连锁餐饮的规模化竞赛正在持续。 在近期举办的投资者日上，百胜中国首次喊出了2030年开出3万店的规模目标，标志着这家中国规模最 大的连锁餐饮集团正式进入前所未有的加速扩张周期。 百胜中国为3万店的目标给出了明确的任务分配。 到2026年完成此前既有的2万家目标，到2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家，其中肯德基增长三分之一 至超过1.7万家，必胜客突破6千家。 首席执行官屈翠容表示："从1987年到2020年，我们用了33年时间开设第一家门店，接下来力争在2026 年实现门店数量翻倍，并在之后四年内突破3万家。" 同一时间，百胜中国还给出了更高的利润及股东回报承诺。 肯德基目标在2028年成为中国首家经营利润超100亿人民币的餐饮连锁品牌。必胜客2029年的经营利润 将较2024年翻一倍。 过去一段时间的价格竞争背景下，百胜中国成功实现了系统销售、同店及经营利润的共同扩张。 当门店规模再上新台阶，它能否继续维持这种精妙的平衡，将成为对其运营能力的真正考验，市场将拭 目以待。 增量从何来 结构上，大部分增量将由肯德基贡献，小部分来自必胜客，未来三年的合计开店量预估在6千家以上； Lavazza及其他品牌也在同 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yum China launched its "RGM 3.0" strategy on November 17, 2023, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, driven by innovation and efficiency [1] Group 1: Growth Targets - The company aims for same-store sales index growth of 100-102 from 2026 to 2028, with system sales achieving mid to high single-digit CAGR [1] - Operating profit is targeted to achieve high single-digit CAGR, with KFC aiming for over 10 billion yuan in operating profit by 2028 and Pizza Hut planning to double its operating profit by 2029 compared to 2024 [1] - Diluted earnings per share and free cash flow per share are expected to achieve double-digit CAGR [1] - Capital expenditure is projected at an average of 600-700 million USD per year from 2026 to 2028, based on a cautious assumption of the macro consumption environment [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company plans to exceed 30,000 total stores by 2030, with specific targets of 20,000 by 2026 and over 25,000 by 2028 [2] - KFC aims to surpass 17,000 stores by 2028, while Pizza Hut plans to exceed 6,000 stores by the same year [2] Group 3: Franchise Model - The company plans to open over 3,000 new franchise stores from 2026 to 2028, with franchise stores accounting for 40%-50% of net new KFC and Pizza Hut stores [3] - The share of system sales from franchise operations is expected to rise from 9%-10% in 2025 to mid-double digits by 2028 [3] - Operating profit margin is projected to increase to at least 11.5% by 2028, with restaurant profit margins expected to be no less than 16.7% [3] Group 4: New Business Development - New businesses like KFC Coffee and KPRO are growing rapidly, with KFC Coffee expected to exceed 5,000 stores by 2029 [4] - Lavazza Coffee aims to reach 1,000 stores and achieve 60 million USD in retail sales by 2029 [4] - The company plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual shareholder returns of about 900-1,000 million USD in 2027 and 2028 [4] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.63 billion, 12.16 billion, and 12.76 billion USD, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.6%, and 4.9% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 910 million, 1.03 billion, and 1.13 billion USD, with growth rates of 0.0%, 12.8%, and 10.2% respectively [4] - The company maintains a target price of 423.2 HKD per share, corresponding to a 22x PE ratio for 2025, with a reasonable market capitalization target of 155.7 billion HKD [4]

百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容。 （百胜中国供图） 【深圳商报讯】（首席记者 刘琼）11月17日，百胜中国控股有限公司在深圳举办了2025年投资者日活动。在 活动中，百胜中国公布了新的增长目标：公司正在稳步推进2026年门店总数达2万家的目标；2028年门店总数 增加至超过2.5万家；到2030年门店总数力争突破3万家。 百胜中国在投资者日上公布RGM 3.0战略。百胜中国表示，中国餐饮市场仍有巨大机会：百胜中国目前仅服 务了约1/3的中国消费者，未来希望能将该比例提升至约一半；中国连锁餐厅的渗透率仍然较低，仅约20%， 而在美国等发达国家，该数字超过50%。 在回馈股东方面，屈翠容表示，公司计划自2027年起，将约100%的自由现金流，扣除支付给子公司少数股东 的股息后回馈给股东。面对未来巨大的增长机遇，百胜中国对实现各项目标和为股东持续创造价值充满信 心。 新兴业务中，肯悦咖啡和KPRO通过肩并肩模式，与肯德基共享店内资源与会员计划，增速超出预期：肯悦 咖啡已经超过1800家，预计2029年将超过5000家；主攻轻食市场的KPRO一年内在20多个城市开出超100家， 预计5年内可至千店规模。 "尽管公司规模已经 ...

