1月28日早盘，受产业链涨价潮蔓延提振，存储芯片概念反复走强，核心受益板块半导体设备板块逆势拉升。热门半导体设备ETF（561980）盘中拉涨 1.61%，权重股中微公司、中芯国际涨超2%，拓荆科技涨超5%，康强电子二度封板，金海通、盛美上海、神工股份等多股走强。 半导体设备ETF（561980）跟踪中证半导，重仓中微公司、北方华创等设备龙头以及晶圆厂龙头中芯国际，芯片设计龙头海光信息、寒武纪和材料龙头南大 光电等，前十大集中度约75%，在同类指数中位居前列。 资金面数据显示，半导体设备ETF（561980）最近10个交易日累计获资金净流入超4.6亿元，最新规模超36亿。标的指数中证半导2025年至今最大涨幅超 112%，在科创芯片、半导体材料设备等同类指数中位居第一，弹性突出。 消息面上，多家芯片设计公司最新发布涨价函通知，确认产业链景气传导全面蔓延。 中微半导1月27日宣布，受封装交付周期拉长、框架及封测费用上涨影响，对MCU（微控制器）、Nor Flash（闪存）等产品提价15%-50%，直接反映了半导 体制造后道环节的成本压力已传导至芯片设计公司。 国科微同日宣布，因存储芯片供应紧张、成本上升及基板等 ...

来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 本周A股交易热度回升，强势行情延续，成交量重回3万亿以上。这显示市场内生信心与承接力较强， 且伴随着国内资产荒与人民币升值预期等背景下，增量资金不断流入。 结构上看，中小盘与主题投资依然是春季行情活跃方向，但从本周行业表现看，和去年底今年初行情不 同的是，市场结构也出现了一些变化，地产链、资源品及涨价链都有扩散表现，显示中低风险偏好增量 资金也在流入，同时，值得讨论和注意的有： 1）近期出现了一些扩内需政策的表态信号，而市场反应显示其预期政策有一定加码概率。地产价格、 基建投资和服务消费是扩内需的重要抓手，而这些方向中的龙头公司重估机会可能是中低风险偏好增量 资金的关注重点。 2）周期股扩散演绎也显示市场对于再通胀的信心上升。市场不但是从有色扩散到了化工，建材乃至钢 铁煤炭也都有所表现，显示市场对于今年PPI回升趋势的信心强烈，但消费股反应依然偏弱，今年的扩 内需与反内卷政策进度力度以及上中下游盈利结构的变化值得关注。 3）通信25Q4机构持仓占比较Q3进一步提升，属于一致预期较强方向，但市场处于牛市扩散期，资金认 为AI应用等产业机会增加，而前期筹码集中方向市场研究深度则相对到位， ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher on December 4, with the ChiNext index showing a significant rebound after an adjustment, while the Shenzhen Component and Shanghai Composite indices followed suit [1] - By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3879.52 points, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of approximately 408.1 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13000.88 points, up 0.35%, with a trading volume of about 624 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3059.76 points, up 0.76%, with a trading volume of around 280 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - At the opening, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and PEEK materials were among the top gainers, while communication equipment, cultivated diamonds, and Hainan Free Trade Zone sectors faced declines [1] - By midday, the humanoid robot industry chain stocks showed significant gains, with other sectors like reducers, exoskeleton robots, PEEK materials, and industrial mother machines also experiencing notable increases [1] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the market has entered a "seller's market" by Q4 2025, with a steep upward trend expected in mainstream storage DRAM/NAND and niche storage prices, anticipating a supply-demand imbalance to persist until the end of 2026 [2] - China International Capital Corporation highlights the inclusion of controllable nuclear fusion in the national future industrial system, marking a shift towards strategic technological breakthroughs, with a focus on superconducting cables, lasers, and monitoring systems as investment opportunities [2] - CITIC Construction Investment notes a significant increase in storage investment enthusiasm, with planned projects in Inner Mongolia expected to double compared to this year, driven by high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] Industry Developments - The unveiling of the Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Cluster on December 4 aims to establish Shanghai as a global hub for satellite internet, with over 50 upstream and downstream enterprises gathered, projecting an industry scale exceeding 20 billion yuan by 2024 [3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency held its first AI and Nuclear Energy seminar, discussing how nuclear energy can meet the growing power demands of AI data centers and the integration of AI in nuclear technology development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since Q2 2025, the mainstream storage prices have experienced significant absolute increases due to "supply optimization and AI-driven demand" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market has fully transitioned into a "seller's market" by Q4 2025, with steep price increases observed [1] - Despite the current seller's market, the industry is still in the early stages of a super cycle, suggesting continued growth potential [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - High visibility of shortages is expected over the next six months, supporting a positive outlook for mainstream storage DRAM/NAND and niche storage prices in the first half of 2026 [1] - Contract prices are anticipated to rise rapidly, aiming to catch up with the increases in spot prices, indicating sustained demand exceeding supply at least until the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite entering a "seller's market" in Q4 2025, the industry is still in the early stages of a super cycle, with high visibility of shortages in the next six months [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main storage segments, including DRAM and NAND, are expected to see price increases in the first half of 2026 [1] - Contract prices are anticipated to rise rapidly, catching up with the increases in spot prices [1] - The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance that will last at least until the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The current cycle's prosperity is viewed optimistically, suggesting a sustained period of growth in the storage market [1]