智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，当前汽车板块处于淡季弱势表现，但结构性看反内卷及出海 预期改善，自动驾驶政策催化落地，人形机器人特斯拉V3样机展示惊艳。该行维持前期观点，26年汽 车以旧换新政策支撑内需，商用车或更为受益;结构性看多端侧AI(无人驾驶及机器人)商业化0-1突破带 来估值弹性，关注反内卷下经销商环节周期底部困境反转。 中信建投主要观点如下： 整车板块 景气延续"弱预期、弱现实"，反内卷持续推进，出口预期改善。本周乘联会披露26年1月1-11日国内乘 用车批发及零售销量同比分别-40%、-32%，其中新能源同比分别-30%、-38%，淡季景气承压，但市场 预期或已钝化。1月14日，工信部、发改委、市场监管局三部门召开新能源汽车行业企业座谈会，部署 规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序相关工作，坚决抵制无序"价格战"，看好后市场经销商新车销售有望盈利 改善。此外，1月12日商务部通报中欧电动汽车案磋商进展，拟向对欧盟出口纯电动汽车的中国出口 商，提供关于价格承诺的通用指导;1月16日正在中国访问的加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大将以优惠关税 税率进口4.9万辆中国电动汽车(税率将从100%降至6.1%)。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the smart electric vehicle (EV) sector is undergoing significant transformation, with a strong emphasis on the globalization of components and the rise of autonomous driving technologies, which are expected to enhance market penetration by 2026 [1][2] - The smart electric vehicle ETF, TaiKang (159720), has shown a 1.25% increase, tracking the CSI Smart Electric Vehicle Index, which rose by 1.17%, indicating strong performance among key component stocks [1] - The report highlights that the automotive chip sector is becoming a critical technological barrier, with ongoing domestic replacement strategies and rapid growth in the new energy vehicle market supporting the automotive parts industry [2] Group 2 - The ETF covers key aspects of smart driving, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 58%, allowing investors to mitigate individual stock volatility while benefiting from overall industry growth [3] - The industry is expected to experience a positive cycle driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and scale expansion, positioning the smart car ETF as a long-term beneficiary [3] - The report anticipates that by 2025, the trend of intelligent driving will solidify, with significant advancements in high-level autonomous driving technologies and increased market penetration expected by 2026 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the transformation of the automotive industry through smart electric vehicles, emphasizing the long-term potential of the parts sector driven by globalization and the rise of autonomous and new energy vehicle manufacturers [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2026, the demand for smart and globalized humanoid robots is expected to flourish, with a projected wholesale volume of 30.3 million vehicles in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [1] - The automotive parts sector's revenue is anticipated to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, driven by an increase in the share of domestic brands and the impact of vehicle replacement policies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The competitive landscape is being reshaped by the smart electric transformation, with a focus on high-quality customers such as domestic brands and new energy vehicle manufacturers [2] Group 3: Customer Dimension - Domestic manufacturers like Geely and BYD, along with new entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi, are expected to lead in sales growth, while the overseas market is set to benefit from the expansion of Chinese automotive parts in North America and Europe [3] Group 4: Product Dimension - The trend of smart driving is accelerating, with significant advancements expected in 2026 as high-level autonomous driving technology becomes more accessible to the mass market [4] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for mass production in 2026, driven by AI advancements and the entry of major automotive manufacturers into the market, with a focus on core assets in the supply chain [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and total production and sales for next year, leading to a diminished cyclical attribute of the automotive sector. The core focus is on technological attributes and emerging growth directions [1][2]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is experiencing a revaluation of its technological attributes, with a focus on structural growth. The strong performance of stocks like XPeng Motors and Weichai Power is noted, driven by XPeng's recent technology day showcasing advancements such as the second-generation VLA model, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Iron, which have boosted market expectations [1][2]. - The automotive and robotics sectors are positioned as core applications of physical AI, with potential to catalyze a turning point in industry trends as technologies from Tesla, such as FSD V14 and Optimus, are set to be launched and mass-produced in 2026 [1][2]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector has seen a continuous pullback since the fourth quarter, with some quality stocks entering a bottoming configuration. The industry is on the verge of significant advancements, and the current pullback is attributed to previous substantial gains and a temporary lack of catalysts [3]. - Market focus is on the upcoming Q1 2024 release of Tesla's third-generation Optimus prototype and the progress of the supply chain's fixed-point contracting [3]. Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector shows stable weekly insurance sales, with new models like XPeng's extended-range platform and the Xingtu ET5 demonstrating strong cost-performance ratios. However, market reactions are muted due to expectations of weaker total sales next year, with structural growth remaining in high-end and overseas markets [4]. - The lithium battery and materials segments are benefiting from a surge in demand for energy storage, leading to price increases in sectors like 6F, reinforcing a logic of rising volume and price [4]. Commercial Vehicle Sector - The commercial vehicle sector is performing well as a high-quality, undervalued asset, with expectations for steady growth in overseas markets, particularly in buses and motorcycles, which show higher growth elasticity [5]. - The heavy-duty engine supply chain is benefiting from the ramp-up of AIDC, with leading companies like Weichai Power expected to see a revaluation of their stock [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the convergence of Robotaxi technology with passenger vehicles, indicating that Waymo is developing its VLA/world model based on Gemini, while Tesla's FSDV13 shows a significant gap in performance compared to Waymo [1][2] - In high purchasing power markets, the willingness to pay for Robotaxi services is stronger than for traditional ride-hailing services, with Waymo users prioritizing safety and showing lower price sensitivity [2] - Domestic markets may still view Robotaxi as a substitute for traditional taxis, while in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and North America, there is potential for high-end demand for Robotaxi services [2] Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the domestic To-B solutions, such as RoboTruck, RoboVan, RoboBus, and Robosweeper, may see faster commercialization compared to To-C Robotaxi due to the clear cost-reduction needs of businesses [2] - Companies that could benefit from the overseas Robotaxi market and the acceleration of domestic To-B solutions include WeRide, Pony.ai, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Jingwei Hirain, and Desay SV [3] Technical Developments - The report emphasizes the need to monitor Tesla's V14 version experience and the performance of Robotaxi operations after removing safety drivers and opening to the public, as this could significantly impact the competitive landscape [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The willingness to pay for Robotaxi services in high-income markets is stronger than for traditional ride-hailing services. Waymo's pricing is higher than Uber and Lyft, with users prioritizing safety over cost [4][7] - Domestic markets may still view Robotaxi as a substitute for traditional taxis, while in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and North America, Robotaxi is seen as a premium service [4][7] - Technological advancements in Robotaxi are converging with passenger vehicles, but significant gaps remain in performance metrics compared to leading companies like Waymo [4][25][26] - The domestic To-B solutions, such as RoboTruck and RoboVan, may see faster commercialization compared to To-C Robotaxi due to clearer demand from businesses [4][32] - Companies benefiting from the overseas Robotaxi market and the acceleration of domestic To-B solutions include WeRide, Pony.ai, Horizon Robotics, and others [4][36] Summary by Sections Robotaxi Market Insights - Waymo's average daily orders in California exceeded 20 per vehicle by the end of 2024, with a fleet size of approximately 730 vehicles [7] - In California, Waymo's pricing is significantly higher than that of Uber and Lyft, with average fares being 41% and 31% higher, respectively [16][18] - Users of Robotaxi services prioritize safety and technology over price, with 70% of users preferring Waymo over traditional ride-hailing services [19][22] Technological Developments - Waymo is advancing towards a multimodal model (EMMA) that integrates various sensor inputs for improved navigation [25][31] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology still lags behind Waymo in terms of operational efficiency, with significant differences in miles driven before requiring human intervention [26][30] Domestic Market Opportunities - The RoboTruck market is projected to reach a potential market size of approximately 400 billion yuan by 2030, driven by cost savings for businesses [32][35] - Companies like WeRide are expanding their Robotaxi operations internationally, with a focus on partnerships with ride-hailing platforms in various regions [36][37]