商贸零售 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《马年春节消费稳健恢复，老铺黄金 宣 布 2 月 底 调 价 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.23 投资主线一（黄金珠宝）：关注具备差异化产品力和消费者洞察力的黄金珠宝品 牌，重点推荐潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福等，受益标的周生生等； 投资主线二（线下零售）：关注顺应趋势变革探索的线下零售企业和 AI 赋能跨 境电商龙头，重点推荐永辉超市、爱婴室、吉宏股份、赛维时代等； 投资主线三（化妆品）：关注满足情绪价值和安全成分创新的国货品牌，重点推 荐毛戈平、珀莱雅、上美股份、巨子生物、润本股份，受益标的林清轩等； 投资主线四（医美）：关注差异化医美产品厂商和持续并购扩张的连锁医美机构， 重点推荐美丽田园医疗健康、爱美客、科笛-B、朗姿股份等。 《美团拟收购叮咚买菜，打造即时零 售供应链优势—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《功效护肤品牌 HBN 母公司护家科 技递表港交所—行业周报》-2 ...

当前机构目标均价为0.89港元，较2月23日收盘价0.39港元有约128%上行空间。仅1家机构覆盖，目标价 区间为0.89港元，静态看估值修复空间较大，但需关注行业分化和公司基本面压力。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 近一周（2026年2月20日至23日）联华超市股价区间涨跌幅4.05%，振幅10.81%，2月23日收盘价0.39港 元（单日涨跌幅0.00%）。技术面显示MACD柱状图从0.003升至0.005，KDJ的J线从54.504升至60.635， 短期动能增强。资金流向方面，2月23日总净流入1.16万港元，散户资金净流入1.16万港元。 机构观点 经济观察网 2026年2月23日雪贝财经报道指出，中国线下零售行业呈现极端分化，联华超市2024年营收 同比下滑30%，其母公司嘉悦控股旗下世纪联华关闭门店达1009家，占全国超市关店总数（3037家）约 三分之一。行业整体向"哑铃型"格局演变，传统商超面临结构性出清压力。 股票近期走势 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持商贸零售板块"优于大市"评级。当前金价波动对板块虽 有短期情绪影响，但在当前行业增长逻辑转向依赖品牌建设、工艺创新和文化叙事能力带来的"α收 益"下，预计实际基本面影响相对平稳。AI未来有望在持续赋能品牌业务发展的过程中，实现业务增长 新曲线的开拓。 2025年底海内外市场经过一定涨幅之后市场震荡有所加大，从牛市轮动角度，新的一年消费板块不排除 在政策边际加码情况下来迎来一定弹性。 国信证券主要观点如下： 黄金珠宝金价波动不改龙头长期成长 今年以来，金价出现较大幅度波动，COMEX黄金开年至1月29日涨幅为12.28%，但1月30日单日取得跌 幅8.35%。当前金价波动对板块虽有短期情绪影响，但在当前行业增长逻辑转向依赖品牌建设、工艺创 新和文化叙事能力带来的"α收益"下，预计实际基本面影响相对平稳。一方面，参考2013年金价回调后 带来抢购潮并延续数月的投资购买热情，投资金业务为主的企业短期业绩仍有进一步增长支撑;另一方 面，具备价差优势并且港澳经营能力突出的港资珠宝品牌，以及近年来产品设计或差异化能力较好或综 合优势明显的头部企业，有望继续强化自身业务优势，实现 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating a rebound in consumer spending due to potential policy support and low valuations in the sector [3][51] - Gold jewelry sector remains resilient despite price fluctuations, with a focus on brand building, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural storytelling driving long-term growth [1][12] - AI applications are expected to create new growth opportunities for online service providers, enhancing their capabilities in consumer insights and brand marketing strategies [2][19] Group 2: Gold Jewelry Sector - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 12.28% until January 29, followed by a single-day drop of 8.35% on January 30, impacting short-term market sentiment but not the long-term growth logic of leading companies [1][12] - Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business, such as Cai Bai Co., are projected to see substantial revenue growth, with expected net profits for 2025 ranging from 1.06 to 1.23 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [14][18] Group 3: AI and E-commerce - The introduction of AI technologies is reshaping industry dynamics, particularly in e-commerce, where the shift from traditional search to generative AI dialogue is expected to transform brand marketing strategies [20][21] - Online service providers are positioned to leverage deep partnerships with leading e-commerce platforms, enhancing their ability to generate content and optimize marketing efforts through AI [21][23] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the gold jewelry sector, companies like Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Chow Tai Fook are recommended due to their strong growth potential and low valuations [3][51] - In the beauty and personal care sector, companies such as Proya Cosmetics and Mao Geping are highlighted for their innovative product launches and platform strategies [3][51] - Cross-border e-commerce leaders like Small Commodity City and Anker Innovations are expected to benefit from AI applications that enhance cost efficiency and product innovation [3][51] - Offline retail is anticipated to see a boost during the peak sales season, with companies like Miniso and Yonghui Superstores recommended for their growth prospects [3][51]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating potential for growth in the consumer market, particularly in the jewelry and beauty segments, as well as cross-border e-commerce [3][51]. - Fluctuations in gold prices have short-term emotional impacts on the jewelry sector, but the long-term growth logic