Core Viewpoint - Samsung plans to launch a "wide foldable" phone in the fall of 2026 to compete directly with Apple's first foldable phone, the iPhone Fold [1][8] Group 1: Samsung's "Wide Foldable" Phone - The "wide foldable" phone will feature a 7.6-inch inner screen and a 5.4-inch outer screen, both made of OLED material, with a 4:3 aspect ratio [1][8] - This phone is expected to support 25W wireless charging, making it one of Samsung's fastest wireless charging devices [1][8] - The aspect ratio of the inner screen is closer to that of a tablet display, providing a wider horizontal view and more efficient split-screen operation, suitable for browsing and photo viewing [1][8] Group 2: Apple's iPhone Fold - Apple is expected to release its iPhone Fold in the second half of 2026, with an inner screen size of 7.76 inches and an outer screen of 5.49 inches [1][8] - Due to development delays, the iPhone Fold may face supply shortages before the end of 2026 [1][8] - Apple considers foldable screens as a core evolution direction for the smartphone industry, designating the iPhone Fold as a "must-launch product" for next year [2][8] Group 3: Market Trends and Competitors - Other brands like OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, and Honor are also planning to launch "wide foldable" phones next year [10] - Omdia reports that global shipments of foldable phones are expected to remain around 6.6 million units in the first half of 2025, with a 32.8% year-on-year growth in the Chinese market driven by Huawei's Mate and Pura X series [10][12] - The foldable phone market is projected to see a 51% year-on-year increase in shipments in 2026, continuing to drive market momentum into 2027 [10][12] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - Foldable phones currently represent a small niche in the overall smartphone market, with a low single-digit percentage share [12] - For most manufacturers, the primary goal of foldable phones is to showcase technological leadership and R&D capabilities, rather than achieving high direct sales or profit targets [12] - Samsung holds a 19% market share, maintaining the top position for three consecutive quarters, while Apple follows closely with an 18% share [12]

以下文章来源于TrendForce集邦 ，作者TrendForce | Rankings | Brand | Production | QoQ | Market Share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Samsung | 63 | 8% | 19% | | 2 | Apple | 57 | 23% | 17% | | 3 | Xiaomi | 45 | 6% | 14% | | 4 | Oppo | 40 | 8% | 12% | | 5 | Transsion | 29 | 9% | 9% | | 6 | Vivo | 28 | 8% | 9% | 三星（ Samsung ） TrendForce集邦 . TrendForce集邦咨询是一家全球高科技产业研究机构，研究领域横跨存储器、AI服务器、集成电路与半 导体、晶圆代工、显示面板、LED、AR/VR、新能源（含太阳能光伏、储能和电池）、AI机器人及汽车 科技等，提供前瞻性行业研究报告、产业分析 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，下半年手机市场迎来传统旺季，加上品牌陆续发布新机，推 升2025年第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone production is expected to increase by 9% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 328 million units, driven by seasonal demand and new product launches from brands [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The fourth quarter will see flagship brands launching new models, supported by global e-commerce promotions, although tight memory supply and rising prices may compress profit margins for low-end smartphones [1]. - The overall smartphone production forecast for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.6% year-on-year, with potential downward adjustments due to memory supply issues [1]. Group 2: Regional Performance - In China, subsidy policies significantly boosted consumption in Q1, with an expected slight year-on-year sales increase of 2%, maintaining a 23% market share as the largest consumer market [1]. - India ranks second with a 13% market share, benefiting from recovering demand, with a projected 2% year-on-year sales growth [1]. - North America, the third-largest market, is expected to see a 1% year-on-year sales decline, with a market share of 11% due to slowed demand in the second half of the year [1]. Group 3: Brand Production Performance - Samsung produced approximately 63 million units in Q3, an 8% increase, maintaining a 19% market share as the leading brand [3]. - Apple achieved a production of about 57 million units in Q3, the highest for that quarter historically, securing the second position with a 17% market share [4]. - Xiaomi's production reached nearly 45 million units in Q3, a 6% increase, placing it third in the market [5]. - OPPO produced around 40 million units in Q3, an 8% increase, benefiting from sales recovery in India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [6]. - Transsion's production exceeded 29 million units in Q3, a 9% increase, driven by growth in emerging markets in Africa and Asia [7]. - Vivo's production totaled approximately 28 million units in Q3, with an increase of over 8%, closely competing with Transsion [8].

