以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者苗正卿 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 值得注意的是，根据最新公开数据显示，目前盒马整体门店总数约为900家左右，其中盒马鲜生大约有500家， 超盒算NB 400家。据虎嗅此前掌握的数据显示，2025年盒马鲜生大约新增门店80余个，基于严筱磊此次透露 年内超盒算NB新增超过200家门店，计算后可以得出，盒马鲜生年内门店增速约为19%，而超盒算NB的门店增 速约为87%。 超盒算NB增速在年内骤增主要原因是盒马将其明确为两大战略重心之一，目的是向社区场景重点渗透。而这个 扩张速度还有望进一步提高，超盒算NB在11月开放了四城加盟，2026年加盟效应有望扩大。虎嗅获悉，盒马 会通过前期调研判断出最适合开设超盒算NB的区域点位，然后邀请在这个区域有影响力、有资源整合能力的投 资者参与加盟，并基于这些投资者的人脉、实力迅速在这个区域裂变。 内部信的另一个关键信息，与盒马的收入情况有关。据悉，盒马在2025年整体营收同比增速超过40%，服务消 费者数超过1亿。基于40%增速这个数据和去年盒马的GMV，虎嗅推测，到2026年3月财年结束，盒马GMV将 超过1000亿元。 出品 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors [6][33] - Companies like潮宏基 and毛戈平 are leveraging multi-channel strategies to enhance brand visibility and product sales, indicating a strong market presence [26][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2462.73 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.88% [5][15] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 10.00%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.26% rise [15][19] Company Highlights - **潮宏基**: Achieved a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase [42] - **毛戈平**: Launched the "琉光赋活" skincare series, set to debut on January 1, 2026, focusing on high-end skincare needs [31] - **周大福**: Reported a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, a slight decrease of 1.1%, but with a net profit increase of 0.1% [39] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending潮宏基 and老铺黄金 as key players [6][33] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasis on companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for永辉超市 and爱婴室 [6][33] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending毛戈平 and珀莱雅 [6][34] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical aesthetic chains, with recommendations for爱美客 and科笛-B [6][34]

Core Viewpoint - There are market rumors that Dingdong Maicai (DDL.US) may be acquired by JD.com, leading to a pre-market increase of over 4% in Dingdong's stock price to $2.84. Both companies have not commented on the speculation [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dingdong Maicai reported Q2 2025 revenue of 5.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [1] - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the same period was 6.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1] - The total number of orders increased by 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 100 million yuan, which is a 59.7% year-on-year increase, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of profitability [1] - Under Non-GAAP standards, the net profit was 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.9%, and the company has achieved Non-GAAP profitability for 11 consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Industry Context - JD.com has been expanding its offline retail market, with its self-operated supermarket chain, JD Seven Fresh, rapidly opening new locations [1] - The first store of JD Seven Fresh in Shijiazhuang opened on December 19, featuring a variety of products including fresh vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs, beverages, snacks, baked goods, seafood, and household items [1]

Core Viewpoint - There are market rumors that Dingdong Maicai (DDL.US) may be acquired by JD.com, leading to a pre-market increase of over 4% in Dingdong Maicai's stock price to $2.84. Both companies have not commented on the speculation [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Dingdong Maicai reported Q2 2025 revenue of 5.98 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [1]. - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the same period was 6.5 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - The total number of orders increased by 5.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 100 million yuan, which is a significant year-on-year growth of 59.7%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of profitability [1]. - Under Non-GAAP standards, the net profit was 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, and the company has achieved Non-GAAP profitability for 11 consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - JD.com has been expanding its offline retail market presence, with its self-operated supermarket chain, JD Seven Fresh, rapidly opening new locations [1]. - The first store of JD Seven Fresh in Shijiazhuang opened on December 19, featuring a variety of products including fresh vegetables, fruits, meat, eggs, beverages, snacks, baked goods, seafood, and daily necessities [1].

