茅台不仅仅是消费品，它有金融属性，还有情绪价值，但是当越来越多的有钱人开始老去， 无法承接这个情绪价值，也没有足够的身体素质敢于持续饮酒的时候，茅台的基本面其实已 经变了。 作者：今纶 日前，段永平在接受雪球方三文的访谈的时候说到，他会一直拿着茅台，茅台股价到2600元的时候，他 没有卖，现在1200元也不会卖。 其实现在茅台的股价是1400元左右，段永平是口误，也可能是较早前录影。段永平说茅台的股价会回到 2600元，这个，我就不好预测了。 ▲段永平 但我个人的看法是茅台的顶峰肯定过了，销量应该很难有特别好的表现。 我知道很多人买了茅台股票，或者收藏了茅台酒，茅台雄风不在，他们很难受，但事实就是事实。 今天早上的消息：2026届全国普通高校毕业生规模预计1270万人，同比增加48万人。就业当如何？比较 难。 既然就业比较难，家里就会帮年轻人，哪怕老人家有比较高的退休金，也不会敞开了花，而是相对节 俭。 这其实是中国很多家庭的现状，无论有钱没钱，先收一收，尽量不花钱。 钱在哪里？存起来了：10月末，本外币存款余额332.92万亿元，同比增长8.3%。月末人民币存款余额 325.55万亿元，同比增长8%。 无论 ...

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China, which experienced rapid growth a decade ago, is now facing a downturn, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major brands like LVMH [3][4][5] - In contrast, the market for near-expiry food products is witnessing explosive growth, with a projected market size exceeding 40 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of nearly 6% [4][10] Group 1: Luxury Goods Market Decline - In 2015, China's luxury goods market reached a peak size of 113 billion yuan, contributing significantly to global consumption [1] - By 2025, LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2, with a 15% drop in operating profit and a 22% drop in net profit [3] - Bain & Company revised its forecast for the global luxury goods market, predicting a potential decline of 2% to 5% in sales for 2025 [3] Group 2: Rise of Near-Expiry Food Products - The near-expiry food market in China is projected to surpass 40 billion yuan this year, driven by a shift in consumer attitudes towards more practical and cost-effective purchasing [4][10] - The rapid expansion of near-expiry food chains, such as Haotemai, reflects a growing consumer preference for value-oriented shopping [4] - The trend indicates a fundamental change in consumer behavior from ostentatious luxury spending to rational and pragmatic consumption [4][10] Group 3: Changing Consumer Psychology - The shift in consumer behavior is attributed to a deep transformation in the consumption psychology of the middle class, moving from conspicuous consumption to practical spending [5][10] - The middle class's debt levels have risen above 50%, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and practical consumption dominating their purchasing decisions [5] - The economic environment has shifted from rapid growth to a more cautious approach, influencing consumer habits and preferences [7] Group 4: Generational Shift in Consumption - The primary consumers of luxury goods have shifted from the older generations (70s and 80s) to Generation Z, who prioritize cultural identity and self-expression over brand logos [8] - By 2025, online penetration of luxury goods is expected to reach 46%, with Generation Z accounting for 72% of transactions [8] - The second-hand luxury market is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards circular consumption and away from new luxury purchases [8] Group 5: Future Trends in Consumption - The rise of near-expiry food signifies a new trend in middle-class consumption, emphasizing quality-price ratio and sustainable practices [10][11] - Future consumption patterns are expected to focus on experiential spending, with increased interest in high-end travel and cultural entertainment [10] - Companies are encouraged to adapt to the "new pragmatism" in consumer behavior, focusing on quality and value in their offerings [11]

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a downturn, with major players like LVMH and Kering reporting significant declines in revenue and profits for the second quarter of 2025 [1][4][5] - The overall market sentiment has shifted, leading to a revised forecast for global luxury goods sales, now expected to decline by 2% to 5% in 2025 [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with operating profit down 15% and net profit down 22%, particularly affected by poor performance in its core fashion and leather goods segment [1] - Kering's Q2 revenue was €3.7 billion, a 15% year-on-year decline, with Gucci's sales down 26% for the sixth consecutive quarter, and net profit down 46% [1] - In contrast, Prada's Miu Miu saw a 40% increase in Q2 revenue, while Richemont