Core Insights - The global smartphone production is expected to increase by 9% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, reaching 328 million units, driven by seasonal demand and new product launches [2] - Despite the growth, the tightening supply and rising prices of memory components may compress profit margins for low-end smartphones, potentially offsetting some growth momentum [2] - The overall smartphone production forecast for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year, with a possibility of downward revision due to memory supply issues [2] Regional Market Performance - In China, the subsidy policy significantly boosted consumption in Q1, with an estimated annual sales growth of 2%, maintaining a 23% market share as the largest consumer market [2] - India ranks second with a 13% market share, benefiting from recovering demand, with an expected annual sales growth of 2% [2] - North America, the third-largest consumer market, is projected to see a 1% decline in annual sales due to a slowdown in demand after preemptive stocking by brands in the first half of the year, holding an 11% market share [2] Brand Production Rankings - Samsung leads with a production of approximately 63 million units, an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter, maintaining a 19% market share [3][5] - Apple follows with a production of about 57 million units, marking the highest production for Q3 in its history, benefiting from successful pricing and capacity upgrades of the iPhone 17 [3][6] - Xiaomi ranks third with nearly 45 million units produced, a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by new product launches and festive season stocking [3][7] - OPPO, in fourth place, produced around 40 million units, an 8% increase, supported by sales recovery in India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [3][8] - Transsion ranks fifth with over 29 million units produced, a 9% increase, primarily driven by emerging markets in Africa and Asia [3][9] - Vivo, in sixth place, produced approximately 28 million units, with a growth of over 8%, aided by demand for mid-to-high-end models [3][10]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market experienced a 3% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong replacement demand and preemptive stocking by manufacturers ahead of a busy Q4 [2][4] - Samsung and Apple remain the top two players in the global market, with Apple’s iPhone 17 series performing well, although the new iPhone Air has seen lower-than-expected demand [2][5] - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 3% decline year-on-year in Q3, but the competitive landscape is shifting, with vivo regaining the top position and Huawei moving up to second place [2][8] Global Market Dynamics - The growth in the global smartphone market is attributed to two main factors: the release of pent-up replacement demand and innovations in hardware and AI experiences that have rekindled consumer interest [4] - Samsung holds a 19% market share, benefiting from the popularity of its Galaxy A series and the upgrade of its foldable devices [4] - Apple’s iPhone shipments increased by 4% year-on-year, marking the highest Q3 shipments in history, with the iPhone 17 series significantly contributing to this growth [5] Chinese Market Trends - The Chinese smartphone market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with a narrowing gap among leading manufacturers. Vivo led with 11.8 million units shipped, followed by Huawei and Apple [8] - Despite a decline, the reduced drop indicates a stabilization in the market, with a healthy inventory level set for the upcoming flagship releases and the Double Eleven shopping festival [8] - AI features are becoming increasingly important to consumers, with over 80% indicating that AI capabilities are a significant consideration for their next smartphone purchase [9][11] Future Outlook - The global smartphone market is expected to grow by 54 million units from 2025 to 2029, with nearly 70% of this growth coming from emerging markets [2] - Chinese brands are expanding their global influence, with their overseas market share surpassing 50% in the first half of 2025, up from 11% in 2013 [6] - The competition is shifting towards high-end, intelligent, and diversified revenue models, with AI becoming a core capability rather than just a marketing gimmick [7][11]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market experienced a 3% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong replacement demand and preemptive stocking by manufacturers ahead of a busy Q4 [1][3] - Samsung and Apple maintained the top two positions in global market share, with Apple’s iPhone 17 series performing well, although the new iPhone Air faced lower-than-expected demand [1][5] - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 3% decline year-on-year in Q3 2025, but the competitive landscape is shifting, with Vivo regaining the top position and Huawei moving to second place [1][8] Global Market Dynamics - The growth in the global smartphone market is attributed to two main factors: the release of pent-up replacement demand and innovations in hardware and AI experiences that have rekindled consumer interest [3][5] - Samsung held a 