目前DDR4报价有效期已缩短至不到一个月，代表价格可能在数周内再次上调。 DDR3涨势更强，第四季有望出现高双位数涨幅。 针对NOR Flash，维持第四季上涨5-10%预期。 随着AirPods等物联网产品与服务器需求潜在增长，NOR供应缺口将从低个位数扩大至中个位数。 闪德资讯获悉，据摩根士丹利报告指出，随着主流存储市场转强，DDR4和DDR3在第四季度将有更大涨价空间，传统型 NAND与NOR存储价格稳定迹象逐渐增强，并有望延续至2026年。 DRAM部分，存储供应商已停止向企业客户提供报价，意味价格仍有上行空间。 并将美光上调至"优于大盘"，目前参与内存上行周期仍不晚。 至于NAND，闪迪已与力积电接洽，讨论未来可能的产能支持，但认为合作机率偏低。 预期未来三季，DDR4供应短缺比例将达10-15%，后段制程瓶颈可能进一步加剧这一情况，因此部分DDR4合约价在第四 季可能翻倍。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 预期到2026年，AirPods将占全球NOR需求5–10%，因每副AirPods需使用三颗高密度NOR Flash芯片，意味NOR涨价趋势可 望延续至2026年。 ...

| 地点 | 深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道听海大道 5059 号鸿荣源前 | | --- | --- | | | 海金融中心二期 座 B 2301 | | 上市公司接待人 | 副总经理、董事会秘书 许刚翎 | | | 投资者关系经理 黄琦 | | 员姓名 | 投资者关系资深主管 苏阳春 | | | 1、如何展望存储价格的涨幅弹性？ | | | 答：根据第三方媒体报道，9 月以来，继闪迪公开宣布 | | | 涨价之后，美光向渠道通知存储产品即将上涨 20%-30%，三 | | | 星通知大客户 LPDDR4X、LPDDR5/5X 协议价格预计上涨 | | | 15%-30%以上，eMMC/UFS 协议价格预计涨幅 5%-10% | | | 根据 CFM 闪存市场预测，全球 AI 服务器市场新增 DRAM | | | 和 NAND 备货需求下半年相继涌现，进一步带动原厂产能供 | | | 应向高性能服务器存储产品倾斜，在超预期的服务器存储新 | | | 增需求带动下，原厂全面转向以利润指标为核心的供应策 | | | 略，四季度存储市场价格将迎来全面上涨。 | | 投资者关系活动 | 2、如何看待公司企业级产品导入 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Forecasts - Micron has announced a price increase of 20%-30% for storage products, while Samsung expects a 15%-30% increase for DRAM products and a 5%-10% increase for NAND products in Q4 [3] - The NAND market is anticipated to see increased demand due to the expansion of AI server shipments and new smartphone releases, leading to a comprehensive price rise in the storage market [3] Group 2: Company Product Performance and Recognition - The company ranks third in total capacity for enterprise-grade SATA SSDs in China, and first among domestic brands, according to IDC data for 2024 [3] - The company’s enterprise-grade PCIe SSD and RDIMM products have begun mass adoption by leading domestic enterprises [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Product Development - The company has launched SOCAMM2, a memory product designed for AI data centers, which offers significant improvements in bandwidth and energy efficiency [3] - The company’s self-developed main control chips have achieved over 80 million units in deployment by the end of July, with ongoing rapid growth in deployment scale [4] Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Edge - The company’s UFS4.1 products are recognized for their superior performance in terms of process, read/write speed, and stability compared to mainstream products [4] - The transition from eMMC to UFS in the embedded storage market presents significant opportunities for the company, as the market is currently concentrated and expanding [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in Q2 2025, driven by its automotive and IoT businesses, despite challenges in the smartphone segment due to rising storage prices [1][3]. Automotive Business - The company anticipates approximately 81,000 vehicle shipments in Q2 2025, generating revenue of 20.4 billion RMB, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment is expected to improve by 0.5 percentage points to 23.7% as production ramps up [2]. - The company projects total vehicle sales of 436,000 units for the full year 2025, benefiting from economies of scale [2]. - The recent government initiatives to promote high-quality development in the electric vehicle sector are expected to enhance long-term profitability for industry participants [2]. Smartphone, IoT, and Internet Business - The company's smartphone shipments in China are projected to reach approximately 10.4 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and an increase in market share from 14.1% to 15.1% [3]. - Smartphone revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with gross margin potentially declining by 0.9 percentage points to 11.5% due to rising storage costs [3]. - The IoT business is forecasted to grow by 37% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with gross margin expected to remain above 22% [3]. - Internet business revenue is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year, maintaining a strong gross margin of around 75% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 0.9%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively, and net profit forecasts down by 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.5% to 40.45 billion, 50.47 billion, and 62.29 billion RMB [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 67.8 HKD, down from 71.2 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a 40 times PE ratio for 2025 [3].

