2025Q4，公司系统销售额/同店销售额同比+7%/+3%，净新增门店587 家；全年来看，系统销售额/同店 销售额同比分别+4%/+1%，净新增门店1706 家，其中净新增加盟店占比31%。分品牌来看，1）肯德 基：2025Q4，系统销售额/同店销售额同比+8%/+3%，其中，同店交易量/客单价同比+3%/+0%，净新增 门店357 家；全年来看，系统销售额/同店销售额同比分别+5%/+1%，净新增门店1349 家，其中净新增 加盟店占比37%。2）必胜客： 2025Q4，系统销售额/同店销售额同比+6%/+1%，其中，同店交易量/客单价同比+13%/-11%，净新增门 店146家；全年来看，系统销售额/同店销售额同比分别+4%/+1%，净新增门店444 家，其中净新增加盟 店占比31%。 肯悦咖啡和KPRO 增长迅速，试点推出"双子星"模式公司持续通过产品创新与多元门店形态，触达更广 泛的客群，满足多样化消费场景需求。肯悦咖啡和KPRO 增长迅速，目前已分别进驻2200 家与200 多家 肯德基门店，为母店带来业绩增量，据公司2025Q4Earnings Call，2026 年KPRO 门店数量将翻倍至4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit of $187 million, up 25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $140 million, up 24% [2] - For the full year 2025, the company reported total revenue of $11.797 billion, a 4% increase, operating profit of $1.290 billion, an 11% increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, a 2% increase [2] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company has seen same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a net addition of 587 stores in Q4 2025 [3] - For the full year, system sales and same-store sales increased by 4% and 1% respectively, with a total of 1,706 net new stores added [3] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 3% in Q4 2025, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 1% [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats, with K Coffee and KPRO showing rapid growth [4] - KPRO is expected to double its store count to over 400 by 2026, while Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with its WOW store model [4] - The introduction of the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other, aims to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin improved to 6.6%, and restaurant profit margin to 13.0%, benefiting from streamlined operations and favorable raw material prices [5] - The cost of food and packaging decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points [5] - Delivery sales accounted for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are adjusted to $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit rising by 25% to $187 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 24% to $140 million. For the entire year, revenue reached $11.797 billion, up 4%, with operating profit at $1.290 billion (+11%) and net profit at $929 million (+2%) [2] - The company returned $539 million to shareholders in Q4 2025, totaling $1.5 billion for the year, with plans to maintain this level of shareholder return in 2026 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company reported same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with system sales and same-store sales increasing by 7% and 3% year-over-year in Q4 2025, respectively. A total of 587 new stores were added in the quarter, bringing the annual total to 1,706 new stores, with 31% being franchise stores [3] - By brand, KFC saw system sales and same-store sales growth of 8% and 3% in Q4 2025, respectively, with 357 new stores opened. For the year, KFC's system sales and same-store sales grew by 5% and 1%, respectively, with 1,349 new stores [3] - Pizza Hut experienced system sales and same-store sales growth of 6% and 1% in Q4 2025, with 146 new stores opened. For the year, system sales and same-store sales grew by 4% and 1%, respectively, with 444 new stores [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats to reach a broader customer base. K Coffee and KPRO have shown rapid growth, with K Coffee in 2,200 stores and KPRO expected to double to over 400 stores in 2026. Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with the WOW store model [4] - The company has introduced the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost, with approximately 40 pairs of "Twin Stars" stores opened and plans for accelerated expansion in 2026 [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin and restaurant profit margin improved to 6.6% and 13.0%, respectively, benefiting from operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices. KFC's operating profit margin was 10.5%, while Pizza Hut's was 3.7% [5] - The company reported a decrease in the proportion of food and packaging costs by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points. Rental and other expenses decreased by 1.6 percentage points, with delivery sales accounting for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts previous profit forecasts and introduces projections for 2028, estimating revenues of $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. Net profits are projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion for the same years [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 times for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [6]

机构：华泰证券 加盟占比显著提升，新业态锦上添花 2025 全年净新增门店1,706 家，截至年底门店总数达18,101 家。4Q25 净新增587 家，加盟店占比达36% （全年加盟占比增至31%）。肯德基全年净增1,349 家，肯悦咖啡门店数扩至2,200 家，为母店带来中个 位数销售增量；KPRO 门店数超200 家，为母店贡献双位数销售增量，计划26 年拓展至400+家，重点布 局高线城市（业绩会）。必胜客全年净增444 家创纪录，WOW 店模式已进入约100 个新城市。Lavazza 再焕活力，全年净增34 家至146 家，同店转正。公司指引2026 年净新增1,900+家门店、总数突破20,000 家，新店中加盟占比提升至40%-50%，26E Capex 6-7 亿美元。 全年股东回馈达成，未来3 年回馈指引清晰 2025 年公司达成股东回馈15 亿美元指引目标，其中股息回馈3.5 亿/回购回馈11.4 亿，全年股东回馈金 额约为公司2026 年2 月3 日市值的8%。公司指引26 年回馈15 亿美元，1Q26 提升季度每股现金股息21% 至0.29 美元，1H26 计划于美国/香港合计回购约4 ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：刘越男/宋小寒 运营效率提升，利润率持续优化。2025Q4 公司餐厅利润率13.0%/同比+0.7pct，主要得益于食品及包装 物、物业租金及其他经营开支的减少。其中2025Q4 肯德基餐厅利润率14.0%/同比+0.7pct，主要得益于 运营精简和有利的原材料价格，但部分被外卖占比提升而增加的骑手成本以及低个位数水平的工资成本 上涨所抵消。必胜客餐厅利润率9.9%/同比+0.6pct，主要由于运营精简以及自动化和有利的原材料价 格，部分被因外卖销售占比提升而增加的成本以及高性价比产品所抵销。 本报告导读： 风险提示：开店不及预期，同店大幅下滑，消费需求疲软，行业竞争加剧。 投资建议:维持增持评级。预测 2026-2028 年归母净利润分别为10.05/10.62/11.43 亿美元；考虑公司高股 东回报，预测2026-2028 年EPS 分别为2.91/3.21/3.56 美元，参考可比公司估值，考虑公司作为餐饮龙 头，给予2026 年高于行业平均的22 倍PE，给予目标价500.00港元（按照1 美元=7.81 港元折算），维持 增持评级。 业绩简述：2025Q4 收入28.2 ...

机构：光大证券 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到公司经营势头良好，经营效率持续提升，我们上调公司2026-2027 年归 母净利润预测分别至10.27/11.09 亿美元（分别上调2%/3%），新增2028 年归母净利润预测为11.83 亿美 元，折合2026-2028 年EPS 分别为2.90/3.13/3.34 美元。当前股价对应2026-2028 年PE 分别为 事件：25Q4 公司实现营收28.23 亿美元，同比+9%（或+7%，不计及外币换算影响）；实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元，同比+25%（或+23%，不计及外币换算影响）。 17x/16x/15x，公司为西式快餐龙头企业，具备较强的数字化和供应链能力，两大核心品牌在渠道下沉 方面仍具备一定增长空间，维持"买入"评级。 25Q4 同店销售额增长提速，开店节奏加快。门店经营方面，25Q4 系统销售额同比+7%（肯德基/必胜 客分别同比+8%/+6%），25Q4 同店销售额同比+3%（肯德基/必胜客分别同比+3%/+1%）。其中25Q4 肯德基同店交易量/客单价分别同比+3%/持平，客单价保持稳定主要系小额订单的增长被外卖占比的增 加所抵销，外卖订单客单 ...

