证 券 研 究 报 告 美光科技（MU）FY2026Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 各业务单元均创营收记录，毛利率大幅超过指引上限 会议地点：线上 事项： 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美光科技发布 FY26 Q1 报告，并召开业绩说明会。 评论： 1. 总体业绩情况：25Q4（即 FY26Q1）实现营收 136.43 亿美元（QoQ+20.6%， YoY+56.7%），高于指引中值（指引中值为 125 亿美元）。FY26Q1，公司总营 收、DRAM 和 NAND 营收、HBM 和数据中心营收以及各业务部门营收均创 纪录。公司 DRAM 和 NAND 营收创下新高得益于终端市场强劲需求推动的出 货量增长，以及行业 DRAM 和 NAND 供应紧张、定价策略有效和产品组合优 化推动的产品价格提升。FY2026Q1的Non-gaap毛利率为56.8%（QoQ+11.1pct， YoY+17.3pct），超过指引区间上限（指引为 51.5%上下浮动 100 个基点），主 要得益于更高的定价、有效的成本控制以及有利的产品组合。 2.数据中心市场预期及进展情况：公司 FY2026Q1 数据中心业务部门营收创下 24 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 21% sequentially and 57% year over year, marking a quarterly record for the third consecutive quarter [21] - DRAM revenue reached a record $10.8 billion, up 69% year over year and representing 79% of total revenue, with a sequential increase of 20% [21] - NAND revenue was a record $2.7 billion, up 22% year over year and representing 20% of total revenue, with a sequential increase of 22% [22] - Consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q1 was 56.8%, up 11 percentage points sequentially, driven by higher pricing and strong cost execution [22] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS for fiscal Q1 was $4.78, reflecting 58% sequential growth and 167% year-over-year growth [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) revenue was a record $5.3 billion, up 16% sequentially, representing 39% of total revenue [22] - Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) revenue reached a record $2.4 billion, up 51% sequentially, representing 17% of total revenue [23] - Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) revenue was a record $4.3 billion, up 13% sequentially, representing 31% of total revenue [23] - Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) revenue was a record $1.7 billion, up 20% sequentially, representing 13% of total revenue [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Server unit demand is expected to grow in the high teens percentage range for calendar 2025, higher than previous expectations [10] - PC unit sales are forecasted to grow in the high single-digit percentage range in calendar 2025, above prior expectations [12] - Smartphone unit volumes are on track to grow in the low single-digit percentage range for calendar 2025 [13] - The aggregate industry supply is expected to remain substantially short of demand for the foreseeable future, with DRAM and NAND bit demand growth expectations revised higher [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is focused on maximizing production output and ramping industry-leading technology nodes while investing in new cleanroom space to enhance supply capability [7] - The company anticipates substantial new records in revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow for both the second quarter and the full fiscal year 2026 [7] - Micron plans to increase fiscal 2026 CapEx to approximately $20 billion, primarily to support HBM supply capability and 1-gamma supply [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that AI-driven demand is accelerating, with strong year-over-year growth expected in HBM revenue [31] - The company expects tight supply-demand conditions to persist beyond 2026, with significant investments being made to address this [16][29] - Management expressed confidence in Micron's competitive position, driven by technology leadership and a differentiated product portfolio [7][8] Other Important Information - Micron generated record free cash flow of $3.9 billion in fiscal Q1, exceeding the previous record from fiscal Q4 2018 by over 20% [25] - The company reduced debt by $2.7 billion during the quarter, closing with $11.8 billion of debt and a net cash balance over $250 million [26] - Over 80% of Micron's professional workforce actively uses GenAI, significantly enhancing productivity across various functions [27] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you talk about the nature of the long-term agreements (LTAs) with customers? - Management indicated that these are multi-year contracts involving DRAM and NAND, with stronger contract structures compared to prior agreements [34] Question: Can you discuss the increase in CapEx and its implications? - Management confirmed that CapEx is increasing to support DRAM and HBM supply, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital spending [51][56] Question: How is Micron managing the tight supply environment? - Management noted that they are working to maximize production efficiencies and are focused on technology transitions to support supply growth [56][59] Question: What is the outlook for gross margins moving forward? - Management expects gross margins to expand gradually beyond fiscal Q2, driven by favorable market conditions and cost execution [92] Question: How is Micron positioned in the HBM market? - Management expressed confidence in their competitive position, highlighting strong performance and low power consumption of their HBM products [78][81]

