1月28日早盘，受产业链涨价潮蔓延提振，存储芯片概念反复走强，核心受益板块半导体设备板块逆势拉升。热门半导体设备ETF（561980）盘中拉涨 1.61%，权重股中微公司、中芯国际涨超2%，拓荆科技涨超5%，康强电子二度封板，金海通、盛美上海、神工股份等多股走强。 半导体设备ETF（561980）跟踪中证半导，重仓中微公司、北方华创等设备龙头以及晶圆厂龙头中芯国际，芯片设计龙头海光信息、寒武纪和材料龙头南大 光电等，前十大集中度约75%，在同类指数中位居前列。 资金面数据显示，半导体设备ETF（561980）最近10个交易日累计获资金净流入超4.6亿元，最新规模超36亿。标的指数中证半导2025年至今最大涨幅超 112%，在科创芯片、半导体材料设备等同类指数中位居第一，弹性突出。 消息面上，多家芯片设计公司最新发布涨价函通知，确认产业链景气传导全面蔓延。 中微半导1月27日宣布，受封装交付周期拉长、框架及封测费用上涨影响，对MCU（微控制器）、Nor Flash（闪存）等产品提价15%-50%，直接反映了半导 体制造后道环节的成本压力已传导至芯片设计公司。 国科微同日宣布，因存储芯片供应紧张、成本上升及基板等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a rebound in trading activity, with transaction volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong internal confidence and capital inflow amidst domestic asset scarcity and expectations of RMB appreciation [1][29]. Market Structure and Trends - The market structure has shifted compared to late last year and early this year, with increased activity in the real estate chain, resource products, and price increase chains, reflecting the inflow of medium to low-risk preference capital [1][6][39]. - Recent signals of expanding domestic demand policies have emerged, with expectations of policy enhancements, particularly in real estate prices, infrastructure investment, and service consumption, which are key areas of focus for medium to low-risk preference capital [1][39]. - The expansion of cyclical stocks indicates rising market confidence in re-inflation, with performance spreading from non-ferrous metals to chemicals, building materials, and coal, suggesting strong confidence in the PPI recovery trend this year [1][11][42]. Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing significant gains of 4.34% and 4.04% respectively, indicating increased participation and liquidity support for small-cap stocks [5][35]. - The real estate chain and cyclical resource products have benefited from warming policy expectations and re-inflation, with recent policy announcements aimed at reversing funding dilemmas in the real estate sector [39][42]. - The communication sector has faced declines, raising concerns about the sustainability of previously favored stocks, as institutional holdings in this sector have not consistently yielded excess returns [19][44]. Investment Focus - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, computing, media, chemicals, and military industries, with themes such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, robotics, controllable nuclear fusion, intelligent driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals being highlighted [31][37]. - The price increase chain remains a significant investment focus, particularly in areas experiencing supply-demand mismatches, such as AI hardware and upstream raw materials like lithium carbonate and PTA [20][21][23].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher on December 4, with the ChiNext index showing a significant rebound after an adjustment, while the Shenzhen Component and Shanghai Composite indices followed suit [1] - By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3879.52 points, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of approximately 408.1 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13000.88 points, up 0.35%, with a trading volume of about 624 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3059.76 points, up 0.76%, with a trading volume of around 280 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - At the opening, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and PEEK materials were among the top gainers, while communication equipment, cultivated diamonds, and Hainan Free Trade Zone sectors faced declines [1] - By midday, the humanoid robot industry chain stocks showed significant gains, with other sectors like reducers, exoskeleton robots, PEEK materials, and industrial mother machines also experiencing notable increases [1] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the market has entered a "seller's market" by Q4 2025, with a steep upward trend expected in mainstream storage DRAM/NAND and niche storage prices, anticipating a supply-demand imbalance to persist until the end of 2026 [2] - China International Capital Corporation highlights the inclusion of controllable nuclear fusion in the national future industrial system, marking a shift towards strategic technological breakthroughs, with a focus on superconducting cables, lasers, and monitoring systems as investment opportunities [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes a significant increase in storage investment enthusiasm, with planned projects in Inner Mongolia expected to double compared to this year, driven by high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] Industry Developments - The unveiling of the Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Cluster on December 4 aims to establish Shanghai as a global hub for satellite internet, with over 50 upstream and downstream enterprises gathered, projecting an industry scale exceeding 20 billion yuan by 2024 [3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency held its first AI and Nuclear Energy seminar, discussing how nuclear energy can meet the growing power demands of AI data centers and the integration of AI in nuclear technology development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since Q2 2025, the mainstream storage prices have experienced significant absolute increases due to "supply optimization and AI-driven demand" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market has fully transitioned into a "seller's market" by Q4 2025, with steep price increases observed [1] - Despite the current seller's market, the industry is still in the early stages of a super cycle, suggesting continued growth potential [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - High visibility of shortages is expected over the next six months, supporting a positive outlook for mainstream storage DRAM/NAND and niche storage prices in the first half of 2026 [1] - Contract prices are anticipated to rise rapidly, aiming to catch up with the increases in spot prices, indicating sustained demand exceeding supply at least until the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite entering a "seller's market" in Q4 2025, the industry is still in the early stages of a super cycle, with high visibility of shortages in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main storage segments, including DRAM and NAND, are expected to see price increases in the first half of 2026 [1] - Contract prices are anticipated to rise rapidly, catching up with the increases in spot prices [1] - The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance that will last at least until the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The current cycle's prosperity is viewed optimistically, suggesting a sustained period of growth in the storage market [1]