中信建投研报称，当前市场对汽车明年刺激政策及产销总量预期较弱，汽车顺周期属性弱化，科技属性 及新兴成长方向是核心主线。广州车展开幕，多车企发布2026年新款车型，广汽发布了和华为乾崑携手 打造的品牌"启境"，至此华为和车企合作打造的品牌已达八个"五界三境"，尊界S800上市175天大定突 破1.8万台，品牌势能迅猛，2026年华为新车大年值得关注。此外，小鹏、广汽、长安等车企在车展期 间展出自研机器人产品，继小鹏日前发布第二代VLA大模型、人形机器人Iron等提振市场预期，2026年 伴随特斯拉FSD V14、Robotaxi、Optimus等技术迭代定型及上市量产，汽车及机器人作为物理AI核心应 用，有望催生产业趋势拐点，整车股科技属性或将重估。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 机器人产业ETF（159551）跟踪的是机器人指数（H30590），该指数聚焦于机器人产业相关企业，从市 场中选取从事机器人研发、制造及应用的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖机械制造、电子设备和信息 技术等领域。指数配置突出技术创新与工业自动化趋势，旨在反映智能装备和自动化解决方案领域的整 体发展表现。 中信建投指出，小鹏、广汽、长安等车企在车展期间展出自研机器人产品，继小鹏发布第二代VLA大 模型、智驾（Robotaxi）、人形机器人Iron等提振市场预期，26年伴随特斯拉FSD V14、Robotaxi、 Optimus等技术迭代定型及上市量产，汽车及机器人作为物理AI核心应用，有望催生产业趋势拐点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 115 / USD 29, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a narrower loss in Q3, which was better than expected, driven by high-margin revenue from collaboration with Volkswagen [1][3]. - The "dual-energy" strategy and international expansion are expected to support sales growth in 2026, with accelerated deployment of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [1][2]. - The earnings forecast has been revised downward due to increased competition in the industry, with expected sales reductions of 3% to 11% for 2025-2027 [3][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3, the company recorded a net loss of RMB 380 million, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter reduction of 78.9% and 20.3%, respectively, outperforming the market expectation of RMB 564 million by approximately 32.5% [1]. - Revenue for Q3 reached RMB 20.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high-margin income from the partnership with Volkswagen [1][3]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company aims to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37% to 44% [1]. - The upcoming launch of the X9 super-range extender model is expected to significantly drive profitability, with pre-order volumes three times that of the previous generation [2]. - The company plans to introduce three different price models for Robotaxi in 2026, utilizing cost-effective technologies to enhance adaptability [2]. Profitability Forecast - The revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB -1.4 billion, RMB 1.2 billion, and RMB 3.7 billion, respectively, reflecting adjustments due to increased R&D investments in AI [3][24]. - The average selling price of vehicles is expected to decrease slightly, with a forecasted average of RMB 161,679 in 2025 [23]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably in the market due to its advancements in humanoid robots and Robotaxi, which are expected to provide a competitive edge over peers [3][6]. - The report highlights the company's valuation at 1.9x FY26 P/S, which is below the historical average of 4.2x, indicating potential for growth [3][27].

Core Viewpoint - The current market expectations for automotive stimulus policies and total production and sales volume for next year are weak, indicating a diminished cyclical attribute of the automotive sector. The core focus is shifting towards technology attributes and emerging growth directions [1] Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - Xpeng Technologies recently launched its second-generation VLA large model, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Iron, which have boosted market expectations [1] - By 2026, with the technological iterations and mass production of Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus, the automotive and robotics sectors are expected to experience a pivotal industry trend [1] - The core applications of physical AI in vehicles and robots may lead to a reassessment of the technology attributes of automotive stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and total production and sales for next year, leading to a diminished cyclical attribute of the automotive sector. The core focus is on technological attributes and emerging growth directions [1][2]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is experiencing a revaluation of its technological attributes, with a focus on structural growth. The strong performance of stocks like XPeng Motors and Weichai Power is noted, driven by XPeng's recent technology day showcasing advancements such as the second-generation VLA model, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Iron, which have boosted market expectations [1][2]. - The automotive and robotics sectors are positioned as core applications of physical AI, with potential to catalyze a turning point in industry trends as technologies from Tesla, such as FSD V14 and Optimus, are set to be launched and mass-produced in 2026 [1][2]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector has seen a continuous pullback since the fourth quarter, with some quality stocks entering a bottoming configuration. The industry is on the verge of significant advancements, and the current pullback is attributed to previous substantial gains and a temporary lack of catalysts [3]. - Market focus is on the upcoming Q1 2024 release of Tesla's third-generation Optimus prototype and the progress of the supply chain's fixed-point contracting [3]. Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector shows stable weekly insurance sales, with new models like XPeng's extended-range platform and the Xingtu ET5 demonstrating strong cost-performance ratios. However, market reactions are muted due to expectations of weaker total sales next year, with structural growth remaining in high-end and overseas markets [4]. - The lithium battery and materials segments are benefiting from a surge in demand for energy storage, leading to price increases in sectors like 6F, reinforcing a logic of rising volume and price [4]. Commercial Vehicle Sector - The commercial vehicle sector is performing well as a high-quality, undervalued asset, with expectations for steady growth in overseas markets, particularly in buses and motorcycles, which show higher growth elasticity [5]. - The heavy-duty engine supply chain is benefiting from the ramp-up of AIDC, with leading companies like Weichai Power expected to see a revaluation of their stock [5].

