Group 1: Technology Sector Recovery - Technology stocks have rebounded significantly over the past three months, with the Nasdaq Composite index rising 21% during this period, although it is only up 7% year to date [2][3] - The recovery is attributed to a broad market rally, which has led to substantial increases in the stock prices of many technology companies [2] Group 2: Micron Technology - Micron Technology's stock surged 58% in the last three months, trading at an attractive valuation of 22 times trailing earnings and a forward earnings multiple of 10 [5][11] - The company's revenue for Q3 fiscal 2025 reached $9.3 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings growing over three times to $1.91 per share [6] - Micron is well-positioned in the memory market, controlling 24% of the DRAM market and 12% of the NAND flash storage market, with the overall memory market projected to reach $302 billion by 2030 [8] Group 3: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock increased by 43% in three months, with analysts expecting a 53% revenue growth in the current fiscal year, approaching $200 billion [12][14] - Despite facing export restrictions to China, Nvidia's fiscal Q1 results exceeded expectations, and the company is gaining traction in the global AI chip market [13][15] - The sovereign AI market presents a significant revenue opportunity for Nvidia, with estimates suggesting it could unlock $50 billion annually, and potentially up to $1.5 trillion according to Oppenheimer [15][16]

分析师：邹臣 登记编码：S0730523100001 zouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 半导体 多款 AI 眼镜重磅新品陆续发布，存储 器价格持续上涨 ——半导体行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 07 月 11 日 -15% -4% 7% 18% 29% 40% 51% 61% 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 半导体 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 相关报告 《半导体行业月报：美国半导体出口管制再 升级，存储器价格持续回升》 2025-06-13 《半导体行业月报：半导体行业 25Q1 稳健 增长，端侧 AI 助力 SoC 厂商高速成长》 2025-05-12 《半导体行业月报：美国"对等关税"政策 落地，关注半导体自主可控方向》 2025-04- 08 联系人：李智 投资要点： 2025 年 3 月闪迪、美光等存储原厂发布涨价函，表示 4 月起调涨 存储器价格。根据中国闪存市场的数据，2025 年 3 月至 6 月 DRAM、NAND Flash 综合价格指数环比持续回升，DRAM 指数上 涨约 ...

资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/06/27-2025/07/10） 行 业 内资半导体巨头 IPO 进程提速，AI 硬件自主可控趋势增强 2025 年 7 月 11 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 行 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年7月10日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/06/27-2025/07/10）累计下跌1.18%，跑输沪深300指数2.80个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨1.10%，跑输沪深300指数 0.81个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 细分板块涨跌幅：截至2025年7月10日，申万半导体板块各细分指数近两周 大多上涨，涨跌幅从高到低依次为：SW分立器件（2.79%）＞SW集成电路封 测（1.28%）＞SW半导体设备（1.20%）＞SW半导体材料（0. ...

3Q25新旧世代DRAM交替，合约价走势分化，Consumer DDR4将季增逾40% 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，由于三大DRAM原厂将产能转向高阶产品，并陆续宣布 PC/Se rve r用DDR4以及Mobil e用LPDDR4X进入产品生命周期末期(EOL)，引发市场对旧世代 产品积极备货，叠加传统旺季备货动能， 将推升2025年第三季一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)价格季增10%至15%，若纳入HBM，整体DRAM涨幅将季增15%至20% 。 点击右边 阅读原文 了解更多详情 预估3Q25 NAND Flash合约价季增5%至10%，手机需求弱抑制eMMC、UFS涨幅 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，NAND Fl a sh市场历经2025年上半年的减产与库存去化， 供需失衡情况已明显改善。随着原厂转移产能至高毛利产品，市场流通供给量缩减。需求面则 有企业加码AI投资，以及NVIDIA（英伟达）新一代Bl a ckwe ll芯片大量出货支撑。展望第三季 NAND Fl a sh价格走势， 预估平均合约价将季增5%至10%，但eMMC、UFS产品因 ...

点击 关注我们 报告发布日期：2025年7月8日 报告名称:《半导体7月投资策略： TI扩产以支持未来需求，存储价格继续上涨 》 分析师：胡剑 S0980521080001/胡慧 S0980521080002/ 叶子 S0980522100003 / 詹 浏洋 S0980524060001 / 张大为 S0980524100002/李书颖S0980522100003 联系人：连欣然 完整报告请扫描下方二维码 国信研究 半导体7月投资策略: TI扩产以支持未来需 求, 存储价格继续上涨 2025-07-08 | 胡剑 胡慧 叶子 张大为 詹浏洋 6月SW半导体指数上涨5.96%，估值处于2019年以来 64.82%分位2025年6月SW半导体指数上涨5.96%,跑输 电子行业2.90pct,跑赢沪深300指数3.46pct;海外费城 半导体指数上涨16.57%，台湾半导体指数上涨8.15%。 从半导体子行业来看,集成电路封测(+9.24%)、分立器 件(+8.18%)、半导体设备(+7.05%) 涨跌幅居前;模 拟芯片设计(+3.88%)、数字芯片设计(+5.41%)、半 导体材料(+5.43%)涨跌幅居后。截 ...

