摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周 AI 应用活跃度中，海外 Gemini 活跃度大幅提升，国内豆包持续上升。模型层面，阿里巴巴发布全模态模型 Qwen3-Omni 及万亿参数的 Qwen3-Max，后者在代码与智能体等能力上表现突出，并在 LMArena 排行榜上超越 GPT- 5-Chat。DeepSeek 发布并开源了升级版的 V3.1-Terminus，优化了编程与推理性能。视频生成赛道，可灵 AI 推出 可灵 2.5Turbo 效果提升的同时大幅降价。 - 美光在 FY25Q4 展现强劲表现，受益于 AI 驱动的数据中心需求和高价值产品组合。HBM 成为核心引擎，份额已与 整体 DRAM 持平，并锁定 2026 年供给；HBM4 性能领先，预计 2026 年量产。公司在 AI SSD 和 LPDRAM 领域加速突 破，强化数据中心布局。资本开支将进一步聚焦先进 DRAM 与 HBM 产能，政府激励对冲部分投入。整体来看，美光 已形成以 HBM 和 AI 存储为核心的竞争优势，未来盈利动能可持续。 - 根据路透 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a gross margin above 50%, the highest since mid-fiscal 2022, with DRAM margins also higher than that period [42][44] - The operating margin is the highest since November 2018, indicating improved market conditions and pricing [42][44] - CapEx guidance increased from $13.8 billion in 2025 to approximately $18 billion in 2026, primarily for DRAM construction and equipment [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The NAND business is expected to improve due to increased demand from hyperscalers for AI server deployments, despite a current decrease in bits [8][9] - The company is focusing on data center SSDs, having exited the managed NAND segment to concentrate resources on higher ROI areas [11][85] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is expected to gain market share, with aspirations to exceed previous levels due to strong product performance [17][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for NAND SSDs in data centers is projected to increase significantly in calendar 2026, driven by shortages in HDDs [8][9] - The DRAM market is currently tight, with expectations for further tightening in 2026 due to robust demand and limited supply growth [40][44] - The average capacities for SSDs in AI servers are expected to escalate rapidly, with new high-capacity drives being introduced [55][57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its strong position in the data center SSD market and has announced new product launches to enhance its competitive edge [9][24] - There is a strategic focus on high-value segments such as HBM and high-capacity DIMMs, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [65][66] - The company is being thoughtful about long-term agreements with customers, considering the evolving landscape and potential tariff impacts [82][83] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about improving NAND industry conditions and the tightness in the DRAM market, which is expected to enhance pricing and margins [9][40] - The company anticipates that the HBM business will continue to provide high ROI due to its unique product capabilities and customer demand [20][49] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to the evolving AI market and the need for diverse memory solutions to meet various workloads [72][73] Other Important Information - The company is ramping up its one-gamma DRAM production, which is expected to be a significant contributor to bit growth in fiscal 2026 [47][48] - The company has achieved significant improvements in HBM3E yields and is well-positioned for the HBM4 market [61][62] - The exit from the managed NAND segment is part of a broader strategy to focus on areas with higher profitability potential [85][86] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current state of the NAND industry and pricing outlook - Management indicated that the current quarter's bit decrease is noise and that demand from hyperscalers will drive future growth in NAND [8][9] Question: CapEx guidance clarification - The company confirmed that the increase in CapEx is primarily for DRAM construction and equipment, with minimal additional NAND spending [13][14] Question: HBM market share aspirations - Management expects to gain higher market share in HBM compared to previous years, driven by strong product performance and customer demand [17][24] Question: DRAM and HBM margin comparisons - Management stated that while HBM margins are stable, the overall DRAM portfolio is expected to tighten and improve margins as demand increases [40][49] Question: Long-term agreements with customers - The company is exploring long-term agreements but is cautious about pricing and value creation in light of market changes [82][83] Question: Impact of exiting managed NAND on DRAM sales - Management reassured that exiting managed NAND would not negatively impact DRAM sales, maintaining strong relationships with customers [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][21] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [21] - EPS reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [21][22] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [22] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit generated $4.5 billion in revenue, representing 40% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 59% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business accounted for a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [11] - The outlook for total server units in calendar 2025 is expected to grow approximately 10%, up from previous mid-single-digit growth expectations [10] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][10] - The company plans to continue investing in its Japan production capability and has begun design work for a second manufacturing fab in Idaho [9][10] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand across various end markets, including data centers, PCs, and automotive, driven by AI trends [11][53] - The company anticipates continued tightness in DRAM supply and improving conditions in the NAND market [18][20] - Management expects fiscal Q1 revenue to be a record $12.5 billion, with gross margins projected at 51.5% [29] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in CapEx in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [20] - The company received a CHIPS grant disbursement for its new manufacturing fab in Idaho, with the first wafer output expected in the second half of calendar 2027 [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Management indicated that the first quarter will have a heavier DRAM mix than NAND, with expectations for a 580 basis points sequential margin expansion driven by pricing and strong execution [33][34] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated that the HBM TAM is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR outpacing DRAM CAGR [36][37] Question: Transition from HBM3 to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [42][43] Question: Sustainability of DRAM demand - Management noted strong demand across AI applications, traditional servers, and smartphones, contributing to a healthy demand-supply environment [52][53] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Management stated that the majority of CapEx in 2026 will be for DRAM, with ongoing construction and equipment investments [56][57]

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is one of the Must-Watch AI Stocks on Wall Street. On September 17, Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini raised the price target $200 from $160 on Wednesday, maintaining a Positive rating. The rating comes ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report on September 23. The firm expects Micron Technology to beat expectations and raise guidance. Moreover, it anticipates commentary that will emphasize that both average selling price and gross margin will remain strong and c ...