remains intact, driven by brand building, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural storytelling [1][12]. - AI applications are rapidly being integrated into the retail sector, particularly through online service providers, which are leveraging deep partnerships with major e-commerce platforms to enhance consumer insights and brand strategies [2][19]. Group 2: Industry Summaries - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with a high proportion of investment gold business, such as Cai Bai Co., are expected to achieve stable growth despite short-term price fluctuations, with projected net profits for 2025 expected to increase by 47.43% to 71.07% [1][14]. - The beauty and personal care sector is seeing a return to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery and new product launches expected to drive growth [3][51]. - Cross-border e-commerce leaders have demonstrated strong resilience against risks, with AI applications expected to enhance cost efficiency and product innovation, providing a catalyst for sustained growth [3][51]. Group 3: Recent Industry Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, indicating a weak overall growth trend influenced by high base effects from the previous year [24][30]. - Online retail sales for the year reached 159,722 billion yuan, growing by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales, reflecting a slight increase in penetration [25][30]. - The jewelry category saw a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in December, supported by rising prices and holiday gifting demand, while the cosmetics category grew by 8.8% due to promotional activities and consumption upgrades [30].

Core Viewpoint - The silver economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating that the market size will exceed 16 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the evolving consumption habits of the new generation of elderly consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2019, the market size of China's silver economy reached 4.3 trillion yuan, growing to 7.1 trillion yuan in 2023, and is expected to further increase to 8.3 trillion yuan in 2024. By 2030, the overall market size is anticipated to surpass 16.2 trillion yuan, indicating substantial potential for the silver economy [2]. - The new generation of elderly consumers exhibits significant differences in wealth levels, family structures, and consumption habits compared to previous generations, prompting companies to adapt their business strategies to meet these new consumer demands [2]. Group 2: Retail Sector - Leading retail companies such as Bailian Group and Chongqing Department Store are developing business models tailored to the purchasing habits and preferences of elderly consumers, addressing both social and purchasing needs [2]. - Supermarket chains like Hema and Yonghui are enhancing their product offerings and introducing "silver community canteens" to increase foot traffic and conversion rates among elderly shoppers [2]. Group 3: Gold and Jewelry Sector - Middle-aged and elderly consumers have historically been the primary market for gold products, driven by a focus on value preservation and brand loyalty. Companies like Caibai and Lao Fengxiang are leveraging their strong brand foundations to cater to this demographic [3]. - These companies are enhancing their product offerings through collaborations and improving customer loyalty via robust after-sales services, positioning themselves to benefit from the expanding customer base [3]. Group 4: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The proportion of elderly consumers in the beauty and medical aesthetics markets is steadily increasing, with significant growth potential in both volume and pricing, similar to trends observed in mature overseas markets [4]. - Leading companies with strong upstream raw material capabilities and comprehensive solutions, such as Huaxi Biological and Aimeike, are expected to benefit from the rising sales among elderly consumers [4]. - Companies focused on elderly care, like Kelaibao, are also poised to gain from the expanding target audience in the personal care sector [4].