19% market share, benefiting from the popularity of its Galaxy A series and upgrades to its foldable devices [3] - Apple’s iPhone shipments grew by 4% year-on-year, achieving the highest Q3 shipment record, with the iPhone 17 series significantly contributing to this growth [5] Chinese Market Trends - The Chinese smartphone market is in an adjustment phase, with a 3% year-on-year decline in Q3 2025, but the rate of decline has slowed, indicating market stabilization [8][9] - Vivo led the market with 11.8 million units shipped, capturing an 18% market share, followed by Huawei and Apple [8][9] - The competition among top manufacturers is intensifying, with a focus on product differentiation through design, battery life, camera capabilities, and AI features [9][10] Future Outlook - The global smartphone market is expected to grow by 54 million units from 2025 to 2029, with nearly 70% of this growth coming from emerging markets [1] - AI and innovative designs are becoming key growth drivers, with manufacturers increasingly focusing on enhancing user experience through AI capabilities [6][10] - Chinese brands are expanding their global influence, with their overseas market share exceeding 50% in the first half of 2025, up from 11% in 2013 [5][6]

Global Smartphone Market Overview - The global smartphone market experienced a 3% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2025, driven by strong replacement demand and preemptive stocking by manufacturers ahead of a busy Q4 [1][2] - Samsung and Apple maintained the top two positions in global market share, with Apple’s iPhone 17 series performing well, although the new iPhone Air saw limited shipments [1][2] - Omdia forecasts an increase of 54 million units in global smartphone shipments from 2025 to 2029, with nearly 70% of this growth coming from emerging markets [1] Domestic Market Dynamics - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 3% year-on-year decline in Q3 2025, but the decrease was less severe than in previous quarters, indicating a stabilization trend [5] - Vivo regained the top position in the Chinese market with an 18% share, followed closely by Huawei at 16%, and Apple at 15% [5] - The competition among top manufacturers is intensifying, with a focus on product differentiation through design, battery life, and camera capabilities [5][6] AI and Innovation Trends - AI and innovative designs are emerging as key growth drivers in the smartphone industry, with manufacturers increasingly focusing on enhancing user experience through AI functionalities [4][6] - Over 80% of consumers in China consider AI features important when choosing their next smartphone, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards AI capabilities [6] - The smartphone industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, with an emphasis on high-end, intelligent devices and diversified revenue models [4][5]

Core Insights - Samsung maintains the top position in the global smartphone market with a 19% market share for the third consecutive quarter, driven by strong sales of the Galaxy A series and upgrades to its seventh-generation foldable models [2][3] - Apple sees a 4% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments, achieving its strongest third-quarter performance ever, benefiting from early demand for the iPhone 17 series, with a market share of 18% [2][3] - Xiaomi remains stable with a 14% market share, ranking third, while Transsion and Vivo each hold 9%, making them part of the top five manufacturers this quarter [2][3] Market Trends - The demand for smartphone upgrades and replacements is recovering, contributing to growth in the market after earlier fluctuations [3] - All top five manufacturers experienced year-on-year growth in shipments, reflecting this positive trend [3] - New product launches from major brands have received positive responses, with a better balance between hardware and software [3] Product Highlights - The iPhone 17 series has performed exceptionally well, with the base model upgrading storage without changing the price, exceeding market expectations [3] - The newly designed iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have gained global consumer favor, while the iPhone Air, despite limited shipments, has shown strong marketing performance [3] Competitive Landscape - The smartphone market is currently facing intense competition, with many manufacturers experiencing significant pressure on profitability due to rising component costs [4][5] - The balance between competitive pricing and profit margins is becoming increasingly challenging for manufacturers [5] - Manufacturers are encouraged to explore additional revenue opportunities through subscription services, accessories, bundling, and ecosystem value-added sales to enhance consumer value propositions [5]

