维持"买入"。 国内销售亮眼，BD驱动2025年扭亏为盈 2025年公司营收大幅提升，来自国内产品的销售快速爬坡和海外BD的进展：1）我们预计两大产品2025年收入超 过23亿，且随着两者在2025年底国谈中以较低降幅续约、泰它西普多个潜力适应症有望26年获批和RC28的潜在获 批，公司国内业务有望继续保持显著增长；2）公司在2025年完成多项BD交易，我们预计全年BD收益主要来自泰 它西普授权给VOR交易的4500万美元首付款和8000万美元的认股权证。 荣昌生物：BD驱动扭亏为盈 1月30日，公司发布2025年预告：实现营收32.5亿（+89%yoy），归母/扣非净利润7.16/7.85亿，均实现扭亏为盈。 我们认为荣昌生物处于海外潜力、国内业务、报表质量均在持续向好的阶段：1）RC148出海落地，年内有望启动 多个全球III期临床；2)管线全球价值逐步显现，维迪西妥单抗1LIII期入组加速，2L适应症报产在即，泰它西普的 SS全球III期有望启动；3）国内 荣昌生物：BD驱动扭亏为盈 1月30日，公司发布2025年预告：实现营收32.5亿（+89%yoy），归母/扣非净利润7.16/7.85亿，均实现扭 ...

证券研究报告 荣昌生物 (688331 CH/9995 HK) 港股通 BD 驱动扭亏为盈 | 华泰研究 | | 动态点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 31 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 化学制药 | 1 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年预告：实现营收 32.5 亿（+89%yoy），归母 净利润 7.16 亿，扣非净利润 7,850 万，均实现扭亏为盈。我们认为荣昌生 物处于海外潜力、国内业务、报表质量均在持续向好的阶段：1）RC148 出 海落地，年内有望启动多个全球 III 期临床；2) 管线全球价值逐步显现，维 迪西妥单抗 1L III 期入组加速，2L 适应症报产在即，泰它西普的 SS 全球 III 期有望启动；3）国内市场，核心产品医保续约降幅可控，收入快速向上。 维持"买入"。 国内销售亮眼，BD 驱动 2025 年扭亏为盈 2025 年公司营收大幅提升，来自国内产品的销售快速爬坡和海外 BD 的进 展：1）我们预计两大产品 2025 年收入超过 23 亿，且随着两者在 2025 年 底国谈中以较低降幅续约、泰它西普多个潜力适应症有望 26 年获批 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and trends of the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, particularly focusing on the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570), which has seen significant capital inflow and is leading in scale among similar funds [1][2] - The 44th JPMorgan Healthcare Conference showcased several Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, emphasizing trends in gene and cell therapy, as well as AI in medicine, indicating a shift from "assets being bought" to "global value" for Chinese innovations [1][2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach new highs due to various catalysts, including the significant valuation gap between China and the US, ongoing business development (BD) transactions, and low current allocation of pharmaceutical theme funds in the market [2] Group 2 - Major stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF mostly experienced declines, with notable drops exceeding 1% for companies like BeiGene, China Biologic Products, and others, while CSPC Pharmaceutical showed a slight increase [2][3] - Key innovative drugs presented at the JPMorgan Conference include BeiGene's CDK4 products and the first BCL2 inhibitor approved in China, which highlights the competitive landscape and advancements in treatment options for various cancers [5][6] - The collaboration between Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and AbbVie on the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody RC148 is a significant development, with potential milestone payments and royalties, showcasing the growing internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China, with an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement Details - The agreement includes an upfront payment of $650 million and milestone payments that could reach up to $4.95 billion [1]. - AbbVie will have exclusive rights to develop, produce, and commercialize RC148 outside of Greater China [1]. Group 2: Clinical Data and Efficacy - RC148 has shown promising efficacy and safety in recent clinical trials, with a Phase 1 study demonstrating an overall response rate (ORR) of 61.9% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 100% among PD-L1 positive NSCLC patients [1]. - In the Phase 2 study, the combination of RC148 with docetaxel achieved an ORR of 66.7% and a DCR of 95.2%, with an ORR of 80% in PD-L1 positive patients [2]. Group 3: Business Development and Financial Impact - This licensing agreement marks the fourth successful business development (BD) transaction for the company, validating its R&D capabilities and recognition by foreign entities [2]. - The high upfront payment is expected to significantly improve the company's cash flow and provides strong financial and brand endorsement for future R&D and pipeline advancement [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of -885 million, -449 million, and 373 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of -1.57, -0.80, and 0.66 yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million, with potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, and double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2]. - RC148 shows promising efficacy and safety data, with a reported overall response rate (ORR) of 61.9% in a Phase 1 trial and 66.7% in a Phase 2 trial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [1]. - The company has successfully executed multiple business development (BD) transactions, enhancing its cash flow and validating its research capabilities [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are $250.8 million, $319.6 million, and $428.5 million, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 46.1%, 27.4%, and 34.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of $885 million in 2025 to a profit of $373 million in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to transition from -1.57 yuan in 2025 to 0.66 yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [4].