Group 1 - UBS expects the US stock market to decline in August due to worsening economic data, which may present a buying opportunity [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [2] - Deutsche Bank suggests that the sentiment for Fed rate cuts may continue to rise, especially after disappointing labor market reports [2] Group 2 - Dutch International Bank analysts indicate that OPEC+ may end its production increase as summer demand wanes and inventories rise [3] - Barclays forecasts that the European Central Bank will cut rates once more, with a 25 basis point reduction expected in December [4] - Barclays also notes that credit rating improvements in peripheral Eurozone countries are helping to narrow government bond yield spreads [4] Group 3 - MUFG analysts highlight that traders are concerned about potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports by the US, which could impact supply amid rising OPEC+ production [5] - Citic Securities believes the Chinese liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies adjusting channel structures for better market opportunities [7] - Citic Securities also anticipates a comprehensive price increase for mainstream and niche storage products in Q3, driven by seasonal demand [8] Group 4 - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the commercial real estate sector under a value reassessment logic, particularly for operators with strong shopping center assets [9] - GF Securities sees significant potential in the STAR Market, driven by regulatory liquidity and the potential for capital inflows [10] - China International Capital Corporation notes that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will continue to accelerate, enhancing food security [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that mainstream and niche storage prices are expected to rise comprehensively by Q3 2025, supported by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics, leading to positive performance for storage manufacturers [1] - DDR4 prices are increasing, and the pricing logic for NOR Flash is also positive, with a strong recommendation for leading storage chip design companies, as well as a suggestion to pay attention to storage module distributors [1] - Some DDR4 prices have surged past DDR5 prices, and as original manufacturers gradually exit the DDR4 market, the penetration rate of DDR5 is expected to accelerate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates an expected comprehensive price increase for mainstream and niche storage products in Q3 2025, driven by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics, leading to a positive outlook for storage manufacturers in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - DDR4 and NOR Flash prices are anticipated to rise, prompting a recommendation for leading storage chip design companies [1] - Some DDR4 prices have surged past DDR5 prices, and with original manufacturers gradually exiting the DDR4 market, the penetration rate of DDR5 is expected to accelerate [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Focus on storage chip design leaders is advised, along with attention to storage module distributors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the price increase of DDR4 memory has exceeded expectations, and this upward trend is expected to continue into Q3 2025 [1] - According to the report, mainstream storage and niche DRAM prices have risen in Q2 2025, leading to a projected revenue growth for major storage manufacturers on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1] - The report anticipates that storage module manufacturers will reach a profitability turning point in Q2 2025 [1] - It is expected that storage prices will maintain a quarter-over-quarter growth trend in Q3 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [30]. Core Insights - The storage market has experienced a significant price increase since May, driven by supply-side concentration and recovering downstream demand. Major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron collectively hold about 95% market share, which enhances their pricing power [3][8]. - The price of DDR4 16GB has risen over 100% from its February low, while DDR5 16GB has increased by over 25%, reaching new highs for 2024 [3][4]. - The recovery in demand for storage is supported by the resurgence in applications such as mobile phones, PCs, servers, and automotive sectors, with notable increases in memory usage per device [12][17]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Starting from March to April, storage manufacturers like Scandisk initiated price hikes, followed by significant price increases from Samsung and SK Hynix in May. Samsung raised DDR4 prices by approximately 20% and DDR5 by about 5%, while SK Hynix increased DRAM prices by 12% [3][4]. - As of late May, the storage chip market has seen accelerated price increases, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices reaching new highs compared to earlier in the year [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The storage price increase is primarily driven by a highly concentrated supply market and recovering demand from key applications. The production of computers in China is expected to grow by over 10% in 2024, with a strong growth rate continuing in early 2025 [12][16]. - Despite a negative growth in mobile phone production from January to May, the sales value has increased by over 25%, indicating a potential recovery in production demand in the latter half of the year [16][20]. Application Trends - There is a notable increase in single-device storage usage across major applications in 2025. For instance, the memory in smartphones has increased from 8-12GB to 12-16GB, while server memory has risen from 80GB to 384GB [17][21]. - In the automotive sector, new models are showing significantly higher memory usage, with examples like the Xiaopeng G7 series featuring 216GB of memory, which is 8-10 times higher than typical vehicles in the same price range [21][22]. Company Performance Outlook - A-share listed storage companies, primarily engaged in module production and distribution, are expected to see significant performance improvements due to the rising storage prices. The price increases in the current cycle are anticipated to exceed those seen in early 2024, leading to more pronounced improvements in company performance [24][26].