Core Insights - The global smartphone market maintained a growth trend in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year shipment increase of 4% according to Counterpoint Research [1] - The growth is driven by a mix of factors including mature and growth markets, high-end and budget 5G devices, inventory adjustments, and seasonal demand, indicating a new "differentiated recovery" phase in the industry [1] Market Performance - North America and Europe experienced a decline in smartphone shipments, while strong performances in India, the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and parts of Asia-Pacific contributed to overall global growth [1] - Demand for high-end models remains strong in developed markets, while budget 5G devices are increasingly favored in growth markets like India and MEA [1] Brand Analysis - Samsung maintained its position as the leading global smartphone brand with a 19% market share and a 6% year-on-year increase in shipments, driven by the strong performance of the Galaxy A series and the new Galaxy Z Fold7 [2] - Apple saw a 9% year-on-year increase in shipments, making it the fastest-growing brand among the top five, with significant growth in Japan, China, Western Europe, and other parts of Asia-Pacific [2] Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi ranked third with a 14% market share and a 2% year-on-year increase, benefiting from partnerships, promotions, and a strong presence in the mid-range segment in Southeast Asia, MEA, and Latin America [3] - OPPO and vivo ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, with OPPO achieving growth through budget 5G models in Southeast Asia and MEA, while vivo expanded its presence in the MEA market [3] Strategic Shifts - The trend of "global one-size-fits-all" strategies among smartphone brands is weakening, with a shift towards more localized operations to capture opportunities in differentiated markets [3] - Companies must innovate in the high-end market to maintain brand image and profits while also offering competitive budget 5G devices in growth markets to expand their customer base [3] - AI and foldable screens are becoming key differentiators for brands, providing avenues for innovation and competitive advantage in a saturated market [3]

Smartphone Industry - Global smartphone sales are expected to increase by 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by replacement cycles and other factors [1] - Samsung's Galaxy A series and the seventh-generation foldable phones are performing well, holding a market share of 19% [1] - Apple's iPhone 17 standard version shows strong growth with a market share of approximately 18% [1] PC Industry - Total shipments of desktops, laptops, and workstations are projected to grow by 6.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 72 million units [6] - Laptop shipments, including mobile workstations, are expected to rise by 4% to 57.2 million units, while desktop shipments are anticipated to grow by 17% to 15.2 million units [6] - The upcoming end of support for Windows 10 is driving demand for upgrades across all user segments [6] New Energy Vehicles - In July and August, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 987,000 and 1,115,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.0% and 8.8% [9] - Q3 sales are expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of around 10% [9] Inventory Levels - As of Q2 2025, the total inventory of consumer electronics listed companies reached 272.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% [10] - Inventory levels are at a recent high, driven by government subsidies and AI-related factors, indicating a positive outlook for Q3 [10] PCB Industry - The PCB industry in Taiwan saw single-digit revenue growth in July and August, with revenues of 41.584 billion and 41.487 billion New Taiwan dollars, respectively, both showing a year-on-year increase of 5% [11] - PCB manufacturing revenues for the same months were 73.447 billion and 75.508 billion New Taiwan dollars, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 4% [11] AI Sector - Hon Hai Precision is a major manufacturer of AI servers, expecting a 170% year-on-year increase in AI server revenue for Q3, with a 300% quarter-on-quarter growth [13] - Major Taiwanese foundries are maintaining high revenue growth rates, driven by increased demand for AI-related products and consumer electronics [13] Semiconductor Industry Semiconductor Design - Companies in semiconductor design are expected to benefit from high demand in consumer electronics, home appliances, and new energy vehicles [16] - The demand for automotive smart cameras is expected to boost CIS sales, while AI and government subsidies are likely to enhance SoC demand [16] Semiconductor Equipment - Domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment has been rapidly developing, with the replacement rate for CMP and cleaning processes reaching over 30% by 2024 [18] - The overall domestic substitution space is significant, although some processes like lithography remain low [18] Market Trends - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a relatively low valuation, with the semiconductor equipment ETF showing a PETTM of 86.39x as of October 15 [24] - The integrated circuit ETF is heavily weighted towards design, with significant representation from GPU, storage, and SoC sectors [26] Related Products - The consumer electronics ETF includes a range of brands and component manufacturers, with a PETTM of 64.61x as of October 14, indicating strong market positioning [15] - The AI-focused ETFs are also showing robust performance, with the AI ETF having a PETTM of 177.04x, reflecting its growth potential [30]