事件： 25Q4公司实现营收28.23亿美元，同比+9%（或+7%，不计及外币换算影响）；实现经营利润1.87亿美 元，同比+25%（或+23%，不计及外币换算影响）。 25Q4同店销售额增长提速，开店节奏加快 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 25年新业务取得积极进展：1）肯悦咖啡：25年末公司肯悦咖啡门店总数已达2200家，为其所属的肯德基 门店带来了中个位数的销售额增长。2）KPRO：主打健康轻食的KPRO于25年新增200多家门店，总数突 破200家，为所属肯德基门店带来两位数销售额增长，公司计划26年门店数超过400家。3）WOW：必胜 客WOW门店全年助力品牌进入100多个新城市，25年末总数进一步扩张，有效助力品牌渗透低线市场。 4）双子星店：肯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (or 7% excluding foreign currency effects), and operating profit of $187 million, up 25% (or 23% excluding foreign currency effects) [5][6] - Same-store sales growth accelerated in Q4 2025, with system sales up 7% year-on-year, and same-store sales up 3% [6] - The company plans to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with a net addition of over 1,900 stores, accelerating from 2025 [7] Revenue Performance - Q4 2025 same-store sales growth was driven by KFC and Pizza Hut, with KFC's same-store sales up 3% and Pizza Hut's up 1% [6] - The company expects continued growth in same-store revenue and system sales in 2026, projecting high single-digit growth [6] Store Expansion - In Q4 2025, the company added 587 new stores, bringing the total to 18,101 [7] - The company achieved a net addition of 1,706 stores in 2025, meeting its target of 1,600-1,800 new stores [7] Profitability Improvement - Q4 2025 restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The core operating profit for Q4 2025 was $185 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by operational efficiency and favorable commodity prices [8] New Business Developments - The company made significant progress in new business initiatives, including the expansion of KFC Coffee and KPRO, which contributed to sales growth [9] - New product offerings, such as KFC's spicy chicken and Pizza Hut's handmade thin-crust pizza, attracted younger consumers and drove sales [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively, with an EPS of $2.90 for 2026 [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2026, indicating strong growth potential for the leading Western fast-food company [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Same-store sales continue to show positive growth, with KFC's transaction average stabilizing [2] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target price set at 500.00 HKD based on a 22x PE for 2026 [10] - The company is experiencing an increase in delivery sales, which now account for 53% of total sales, up from 51% in the previous quarter [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,303 million USD in 2024 to 14,137 million USD in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 911 million USD in 2024 to 1,143 million USD in 2028, with a notable increase of 10.2% in 2024 [4] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 19.02 in 2025 to 14.32 in 2028, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.823 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was 187 million USD, up 25% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 6.6% [10] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [10] Profitability Metrics - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [10] - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 14.0%, while Pizza Hut's was 9.9%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [10]

展望2026年，公司目标：门店总数超20,000家，即净新增门店超1,900家。肯德基和必胜客净新增门店中 加盟店的占比均达到40%-50%。资本支出约在6亿至7亿美元之间。向股东回馈15亿美元。 2025年，系统销售额同比增长4%，不计及外币换算影响。同店销售额同比增长1%。总收入同比增长4% 至118亿美元，不计及外币换算影响同样增长4%。经营利润同比增长11%至13亿美元。核心经营利润同 样增长11%。净利润为9.29亿美元，同比增长2%。每股摊薄盈利同比增长8%至2.51美元。 百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容女士表示："我们第四季度的业绩表现为2025年画上了圆满句号。衷心感谢 团队的付出与努力，公司同店销售额连续第三个季度实现增长，同店交易量也连续第十二个季度实现增 长。第四季度系统销售额进一步提升至7%，经营利润同比增长25%。肯德基通过肯悦咖啡和KPRO肩并 肩模式，解锁了新消费场景。必胜客也增强了其性价比，并通过WOW门店模式，成功拓展到此前尚未 覆盖的地区，尤其是低线城市。" 屈女士总结道："展望未来，我们将通过自营与加盟相结合的经营模式，稳步迈向2026年门店总数超两 万家的目标，并计划于203 ...