Core Insights - Micron Technology is a leading semiconductor company focused on memory and storage products, experiencing a significant stock increase of 127% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index's gain of 17.7% [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Micron's total revenue rose by 46.7% year-on-year to $11.3 billion, with adjusted net income increasing by 156.7% to $3.03 per share [5] - The company's adjusted gross margin improved to 45.7% from 36.1% in the same quarter last year, ending fiscal 2025 with a revenue surge of 49% to $37.4 billion and adjusted earnings up by 537% [5] Market Position and Demand - The demand for Micron's products is driven by AI applications, with approximately $10 billion of fiscal 2025 revenue coming from AI-related products such as HBM and low-power DRAM for data centers [6] - Micron is strategically focusing on higher-margin opportunities by streamlining its product mix and exiting the managed NAND business, which will enhance capacity in the more profitable data center segment [7] Analyst Upgrades - BNP Paribas Exane has upgraded Micron's stock to "Outperform" and set a target price of $270, indicating an upside potential of over 40% from current levels [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in AI-driven sectors and advanced memory technologies [12][22]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant growth in the AI application landscape, with notable advancements from companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek, showcasing their competitive models [11][12]. - Micron Technology reported a record revenue of $11.3 billion for FY25Q4, driven by strong demand in data centers and a focus on high-value products like HBM and AI SSDs [12][22]. - OpenAI is expanding into the hardware sector, collaborating with key suppliers to develop consumer-grade AI devices, indicating a strategic shift towards integrated AI solutions [23]. Summary by Sections AI Application Growth - Gemini's activity has seen a substantial increase, while domestic applications like Doubao are also growing steadily [9][11]. - Alibaba's Qwen3-Omni and Qwen3-Max models have achieved significant benchmarks, outperforming competitors in various tests [11]. Micron Technology Performance - Micron's FY25Q4 revenue reached $11.3 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue accounting for 56% of total sales [12][18]. - HBM has become a core growth driver, with Q4 HBM revenue nearing $2 billion, and the company is on track to maintain its market share in DRAM [15][22]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to $18 billion in FY26, focusing on DRAM and HBM production [18][22]. OpenAI's Hardware Strategy - OpenAI is developing a pocket-sized AI device in collaboration with key suppliers, aiming to create a new category of "AI companion" devices [23]. - The initiative reflects a broader strategy to reduce reliance on cloud services and enhance user privacy, although it faces challenges in energy efficiency and market acceptance [23].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a gross margin above 50%, the highest since mid-fiscal 2022, with DRAM margins also higher than that period [42][44] - The operating margin is the highest since November 2018, indicating improved market conditions and pricing [42][44] - CapEx guidance increased from $13.8 billion in 2025 to approximately $18 billion in 2026, primarily for DRAM construction and equipment [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The NAND business is expected to improve due to increased demand from hyperscalers for AI server deployments, despite a current decrease in bits [8][9] - The company is focusing on data center SSDs, having exited the managed NAND segment to concentrate resources on higher ROI areas [11][85] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is expected to gain market share, with aspirations to exceed previous levels due to strong product performance [17][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for NAND SSDs in data centers is projected to increase significantly in calendar 2026, driven by shortages in HDDs [8][9] - The DRAM market is currently tight, with expectations for further tightening in 2026 due to robust demand and limited supply growth [40][44] - The average capacities for SSDs in AI servers are expected to escalate rapidly, with new high-capacity drives being introduced [55][57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its strong position in the data center SSD market and has announced new product launches to enhance its competitive edge [9][24] - There is a strategic focus on high-value segments such as HBM and high-capacity DIMMs, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [65][66] - The company is being thoughtful about long-term agreements with customers, considering the evolving landscape and potential tariff impacts [82][83] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about improving NAND industry conditions and the tightness in the DRAM market, which is expected to enhance pricing and margins [9][40] - The company anticipates that the HBM business will continue to provide high ROI due to its unique product capabilities and customer demand [20][49] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to the evolving AI market and the need for diverse memory solutions to meet various workloads [72][73] Other Important Information - The company is ramping