上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 11 月 26 日 名创优品 (MNSO) ——各业态同店持续改善，创新店态加速全国布局 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,839 | 16,994 | 21,330 | 24,804 | 28,448 | | 同比增长率（%） | 39.4 | 22.8 | 25.5 | 16.3 | 14.7 | | 非 IFRS 准则净利润（百万元） | 2,357 | 2,721 | 2,832 | 3,378 | 3,984 | | 同比增长率（%） | 109.7 | 15.4 | 4.1 | 19.3 | 17.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 7.54 | 8.73 | 9.08 | 10.84 | 12.78 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 27.7 | 27.8 | 23.3 | 20.7 | 18.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and strategic direction of MINISO, emphasizing the importance of a strong business model for long-term returns and the challenges faced in maintaining competitive pricing and profitability in the retail sector [1][12]. Financial Performance - MINISO reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, achieving a record high for a single quarter. Gross profit rose by 28% to 2.58 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31% to 441 million RMB, while adjusted net profit increased by 12% to 767 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue was 4.427 billion RMB, up 18.9%, but operating profit fell by 4.51% to 710 million RMB, and net profit dropped by 28.92% to 417 million RMB. Adjusted net profit was 587 million RMB, down 4.81%, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [3]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 4.97 billion RMB, a 23.1% increase, with a gross margin of 44.3%. Operating profit grew by 11.3% to 836 million RMB, while net profit was 489.5 million RMB, down from 591.4 million RMB in the previous year [3]. Business Segments - MINISO brand revenue was 5.22 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% increase, while TOP TOY brand revenue surged by 111.4% to 570 million RMB. The total number of stores globally reached 8,138, with 7,831 MINISO stores and 307 TOP TOY stores [1]. - The same-store GMV showed single-digit growth across the group, with MINISO in China experiencing high single-digit growth, indicating a stable base in the domestic market [1]. Business Model Analysis - The article critiques MINISO's business model, questioning whether it aligns more with unique product offerings or cost efficiency. The current strategy appears to lean towards the former, aiming for distinctive product strength rather than merely competing on price [5][12]. - The founder's past assertion of a "quality at low price" model is challenged, as the current gross margin exceeds 50%, suggesting that the pricing strategy may not be as competitive as claimed [6][8]. - The company is seen as focusing on brand and IP management rather than traditional retail efficiency, which may limit its ability to compete on price against discount retailers [12][9]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive pressures faced by MINISO, particularly from established players in the market. The potential for competitors to offer lower prices poses a significant risk to MINISO's market position [12][15]. - The discussion includes comparisons with other brands, such as Bubble Mart, which operates on a unique product model with higher gross margins, suggesting that MINISO's strategy may not be sustainable in the long term [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - MINISO has recorded a profit decline for the second time in four years, but management remains optimistic about operational performance, highlighting positive same-store sales growth and strong domestic business performance despite the impact of its investment in Yonghui Supermarket [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with operating profit of 1.546 billion yuan, up 3.4%. However, net profit fell to 906 million yuan, a decrease of 23.1% [1][3]. - Yonghui Supermarket, in which MINISO holds a 29.4% stake, reported a total revenue of 29.948 billion yuan, down 20.73%, and a net loss of 241 million yuan in the same period, significantly affecting MINISO's financials [4][5]. Operational Highlights - MINISO's same-store sales in mainland China showed low single-digit positive growth, and the total number of stores reached 7,612, with 4,305 in mainland China and 3,307 overseas [6][12]. - The management provided optimistic guidance for the third quarter, expecting revenue growth of 25%-28% and a double-digit increase in adjusted operating profit [6][7]. IP Strategy - MINISO is focusing on developing its own IP, aiming to replicate the success of Pop Mart, with plans to enhance its product development and marketing capabilities through strategic partnerships with original toy artists [10][12]. - The company has signed contracts with nine promising toy artists and aims to significantly increase this number, indicating a long-term commitment to building its own IP [10][12]. Market Positioning - MINISO's expansion strategy relies heavily on a partner system, contrasting with Pop Mart's more restrained approach to store openings, which may affect the market acceptance of its self-owned IP [12][13]. - The company is also implementing a strategy of opening larger stores, with 11 MINISO LAND stores and one MINISO SPACE store established in key cities, aiming to enhance customer experience and brand image [15].