Recent Events - Company announced on January 12 that it has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its self-developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China. The company will receive an upfront payment of $650 million and is eligible for up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments, as well as double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1] Product Development and International Collaboration - The recent licensing agreement further validates the company's speed in international expansion, following the external authorization of its core products RC18 and RC28 by 2025. As of January 2026, there are 17 PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody drugs in clinical trials globally, with several signed BD agreements, showcasing the company's strong R&D capabilities [2] - AbbVie, as an international MNC, has a diverse product pipeline including the first FRα-targeting ADC drug Elahere and others, which will strategically complement RC148 and expand its global reach [2] Clinical Data and Efficacy - At the 2025 ESMO-IO conference, the company disclosed promising data for RC148, showing an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 100% for monotherapy. For combination therapy, the ORR reached 66.7% and the DCR was 95.2%, indicating initial clinical advantages and manageable safety profiles [3] - Early clinical studies have shown that RC148, when used in combination with antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), exhibits promising anti-tumor activity, with the company actively advancing related clinical trials [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (09995), highlighting the company's strong independent R&D capabilities, stable sales growth of core products, experienced management team, steady progress in clinical indications, and reasonable domestic and international layout, with optimism regarding the company's commercialization capabilities post-product launch [1] Recent Events - On January 12, the company announced an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its independently developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China. The company will receive an upfront payment of $650 million and is eligible for up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1] International Expansion - Following the authorization of core products RC18 and RC28 in 2025, this recent agreement further validates the company's speed in international expansion. As of January 2026, 17 PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody drugs are in clinical trials globally, with several BD agreements signed, showcasing the company's R&D capabilities. AbbVie, as a partner, has a diverse product line that complements RC148, enhancing its global positioning [2] Clinical Data - At the 2025 ESMO-IO conference, the company disclosed promising data for RC148, showing an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 100% in monotherapy. In combination therapy, the ORR reached 66.7% and the DCR was 95.2%. The safety profile is manageable, indicating initial clinical advantages. The company is actively advancing related clinical studies, anticipating further clinical potential [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2] - The collaboration with AbbVie is expected to enhance the company's international clinical development and market expansion, leveraging AbbVie's existing oncology pipeline [2] - Initial clinical data for RC148 shows promising results, with an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% for monotherapy and 66.7% for combination therapy, indicating strong potential for further clinical advancement [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.75 billion, 3.38 billion, and 4.41 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.95%, 22.97%, and 30.40% [7] - The projected net profit for 2026 is expected to be -315.8 million CNY, with a turnaround to a profit of 383.89 million CNY by 2027 [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain high, with estimates of 83.65% in 2025 and 82.27% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment opportunity for Rongchang Biopharma following the signing of a significant licensing agreement with AbbVie, which is expected to enhance the company's financial position and market presence [2][25]. Core Insights - Rongchang Biopharma has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the novel PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, which includes an upfront payment of $650 million (approximately 4.5 billion RMB) and potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.95 billion (approximately 34.5 billion RMB) [2][8]. - The total transaction value is close to $4 billion, marking a record for the company in terms of external licensing agreements [3][8]. - The PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody market is identified as a "golden track" for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with increasing upfront payments reflecting the growing value of these assets [9][10]. Industry Overview - The number of BD licensing deals for Chinese innovative drugs has surged from 85 in 2023 to 157 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.9% [11]. - The total transaction value for these deals has skyrocketed from $32 billion in 2023 to $135.7 billion in 2025, representing a growth of over three times [13]. - The industry is entering an accelerated growth phase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 161% for BD licensing deals in 2025, significantly outpacing previous years [15]. Financial Performance - Rongchang Biopharma's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.72 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.27% [16]. - Despite ongoing net losses exceeding 1 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, the company has shown improvement, with losses narrowing to 551 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 1.071 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [17][19]. - The anticipated upfront payment from the AbbVie deal is expected to further improve Rongchang Biopharma's profitability and cash reserves, potentially leading to profitability in 2026 if the payment is fully received [19]. Product Pipeline - Rongchang Biopharma's key products include Taitasip (IL-4Rα antibody) and Vidisicimab (HER2 ADC), which are currently the main sources of revenue [20]. - The RC148 bispecific antibody is a focus for the company, currently in I/II clinical stages, and the collaboration with AbbVie is expected to accelerate its global development [23].

Core Viewpoint - Rongchang Biologics (09995) experienced a significant stock increase, rising over 7% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of 90.75 HKD and a trading volume of 319 million HKD, indicating strong market interest and potential investor confidence [1]. Group 1: Clinical Research and Product Development - At the 2025 ESMO annual meeting, clinical research results were published showing that Vidisicimab combined with Toripalimab outperformed chemotherapy as a first-line treatment for HER2-expressing locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma [1]. - Yongxing Securities reported that the combination therapy of Vidisicimab demonstrates excellent efficacy, marking a significant change in the treatment landscape for urothelial carcinoma [1]. - CITIC Construction Investment noted that in 2025, the core product Taitasip will rapidly expand after receiving approval for new indications, and the data for the combination treatment with Vidisicimab is promising [1]. Group 2: Pipeline and Market Position - The application for the DME indication of RC28 has been accepted, indicating progress in the company's pipeline [1]. - Among the pipeline products, RC148 has received breakthrough therapy designation, with continuous validation of its clinical data [1]. - Overall, the company is accelerating its commercialization process and has a well-structured pipeline, suggesting a positive outlook for future development [1].