exceeded market expectations with a 6% revenue growth in Q1 2026 [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The Japanese market has shown weak performance, with Kering's Asia-Pacific revenue down 21% and LVMH's revenue in Japan down 15% [5] - The luxury sector is witnessing a "layered" market dynamic, where some brands thrive while others struggle, indicating a divergence in performance across different companies [4] Group 3: Channel Restructuring - Many luxury brands are closing stores, with Kering planning to close 80 stores this fiscal year, focusing on optimizing their retail presence [7][9] - The strategy involves reducing the number of stores in lower-tier cities while concentrating resources in major urban centers to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [9][10] Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Luxury brands are adopting a more restrained marketing approach, focusing on quality over quantity, with Valentino and Hermès leading this trend by reducing the frequency of marketing events [11][12] - This shift aims to enhance brand perception and mitigate risks associated with excessive visibility and consumer backlash during economic downturns [12][13] Group 5: Conclusion - The luxury goods industry is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with leading brands refocusing on core markets and adopting more subtle marketing strategies, moving away from aggressive growth tactics [13][14]

Core Insights - Gucci and its parent company Kering Group reported significant declines in their financial performance for the first half of the year, with Gucci's revenue dropping by 26% to €3.027 billion and operating profit halving to €486 million [1][2] - Kering Group's total revenue fell by 16% to €7.587 billion, and net profit plummeted by 46% to €474 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Gucci's revenue has declined for six consecutive quarters, with a double-digit percentage drop each quarter since 2024, returning to levels seen in the first half of 2017 [2] - The Asia-Pacific region, including China, saw a comparable revenue decrease of 21%, while the Japanese market experienced a 20% decline [3] - Kering Group closed 18 Gucci stores globally in the first half, with 7 located in the Asia-Pacific region due to the challenging market conditions [3] Group 2: Market Comparison - Other luxury brands are also facing challenges, with LVMH reporting a 22% decline in net profit, although some brands like Hermès saw an 8% revenue increase [5] - Miu Miu, a younger brand under Prada Group, achieved a remarkable 49.2% growth, indicating a successful strategy targeting younger consumers [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The decline in Gucci's performance reflects a shift in preferences among younger consumers, who are moving away from luxury brands towards investment items like gold [5][6] - The changing economic environment has impacted the middle class, affecting brands like Gucci that do not position themselves as ultra-luxury [5][6]

Group 1 - Kering Group reported a 16% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling €7.587 billion, with recurring operating profit down 38.7% to €969 million and net profit down 46% to €474 million [2] - The core brand Gucci experienced a significant revenue drop of 26% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, generating €3 billion, with a 25% decline in the second quarter to €1.46 billion [2] - Gucci's poor performance has persisted for six consecutive quarters, with comparable sales declines of 21%, 20%, 25%, 24%, 25%, and 25% from Q1 2024 to Q2 2025 [2] Group 2 - Other brands under Kering also faced challenges, with Saint Laurent (YSL) revenue down 11% to €1.3 billion in the first half of 2025, and a 10% decline in comparable sales for the second quarter [2] - Only Bottega Veneta and Kering Eyewear achieved growth, with Bottega Veneta's revenue increasing by 1% to €846 million and Kering Eyewear's revenue growing by 2% to €1.092 billion, while Kering Beauty saw a 9% increase [2] - Kering's Chairman and CEO Francois-Henri Pinault acknowledged the underperformance and stated that the company is optimizing distribution