编者按 在制药界，人们用"10年10亿美元"来形容做成一款原研创新药需要付出的成本，AI正在改变这一 切。 任峰透露，通过传统的药物研发方式，做出一款有资格接受人体临床试验评估的"临床前候选化合 物"（PCC）需要合成数百到两千个分子，在英矽智能，只需要合成数十到两百个分子就够了，试 错成本降低到十分之一；传统制药方式找到PCC需要两年半到四年半，英矽智能只需要9到18个 月，时间缩短到三分之一；传统制药方式找到PCC需要耗资上千万美元，英矽智能只需要200万美 元—300万美元，成本降低到五分之一。 在制药界，人们用"10年10亿美元"来形容做成一款原研创新 药需要付出的成本，AI正在改变这一切。 作者： 张铃 封图：图虫创意 2025年，创新药已成为最具活力与突破性的产业领域之一，也掀起了股市投资热潮。在这股 浪潮之中，一批中国药企正悄然转身——它们不再满足于快速跟进，而是勇敢挺进前沿领域， 探索原创研发的深水区。我们试图探寻，这些企业如何在全球竞合、资本起伏与政策引导的复 杂生态中淬炼核心竞争力，走出一条属于中国的创新突围之路。 2025年，明星AI制药公司英矽智能忙着做两件事，一是推进临床管线，在达成 ...

编者按： 2025年，创新药已成为最具活力与突破性的产业领域之一，也掀起了股市投资热潮。在这股浪潮之中，一批中国药企正悄然转身——它们不再满足于快速跟 进，而是勇敢挺进前沿领域，探索原创研发的深水区。我们试图探寻，这些企业如何在全球竞合、资本起伏与政策引导的复杂生态中淬炼核心竞争力，走出 一条属于中国的创新突围之路。 经济观察报 记者 张铃 2025年，明星AI制药公司英矽智能忙着做两件事，一是推进临床管线，在达成全球首个临床阶段药效概念性验证后，进一步验证AI平台跨领域、跨学科的 赋能效应；二是加大BD（商务拓展）力度，希望做出数量更多、范围更广的商业合作，将商业模式打通。 "现在，AI制药到了从技术突破到临床应用的阶段了。"英矽智能联合首席执行官兼首席科学官任峰对经济观察报说。 任峰是拥有近20年经验的药物开发老兵，曾先后在国际制药巨头葛兰素史克和知名合同研究组织（CRO）美迪西（688202.SH）任职。对他来说，从传统制 药到AI制药的赛道转变让梦想近在咫尺：AI提高了药物开发的创新性和创造性，同时大大加快了研发速度。 在制药界，人们用"10年10亿美元"来形容做成一款原研创新药需要付出的成本，AI正 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the rapid evolution of the AI industry in Pudong, showcasing advancements in humanoid robots, AI drugs, and vertical models that empower various industries [1][2]. - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference highlighted Pudong's AI industry development, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics achieving significant milestones, including the mass production of humanoid robots [1][2]. - Zhiyuan Robotics launched its versatile exploration robot Lingxi X2 and introduced the "Zhiyuan Qiyuan" general embodiment model at the conference, marking a significant step in humanoid robotics [1]. Group 2 - Pudong is recognized as a fertile ground for innovation and entrepreneurship in the field of embodied intelligence, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics and Yingsi Intelligence making notable progress [2]. - Yingsi Intelligence reported a revenue of 350 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 108%, and has ten clinical pipelines, including the AI drug Rentosertib, which is the fastest progressing AI drug globally [2]. - The Pudong Moli Community has been instrumental in fostering innovation by focusing on embodied intelligence, scientific intelligence, and application intelligence, creating a unique ecosystem for entrepreneurs [3].