up its one-gamma DRAM production, which is expected to be a significant contributor to bit growth in fiscal 2026 [47][48] - The company has achieved significant improvements in HBM3E yields and is well-positioned for the HBM4 market [61][62] - The exit from the managed NAND segment is part of a broader strategy to focus on areas with higher profitability potential [85][86] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current state of the NAND industry and pricing outlook - Management indicated that the current quarter's bit decrease is noise and that demand from hyperscalers will drive future growth in NAND [8][9] Question: CapEx guidance clarification - The company confirmed that the increase in CapEx is primarily for DRAM construction and equipment, with minimal additional NAND spending [13][14] Question: HBM market share aspirations - Management expects to gain higher market share in HBM compared to previous years, driven by strong product performance and customer demand [17][24] Question: DRAM and HBM margin comparisons - Management stated that while HBM margins are stable, the overall DRAM portfolio is expected to tighten and improve margins as demand increases [40][49] Question: Long-term agreements with customers - The company is exploring long-term agreements but is cautious about pricing and value creation in light of market changes [82][83] Question: Impact of exiting managed NAND on DRAM sales - Management reassured that exiting managed NAND would not negatively impact DRAM sales, maintaining strong relationships with customers [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][21] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [21] - EPS reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [21][22] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [22] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit generated $4.5 billion in revenue, representing 40% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 59% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business accounted for a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [11] - The outlook for total server units in calendar 2025 is expected to grow approximately 10%, up from previous mid-single-digit growth expectations [10] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][10] - The company plans to continue investing in its Japan production capability and has begun design work for a second manufacturing fab in Idaho [9][10] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand across various end markets, including data centers, PCs, and automotive, driven by AI trends [11][53] - The company anticipates continued tightness in DRAM supply and improving conditions in the NAND market [18][20] - Management expects fiscal Q1 revenue to be a record $12.5 billion, with gross margins projected at 51.5% [29] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in CapEx in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [20] - The company received a CHIPS grant disbursement for its new manufacturing fab in Idaho, with the first wafer output expected in the second half of calendar 2027 [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Management indicated that the first quarter will have a heavier DRAM mix than NAND, with expectations for a 580 basis points sequential margin expansion driven by pricing and strong execution [33][34] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated that the HBM TAM is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR outpacing DRAM CAGR [36][37] Question: Transition from HBM3 to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [42][43] Question: Sustainability of DRAM demand - Management noted strong demand across AI applications, traditional servers, and smartphones, contributing to a healthy demand-supply environment [52][53] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Management stated that the majority of CapEx in 2026 will be for DRAM, with ongoing construction and equipment investments [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology, Inc. is highlighted as a significant AI stock to watch, with a price target increase from $160 to $200 by Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini, maintaining a Positive rating ahead of the earnings report on September 23 [1]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - The firm anticipates Micron Technology will exceed expectations and provide an upward revision of guidance, with strong average selling prices and gross margins expected to persist into 2026 [2]. Group 2: Product Mix and Market Position - Concerns regarding a potential decline in High Bandwidth Memory prices in 2026 are countered by the firm, which cites Micron's shift towards higher-value products such as HBM, GDDR7, LPDRAM, and eSSD as key growth drivers [3]. - A transition from 8-high stacks in 2025 to 12-high stacks in 2026 is expected, with a projected increase of at least 50% in HBM4 Average Selling Price compared to HBM3E [4]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The firm projects a disciplined approach to capital spending across the industry, with Micron focusing on profitability rather than market share, leading to a forecast of $5 in quarterly EPS by the end of 2026 [4].