channels and cutting costs to strengthen its financial structure [3] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, Kering closed 24 stores globally, including 18 Gucci stores, with 7 located outside Japan in the Asia-Pacific region [3] - As of June 30, Kering had a total of 1,789 stores worldwide [3]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market is experiencing a significant slowdown after years of rapid growth, with major luxury groups reporting noticeable declines in performance [1][5] - Factors contributing to this downturn include substantial price increases in recent years, consumer fatigue with existing products, and economic uncertainties [1][5] Company Performance - LVMH reported a revenue of €39.81 billion for the first half of 2025, down 4% from €42 billion in the same period last year, with net profit decreasing by 22% to €5.7 billion [2] - The Asian market, excluding Japan, accounted for 28% of LVMH's revenue, while the U.S. market contributed 25% [2] - Kering, another major luxury group, saw its revenue drop by 16% to €7.587 billion, with net profit plummeting 46% to €474 million [3] - Hermès reported an 8% increase in revenue to €8.03 billion, but the growth in the Asia-Pacific market, including China, was significantly lower than expected, with only a 1.5% increase [4] Market Challenges - Analysts indicate that the luxury sector is facing its most disruptive challenges in over 15 years, with potential for the largest setback since 2008-2009 [5][7] - Economic instability, geopolitical conflicts, and trade tensions are impacting consumer confidence, leading to increased pressure on the luxury market [5][6] - Distribution challenges are also prevalent, with many distributors struggling to maintain cash flow and some entering restructuring phases [6] Pricing Strategies - In response to U.S. tariff policies, several luxury groups, including Hermès and LVMH, are considering price increases to offset the impact of new tariffs [6] - Hermès announced a price increase of 6%-7% in the U.S. market starting May 1, 2025, to counteract the effects of tariffs [6] Future Outlook - The luxury goods market, valued at €1.5 trillion, may face a prolonged period of stagnation, with market fluctuations becoming the "new normal" [7]

Core Viewpoint - Kering Group, a major player in the luxury goods sector, reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, mirroring trends seen in other luxury brands like LVMH [1][2]. Financial Performance - Kering Group's revenue decreased by 16% year-on-year to €7.587 billion, while net profit fell by 46% to €474 million [1]. - For the second quarter, revenue also dropped by 16%, surpassing the decline seen in the first quarter [1]. - Gucci's revenue fell by 26% to €3.027 billion, with a second-quarter decline of 27% [1]. - YSL's revenue decreased by 11% to €1.288 billion, with a second-quarter drop of 13% [1]. - BV (Bottega Veneta) showed a slight growth of 1% to €846 million, but its second-quarter revenue fell by 1% [1]. Regional Market Analysis - No region reported year-on-year growth, with the largest declines in the Asia-Pacific region and Japan, down 21% and 20% respectively [2]. - Western Europe and North America saw revenue decreases of 13% and 12% respectively [2]. - The sales share from the Asia-Pacific region dropped by 3 percentage points to 29% [2]. Brand Performance and Strategy - Gucci's contribution to Kering's revenue has decreased from over 50% to 40% in the first half of the year [3]. - Gucci has experienced six consecutive quarters of declining comparable sales, with declines ranging from 21% to 25% [3]. - Kering closed 24 stores in the first half of the year, including 18 Gucci stores [3]. Future Outlook and Leadership Changes - Kering Group is seeking to adapt to market changes and has appointed Luca de Meo as the new CEO, effective September [4]. - The luxury sector is expected to remain a key player in high-end consumption, but brands must innovate and enhance customer service to reverse sales declines [4]. - Experts suggest that luxury brands need to embrace a shift towards de-branding and focus on consumer engagement rather than traditional branding [4].