Core Insights - The core advantage of AI in pharmaceuticals is speed, significantly accelerating the discovery-validation-optimization cycle [3] - AI pharmaceutical collaborations and investments have surged, indicating a milestone in innovative drug development [3][4] - Despite advancements, AI pharmaceuticals face commercialization challenges that require time to resolve [3] Group 1: Industry Collaborations and Investments - Recent large-scale collaborations in the AI pharmaceutical sector include an $8.12 billion deal between Novo Nordisk and Deep Apple Therapeutics, a $6.5 billion agreement between Eli Lilly and Juvena Therapeutics, and a partnership worth up to $5.45 billion between Formation Bio and Sanofi [4] - Domestic collaborations are also accelerating, exemplified by HanYue Pharmaceutical's agreement with Carbon Cloud Peptide to develop innovative peptide drugs using AI technology [5] - The influx of nearly $10 billion into the AI pharmaceutical industry within a month highlights the sector's growing importance [4] Group 2: Market Growth and Development - The AI pharmaceutical market in China is rapidly expanding, with a projected growth from 0.07 billion yuan in 2019 to 0.73 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.8% [9] - The market is expected to grow from 1.21 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.86 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 68.3% [9] - Companies like Zhenhua Tianqing and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical are leveraging AI to enhance drug development processes, demonstrating significant advancements in the industry [9][10] Group 3: Technological Advancements - AI technology is increasingly integrated into the entire drug manufacturing chain, improving efficiency and reducing costs [10] - For instance, Shiyao Group's AI platform has reduced early drug discovery time by over 30% and cut development costs by nearly half [10] - AI's role in clinical trials is also evolving, with companies like Kanglong Chemical utilizing AI to optimize patient recruitment and data monitoring, significantly enhancing trial efficiency [10] Group 4: Commercialization Challenges - Despite rapid growth, AI pharmaceutical companies like InSilico Medicine and JingTai Technology continue to face profitability challenges, with significant net losses reported [11] - AI drugs have not yet reached the market, and their commercial value remains uncertain, as many are still in clinical trial phases [11] - The industry is grappling with data quality issues, which hinder AI model training and effectiveness, particularly in rare diseases and new target research [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that drug molecular design is transitioning from "probabilistic collisions" to "atomic-level precision engineering," ushering in a faster, more accurate, and smarter era of molecular design [1][2] - AI-driven drug discovery has made significant advancements, with Chai Discovery's AI model Chai-2 achieving a historic success rate of 16% in "de novo" antibody design, which is over 100 times more effective than previous methods [1][2] - The success of Chai-2 is attributed to its multimodal generative architecture, which integrates full-atom structure prediction and generative models, addressing the low success rates of traditional methods that often rely on extensive experimental screening [1] Group 2 - Despite the advancements, AI-discovered drugs entering late-stage clinical trials remain limited, primarily due to the early development stage of AI in drug discovery and the presence of misleading claims about AI capabilities [2] - A recent study published in Nature Medicine highlights a significant milestone, showing that an AI-discovered drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis demonstrated safety and efficacy in a randomized phase II clinical trial [2][3] - The AI-powered drug Rentosertib, developed by Insilico Medicine, showed good safety and tolerability, with dose-dependent efficacy observed in patients, marking a successful demonstration of the company's generative AI platform [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant progress of AI-driven drug Rentosertib, which has shown promising results in clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, marking a potential breakthrough in AI drug development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The 2a phase clinical trial of Rentosertib demonstrated a mean increase in forced vital capacity (FVC) of 98.4 milliliters for patients, while the control group experienced a decrease of 20.3 milliliters, indicating a substantial improvement in lung function [6][8]. - The trial involved 71 patients across 22 research centers in China, with various treatment regimens, confirming the drug's potential to reverse disease progression [7][8]. - Rentosertib is the first AI drug to achieve conceptual validation, with plans to advance to phase 3 clinical trials in China [4][5]. Group 2: Drug Development Process - The discovery of Rentosertib involved AI-driven data mining and analysis, identifying TNIK as a novel target, which is linked to various diseases beyond pulmonary fibrosis [12][14]. - The company utilized its AI platform, PadnaOmics, to generate a list of 20 potential drug targets, with TNIK being prioritized based on novelty and druggability [13]. - The AI-generated candidate, Rentosertib, is positioned to be the first clinical TNIK inhibitor if approved [12][13]. Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The AI drug development sector faces challenges, including funding constraints and the high failure rate of new drug approvals, with current success rates around 7.5% [16][22]. - Despite the promising results of Rentosertib, the company must navigate the complexities of clinical trials and regulatory approvals, particularly in the U.S. market, where competition is fierce [21][22]. - The company has raised approximately $123 million in its latest funding round, which will support further development and innovation in its drug pipeline [20][21].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant progress made by Insilico Medicine with its AI-driven drug Rentosertib, which has shown promising results in a Phase 2a clinical trial for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients, indicating a potential reversal of the disease [1][3][4] - The company plans to communicate with Chinese drug regulatory authorities to advance to Phase 3 clinical trials, marking a crucial milestone in AI drug development [1][4] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - Rentosertib demonstrated a mean increase in forced vital capacity (FVC) of 98.4 milliliters in patients, while the control group experienced a decrease of 20.3 milliliters, indicating a significant positive effect of the drug [3][4] - The trial involved 71 IPF patients across 22 research centers in China, with results showing controlled safety and good tolerability, alongside potential disease reversal [4][12] Group 2: Future Prospects - If successful, Rentosertib could be the first AI-enabled drug approved, with potential approval expected in approximately 2.5 years, around 2028 [2][12] - Insilico Medicine has over 30 research pipelines, with 10 projects already approved for clinical trials, indicating a robust development strategy [13][17] Group 3: AI Drug Development Landscape - The article discusses the challenges faced by the AI drug development industry, including funding issues and the need for successful clinical outcomes to regain investor confidence [12][18] - Insilico's approach to drug discovery, utilizing AI for target identification and compound design, represents a shift in traditional drug development methodologies [10][11] Group 4: Financial Aspects - Insilico recently completed a financing round totaling approximately $123 million, which will be used for AI platform upgrades and drug development innovations [16][17] - The company has raised a total of about $530 million across eight financing rounds, which is relatively modest compared to other AI drug companies [17][18]

Market Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index increased by 1.40%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.28 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sub-industries [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index rose by 8.84%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 8.55 percentage points [3] Company R&D Progress Tracking - Recent clinical application submissions include BG-C9074 from BeiGene and AK131 from CanSino Biologics, as well as IND applications for HRS-4729, HRS-6093, and HRS-7172 from HengRui Medicine [4] - Ongoing clinical trials include the Phase III trials for the 611 anti-IL4Rα antibody from 3SBio and bosakitug from Zhengda Tianqing, as well as Phase II trials for mesutoclax from Innovent Biologics and Phase I trials for HW201877 from Renfu Pharmaceutical [4] Weekly Insights - The acceleration of AI technology application and product innovation in the pharmaceutical sector is noteworthy, with significant developments in AI drug discovery [5] - The AI drug Rentosertib, developed by Insilico Medicine, has shown rapid progress, with its Phase IIa clinical study results published in Nature Medicine [5] - A strategic R&D collaboration between CSPC Pharmaceutical and AstraZeneca aims to leverage AI for discovering new oral small molecule candidates, indicating a trend of Chinese pharmaceutical companies engaging in global innovation through AI platforms [5] AI Technology in Healthcare - AI applications are expanding in medical large models, medical imaging, and diagnostics, with notable products like the "YuanZhi" medical large model from United Imaging, the "RuiYing AI+" solution from Mindray, and the DNBSEQ-E25Flash semiconductor sequencer from BGI [6] - The continuous evolution of AI is expected to address human limitations in healthcare, enhancing precision, efficiency, and accessibility [6] 2025 Annual Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a structural selection of opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, considering demographic changes, policy frameworks, and economic conditions [7] - Key focus areas include hospital payment support for innovative drugs and devices, expanding consumer demand for blood products and home medical devices, and the upward cycle of overseas payments for heparin and respiratory joint inspections [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of AI technology implementation and product innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in AI-driven medical applications. It suggests focusing on AI-related medical stocks [2][3]. - Recent advancements in AI drug development, such as the breakthrough of Rentosertib by Insilico Medicine, are noted, with expectations for more Chinese pharmaceutical companies to engage in global innovation through AI platforms [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of payment perspectives in investment strategies, identifying three key payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments, with specific recommendations for companies like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray), and 联影医疗 (United Imaging) [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.40%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.28 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sub-industries [1][17]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 8.84%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 8.55 percentage points [1][17]. Company Announcements - Recent clinical application updates include 百济神州 (BeiGene) and 康方生物 (CanSino Biologics) with new IND applications, and ongoing clinical trials for several drugs from 三生国健 (3SBio) and 正大天晴 (Zhengda Tianqing) [28]. R&D Progress - Notable advancements in clinical trials include the initiation of new applications for drugs by 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and ongoing phases for various drugs from 三生国健 (3SBio) and 诺诚健华 (Innovent Biologics) [28][29]. Financial Forecasts and Valuations - Key company forecasts include: - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine): EPS forecasted at 1.07 CNY for 2025, with a PE ratio of 51, rated as "Accumulate" [5]. - 鱼跃医疗 (Yuyue Medical): EPS forecasted at 2.32 CNY for 2025, with a PE ratio of 15, rated as "Buy" [5]. - 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray): EPS forecasted at 10.62 CNY for 2025, with a PE ratio of 22, rated as "Buy" [5]. - 联影医疗 (United Imaging): EPS forecasted at 2.39 CNY for 2025, with a PE ratio of 54, rated as "Buy" [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on areas such as hospital policy support, expanding public demand, and increasing overseas market cycles [24].

Financial Market Dynamics - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.4%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.07%, and ChiNext down by 0.19%, with trading volume shrinking to 1.09 trillion yuan. The logistics, beauty care, insurance, and liquor sectors performed poorly, but over 3,000 stocks rose, including a limit-up for Yuzhisanxia A [1] - COMEX gold futures fell below $3,200 per ounce, marking a four-month low, with technical support seen at $3,140-$3,150, indicating a continued bearish trend [1] Policy and Economic - The first home down payment ratio in China has been reduced to 15%, and 25% for second homes, leading to a rebound in transaction volumes. In Nanjing, new home subscriptions in June increased by 29.8% month-on-month, and second-hand home transactions reached a year-to-date high, showing signs of price stabilization [5] - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, is set to reassess its monetary policy framework, potentially moving away from the average inflation targeting approach to a more flexible strategy [6] - The U.S. and China have paused some tariff increases, with 24% tariffs suspended for 90 days and remaining tariffs reduced to 10%. China has refused to lift rare earth export controls, and the U.S. attempts to exchange tariff reductions for rare earth concessions have not succeeded [8] Industry and Company Dynamics - Starbucks is considering selling its business in China due to competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee, and is evaluating the sale of part of its stake to address the pressure [9] - AI pharmaceutical company Insilico Medicine has submitted its third IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its AI-generated drug Rentosertib completing phase II clinical trials but accumulating losses exceeding $450 million [11] - The CEO of Novo Nordisk has resigned due to declining competitiveness in the obesity drug market, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound prescriptions surpassing its Wegovy [12] - Hungary's battery industry has faced a significant downturn, with production plummeting by 41% year-on-year, as government-led green transitions have failed to boost the economy [13] - Canadian oil exports to China have surged, with daily imports reaching 207,000 barrels, significantly exceeding historical levels, driven by tensions in U.S.-Canada relations [13] Company Announcements and Events - Tai Ling Microelectronics has reduced its stake by 2% to 6.95% as part of a divestment by the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [14] - A fatal accident occurred at the Mengjin coal mine, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dayou Energy, leading to a production halt for investigation [15] - Haixing Electric Power has established an industrial fund with an investment of 400 million yuan to focus on new energy and IoT sectors [16]