两项关键利润指标同时预计为正，传递出强劲的运营改善信号。但蔚来第四季度及2025财年业绩尚未正 式披露，该公司净利润情况仍然有待进一步确认。 2026.02.06 本文字数：893，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 葛慧 受蔚来公司（NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO）单季度盈利消息影响，该公司港股开盘上涨超 5.5%。此前，蔚来美股已收盘上涨5.86%，显示出资本市场对其财务改善的积极回应。 该公司的盈利预告称，根据对未经审计合并管理账目及董事会目前可得资料所作的初步评估，预计于 2025年第四季度录得经调整经营利润（非公认会计准则）（界定为剔除股权激励费用后的经营利润）， 介乎约人民币7亿元（约1亿美元）至12亿元（约1.72亿美元），此为该公司首次录得单季度经调整经营 利润（非公认会计准则）。 此外，根据公认会计准则（GAAP）措施，该公司预计2025年第四季度营业利润将达到约2亿元人民币 （约合2900万美元）至7亿元人民币（约合1亿美元）。 在刚刚过去的2025年，蔚来公司全年交付量达到326,028辆，同比增长46.9%。蔚来公司将Q4预期调整 后的营业利润（非公认 ...

两项关键利润指标同时预计为正，传递出强劲的运营改善信号。但蔚来第四季度及2025财年业绩尚未正 式披露，该公司净利润情况仍然有待进一步确认。 在刚刚过去的2025年，蔚来公司全年交付量达到326,028辆，同比增长46.9%。蔚来公司将Q4预期调整 后的营业利润（非公认会计准则）主要归因于公司在2025年第四季度销售量的持续增长，由有利的产品 组合推动的车辆利润优化，以及公司持续的全面成本削减努力及运营效率的持续提升。 得益于新款ES8持续的订单支撑，蔚来于今年1月交付了27182辆，同比增96.1%。 美股港股齐涨。 受蔚来公司（NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO）单季度盈利消息影响，该公司港股开盘上涨超 5.5%。此前，蔚来美股已收盘上涨5.86%，显示出资本市场对其财务改善的积极回应。 该公司的盈利预告称，根据对未经审计合并管理账目及董事会目前可得资料所作的初步评估，预计于 2025年第四季度录得经调整经营利润（非公认会计准则）（界定为剔除股权激励费用后的经营利润）， 介乎约人民币7亿元（约1亿美元）至12亿元（约1.72亿美元），此为该公司首次录得单季度经调整经营 利润（非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in China's automotive industry by 2025, highlighting the rise of new cities as automotive powerhouses and the decline of traditional leaders, emphasizing the importance of innovation, government support, and strategic partnerships in shaping the future of the industry [5][6][52]. Group 1: The Rise of New Leaders - In 2025, Chongqing emerged as "China's Automotive Capital" with nearly 2.5 million vehicles produced, marking a 12.1% year-on-year increase, surpassing traditional leaders like Shanghai and Guangzhou [8][15]. - Chongqing's success is attributed to the combination of state-owned enterprises and aggressive private sector strategies, particularly the partnership between Seres and Huawei, which transformed traditional manufacturing into high-end smart vehicle production [16][17]. - Hefei became the "New Energy Capital" with over 1.246 million new energy vehicles produced, showcasing a model of government investment and strategic partnerships with companies like NIO and Volkswagen [21][23]. Group 2: The Decline of Traditional Leaders - Shenzhen, once a leader with nearly 3 million vehicles produced in 2024, saw its data become ambiguous in 2025 due to changes in statistical methods that shifted focus from corporate registration to actual production locations [28][30]. - Guangzhou experienced a 20% decline in traditional vehicle production, primarily due to the slow transition of Japanese automakers to electric vehicles, highlighting the risks of reliance on outdated business models [45]. - Shanghai's production remained strong at 1.6 million vehicles, but without Tesla's contribution, the figures would be significantly lower, indicating challenges in revitalizing the local automotive supply chain [46]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Insights - The competition in the automotive industry is shifting from "production capacity" to "supply chain integration," with cities like Hefei and Chongqing demonstrating the importance of a comprehensive ecosystem that includes manufacturing and technology [49]. - The future of the automotive sector will increasingly depend on advanced technologies such as AI and automated driving, positioning cities with strong tech capabilities, like Beijing, for potential advantages [50]. - The article emphasizes the growing "Matthew Effect" in urban development, where leading cities attract more resources and talent, while smaller cities face significant challenges, potentially leading to a decline in their automotive industries [51].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings reports from new car manufacturers, with Morgan Stanley predicting that performance will meet expectations, but the real interest lies in whether Q4 will show operational improvements [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Overview - Key indicators for Q3 performance include vehicle gross margin and operational expense control, which are critical for assessing the quality of earnings [1] - NIO is expected to show a significant narrowing of losses, while Li Auto maintains profitability but with declining profits, and Xpeng's losses are projected to remain stable compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Xpeng Motors - Xpeng's Q3 delivery volume reached 116,000 units, a 12% year-over-year increase, aligning with company guidance [3] - Revenue is expected to be 20.4 billion RMB, consistent with guidance, indicating stable average selling prices [3] - Vehicle gross margin is projected to increase slightly from 14.3% to 14.5%, with overall gross margin remaining stable at around 17.2% [3][4] Group 3: Li Auto - Li Auto's Q3 delivery volume was 93,000 units, meeting guidance, but revenue is expected to decline by 15% to 25.7 billion RMB due to changes in sales mix and increased discounts [7] - Vehicle gross margin is expected to remain at 19.4%, while overall gross margin is projected at 21%, with total gross profit around 5.4 billion RMB [8] - The