五源资本 5Y Capital . 五源寻找、支持、激励孤独的创业者，为其提供从精神到所有经营运作的支持。我们相信，如果别人眼 中疯狂的你，开始被相信，世界将会别开生面。 来源丨 五源资本 5Y Capital （ID： the5ycap ） 作者丨崔志远 以下文章来源于五源资本 5Y Capital ，作者崔志远 1月28日，"鸣鸣很忙"正式在港交所上市了（1768.HK）。 从县城街头一路到港交所，作为 A++ 轮的领投方，五源这几年不仅是支持者，也是一个近距离的观 察者。在上市的里程碑时刻，五源执行总监崔志远分享了他的投资笔记。 回看2023年那个充满挑战的节点，五源为什么敢于出手？背后其实不是简单的"便宜"，而是一场关 于中国零售效率的深刻实验。 在很多人眼里，它是"消费降级"的产物，但在我们看来，这四个字概括不了它的生命力。这其实是一 个中国特有的零售新物种，核心不是简单的低价，而是对流通效率的变革。 以下是当时的一些关键思考，分享给大家。 五源执行总监 崔志远 投资笔记速览： 中国庞大且具备深度纵深的内需市场，面向消费者的产品与服务创新，一直是五源持续深耕、重点布 局的核心方向。从智能手机、短视频 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in domestic consumption, leading to an 11.8% year-on-year increase in sales for South Korean online retail platforms in 2025 [1][3] - Major online retail companies have experienced continuous sales growth across various sectors, including grocery, food delivery services, and home appliances [1][3] Group 2 - In contrast, offline retailers have seen limited sales growth of only 0.4%, primarily due to poor performance in the first half of the year [2][4] - The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea noted that while offline retail sales declined in the first half, a rebound occurred in the second half following the implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption by the Lee Jae-myung government [2][4] - Specifically, department store sales grew by 4.3% in 2025, convenience store sales remained nearly unchanged, while supermarket sales declined by 4.2% due to intensified competition with online food platforms [2][4]

线下消费，冰火两重天。 一边是社区超市门店数以超过30%的速度狂奔，零食量贩、潮流玩具店攻城略地；另一边是核心商圈的部分百货门庭冷落，曾经稳坐钓鱼台的轻奢品牌、 钻石专卖店悄然收缩。 为何黄金地段的店铺不再保险？为何过去代表消费升级风向标的品类，如今反成拖累？ 增长的共性规律似乎消失了，这种近乎撕裂的图景，构成了当下行业最普遍的集体焦虑。 当摒弃泛泛而谈的"回暖"或"遇冷"，将目光投向具体品类的数据时，虽然隐蔽却明确的逻辑主线便开始浮现。 宏观周期的波动，本质上来源于消费价值的变化。 2026年线下生意怎么才好做？什么品类有更多机会？有哪些新的趋势？ 沥金联合久谦中台，提取了若干线下零售品类的门店和经营数据，希望为读者呈现一幅关于线下消费生态的清晰图解。 要么更快更方便，要么好体验更专业 线下的生意，正在分成两种做法。 一种是解决日常所需的社区便利店，关键是"快"和"方便"，另一种是频次低但数额大的重要消费，关键是"体验"和"专业"。 日常消费显然更追求效率，这类消费的核心价值在于贴近与便利。 消费者不再期待在这里进行大规模采购，而是需要它像毛细血管一样渗透在生活半径内，满足随机的、临时的需求。 食品烟酒、水 ...