重启"金融抑制" "金融抑制"（financial repression）最早由新自由主义学派经济学家麦金农和肖在1970年代提出，指的是"政府通过各类政策将原本在自由市场环境下会流 向其他地方的资金引导至自身"[5]。这一过程往往伴随着人为压低利率曲线，以为某种公共政策目标进行廉价融资[6]。虽然新自由主义学派提出这一概念 是为了批判当时发展中国家控制汇率、利率的政策，并推崇"金融自由化"[7]，但事实上，在债务杠杆高企而政府又不得不为功能性财政买单时，"金融抑 制"不失为一种有效的手段。例如，1940年代，美国曾通过"金融抑制"的手段为政府筹款和快速调动生产潜能（参见《美国1930-1960：脱虚向实，走向复 苏》）。自1942年4月至1947年7月，美联储通过无限量购买国库券和承诺购买长债的方式配合财政，将3月期国库券利率控制在0.375%，10年期利率控制 在2.5%[8]（图表1，图表2）。 我们认为，当前特朗普政府的政策目标是明确的：即中长期看解决债务压力和产业空心化问题，而短期则是为了赢得2026年中期选举（参考《2026全球市 场展望：泡沫加速》）。前者要求财政主导、货币配合，后者则要求通胀可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming bond issuance by Wall Street's financial giants is expected to be larger than usual due to pressures from the Trump administration, potentially draining market liquidity and leading to a correction in the currently high-performing corporate bond and stock markets [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Impact - Wall Street's six major financial institutions are anticipated to lead a significant bond issuance, with estimates of around $60 billion this week, driven by the need to respond to operational pressures from the Trump administration [1][2]. - Barclays predicts that approximately $35 billion of bond issuance will come from these six financial giants this month, with the total potentially rising to $55 billion by the end of the quarter [1]. - The large-scale bond issuance may create short-term "supply pressure," tightening financial conditions and impacting credit spreads and liquidity premiums in the bond market [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Earnings Season - The earnings season for major Wall Street banks is set to begin, with analysts expecting a strong performance that could validate the bullish outlook for the S&P 500 index, projected to reach 8,000 points in 2026 [3]. - The financial giants are expected to report robust earnings, driven by a recovery in investment banking and increased trading volumes, which have pushed their stock prices to historical highs [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Pressures and Credit Card Rates - President Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, which could significantly impact the profitability of Wall Street's financial giants, particularly in their credit card businesses [4][5]. - The proposed cap is seen as a direct threat to the high-margin credit card business, which typically has interest rates around 21%, and could lead banks to tighten credit and reduce customer benefits [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Analysts expect that the demand for bank credit assets will remain strong, offsetting any supply reductions due to regulatory changes, with a projected issuance of approximately $188 billion in high-rated bonds by the six major banks in 2026, a 7% increase from the previous year [7][8]. - The outlook for the banking sector is constructive, with expectations of a recovery in net interest income (NII) and stable growth in capital markets and wealth management fees, which could support a positive operating leverage [9][10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[4] - The market had anticipated a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 96.1% prior to the meeting[7] - This marks a total of 125 basis points cut in the current cycle, with four reductions since the beginning of the cycle[16] Group 2: Divergence in Dot Plot - The dot plot indicates a widening divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members supporting 2 more cuts this year, while 6 members believe there should be no further cuts[8] - One member suggested a reduction to below 3%, implying a need for cuts exceeding 50 basis points in the next two meetings[8] - The voting showed one dissenting vote, with Stephen I. Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a median of 1.6% while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5%[9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly adjusted upward, with the Fed showing more tolerance for deviations from the 2% inflation target[9] - The Fed's statement highlighted a weakening job market as a significant reason for the rate cut, reflecting concerns over employment risks[10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.33%, respectively[4] - Short-term Treasury yields declined, with the 3-month yield dropping by 2 basis points[30] - The dollar index showed volatility, initially falling before rebounding by the close of trading[30]