Global Research ab 8 October 2025 Global I/O Memory Semis HBM Update: factoring in Open AI We increase our Nvidia procurement assumptions, introduce Open AI ASICs ests On the back of our recent industry checks and proprietary bottom up model, we increase our high bandwidth memory (HBM) end-consumption industry bit forecasts by 1% in 2025 to 17.1bn Gb (+99% YoY), and 4% in 2026 to 27.2bn Gb (+59% YoY). We now forecast HBM industry revenues to reach US$33.2bn in 2025 (+103% YoY), and US $54.5bn in 2026 (+64%) ...

Key Points Samsung and SK Hynix inked a massive deal to supply memory and storage to OpenAI's Stargate project. The demand from Stargate could take up 40% of the entire DRAM market at peak volumes. Massive demand benefits this three-company oligopoly, so Micron is soaring in response. 10 stocks we like better than Micron Technology › Shares of DRAM and NAND flash giant Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) rocketed to close almost 9% higher on Wednesday, reaching all-time highs. Micron is one of only a ...

Key Points Shares rose as much as 15.7% on Monday. A wave of bullish analyst calls last week helped fuel AI-storage optimism. Industry pricing power is improving as storage suppliers push through price hikes, bolstering margin hopes. 10 stocks we like better than Sandisk › Shares of Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) jumped as much as 15.7% on Monday. There was no company-specific announcement driving the move. Instead, enthusiasm appears to be compounding; investors are increasingly treating the stock as a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (O/W) rating for Taiwan, Neutral/Weight (N/W) for Korea, and moves Japan to Neutral/Weight from Underweight (U/W), while China is rated Underweight (U/W) from Neutral/Weight [4]. Core Insights - The smartphone industry unit Sell In forecasts have been raised to +3% YoY for 2025 and +1% YoY for 2026, with PC forecasts increased to +4% YoY for 2025 and +3% YoY for 2026, and server forecasts to +6% YoY for 2025 and +4% YoY for 2026 [1][9]. - AI demand remains robust, with expectations for Nvidia's GB200/300 NVL72 racks in 2025 at 28-29k and initial conservative estimates for 2026 at around 50-60k [1]. - The foundry outlook for 3nm and 2nm is strong, driven by AI accelerator projects, while DDR and NAND supply is tightening, with DDR potentially "sold out" until 2027 [2]. - Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) spending is trending upwards, with forecasts for 2025 at US$109 billion (+12% YoY) and 2026 at US$118 billion (+8% YoY) [3]. Summary by Sections Smartphones - The smartphone market is expected to see unit Sell In of 1.26 billion in 2025 (+3% YoY) and 1.27 billion in 2026 (+1% YoY), with Apple’s iPhone 17 builds projected to increase [9][11]. - Component upgrades in the iPhone 17 series include significant camera enhancements, indicating ongoing technological advancements despite cost pressures [12]. PCs - Global PC unit shipments are forecasted to grow by +4.4% YoY in 2025 and +3.4% YoY in 2026, with commercial segments showing resilient momentum due to the Windows 10 EOL replacement cycle [16][19]. - The report highlights a modestly positive outlook for PC shipments, with consumer PCs expected to grow 0.5% YoY in 2025, while commercial PCs are forecasted to grow by +6.6% YoY [19]. Memory and Foundry - The report indicates a tightening supply for DDR and NAND, with long-term agreements being established by major customers, particularly US hyperscalers [2]. - The outlook for 3nm and 2nm foundries is robust, with expectations for multi-year growth driven by AI projects [2]. Wafer Fab Equipment - WFE spending is expected to increase, particularly from Korean memory makers, with forecasts for domestic China WFE at US$37 billion in 2025 (+3% YoY) [3].

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology's shares have surged 11.8% this week, driven by increased demand for storage solutions due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) inferencing, leading to several analyst upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Upgrades and Market Response - Bank of America raised its price target for Seagate from $170 to $215, maintaining a "buy" rating based on a positive outlook for AI spending [5]. - Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh increased his target for Seagate from $160 to $245, following strong demand and rising prices for hard disk drives and NAND flash [5]. - Seagate's stock has increased by 155.4% year-to-date, outperforming many other popular AI stocks [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Infrastructure Changes - The recent rise in AI and semiconductor stocks is attributed to Oracle's positive AI guidance and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which is expected to lower capital costs and encourage tech spending on AI infrastructure [2][3]. - The shift in AI infrastructure focus from training generative models to inferencing is driving new investments in edge storage, where Seagate's HAMR technology is a leader [4]. Group 3: Industry Cyclicality - The memory and storage industry is characterized by cyclical trends, currently in a "boom" phase, with the duration of this phase dependent on the AI infrastructure build-out timeline [8]. - Investors should remain cautious as macroeconomic fluctuations or declining demand for AI services could lead to significant market pullbacks [8].