Core Viewpoint - XPeng Motors' stock price has surged significantly after a prolonged period of stagnation, with a 16% increase in US markets and an 18% rise in Hong Kong markets following a positive report from Morgan Stanley, which raised the target price to $34 per share and HK$131 [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Positioning - Morgan Stanley believes XPeng is transitioning from being merely an electric vehicle manufacturer to a diversified player in artificial intelligence applications, which is expected to provide asymmetric advantages against competitors in both the EV and tech sectors [3]. - Despite having a smaller fleet compared to industry giants like BYD and Geely, XPeng's early focus on autonomous driving and self-developed AI computing is anticipated to accelerate its data collection and learning processes [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - XPeng showcased new products, including humanoid robots and autonomous taxis, during its technology day, which operate on the same foundational models, enhancing data acquisition and machine learning capabilities [4]. - The introduction of XPeng's AI Turing chip, which supports L3 autonomous driving, is a key component of its VLA 2.0 system and is expected to be integrated into new vehicle models starting in 2025 [7]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Potential - Morgan Stanley has updated its bullish scenario for XPeng, incorporating the potential revenue from AI products, humanoid robots, and autonomous taxis, alongside the ongoing expansion of its EV business [5]. - The estimated valuation for XPeng's AI Turing chip business is projected at 47 billion RMB, with potential revenue reaching 5-6 billion RMB by 2028 [8]. - The humanoid robot segment is valued at 7 billion RMB, with expectations of rapid growth from 2026 to 2030 [10]. - The autonomous taxi business is estimated to be worth 14 billion RMB, with a projected fleet size of 65,000 vehicles by 2028 [11]. - Overall, Morgan Stanley's bullish scenario values XPeng at approximately 368 billion RMB, factoring in the automotive business, AI chip business, humanoid robots, and autonomous taxis [12].

Core Viewpoint - The future of automobiles is envisioned as four-wheeled robots, with intelligent driving becoming the core competitive point in the industry by 2025, as electric vehicle technology matures and becomes a basic threshold for entry [2][9]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The development of the new energy industry has shifted focus from electrification to intelligent driving, marking a new cycle of competition [2]. - Major tech companies are investing in physical AI, indicating a consensus that the next generation of human-machine interaction will be through robotics [2][9]. - The emergence of physical AI is expected to revolutionize various sectors, including automotive, robotics, and flying cars, creating a more integrated technological ecosystem [7][28]. Group 2: Company Developments - Xiaopeng Motors has been an early adopter of AI in the automotive sector, positioning itself in the first tier of intelligent driving companies in China [3]. - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs with its second-generation VLA model, which allows for autonomous understanding of physical laws, enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities [5][20]. - Xiaopeng's investment in AI infrastructure includes a 4.5 billion yuan annual investment in computing power, establishing a large-scale intelligent computing cluster to support its AI model training [16]. Group 3: Product Innovations - Xiaopeng plans to launch multiple products, including three Robotaxi models and a highly humanoid robot named IRON, aiming for mass production by the end of 2026 [22][30]. - The second-generation VLA model is designed to eliminate reliance on high-precision maps, enabling more flexible and cost-effective deployment of Robotaxi services [28]. - The company is also advancing in the flying car sector, with over 7,000 orders for its land carrier and ongoing flight verification for its multi-person tilt-rotor flying car [30]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the physical AI space is intensifying, with Xiaopeng and Tesla both recognizing the need for a combination of diverse hardware and unified software architecture to support AI's development in the physical world [12][17]. - Xiaopeng's approach to physical AI aims to create a synergistic effect across its various business lines, optimizing costs and enhancing overall competitiveness [26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from a single-direction chase to a collaborative innovation model, where breakthroughs are achieved through the convergence of multiple fields [33].