从产业一线视角解析 HVDC 投资机会 20250824 摘要 英伟达计划在 2027 年下半年推出全系标配 800 伏方案的 Ruben Ultra 产品，这将推动数据中心 HVDC 技术发展，并要求数据中心提前改造以 支持 800 伏输出，单机柜服务器功率将达到兆瓦级别。 当前市场上主要存在 48 伏供电架构和即将推广的 800 伏 HVDC 架构两 种方案。GB200、GB300 及 Vera Rubin 等服务器采用 48 伏 PSU， 而 Ruben Ultra 将采用 800 伏板载电源，无需传统 PSU。 台达在 OCP 大会上展示了 800 伏架构下的 ACDC 电源边柜方案，内置 ACDC 电源，输出正负 400 伏或 800 伏直流电压，适用于 HVAC 方案， Meta 计划在 2026 年采用类似方案。 HVAC 与 HVDC 产品的主要技术壁垒在于形态差异和布线方式，海外产 品需做成扁平形态以插入机架，并解决散热和电磁干扰问题，台达系公 司在此方面具备优势。 国内企业如巴拿马和中恒正在推进支持 800 伏输出的 AC-DC 电源，中 恒已推出 800 伏半导体能源方案，并在互联网大厂 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the performance of 1574 companies in the A-share market, with a disclosure rate of approximately 29% for Q2 2025 earnings forecasts, and a positive earnings forecast rate of about 43.7% [3] - It suggests focusing on cyclical and resource sectors for excess returns between the earnings forecast date and the official earnings report date, particularly in the basic chemical sector [3] - The report identifies 10 companies that have shown "earnings surprise" signals, with over 5 companies in the pharmaceutical and biological sector having a probability of earnings surprise of no less than 2% [3] Group 2 - The report discusses the introduction of government bond trading as a monetary policy tool, which was launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 [4] - It emphasizes that the bond trading aims to diversify monetary policy tools and alleviate liquidity pressure while stabilizing issuance costs [4][30] - The report notes that the probability of resuming bond trading in the short term is low due to high interest rate risks faced by rural commercial banks [4] Group 3 - The report covers the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies in the explosive materials sector, particularly in relation to the recently commenced Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost local demand for explosives [10][34] - It estimates that the hydropower project could lead to a demand for tens of thousands of tons of explosives, with several listed companies already positioned in the region [10][34] - The report provides data on the production and sales of industrial explosives in Tibet, indicating a 10% year-on-year increase in production from January to May 2025 [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, focusing on the re-pricing of "cost factors" to combat "involution" in competition [12][32] - It highlights the importance of standardizing land, energy efficiency, safety, and environmental factors as part of the supply-side reform strategy [12][32] - The report suggests that the chemical sector could see a structural improvement due to enhanced supply constraints and demand support [12][32] Group 5 - The report on Hong Kong-listed company Macro Technology (301662) indicates a projected revenue decline of 34.64% in 2024, with further declines expected in Q1 2025 [6][26] - It emphasizes the company's leadership in material handling and its focus on expanding into the lithium battery sector, with significant orders from major clients [6][26] - The report forecasts a recovery in orders starting in 2025, with a total order backlog of 9.18 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 [6][26]

Group 1: Urbanization and City Renewal - The core focus of the new urbanization strategy is people-oriented, differentiated policies, and urban renewal, aiming to enhance the urbanization rate to 70% within five years [23][24] - Urban renewal encompasses the reshaping of urban functions, improvement of living quality, and preservation of historical culture, with current tasks emphasizing the renovation of old communities and infrastructure enhancement [23][25] - The report suggests paying attention to sectors related to interior design, building materials, underground pipelines, elevators, urban planning, and smart cities [25] Group 2: Economic and Market Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown resilience, with major indices experiencing increases, particularly the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index, which rose nearly 2% [28] - In June, social financing continued to increase year-on-year, supported by government bonds and improved credit issuance, reflecting positive economic factors [32][34] - The report highlights a significant increase in M1 year-on-year, attributed to seasonal fiscal efforts and improved consumer confidence due to easing external trade tensions [35] Group 3: Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry has undergone significant supply-side reforms, with over 10 billion tons of outdated capacity eliminated by the end of 2020, resulting in a reduction of coal mines to below 4,700 [11] - The current environment reflects a situation of high operating rates leading to internal competition, rather than a traditional oversupply scenario [11][40] - The report suggests that controlling operating rates may be a key strategy for the coal industry to mitigate excessive competition [40] Group 4: Semiconductor and Electronics Sector - The semiconductor sector is expected to maintain optimistic growth, driven by AI demand and domestic market expansion, with a focus on storage and design segments [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in the context of geopolitical risks [19] - Companies like Jiangbo Long are highlighted for their potential growth due to favorable market conditions and technological advancements [18]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The recent tariff increase by the US affects 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations, with a significant adjustment in tariffs on Vietnam to 20% and 40% on transshipment trade [2] - The overall US tariff level is expected to remain between 15-20%, while tariffs on China are likely to stay between 30-40%, with a stronger focus on specific categories [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market is currently in a volatile phase, with structural highlights present but facing resistance; trading funds remain active, while foreign passive allocation shows significant inflows [3] - The net outflow of broad-based ETFs reached a new high since March, indicating potential market instability [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Correlation - Changes in global order have altered asset pricing logic, leading to a unique positive correlation between US stocks, the dollar, and bonds, resulting in increased volatility [4] - The domestic stock-bond negative correlation provides a favorable environment for diversified asset allocation [4] Group 4: Machinery Industry - Excavator sales in June reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with exports growing by 19% [5] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [5] Group 5: Agriculture Sector - The "anti-involution" policy in the pig farming industry is expected to release inventory and positively impact pig prices in the autumn and winter seasons [7] - Major pig farming companies are adjusting their production strategies, which may enhance overall profitability in the long term [7] Group 6: Chemical and Oil Industry - The capital expenditure growth rate in the chemical and oil sector is declining, indicating a potential turning point in industry prosperity [9] - The demand recovery in downstream chemical products is anticipated alongside a reduction in capital expenditure, which may lead to a recovery in the second half of 2025 [9] Group 7: Telecommunications Industry - The global telecommunications industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by demand in emerging markets and increasing ARPU in North America [10] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to bring transformative opportunities to the telecommunications sector [10] Group 8: Electric Power and New Energy - The recent policy from the National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote the construction of high-power charging facilities, which is expected to enhance the profitability of equipment manufacturers [11] - The goal is to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, indicating strong policy support for the sector [11] Group 9: Company Performance - Shengquan Group expects a net profit of 491-513 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [12] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 11.958-12.158 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a growth of 36.84%-39.12% [14]