Micron Technology (MU) has emerged as one of the key beneficiaries of the ongoing AI data center buildout. While companies like Nvidia (NVDA) supply the GPUs that power artificial intelligence models, Micron provides another critical ingredient: memory and storage. As AI workloads grow exponentially, the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND flash has become just as important as processing power, making Micron an up-and-coming player in the AI infrastructure ecosystem.Shares of Micron are n ...

Group 1 - The AI boom has significantly benefited semiconductor and software companies, but other essential industries are also crucial for AI development [1][2] - Memory chips, cooling systems, and wafer tools are becoming bottlenecks that will determine the growth rate of the AI industry [2] - DRAM and NAND flash are identified as key bottlenecks, with expectations of undersupply through at least 2026 due to production discipline and increasing data-center demand [3] Group 2 - Micron Technology (MU) is positioned to benefit from the shift in AI companies from training to inferencing, requiring massive amounts of data [5][6] - Micron is the only major domestic producer of DRAM and NAND flash, with a significant market share, benefiting from tariffs on foreign competition [6] - MU stock has surged by 18.8% in the past five days, with Q3 FY 2025 revenue growing 15% sequentially and 37% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, primarily driven by DRAM and NAND flash sales [7]

Welcome back to NextGen Investing. It's now time to discuss a clear winner of the session which is Micron and it has not been so often we've been able to say that. So up now 9 and a half% joining us in studios Marley Kaden host for the Schwab network.So Marley, what is driving this nice move. Because I I know there's an analyst note today, but nine and a half% is a pretty big move on the back of just like one one ways of one conviction really from city. Yeah.I think it's primarily city, but also I think rid ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has revoked the "Verified End User (VEU)" status for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's factories in China, requiring them to obtain separate licenses for each batch of equipment shipped starting next year, which could lead to production delays and increased global memory prices [1][3][18]. Group 1: U.S. Regulatory Actions - The U.S. has closed exemptions for Samsung and SK Hynix, preventing them from using American machinery to produce high-end chips in China [3][18]. - The new regulations will require both companies to seek U.S. approval for each shipment to China, potentially causing significant delays and inefficiencies [3][18]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that while the current situation can be maintained, no expansion of production or technological upgrades will be allowed, effectively blocking upgrades and expansions in China [20]. Group 2: Market Impact - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching $626 billion, with Samsung regaining the top position in sales due to a rebound in memory chip prices [9][12]. - Samsung's Xi'an factory produces 40% of its global NAND output, and SK Hynix is expected to surpass Samsung in sales by Q2 2025, indicating a competitive shift in the market [12][21]. - The price of SK Hynix's HBM3 memory has increased over five times since 2023, highlighting the growing demand for high-bandwidth memory in AI applications [16][21]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the HBM memory market, controlling 90% of global production, which is critical for AI chip performance [16][22]. - The U.S. is concerned that Samsung and SK Hynix could produce advanced AI memory components in China, prompting regulatory actions to slow down China's progress in this area [21][24]. - The restrictions on Samsung and SK Hynix may create opportunities for Chinese companies to develop their own high-end HBM memory, as they seek to fill the market gap left by these restrictions [24][25].

Core Insights - Micron Technology Inc plays a crucial role in the semiconductor industry, particularly in artificial intelligence, specializing in memory and storage chips like DRAM and NAND flash [1][2] - The company's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products are essential for AI functionalities, enabling efficient data processing [2][4] Company Performance - Micron has shown strong stock performance, gaining over 41% since the beginning of the year, indicating positive market sentiment [4][13] - The company has consistently beaten earnings and revenue expectations, with a notable surprise of 5.08% in revenue and 18.63% in earnings in the last fiscal quarter [5] Market Dynamics - The memory semiconductor market is characterized by volatility, with potential shifts in supply and demand impacting performance [6][7] - Geopolitical tensions can disrupt the semiconductor industry, posing risks to Micron's operations and stock performance [6][7] Investment Products - Direxion offers specialized ETFs for traders, including the MUU ETF for bullish positions and the MUD ETF for bearish positions, reflecting varying market sentiments [9][10] - The MUU ETF has gained over 41% since January, while the MUD ETF has declined by 44% due to sustained demand for AI-related products [13][15] Technical Analysis - The MUU ETF is currently trading just under its 50-day moving average but remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating a positive overall posture [16] - The MUD ETF is below its 200-day moving average, suggesting significant technical damage, yet it may be forming a support baseline ahead of earnings [17]