交银国际研究 | 科技行业月报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 部分科技股创新高，建议继续抓住 | AI 投资主线 | 评级: | 领先 | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | | 部分科技指数创历史新高，科技股整体跑赢大盘。全球股市维持强劲走 势，且科技股普遍相比大盘走势更加强劲。MSCI 全球指数/纳斯达克 100 较 4 月 7 日的低位分别反弹约 24%/31%，并不断突破历史新高。 台积电 6 月营收同比增 27%，看好 2H25 2 纳米持续扩大的技术优势。我们 看好台积电在 2H25 进入 2 纳米量产后持续扩大的技术优势，预计 2 纳米产 能爬升节奏或与 3 纳米产能爬升节奏相仿，且 2 纳米初始客户流片数量大于 之前 3 纳米和 5 纳米流片数量。 预计存储价格 2H25 继续保持上涨趋势：DDR4 合约平均价继续明显上涨， DDR5 现货平均价 6 月开始恢复高速增长，NAND Flash 合约平均价延续年初 以来的增长趋势。我们认为，关税缓解后持续补库影响下，存储价格对今年 智能手机和消费 ...

Group 1 - The NAND Flash market has seen significant improvement in supply-demand balance due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, with expectations of a 5% to 10% increase in average contract prices for the third quarter [1] - The client SSD market is expected to grow by 3% to 8% in the third quarter, driven by better-than-expected inventory reduction by OEM/ODM, a wave of upgrades due to Windows 10 support cessation, and demand from new CPU launches [1][2] - The enterprise SSD demand is anticipated to continue growing in the third quarter, supported by increasing orders from North American general server demand and strong orders from first-tier Chinese customers, with contract prices expected to rise by 5% to 10% [2] Group 2 - The mobile device segment, particularly eMMC, is expected to see flat demand in the third quarter due to previously satisfied consumer needs and reduced purchasing power, with contract prices projected to increase by 0% to 5% [2] - UFS market demand remains uncertain, with supply limited due to a focus on high-margin products, leading to a forecasted contract price increase of 0% to 5% in the third quarter [2] - The overall NAND Flash output is declining, and manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin products, which is expected to result in wafer prices increasing by 8% to 13% in the third quarter [3]

Core Insights - The NAND Flash market has shown significant improvement in supply-demand balance following production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [1] - Manufacturers are shifting production capacity towards high-margin products, leading to a reduction in market supply [1] - Increased investments in AI by companies and substantial shipments of NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips are driving demand [1] - NAND Flash average contract prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in Q3, although eMMC and UFS products may see lower price increases due to uncertain smartphone outlook for the second half of the year [1]

TrendForce集邦咨询表示，Client SSD市场因OEM/ODM上半年去化库存情况优于预期，增强第三季 回补动能。同时Windows 10停止支持、新一代CPU推出引发的换机潮，以及中国DeepSeek一体机热 潮，皆带动Client SSD需求。此外，部分原厂积极推动大容量QLC产品，带动出货规模。综合以上因 素， 预估第三季Client SSD合约价将季增3%至8% 。 今年NVIDIA Blackwell平台出货量逐季升高，且北美地区通用型Server需求正在扩大，中国一线客户 的强劲订单动能可望延续至下半年，将激励第三季Enterprise SSD需求持续成长。然而，因订单增长 过快，部分供应链厂商交货未能跟上，加上原厂于年初下修产能， 第三季Enterprise SSD合约价将 上涨5%至10% 。 July 9, 2025 产业洞察 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，NAND Flash市场历经2025年上半年的减产与库存去化，供 需失衡情况已明显改善。随着原厂转移产能至高毛利产品，市场流通供给量缩减。需求面则有 企业加码AI投资，以及NVIDIA（英伟达）新一代Blackwel ...

Core Insights - The launch of Changxin Technology's first 12-inch DRAM wafer production line in July 2018 marked a new era for China's semiconductor storage industry [1] - Changxin Technology is initiating its A-share IPO process, signaling a new development phase for China's storage semiconductor industry [3][4] - The rapid growth of Changxin and other Chinese storage companies is reshaping the global DRAM market, challenging the dominance of established players like Samsung and SK Hynix [4][5] Industry Development - The Chinese storage semiconductor industry has shown remarkable growth over the past decade, with Changxin's DRAM production capacity expected to increase from 1.62 million wafers last year to 2.73 million this year, a 68% increase [4] - Traditional industry giants are feeling pressure from Chinese companies' aggressive pricing strategies, which are impacting their financial performance [4][5] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a "three-player" dominance to a "multi-competitor" scenario, providing consumers with more choices and competitive pricing [14][18] Company Strategy - Changxin's CEO, Zhu Yiming, emphasizes a commitment to not taking salary or bonuses until the project is profitable, reflecting a strong focus on long-term success [1][3] - The collaboration between Changxin and its partners, including Zhaoyi Innovation, showcases a successful model of integrating technology, capital, and government support [6][8] - The recent valuation of Changxin at 140 billion yuan indicates strong market confidence in its future growth and the overall potential of China's storage semiconductor industry [9] Future Outlook - Despite international sanctions and export controls, Chinese storage companies are aggressively expanding their market presence and technological capabilities [10][14] - The demand for high-performance storage products is expected to grow with the rise of AI, cloud computing, and 5G applications, presenting significant opportunities for Chinese firms [14] - The transition of Changxin and other companies to open market competition is seen as a necessary step for developing world-class competitive capabilities [17][18]