company anticipates an operational loss of 200 million RMB for Q3, a significant improvement from an 800 million RMB profit in Q2, with net profit expected to be 300 million RMB [8] Group 4: NIO - NIO's Q3 delivery volume is projected at 87,000 units, a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase, with revenue expected to be 21.9 billion RMB [10] - Vehicle gross margin is anticipated to rise to 12.5%, while overall gross margin is expected to be around 10.9% [10] - NIO is expected to narrow its net loss from 5 billion RMB in Q2 to approximately 4.3 billion RMB in Q3, with operational expenses decreasing from 7 billion RMB to 6.7 billion RMB [10] - For Q4, NIO forecasts a potential delivery surge of 72% to 150,000 units, driven by new models and brand strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities believes that NIO has successfully reversed its sales decline due to strong sales of new models, but its financial situation remains fragile [1][3][4]. Sales Performance - NIO has turned around its sales slump with strong orders for new models, particularly the Lido L90 and the new ES8, which have solid demand [3][5]. - The Lido L90 model maintains an order volume of 2,000 to 3,000 units per week, while confirmed orders for the new ES8 have approached 50,000 units, exceeding the production capacity for the remainder of 2025 [5][6]. Financial Situation - Despite the temporary alleviation of sales challenges, NIO's financial condition is still considered weak compared to its competitors [4][7]. - A key detail is that the company's shareholder equity has only recently turned positive after a recent equity offering, indicating an unstable financial foundation [7]. Profitability Forecast - Nomura has adjusted its financial forecasts for NIO, indicating short-term pressure but long-term improvement [8]. - The delivery forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been reduced by 9.5% to 352,000 units, and revenue for the same year has been cut by 11.7% due to transitional impacts [8]. - However, thanks to strong momentum from new models, delivery forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.9% and 12.7%, respectively [8]. - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate of 32% for NIO's revenue from fiscal years 2024 to 2027 [8]. Rating and Target Price - Nomura maintains a "neutral" rating on NIO and has raised the target price from $5.00 to $8.40, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current closing price of $6.91 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's latest report indicates that NIO's "self-redemption" has begun but is far from complete, with a significant price target increase from $5.00 to $8.40 while maintaining a "neutral" rating, suggesting a 22% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - NIO has successfully turned around its sales slump due to strong demand for its new models, the L90 and the new ES8, with weekly order volumes for the L90 ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 units and confirmed orders for the new ES8 nearing 50,000 units, exceeding production capacity for the remainder of 2025 [2][3]. - The strong order book provides a solid foundation for delivery growth in the second half of 2025, and if NIO continues this strategy with new models next year, the growth outlook remains optimistic [2]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - Despite resolving demand challenges, NIO's financial situation remains fragile compared to competitors, with shareholder equity only recently turning positive after a capital raise, indicating an unstable financial foundation [3]. - Analysts suggest that NIO may require further investment to maintain operations, especially considering the typical sales slowdown in the first half of the year [3]. Group 3: Profitability Forecast - Nomura has adjusted its financial forecasts for NIO, reflecting short-term pressures but long-term improvements, with a 9.5% reduction in 2025 delivery forecasts to 352,000 units and an 11.7% decrease in revenue projections for the same year [4]. - However, due to strong demand for new models, delivery forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.9% and 12.7%, respectively, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 32% for revenue from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - The gross margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been slightly lowered by 0.2 to 1.2 percentage points due to the "price-for-volume" strategy, but operating profit margin expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised, with a forecast for NIO to achieve breakeven by the fiscal year 2027 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 4000 points in the second half of the year, driven by various funding sources and favorable policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, marking a ten-year high, with total market turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive days [2]. - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is supported by five main funding sources: bond market, real