples such as the refrigerant quota system leading to substantial price increases for R32 and R134A, benefiting related listed companies [1][6]. - The chromium salt industry has seen a reduction in the number of companies due to environmental restrictions, leading to increased industry concentration and rising profit margins for leading companies like Zhenhua [1][7]. - The DMF market has experienced a supply contraction due to major producers halting production, resulting in significant price increases and improved performance for related companies [1][8]. - Glyphosate prices are highly sensitive to supply-side disruptions, with environmental inspections and adverse weather conditions causing significant price fluctuations, impacting the performance of related companies [1][10]. Additional Important Content - The chemical industry is expected to experience a supply-demand resonance by 2026, with anticipated benefits from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts favoring exports, while foreign capital exit and domestic capital expenditure slowdown will lead to supply reductions [2][16]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sub-industries that have been in prolonged downturns and may see supply reductions and quality improvements, such as PVC in the real estate chain and spandex in the textile chain [15][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on industries identified for elimination and restriction by the National Development and Reform Commission, as these are likely to be influenced by policy changes [16]. - The chemical industry is seen as a key area for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with various policies aimed at promoting green transformation [11][12]. - The report suggests that 2025 will be a foundational year for policy implementation, with 2026 expected to be a year of policy execution, leading to potential capacity exits or reductions that could improve supply-demand relationships [16]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested sub-industries for investment include organic silicon, glyphosate, and industrial silicon, as well as companies like Xingfa Group and Xinfengming [16][17]. - The refrigerant industry is highlighted as a successful case of self-discipline under political constraints, with significant price increases and profit improvements for companies like Juhua and Sanmei [17]. - The report advises early positioning in the market to capitalize on upcoming investment opportunities before prices rise significantly [16].