Core Viewpoint - MINISO has recorded a profit decline for the first time in four years, primarily due to losses from its investment in Yonghui Supermarket, but management remains optimistic about operational performance and growth prospects [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and operating profit of 1.546 billion yuan, up 3.4%. However, net profit fell to 906 million yuan, a decrease of 23.1% [2][4]. - Yonghui Supermarket reported total revenue of 29.948 billion yuan, down 20.73%, with a net loss of 241 million yuan for the same period [4][5]. - MINISO's management highlighted that the loss from Yonghui Supermarket impacted profits by 119 million yuan, mainly from the shareholding proportion [5]. Operational Highlights - MINISO's same-store sales showed positive growth, and domestic business performance exceeded expectations, while overseas expansion continued steadily [2][6]. - As of June 30, 2025, MINISO had a total of 7,612 stores globally, with 4,305 in mainland China and 3,307 overseas, reflecting a net increase of 30 and 94 stores respectively in the second quarter [6][11]. Future Growth Expectations - Management expects group revenue to grow by 25%-28% in the third quarter, with adjusted operating profit projected to increase by double digits [6][7]. - For the full year 2025, MINISO anticipates revenue growth of no less than 25%, surpassing previous expectations of 22.8% [6][7]. IP Development Strategy - MINISO is focusing on developing its own IP, aiming to replicate the success of Pop Mart, and has signed contracts with nine promising original toy artists [8][10]. - The company plans to enhance its product development, marketing, and channel advantages through self-owned IP, aiming for global influence [9][10]. Market Positioning - MINISO's expansion strategy relies heavily on a partner system, contrasting with Pop Mart's more restrained approach to store growth [11][12]. - The company is implementing a strategy of opening larger stores, with significant sales performance reported from its MINISO LAND flagship store [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.9%, while net profit decreased by 28.9% to 417 million yuan [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587 million yuan, a decline of 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in overseas market revenue and improvements in product mix [2]. - The MINISO brand revenue grew by 16.5% year-on-year, with overseas revenue increasing by 30.3% due to a 24.6% rise in average store count [2]. - The total number of stores reached 7,768 by the end of Q1 2025, with a net decrease of 12 stores, while domestic stores decreased by 111 and overseas stores increased by 95 [3]. - The company returned a total of 990 million yuan to shareholders, including 100 million USD in cash dividends and 260 million yuan in share buybacks [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 20.415 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.1% [5]. - The projected profit attributable to equity shareholders for 2025 is 2.701 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.16 yuan [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.8% for 2025 [12]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on optimizing store quality and structure domestically while maintaining significant investments in overseas markets [4]. - The report highlights the importance of releasing operational leverage in overseas markets during peak seasons [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit, indicating robust operational momentum and effective brand strategies [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 16.99 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.62 billion yuan, up 16.2% [3]. - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 4.71 billion yuan, a 22.7% increase year-on-year, and a profit of 810 million yuan, reflecting a 26.7% growth [3]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 44.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 gross margin reaching 47.0%, up 3.9 percentage points [4]. - The MINISO brand revenue for 2024 was 16 billion yuan, growing by 22.0%, driven by a 10.9% increase in domestic revenue and a 41.9% increase in overseas revenue [4]. Brand and Market Expansion - The company expanded its store network significantly, adding over 600 stores internationally, bringing the total to 7,504 MINISO stores and 276 TOP TOY stores by the end of 2024 [5]. - The opening of the MINISO LAND store in Beijing introduced an immersive IP experience, enhancing brand engagement and customer attraction [5].

Financial Overview - The total revenue for FY24 is 17 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%, with an average store count increase of 18% and same-store sales showing a slight decline in low single digits [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.9%, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth, primarily driven by the IP strategy [2][3] - The adjusted net profit for FY24 was 6.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.41% [1] Revenue Breakdown - MINISO brand revenue reached 16 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year, with domestic revenue at 9.3 billion RMB (up 11%) and international revenue at 6.7 billion RMB (up 42%) [1][2] - The overseas revenue accounted for 39% of total revenue, an increase from 34% the previous year [1] Store Expansion - As of December 2024, the total number of stores reached 7,780, with a net increase of 1,290 stores, exceeding the opening targets for 2024 [3][4] - The number of MINISO stores in China reached 4,386, with a net increase of 460 stores [4] Membership and Customer Engagement - Global registered members exceeded 100 million, with member purchases accounting for over 60% of total sales, and average member spending being 2.2 times that of non-members [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic revenue growth outlook for 2025, anticipating lower growth rates in the first half due to base effects, with higher growth expected in the second half [2] - The store expansion strategy aims to double the number of stores by the end of 2028 compared to the end of 2023 [2]