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng's sales performance has significantly improved, with a delivery volume of 35,000 units in April, representing a year-on-year growth of 273%, making it the second-best seller in the new energy vehicle market after Leap Motor [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first four months of the year, Xiaopeng's total delivery volume reached 129,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 313%, positioning it as the champion among new forces [1] - The success is attributed to the popular models MO3 and P7+, which have driven sales growth [1] - The monthly sales of P7+ are expected to stabilize around 8,000 units by 2025, with both models accounting for over 70% of total monthly sales [1] Group 2: Market Competition - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing intensified competition, with over 40% penetration, leading to the exit of several brands [2] - Despite the competition, BYD remains the strongest leader in the market, while new forces are stabilizing [2] - Xiaopeng's two popular models are nearing the end of their order backlog, with delivery cycles shortening to 1-2 weeks [2] Group 3: Product Strategy - Xiaopeng focuses on creating cost-effective models targeting young consumers, with MO3 priced between 100,000 to 130,000 yuan and P7+ between 180,000 to 200,000 yuan [3] - The company plans to launch around 30 new models or major updates within three years, including the G7 SUV and G01 six-seat SUV by 2025 [6] Group 4: Financial Performance - Xiaopeng's sales growth has led to a significant increase in revenue, with a projected revenue growth of over 100% in Q1 2025 [6] - The gross margin improved to 14.44% in Q4 2024, with a net loss ratio narrowing to 8.26% [6] - The company has a cash reserve of 32.72 billion yuan, providing a healthy cash flow situation compared to peers [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Xiaopeng is expected to maintain its competitive edge by leveraging its self-developed technologies and cost reduction strategies [8] - The company is also exploring new business areas, such as flying cars and humanoid robots, which may provide future revenue streams [9] - The ability to sustain high sales growth and maintain market share will be crucial for Xiaopeng's success in the competitive landscape [10]

Core Insights - The 2024 World Robot Conference showcased 27 humanoid robots, highlighting the growing reality of embodied intelligence applications, which has gained attention following its inclusion in the 2025 government work report [1] - Guangdong province is positioning embodied intelligent robots as a key future industry, emphasizing the integration of AI technology with the manufacturing sector [1] Industry Developments - Guangzhou has nearly 50,000 robot-related companies, ranking second among Chinese cities, and 2024 is anticipated to be the "commercialization year" for humanoid robots [2] - Major companies like GAC Group, Xinjian Robotics, Xiaopeng Motors, and Ligong Intelligence have launched new humanoid robot products, demonstrating Guangzhou's unique advantages in hardware development and AI integration [2] - GAC Group's GoMate humanoid robot features 38 degrees of freedom and can switch between four-wheeled and two-wheeled modes, showcasing its all-terrain capabilities [2] - Xinjian Robotics has achieved large-scale commercialization of AI and collaborative robots, with its X-Trainer already implemented in leading manufacturing enterprises [3] - Xiaopeng Motors' Iron robot, equipped with advanced AI systems, is transitioning from a production tool to a dual-role in manufacturing and service [3] - Ligong Intelligence's new humanoid robot "Lideng F1" is set for delivery in 2025, indicating a strong market interest [3] Technological Advancements - Guangzhou's companies are developing differentiated competitive advantages, with GAC focusing on wheeled technology, Xinjian on industrial collaboration, Xiaopeng on automotive synergy, and Ligong on precision industrial applications [3] - The integration of AI models with embodied intelligence is accelerating the transition of robots from "single-point execution" to "autonomous decision-making" [3] Policy and Support - Guangdong's industrial robot production is projected to reach 240,000 units in 2024, a 31.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 40% of the national total [4] - The province has implemented various policies to support the development of the embodied intelligence industry, including a three-year action plan for high-end equipment [4] - The establishment of the "Intelligent Equipment and Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry Alliance" aims to enhance collaboration among key industry players and accelerate technology transfer [4] Future Directions - Experts suggest that Guangzhou should focus on cross-industry innovation and collaboration between academia and industry to fully realize the potential of humanoid robots [5] - There is a call for the development of high-precision robot control systems and the exploration of synergies with emerging industries such as intelligent unmanned systems and advanced materials [5] - Emphasis is placed on expanding the market application of robots in public services, healthcare, elderly care, and education sectors [5]