estate, foreign capital inflow, household savings relocation, and funds from overcapacity industries [2][3]. Group 2: Corporate Developments - Alibaba has restructured its business framework, consolidating its operations into four main segments: Alibaba China E-commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and all other businesses [8]. - Didi and other ride-hailing platforms have announced a reduction in commission rates, with Didi lowering its maximum commission from 29% to 27% by the end of the year [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Li Ning reported a revenue of 14.82 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit was 1.74 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 11.7% [16]. - Shede Spirits reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, with a net profit of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% [17]. Group 4: Product Launches and Innovations - Tesla's Model Y L will integrate AI models from ByteDance's Volcano Engine for enhanced interactive experiences [4]. - The game "Love and Deep Space" developed by Paper Games won the Best Mobile Game award at the 2025 Cologne Game Show, with global player numbers exceeding 70 million [5].

Macro Economy - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [2] - From January to July 2025, 36,133 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 13.4% to 467.34 billion yuan [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released interim measures for the total quantity control of rare earth mining and separation, indicating state control over these activities [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for a halt to malicious competition below cost and emphasized a shift towards high-quality competition driven by innovation [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to stabilize the live pig market by conducting central frozen pork reserve purchases [2] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued measures to support the construction of a cross-strait integration development demonstration zone in Fujian, allowing Taiwanese residents to apply for housing loans under the same conditions as local residents [2] Investment News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released interim regulations for internet marketing management by futures companies, effective from October 9, 2025 [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, with trading volume exceeding 2.57 trillion yuan on August 22, marking a record-breaking streak of eight consecutive trading days above 2 trillion yuan [4] - Over 1,100 actively managed equity funds reached historical net asset value highs in the past three trading days, with 98% of these funds yielding positive returns averaging 20.14% year-to-date [4] - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs has seen its total scale exceed 110 billion yuan, growing approximately 307% from its initial size [4] - The Hang Seng Index will adjust its constituent stocks, increasing the number from 85 to 88, effective September 8, 2025 [5] Company Movements - NIO's CEO stated that maintaining high prices would hinder market competitiveness, noting that the cost of the new ES8 is significantly lower than the previous model while still maintaining a profit margin [7] - Alibaba restructured its business segments on its official website, categorizing them into four main groups without changing the internal reporting structure [7] - Tesla partnered with Volcano Engine to provide large model services for its new Model Y L, integrating two models through Volcano Engine [7] - Jiangsu Guotai plans to use up to 12 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management, focusing on low-risk financial products [7] - Dongfeng Motor Group announced that its subsidiary, Lantu Motors, will go public in Hong Kong through an introduction, while Dongfeng Group will simultaneously complete its privatization [8]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's CEO Li Bin emphasized that maintaining high prices would hinder the company's competitiveness in the market, stating that the most important aspect is for NIO to survive [1] Group 1: Pricing Strategy - Li Bin indicated that the cost of the new ES8 is significantly lower than that of the previous model, yet it still maintains a profit margin at the current price [1] - The company is facing pressure to adjust its pricing strategy to remain competitive in the electric vehicle market [1] Group 2: Company Survival - Li Bin reiterated that the priority for NIO is to ensure its survival in the competitive landscape of the automotive industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's CEO Li Bin stated that maintaining high prices would hinder the company's ability to compete in the market, emphasizing that the survival of NIO is the most important factor [1] Group 1 - The new ES8 has a significantly lower cost compared to the previous model, yet it still maintains a profit margin at the current price [1] - The company is focusing on competitive pricing to ensure its market presence and sustainability [1]