具体到品牌，到2028年，肯德基门店总数将增加约三分之一至1.7万多家，经营利润力争突破人民币100 亿元，目标是成为国内首个跨过该里程碑的餐饮品牌；未来3年，必胜客计划每年净新增超过600家门 店，到2028年门店总数跨过6000家大关，2029年的经营利润将较2024年翻一番，实现"五年内再造一个 必胜客"的目标。 【深圳商报讯】（首席记者 刘琼）11月17日，百胜中国控股有限公司在深圳举办了2025年投资者日活 动。在活动中，百胜中国公布了新的增长目标：公司正在稳步推进2026年门店总数达2万家的目标； 2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家；到2030年门店总数力争突破3万家。 "尽管公司规模已经相当庞大，门店扩张仍在加速。"百胜中国首席执行官屈翠容表示，"从1987年到 2020年，我们用33年的时间开设了一万家门店。2020年至2026年，力争6年内实现门店数量翻倍，并在 之后4年内，于2030年突破3万家门店。" 新兴业务中，肯悦咖啡和KPRO通过肩并肩模式，与肯德基共享店内资源与会员计划，增速超出预期： 肯悦咖啡已经超过1800家，预计2029年将超过5000家；主攻轻食市场的KPRO一年内在 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maximizing the value of every part of a chicken in the restaurant industry, particularly for companies like Yum China, which operates KFC and Pizza Hut [3][20][43] - Yum China's strategy focuses on maintaining competitive pricing while enhancing supply chain efficiency and product innovation, allowing the company to thrive in a competitive market [8][10][18] Group 1: Company Strategy - Yum China's CEO, Joey Wat, highlighted that since 2016, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has risen by 13%, yet the company has not passed these costs onto consumers, focusing instead on value for money [8] - The company employs a strategy called "拼出一只鸡" (拼出一只鸡), which emphasizes flexible procurement and a diverse supplier base to enhance supply chain efficiency [10] - Yum China has introduced over 1,600 innovative or upgraded products in the past three years, with more than 100 products generating annual sales exceeding 100 million [24] Group 2: Market Potential - The article notes that China's restaurant chain penetration is only about 20%, significantly lower than over 50% in mature markets, indicating substantial growth potential [16] - By 2030, the frequency of dining out in China is expected to increase from 3.5 times to 5.5 times per week, suggesting a rising consumer demand [16] - Yum China's growth strategy includes expanding its brand portfolio to cover a larger portion of the population, aiming to increase its customer base from one-third to one-half of China's population [34][42] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company has streamlined its supply chain by eliminating unnecessary complexities, allowing for a more efficient use of resources and better product innovation [23][26] - The role of Restaurant General Managers (RGM) is crucial in connecting the operational front with the underlying supply chain and innovation processes, ensuring effective execution of strategies [30][31] - Yum China's focus on digital infrastructure and AI technologies has reduced trial and error costs, enabling more efficient store operations and better inventory management [26] Group 4: Future Goals - Yum China aims to have over 17,000 KFC outlets by 2028, with a projected operating profit exceeding 10 billion yuan [37][43] - The company plans to double the operating profit of Pizza Hut by 2029 compared to 2024, with a target of over 6,000 Pizza Hut locations by 2028 [39][43] - The multi-brand strategy is designed to create layered offerings that cater to different consumer needs, enhancing market penetration and brand reach [42]

Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $3.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 4% year-over-year increase excluding foreign currency effects, while adjusted net profit was $282 million, reflecting a 5% decline year-over-year due to investment income drag [1] Store Expansion - The company experienced rapid store growth, adding 536 new stores in Q3 2025, with franchises accounting for 32% of the new openings [1] - By brand, KFC added 402 new stores, marking a historical high for Q3, with franchises making up 41% of these additions; Pizza Hut added 158 new stores, with franchises at 28% [1] - As of the end of Q3, the total number of stores reached 17,514, including 12,640 KFC stores, 4,022 Pizza Hut stores, and over 1,800 KPRO coffee shops [1] Sales Performance - System sales increased by 4% year-over-year, driven by a 4% increase in new store openings and a 1% rise in same-store sales [2] - KFC's system sales grew by 5%, with same-store sales up by 2%, primarily due to a 3% increase in same-store transaction volume, despite a 1% decline in average ticket size [2] - Pizza Hut's system sales rose by 4%, with same-store sales increasing by 1%, supported by a 17% rise in same-store transaction volume, while average ticket size fell by 13% due to strategic adjustments for better value [2] - Overall, delivery sales for both KFC and Pizza Hut saw significant growth, increasing by 33% and 27% respectively, with delivery now accounting for 51% of restaurant revenue [2] Profitability - Profit margins for both KFC and Pizza Hut improved in Q3, with KFC's operating profit margin rising to 16% and restaurant profit margin to 18.5% [3] - For Pizza Hut, operating profit margin reached 8.9% and restaurant profit margin 13.4%, benefiting from improved operational efficiency and lower raw material costs, although increased delivery costs and a focus on value products partially offset these gains [3] - The company's overall operating profit margin and restaurant profit margin increased by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points to 12.5% and 17.3% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high store opening pace, projecting 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, which is anticipated to drive continued revenue growth [4] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are $928 million, $1.012 billion, and $1.088 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [4]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 百胜中国-S Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) 2025 投资者日：创新与提效双轮驱动，目标 2030 年门店超 3 万家 2025 Investor Day: Driving Growth Through Innovation and Efficiency, Targeting Over 30000 Stores by 2030 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$361.00 目标价 HK$423.20 HTI ESG 4.7-4.6-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$129.69bn / US$16.69bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$29.51mn 发行股票数目 361.42mn 自由流通股 (%) 96% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$ ...