Group 1: Core Insights - The disparity in online retail penetration between China (30%) and the U.S. (16%) is significant, indicating different market dynamics and maturity levels [1][2] - U.S. e-commerce is not merely lagging behind but is in a mature market with strong offline competitors like Walmart and Costco, leading to structural differentiation rather than total growth [2][3] - The U.S. retail landscape is characterized by a robust offline infrastructure that complicates the growth of e-commerce, as traditional retailers provide high efficiency and experience [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. e-commerce market, valued at over $1.1 trillion, is supported by a $7 trillion retail base, despite a lower penetration rate [4] - The competition in the U.S. e-commerce space is shifting towards specific niches where traditional retailers cannot compete, such as extreme low pricing, traffic stimulation, and fresh food delivery [4][10] - Amazon, while still a leader, faces challenges from low-cost competitors and content-driven e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop, which leverage social media for sales [5][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Companies like Temu and Shein are disrupting the U.S. market by utilizing Chinese supply chains to offer low prices without the burden of high logistics costs [7][8] - TikTok Shop is transforming its video content into e-commerce opportunities, presenting a new avenue for merchants seeking alternatives to Amazon [9] - Walmart has successfully adapted to the e-commerce landscape by utilizing its extensive store network for efficient fresh food delivery, surpassing Amazon in this segment [12] Group 4: Key Companies - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Despite facing competition, Amazon maintains a strong retail market share of approximately 37% and continues to perform well in core categories like consumer electronics [13][14] - **Walmart (WMT)**: Walmart is evolving into a full-channel giant, with its e-commerce business growing over 20% for seven consecutive quarters, driven by its fresh food offerings [15] - **PDD Holdings (PDD)**: Temu is transitioning to a model that enhances its pricing power and logistics efficiency, targeting Amazon's mid-tier merchant ecosystem [16] - **Shopify (SHOP)**: Shopify is leveraging AI to enhance traffic distribution and improve monetization rates, moving beyond its initial role as a platform provider [17] - **Instacart (CART)**: Instacart dominates the U.S. third-party fresh food delivery market, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from high-margin advertising [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant disparity in online retail penetration between China and the U.S., with China's online retail sales approaching 30% while the U.S. remains around 16%. This difference is attributed to the maturity of the U.S. retail market, which is dominated by strong offline players like Walmart and Costco, leading to a more complex competitive landscape for e-commerce in the U.S. [4][5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. e-commerce market is not simply lagging behind China but is characterized by a mature offline retail system that provides high efficiency and experience, making it difficult for e-commerce to replace traditional retail. Instead, e-commerce serves as a supplement to offline shopping [5][6]. - The U.S. retail market, valued at $7 trillion, supports a substantial e-commerce sector worth over $1.1 trillion, despite a lower penetration rate [6]. - The competitive landscape in the U.S. is shifting from total growth to structural differentiation, focusing on specific niches where traditional retailers cannot compete effectively, such as extreme low prices, traffic stimulation, and fresh food delivery [6][13]. Group 2: Competitive Challenges - Amazon, while still a leader in infrastructure, faces significant challenges from low-cost competitors and new traffic sources, particularly from companies like Temu and Shein, which leverage Chinese supply chains to offer lower prices without the need for expensive logistics in the U.S. [8][10][11]. - TikTok Shop is emerging as a powerful player in the e-commerce space, converting its vast short video traffic into purchasing power, contrasting with Amazon's traditional search-based model [12]. - In the fresh grocery segment, Walmart has overtaken Amazon with a 25% market share compared to Amazon's 22%, due to Walmart's effective use of its extensive store network to reduce delivery costs and enhance customer experience [15]. Group 3: Key Companies - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Despite facing competition, Amazon maintains a strong retail market share of around 37% and continues to perform well in core categories, such as consumer electronics [17]. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Walmart is transforming from a traditional supermarket to a full-channel giant, with its e-commerce business growing over 20% for seven consecutive quarters, now accounting for 20% of its total retail sales [20]. - **PDD Holdings (PDD)**: Temu is evolving from a fully managed model to a semi-managed one, enhancing its supply chain capabilities and integrating local inventory to compete with Amazon [21]. - **Shopify (SHOP)**: Shopify is shifting its growth narrative, focusing on AI-driven traffic distribution and financial services to enhance its revenue model [22]. - **Instacart (CART)**: Instacart dominates over 70% of the U.S. third-party grocery delivery market, with a growing high-margin advertising business contributing to its revenue [23].

文 | C2CC新传媒 日前，《北京商报》报道的一则招聘信息引发行业关注。东方甄选正在为北京首家旗舰店招聘店长，优先锁定"餐饮+零售"复合业态管理人才。虽然该信 息目前已经更新为"旗舰店门店储备店长"招聘，但俞敏洪的东方甄选"全国线下百家门店"构想正式迈出了实质性的一步。 俞敏洪对东方甄选线下门店布局的构思由来已久。早在去年7月，俞敏洪就明确表示，希望依托新东方全国800个地面教学点，探索线上线下相结合的模 式，开设会员店、旗舰店等等。 近期，东方甄选前CEO孙东旭离职，公司也进行了工商变更，其经营范围新增了餐饮管理、餐饮服务及外卖递送服务等业务。 根据此前透露的信息，东方甄选首家旗舰店位于北京中关村，面积约400平方米，门店将融合生鲜、零食、日用百货等类目，同时，还有简餐与咖啡饮品 区。从业务组合上，东方甄选线下店融合了山姆会员店、盒马鲜生等会员制超市业态，小象超市、京东便利店等即时零售业态，以及便利蜂、罗森、7- ELEVEn等便利店业态。 俞敏洪意图是将东方甄选线下店打造成为一个更具沉浸式体验的消费空间，而非传统的零售门店。 2025年上半年，抖音平台直播带货GMV同比下降41%。冰冷的数据，撕开了直播 ...

