Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and total production and sales for next year, leading to a diminished cyclical attribute of the automotive sector. The core focus is on technological attributes and emerging growth directions [1][2]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is experiencing a revaluation of its technological attributes, with a focus on structural growth. The strong performance of stocks like XPeng Motors and Weichai Power is noted, driven by XPeng's recent technology day showcasing advancements such as the second-generation VLA model, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Iron, which have boosted market expectations [1][2]. - The automotive and robotics sectors are positioned as core applications of physical AI, with potential to catalyze a turning point in industry trends as technologies from Tesla, such as FSD V14 and Optimus, are set to be launched and mass-produced in 2026 [1][2]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector has seen a continuous pullback since the fourth quarter, with some quality stocks entering a bottoming configuration. The industry is on the verge of significant advancements, and the current pullback is attributed to previous substantial gains and a temporary lack of catalysts [3]. - Market focus is on the upcoming Q1 2024 release of Tesla's third-generation Optimus prototype and the progress of the supply chain's fixed-point contracting [3]. Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector shows stable weekly insurance sales, with new models like XPeng's extended-range platform and the Xingtu ET5 demonstrating strong cost-performance ratios. However, market reactions are muted due to expectations of weaker total sales next year, with structural growth remaining in high-end and overseas markets [4]. - The lithium battery and materials segments are benefiting from a surge in demand for energy storage, leading to price increases in sectors like 6F, reinforcing a logic of rising volume and price [4]. Commercial Vehicle Sector - The commercial vehicle sector is performing well as a high-quality, undervalued asset, with expectations for steady growth in overseas markets, particularly in buses and motorcycles, which show higher growth elasticity [5]. - The heavy-duty engine supply chain is benefiting from the ramp-up of AIDC, with leading companies like Weichai Power expected to see a revaluation of their stock [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the convergence of Robotaxi technology with passenger vehicles, indicating that Waymo is developing its VLA/world model based on Gemini, while Tesla's FSDV13 shows a significant gap in performance compared to Waymo [1][2] - In high purchasing power markets, the willingness to pay for Robotaxi services is stronger than for traditional ride-hailing services, with Waymo users prioritizing safety and showing lower price sensitivity [2] - Domestic markets may still view Robotaxi as a substitute for traditional taxis, while in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and North America, there is potential for high-end demand for Robotaxi services [2] Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the domestic To-B solutions, such as RoboTruck, RoboVan, RoboBus, and Robosweeper, may see faster commercialization compared to To-C Robotaxi due to the clear cost-reduction needs of businesses [2] - Companies that could benefit from the overseas Robotaxi market and the acceleration of domestic To-B solutions include WeRide, Pony.ai, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Technologies, Jingwei Hirain, and Desay SV [3] Technical Developments - The report emphasizes the need to monitor Tesla's V14 version experience and the performance of Robotaxi operations after removing safety drivers and opening to the public, as this could significantly impact the competitive landscape [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The willingness to pay for Robotaxi services in high-income markets is stronger than for traditional ride-hailing services. Waymo's pricing is higher than Uber and Lyft, with users prioritizing safety over cost [4][7] - Domestic markets may still view Robotaxi as a substitute for traditional taxis, while in regions like the Middle East, Europe, and North America, Robotaxi is seen as a premium service [4][7] - Technological advancements in Robotaxi are converging with passenger vehicles, but significant gaps remain in performance metrics compared to leading companies like Waymo [4][25][26] - The domestic To-B solutions, such as RoboTruck and RoboVan, may see faster commercialization compared to To-C Robotaxi due to clearer demand from businesses [4][32] - Companies benefiting from the overseas Robotaxi market and the acceleration of domestic To-B solutions include WeRide, Pony.ai, Horizon Robotics, and others [4][36] Summary by Sections Robotaxi Market Insights - Waymo's average daily orders in California exceeded 20 per vehicle by the end of 2024, with a fleet size of approximately 730 vehicles [7] - In California, Waymo's pricing is significantly higher than that of Uber and Lyft, with average fares being 41% and 31% higher, respectively [16][18] - Users of Robotaxi services prioritize safety and technology over price, with 70% of users preferring Waymo over traditional ride-hailing services [19][22] Technological Developments - Waymo is advancing towards a multimodal model (EMMA) that integrates various sensor inputs for improved navigation [25][31] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology still lags behind Waymo in terms of operational efficiency, with significant differences in miles driven before requiring human intervention [26][30] Domestic Market Opportunities - The RoboTruck market is projected to reach a potential market size of approximately 400 billion yuan by 2030, driven by cost savings for businesses [32][35] - Companies like WeRide are expanding their Robotaxi operations internationally, with a focus on partnerships with ride-hailing platforms in various regions [36][37]