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. has set ambitious growth targets, aiming to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, over 25,000 by 2028, and over 30,000 by 2030 [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, driving sales growth, and enhancing profitability through various strategic initiatives [1][3] Store Expansion Goals - The company plans to double its store count from 10,000 to 20,000 within six years, a significant acceleration compared to the previous 33 years to reach the first 10,000 [1] - KFC aims to increase its store count to over 17,000 by 2028, with a target operating profit exceeding RMB 10 billion [1] - Pizza Hut plans to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, targeting over 6,000 stores by 2028 [1] Emerging Business Models - New business models like KFC Coffee and KPRO are expected to exceed growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 locations by 2029 [2] - Pizza Hut's WOW model focuses on "everyday low prices," reducing single-store investment by nearly 50% and expanding into lower-tier cities [2] - Lavazza Coffee is set to expand significantly, aiming for over 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [2] Market Opportunities - The company sees significant opportunities in the Chinese market, currently serving about one-third of consumers, with a goal to increase this to about half [3] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in China is only about 20%, compared to over 50% in developed countries like the U.S. [3] Strategic Framework - Yum China has introduced the RGM 3.0 strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with an emphasis on innovation and efficiency [3][4] - The company is leveraging resource sharing and integration across its brands to create stronger synergies [4] Commitment to Shareholders - The company plans to return approximately 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, after paying dividends to minority shareholders [4][5] - Yum China expresses confidence in achieving its growth targets and continuing to create value for shareholders [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of $3.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% excluding foreign exchange effects, while adjusted net profit was $282 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5% excluding foreign exchange effects. The decline in profit was mainly due to investment income drag [2][6]. - The company is expected to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, maintaining a high store opening pace, which is anticipated to drive continued revenue growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced revenue growth and an increase in profit margins during the reporting period, although profit declined primarily due to investment income [2][6]. - The system sales increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by a 4% increase in net new stores and a 1% increase in same-store sales [10]. Store Expansion - In Q3 2025, the company added 536 new stores, with franchises accounting for 32% of the new openings. By the end of Q3, the total number of stores reached 17,514, including 12,640 KFC stores and 4,022 Pizza Hut stores [10]. - KFC achieved a record high of 402 new stores in Q3, with franchises making up 41% of the new openings [10]. Sales Performance - Both KFC and Pizza Hut saw year-on-year growth in same-store sales, with KFC's same-store sales increasing by 2% and Pizza Hut's by 1%. The overall transaction volume for the company increased by 4% year-on-year [10]. - The company’s overall takeaway sales accounted for 51% of restaurant revenue, with significant growth in takeaway sales for both KFC and Pizza Hut [10]. Profit Margins - The profit margins for both KFC and Pizza Hut improved, with KFC's operating profit margin increasing to 16% and Pizza Hut's to 8.9% [10]. - The overall operating profit margin for the company increased by 0.4 percentage points to 12.5% year-on-year [10]. Future Outlook - The company’s core competitive advantages in digitalization, backend operations, localization, and brand strength are expected to ensure stable performance for its mature brands [10]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are $928 million, $1.012 billion, and $1.088 billion, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [10].

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 operating performance with revenue of $3.206 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and adjusted net profit of $282 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1] - Same-store and restaurant profit margins continued to show strong performance, with rapid store openings; KFC's store opening speed reached a historical high by Q3 this year, and Pizza Hut surpassed 4,000 stores [1][2] - The company is steadily advancing shareholder returns and model iteration, enhancing core brand competitiveness [1][3] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 system sales increased by 4% year-on-year, driven by a 4% net new store contribution and same-store sales growth [1] - Same-store sales grew by 1%, with same-store transaction volume increasing by 4%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of growth [1] - Core operating profit reached $399 million, up 8% year-on-year, with a core operating profit margin of 12.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Restaurant Performance - Restaurant profit margin was 17.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced costs in food, packaging, rent, and other operating expenses [2] - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 18.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, while Pizza Hut's was 13.4%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] - Delivery sales increased by 32% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of restaurant revenue, with digital order revenue making up 95% [2] Store Expansion - The company maintained a rapid store expansion pace, with a net addition of 536 stores in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [2] - KFC's store opening speed reached a historical high, and the company exceeded its original plan with over 1,800 K Coffee stores [2] - The KPRO brand, focusing on energy bowls and superfood smoothies, has opened over 100 locations in high-tier cities [2] Membership and Sales - The combined membership for KFC and Pizza Hut reached approximately 575 million, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2] - Membership sales accounted for 57% of the total system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with franchise stores expected to account for 40%-50% of KFC's and 20%-30% of Pizza Hut's new stores [3] - Capital expenditure for the 2025 fiscal year is projected to be between $600 million and $700 million, with stable expectations for shareholder returns [3] - The company anticipates achieving net profits of $928 million, $1.002 billion, and $1.071 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 17X, 16X, and 15X respectively [3]