最近，商务部、央行、金融监管总局联合发布了一份重磅文件：《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度 提振消费的通知》。 一句话概括这份文件的核心思路就是：金融，要更直接、更主动地为"多花钱"这件事服务。这对金融市 场，尤其是A股，意味着什么？我们慢慢拆。 这份《通知》里，一共提出了3个方面、11条措施，内容很多，但如果从金融视角来看，其实逻辑非常 清楚：想尽一切办法，把消费信心、消费能力和消费场景重新激活。 而金融系统，是这次发力的"关键工具人"。 第一条主线：商品消费，要花得动钱，这次文件里，对商品消费的支持给得非常细、也非常直接。比 如：大宗耐用品、数码产品，汽车以旧换新等等，核心就一件事：让消费者买东西时，金融跟得上、撑 得住、成本更低。 政策明确要求：消费贷款额度更灵活，期限可以拉长，利率要更差异化，甚至连提前还车贷的违约金， 都可以适当减免。 政策明确提出，要让金融产品更贴近消费场景，而不是只停留在给贷款。 比如：服务消费专项贷款，养老再贷款，知识产权、科技成果等"无形资产"也能融资，商业保险、健康 险、年金险配套跟上。 这其实是在为服务业修复、就业稳定打基础。而这，对整个经济和资本市场都是正反馈。 第三条 ...

东方甄选从直播间走向实体店，表面是新店开业，实质是战略重构。这场转型背后是线上红利见顶与内 部震荡的双重压力。 2025财年财报显示，公司来自抖音、淘宝及自有应用程序等所有销售渠道的已付GMV已从143亿元降至 87亿元。在头部主播董宇辉离职后，东方甄选粉丝量与流量深受影响。与辉同行的抖音粉丝在一年内迅 速超过3000万，而东方甄选主账号当前粉丝量为2805万。 据公开报道，东方甄选正以1.5万—3万元薪资招聘北京首家旗舰店的店长，要求具有"餐饮+零售"复合 业态管理经验。这家位于北京中关村、面积约400平方米的店铺将不仅销售生鲜、零食和日用品，还设 有简餐和咖啡饮品区。 2025财年，东方甄选来自所有销售渠道的已付GMV从去年同期的143亿元降至87亿元，其中占大头的抖 音渠道订单数从1.8亿单下降至9160万单。 战略转向：从线上流量场到线下体验场 线下零售的核心逻辑与线上完全不同。从选址、选品、供应链到店面布局、顾客动线、货架陈列，都是 积累了百年的核心技术。东方甄选的线下扩张也与其供应链建设成果密切相关。截至2025年5月31日， 公司已推出732款自营产品，同比增加50%。自营产品在GMV中的占比从 ...

12月9日，贝恩公司与Worldpanel消费者指数联合发布《2025年中国购物者报告，系列二》(以下简称"报 告")。报告显示，线下渠道中，仓储会员店、零食集合店和折扣店快速扩张，增速分别达40%、51%和 92%。 从消费行为侧看，消费者对"性价比"的理解正在发生变化：不只追求低价，更追求"同等预算下的单位 价值最大化"。这也使得越来越多消费者带着更明确的采购清单与预算进店，通过更高效的选品体系、 更清晰的价格心智和更可验证的服务体验完成消费决策。 值得注意的是，消费倾向变化的另一信号是"购物路径缩短"。过去，消费者可能以"逛"为主；如今，在 高性价比新业态的典型消费场景中，消费者更习惯于"目标明确、快速决策、即买即走"。这也使得"品 类结构、价格梯度、门店动线与会员权益"共同构成影响消费者选择的关键变量。 从宏观视角看，中央财经大学副教授刘春生对《证券日报》记者表示，线下高性价比新业态的高增速， 更多与消费者"价值感/确定性导向型需求"上升有关。消费者希望在"低价不低质"的前提下，获得刚需 品类的稳定供给与可验证的购物回报。他认为，"性价比+便利+体验"的组合偏好，标志着线下消费 从"泛逛式"向"目标型 ...