Core Viewpoint - Kering Group's financial performance in the first half of 2025 shows a significant decline, with a 46% drop in net profit to €474 million and a 16% decrease in sales to €7.6 billion, indicating ongoing struggles in the luxury goods market [2][3]. Financial Performance - Kering's net profit for the first half of 2025 is €474 million, down from €878 million in the same period of 2024 [2]. - Sales decreased by 16% to €7.6 billion in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The core brand Gucci experienced a 26% decline in sales, amounting to €3 billion, compared to over €4 billion a year earlier [3]. Brand Performance - Gucci's prolonged underperformance is a major concern, with its appeal diminishing across all regions [3]. - Other brands within Kering, such as Yves Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, also reported revenue declines of 11% and 15%, respectively [2]. - Bottega Veneta is an exception, showing a 1% revenue increase to €846 million, now accounting for 11% of the group's total revenue [2]. Market Conditions - The luxury goods market is experiencing a slowdown, attributed to weak consumer confidence and adverse currency fluctuations affecting tourism [3]. - The Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) and Japan have seen the most significant declines in sales [3]. - The strong euro has negatively impacted Kering's revenue growth by nearly 1% [3]. Strategic Changes - Kering has appointed Demna, formerly of Balenciaga, as the creative director for Gucci, hoping to revitalize the brand [3]. - Gucci's planned spring/summer fashion show has been postponed to March next year, with a new collection set to be unveiled in September [3]. Tariff Impact - A new agreement between the US and EU will impose a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, where North America accounts for 24% of Kering's sales [4]. - Kering's CFO stated that the impact of tariffs is manageable and may lead to price adjustments in the fall [4].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in China, as consumer behavior shifts towards more conservative spending due to economic instability and changing perceptions of value [5][10][32]. Group 1: Market Performance - Customer traffic at luxury retail locations, such as Beijing SKP, has decreased significantly, with reports indicating a two-thirds drop compared to three years ago [3][4]. - Major luxury brands like Hermès and LVMH have reported disappointing financial results, with Hermès achieving a revenue of €4.13 billion in Q1 2025, a 7% year-on-year increase but below market expectations [6][8]. - LVMH's revenue fell by 3% to €20.3 billion, while Kering's revenue dropped by 14% to €3.883 billion, with the Asia-Pacific market seeing a 25% decline [8][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The middle class, particularly represented by wage earners, is increasingly cautious, with many former luxury consumers now opting to only look rather than buy [14][16]. - A survey indicated that 65.95% of previous luxury consumers have reduced their purchasing frequency, with 81.25% citing a shift in consumption mindset towards value for money [19][20]. - Consumers are also more inclined to purchase luxury goods abroad due to lower taxes and favorable exchange rates, leading to a decline in domestic luxury spending [21][22]. Group 3: Brand Strategy and Market Adaptation - Luxury brands are facing challenges in maintaining their pricing strategies, as continuous price increases have led to a loss of entry-level consumers [25][26]. - Despite the challenges, brands like LVMH and Hermès continue to emphasize price increases, with LVMH indicating a 2% to 3% annual price increase potential [26][27]. - The rise of local brands and affordable luxury options, such as gold jewelry, is drawing consumers away from traditional luxury brands, prompting a need for luxury brands to adapt their strategies [27][30]. Group 4: Future Directions - To attract younger consumers, luxury brands are diversifying their product offerings, including entering the beauty market and collaborating with popular IPs [31][32]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards value and functionality suggests that luxury brands must rethink their marketing and product strategies to sustain growth in a changing market landscape [32].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, primarily due to the decline of the middle class and changing consumer behavior, leading to reduced sales and cautious expansion strategies by luxury brands [1][4][6]. Market Performance - Customer traffic at Beijing SKP has decreased by two-thirds compared to three years ago, with a sharp decline noted at the end of last year [1]. - Hermès reported a first-quarter revenue of €4.13 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, but below market expectations of €4.16 billion [2]. - LVMH's first-quarter revenue fell by 3% to €20.3 billion, with declines across nearly all business segments [3]. - Kering Group's revenue dropped by 14% to €3.883 billion, with a 25% decline in the Asia-Pacific market [3]. Consumer Behavior - The middle class, particularly represented by wage earners, is increasingly cautious, with many former luxury consumers now only purchasing classic items or refraining from buying altogether [4][6]. - A survey indicated that 65.95% of previous luxury consumers have reduced their purchasing frequency, with 81.25% citing a shift in consumption mindset towards perceived value [6]. Pricing Strategies - Luxury brands' traditional strategy of price increases to filter consumers is losing effectiveness, as rising prices exceed consumer psychological thresholds [5][6]. - Despite the downturn, LVMH and Hermès continue to emphasize price increases, with LVMH indicating a 2% to 3% annual price increase potential [8]. Market Dynamics - The rise of gold and light luxury brands is diverting consumers from traditional luxury brands, with significant interest in local brands noted [8][10]. - Coach's parent company reported a 7% increase in sales to $1.584 billion, with a 45% rise in net profit, indicating a shift towards more affordable luxury options [10]. Future Trends - By 2030, millennials are expected to contribute over half of luxury goods purchasing power, prompting brands to adapt their designs and marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [11]. - Luxury brands are increasingly exploring collaborations with popular IPs and expanding into beauty products to engage younger demographics [11].